First up, I should note that elections will be held for two seats in Tasmania’s state upper house today (UPDATE: Make that three), as part of the 15-seat chamber’s cycle of annual periodical elections. Read Kevin Bonham’s rolling posts on the subject, for the electorate of Montgomery here and Pembroke here (UPDATE: and Nelson here), and you’ll be a lot better informed about it than I am. Nonetheless, I will make a probably half-hearted effort to live blog the results from 6pm this evening. Second up, a good word for the latest episode of the Seat du Jour series, which today covers the famous outer Sydney seat of Lindsay.
Now to business. The misadventures of sundry candidates are making it a constant challenge for me to keep my federal election guide up to date. The tally of candidates who will remain on the ballot paper despite having “withdrawn” to head off embarrassment for their parties now sits at six – although there is nothing to stop any candidate on the ballot paper winning election and taking their seat. Indeed, the two Senate candidates could theoretically win on recounts if the lead candidates end up being disqualified under some or other provision of Section 44 (or, in the case of One Nation candidate Malcolm Roberts in Queensland, re-disqualified). In turn:
• The second candidate on Labor’s Northern Territory Senate ticket, Wayne Kurnorth, was found to have shared anti-Semitic videos on Facebook in 2015, one of which featured popular British conspiracy theorist David Icke’s thesis that the world is run by shape-shifting Jewish lizards. Shorten overreached in distancing himself from Kurnorth, asserting he had never met him, a claim belied by a photo of the two that shortly emerged.
• Another “zombie” Senate candidate is Steve Dickson, who is placed second on One Nation’s ticket in Queensland. Dickson held the state seat of Buderim for One Nation for most of 2017, having previously been a Liberal National Party member since 2012. His troubles arose earlier this week when footage emerged of him offering poetic musings on the art of love while in a strip club, specifically relating to the deficiencies in that field of “Asian chicks”. This revelation for some reason reduced Pauline Hanson to tears during one of her daily appearances on commercial network television on Wednesday.
• Labor’s candidate for Melbourne, Luke Creasey, withdrew yesterday, two days after a report appeared in The Australian regarding his social media activity in 2012, at which time he was a 22-year-old university student. The most publicisied of Creasey’s infractions was to click “like” on what those who know their way around social media would recognise as a “psycho girlfriend meme”, in this case involving a joke about false rape allegations. He at first offered only an apology for what he acknowledged was “stupid, immature” behaviour, but a divide reportedly opened within the party between Creasey’s own Left faction, which wanted him to tough it out, and some on the Right, who insisted he be dumped. Importantly, The Australian reports the latter included Noah Carroll and Sam Rae, respectively the party’s national and state secretaries.
• Isaacs candidate Jeremy Hearn was one of two Liberals to announce his withdrawal on Wednesday, after it emerged he had written a number of comments on Facebook to the effect that the Muslim community wished to overthrow the Australian government and institute sharia law.
• Also pulling the plug on Wednesday was the Liberal candidate for Wills, Peter Killin, who wrote on a Christian conservative forum in 2016 that its readers should have participated in the Liberal preselection in Goldstein, as their doing so would have ensured the defeat of a “homosexual MP”, Tim Wilson.
• Jessica Whelan withdrew as the Liberal candidate for Lyons yesterday over anti-Muslim posts on Facebook, although she says she will continue to campaign as an independent. Whelan’s problems began on Wednesday when The Mercury reported she had posted that Muslims should not be allowed to live in Australia, and that Donald Trump should deal with Muslim-sympathetic feminists by giving them clitoridectomies and selling them to Muslim countries. She initially responded that the screen shots were fabricated, and referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Scott Morrison’s position on Thursday was that this was good enough for him, although he appeared to go to some lengths to avoid getting too close to Whelan when the two appeared together at a pre-arranged promotional opportunity at an agricultural show. However, Whelan appeared to change her mind about both the views expressed and their having been fabricated when she announced her withdrawal yesterday, prompting Morrison to complain he had been lied to. The Liberals will now encourage supporters to vote for the Nationals candidate, Deanna Hutchinson.
Horse race latest:
• In his column in the News Corp tabloids today, David Speers relates that “hard heads” in the Liberal Party doubt they can win. As one such reportedly puts it: “If we had another three months, who knows”.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported on Thursday that Labor sources said the party was “losing its grip” in Coalition-held marginals in regional Queensland where it led early in the campaign.
• Jennifer Hewett of the Financial Review reported on Monday that Liberals were “increasingly optimistic about internal polling” in Flinders, where Greg Hunt was “no longer at real risk”. Elsewhere in Victoria, Deakin was “considered solid”, although Corangamite was “much less certain”. The only seats in Victoria the Liberals were giving away were Dunkley and Chisholm.
• Andrew Clark of the Financial Review reports Liberal polling in Wentworth shows them “in a winning position, though the numbers are extremely close”, while in Warringah, Zali Steggall’s campaign is spruiking a poll that has her leading on the primary vote, with Tony Abbott said to be stuck on around 40%.
• For the second time in the campaign, the Liberals have provided the media – in this case Matthew Denholm of The Australian – with polling conducted by TeleReach that shows Bill Shorten with poor personal ratings in northern Tasmania. The poll gives Shorten a 29% approval and 63% disapproval rating in Braddon (compared with 55% and 37% for Scott Morrison), 37% approval and 56% disapproval in Bass, and 37% approval and 50% disapproval in Lyons. However, as was the case last time, no voting intention numbers appear to have been provided.
Self-promotion corner:
If you’re interested in my take on the state of play in my home state of Western Australia, you can hear a shorter version of it on Monday’s edition of the ABC’s AM program, or a much longer one on The Conversation’s Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast. Then there are my two paywalled articles for Crikey this week, lest anyone be worried that I haven’t been keeping myself busy lately.
From yesterday, an account of the importance of the Chinese community at the election:
Labor won enduring loyalty among many Chinese voters after the Hawke government allowed students to stay in Australia after the Tiananmen Square massacre, and John Howard did lasting damage with his suggestion that Asian immigration should be curtailed during his first stint as leader in 1988. When Howard himself suffered his historic defeat in Bennelong in 2007, the result was widely attributed to the transformative effect of Chinese immigration on the once white middle-class electorate. Increasingly though, the rise of China’s middle class is bringing affluent new arrivals with economic priorities to match, together with a measure of cultural resistance to the broader community’s progressive turn on sex and gender issues.
And from Monday, on Clive Palmer’s preference deal with the Coalition:
If Palmer can get ahead of the third candidate on the Coalition’s ticket, who will have what remains after the first 28.6% is spent electing its top two candidates, a quarter of their vote will then flow to Palmer, if Coalition voters’ rate of adherence to the how-to-vote card in 2016 offers any guide. That could give him a decisive edge over Malcolm Roberts of One Nation, his main competition for a third seat likely to be won by parties of the right. But so far as the Liberals are concerned, the significance of the deal is in showing up what a dim view they must be taking of their prospects, and their readiness to grasp at any straw that happens to come within reach.
Well done to our Lord and Master for describng the Creasey post in the correct context, something completely absent from the majority of comments about it here and in the media. 🙂
Ven @ #146 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 10:46 am
What Labor loses with the franking credit changes they’ll more than cover with their middle-class childcare bribery.
a r @ #146 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 10:43 am
Shorten was very smart in moving towards the would be bully. The body language and speech showed that Morrison was trying to bully Shorten, but the movement towards ScoMo showed that Shorten would stand up to him, and the use of the Space Invaders term was belittling to ScoMo. Very good moves. And I think it was pre planned. I’m sure that ALP handlers have been studying ScoMo…
Re Luke Creasey: my political morality says that he shouldn’t have been dumped for the posts he had made in the past, but, in practical terms, Labor had to let him go because he was proving a huge distraction for the party and, let’s face it, he was highly unlikely to defeat Bandt anyway.
I don’t much like the concept that everything someone might have posted on Facebook as a silly young thing might be taken down and used against them in future. However, all the schoolteachers I know tell me that this is a major life lesson they try to drum into their pupils, as it is well known that one way that many employers screen potential employees is by checking out their online presence.
I guess that parties and would-be politicians are going to have to learn, and abide by, the new rules.
With the section 44 stuff and this, I guess the ideal political candidate in future will be someone who is an unemployed person with zero IT skills (so that they’ve never been online at all) and who is at least a third generation Australian on every branch of their family tree (as proven by ancestry.com).
A Saturday reflection.
It’s often said that in any particular group be it the Police,Doctors,Nurses there will be bad apples and that this just reflects wider society.
In my experience when it comes to the political classes they take the cake.
I have the feeling that if every PBer was to research Google over the last few years they should have no trouble finding several instances of bent politicians from Councillors through to Prime Ministers with either their snouts in the trough,failing the so called pub test,allegedly dealing in drugs,inappropriate dealings with the opposite sex,bullying,taking kick backs,or anything else that the rest of the population would find themselves in hot water about.
So maybe they really are just a reflection of society as a whole and we do get the politicians that we deserve because as Australians we are still too easy going and more than prepared to turn a blind eye when it suits.
Could we be our own worst enemy?
My backyard:
South Gippsland councillor Jeremy Rich charged after 21kg of cannabis discovered in police raid on family farm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-16/councillor-charged-after-cannabis-crops-found-in-south-gippsland/11019552
No councillor bullying’ in the Monitor’s report
https://sgst.com.au/2019/04/no-councillor-bullying-in-the-monitors-report/
Cr Brunt fourth South Gippy councillor to resign
https://sgst.com.au/2019/02/cr-brunt-fourth-south-gippy-councillor-to-resign/
Shire crisis deepens as fifth councillor goes
https://sgst.com.au/2019/05/shire-crisis-deepens-as-fifth-councillor-goes/
Monitor recommends suspension of South Gippsland Shire Council
https://sgst.com.au/2019/04/monitor-recommends-suspension-of-south-gippsland-shire/
My take is similar to Max’s – including the fact that overall Shorten looked like the most self assured. I think that still looks worse than the video because it was preceded by a lot of movement around the stage.
In any case, as I said I hope it gets played widely because it will almost certainly be accompanied by the footage leading up to it which is terrible for Morrison.
The reality is, the preference flows against Abbott are likely to be brutal. Early 40s are a dangerous place for Abbott’s primary to be.
shiftaling @ #156 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 10:54 am
Shorten portrayed confidence… for the most part … but he still got wobbly trying to navigate through the franking credit issue.
Labor have done a terrible job trying to sell it.
They should have had short, sharp lines that cut straight to the heart of the issue ready to roll when they announced the policy.
I thought it was disgusting of Bandt to respond to Creasey’s resignation with comments that could have been construed by the casual listener that he resigned due to actually committing violence against women. Regulars here will know that I don’t comment as an anti-Green, nonetheless it was disgraceful.
The one and only positive that came out of the debate last night was that Shorten did not lose even when faced with a “ interesting “ mix of undecided voters. The MSM was ready to rip with the headlines around Morrison on the rise, Shorten on the back foot etc etc etc.
Yes, Shorten performed well and had the better of Morrison. But apart from invigorating us political tragics no one in the real world would care.
The bottom line politically from last night, just as it was from the debate on Monday night in Perth, was that Shorten denied the MSM its narrative and headlines. In that respect, Shorten has done well.
Confessions @ #158 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 11:01 am
Tim Wilson .. Wow !
shiftaling @ #160 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 11:02 am
What was Bandts response ?
This is in Chris Bowen’s explanation of the imputation credit policy.
“Under the Pensioner Guarantee:
* Every recipient of an Australian Government pension or allowance with individual shareholdings will still be able to benefit from cash refunds. This includes individuals receiving the Age Pension, Disability Support Pension, Carer Payment, Parenting Payment, Newstart and Sickness Allowance.
* Self-managed Superannuation Funds with at least one recipient of an Australian Government pension or allowance as at 28 March 2018 will be exempt from the changes.”
https://www.chrisbowen.net/issues/labors-dividend-imputation-policy/
See later post
Ven: “But according to your earlier post Shorten is making it very difficult for you to vote for ALP because of his Franking Credit policy as you are beneficiary of current system. Another reason you gave for having difficulty in voting for ALP was ALP Climate chane policy. The thing is LNP do not have a CC policy and ALP has a reasonable policy initiatives.”
Nope, I don’t have any great problem with the franking credit policy: I just consider it to be politically risky and, on the grounds of fairness, think it should include grandfathering. My personal difficulties with Labor’s taxation policies relate more to the superannuation measures: you know, the ones that Shorten seemed to forget he was running with. Those measures, which won’t raise a great deal of money, will certainly raise some personal headaches for me. But, like (I suspect) most people, I don’t actually decide how I’m going to vote purely on the basis of short-term self-interest.
For at least 40 years, the biggest political issue for me has been that of environmental protection, including climate change. My main beef with Labor is their failure to adopt a clear cut policy on climate change: ie, one which includes the no-brainer of stopping Adani. I not only find that personally objectionable, but I also consider it to be politically risky. This is because I suspect I am a long way from atypical in my situation of being a) someone who will be adversely affected by Labor’s taxation policies, but b) someone who is dead keen to elect a government committed to doing something significant to battle global warming, and who finds the equivocation about Adani to be quite a turn off. It’s a great thing to choose the big picture over personal interest, but, if you do this, you really want to be sure that you’re actually going to get the big picture, and not just a big let down.
But, of course, I’m aware that, at the end of the day, a Labor Government is going to do significantly more for the environment than the Coalition under its current leadership.
And don’t talk to me about the Greens. I’m no communist. Nor were Bob Brown or Christine Milne (or even RDN for that matter, but I think he’s on the way out). The Greens are stuffed IMO and will soon find themselves in the dustbin of history where they deserve to be. It’s a shame that what was once potentially a positive force in Australian politics has been taken over by sorts of people who will be desperately hoping that the tyrants and criminals who are currently starving Venezuela to death can somehow hold on to power. What’s the current count: 3 million from Venezuala to Colombia and how many the other way? I guess about the same number of people who surged eastwards when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989.
I agree Doyley. With any of these debates there is a relatively high risk on both sides that one of the participants will slip up in a way that molds the narrative for the next few days. With every debate that Shorten come through unscathed the downside risk abates a bit. As the front runner in the polls Shorten arguably has more to lose and so just needs to put in a respectable performance. The fact that he’s generally been declared the winner in the debates so far is icing on the cake.
Michael Koziol
Verified account @michaelkoziol
2m2 minutes ago
Peter Dutton says Scott Morrison should remain Liberal leader whether the government wins or loses #ausvotes https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/win-or-lose-peter-dutton-says-scott-morrison-should-remain-liberal-leader-20190503-p51juy.html … via @CroweDM
“Violence against women and sexual violence is unacceptable, in any circumstances. The decision of the Labor candidate to resign is the right one,” Mr Bandt said.
“Melbourne is now a contest between the Greens and the conservatives, so if voters want to change the government and get real action on climate change, they need to vote Greens.”
“Actor Sir Tony Robinson, a former member of Labour’s governing National Executive Committee, says he has quit the party over its current direction.
“I’ve left the Labour Party after nearly 45 years of service at Branch, Constituency and NEC levels,partly because of it’s continued duplicity on Brexit, partly because of it’s antisemitism, but also because its leadership is complete shit.
54.8K
9:58 AM – May 3, 2019c”
Baldric and the Time Traveller is not too happy with Labour UK.
Doesn’t mince his words does he.
@meher baba
They are grandfathering.
A Simple google search reveals this.
Reckon the dis endorsed Lib candidate in Lyons will get in. …….
AEC needs to have some clearer stricter criteria for this scenario
rob harris
Verified account @rharris334
2m2 minutes ago
UComms poll shows Sussan Ley facing a 20%+ swing, with her primary vote down 35.1 per cent.
Kevin Mack, running as an independent, is sitting on 15 per cent – still behind Labor.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/federal-election-mayor-of-albury-makes-huge-inroads-in-irrigation-country/news-story/f1985c2ca44a27b5de487b479f4c4fac?nk=633ef1743253b5d30297383e175c1bf5-1556932554
Zoidlord @ #167 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 11:12 am
Who wants the poisoned chalice.
max @ #166 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 11:10 am
I think it’s a sad state of affairs when partisan voters are relieved that their champion just ‘comes through unscathed’ – as opposed to ‘engages and inspires’.
Grime says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 11:16 am
That’s something to Shorten’s credit, he took it and has been prepared to do the hard yards.
Rex Douglas: “Shorten portrayed confidence… for the most part … but he still got wobbly trying to navigate through the franking credit issue. Labor have done a terrible job trying to sell it.
They should have had short, sharp lines that cut straight to the heart of the issue ready to roll when they announced the policy.”
Even simpler, they should never have run with it in the first place. Or, alternatively, come up with a more detailed retirement income strategy in which some adjustment to franking credits played a part.
What they have now is the worst of all possible worlds: a so-called “rort” which they are happy to maintain for anyone who manages to organise their finances so they qualify for a part pension. And, by keeping it on for pensioners, they have further alienated the fully self-funded retirees who, if you gave them a choice, would greatly prefer to have it taken away from everyone rather than be maintained for pensioners and taken away from them.
When Labor introduced the idea, egged on by the Grattan Institute, they didn’t really seem to understand it all that well. Shorten’s press release stated: “This change only affects a small number of shareholders who have no tax liability and use imputation credits to receive a cash refund.”
As we now know, it actually affected a rather large number of shareholders: many hundreds of thousands.
One day Labor will go back to the idea of developing its policies with real economists – those at the ANU or elsewhere – and not listen solely to the overly simplistic messages coming out of the so-called “think tanks” like the Grattan Institute. (Something that Turnbull was also rather inclined to do as well.)
The campaign seems to be getting better for Labor as we approach the business end of the process. I still think it’s going to be tight – too tight for my liking – but with 2 weeks to go the signs are much better than they were two weeks ago.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 11:18 am
Still looking for your utopian messiah Rex!
shiftaling, Bandt in that statement is not hinting that whatshisname is himself violent against women, only that he was sending signals that violence against women is something other than unacceptable. On that I think Bandt was right on the money.
I don’t read Max’s comment in that way. I think the implication is that even if the debate were to engage and inspire, its audience reach is too limited whereas if a candidate fcks up that will be plastered far and wide and seen by many.
meher baba @ #176 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 11:22 am
The middle-class childcare bribery will more than cover any franking credit vote losses.
SCOUT @ #171 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 11:15 am
Then you’d better go place a wager on it. Sportsbet currently paying 11:1 on that option, with the Labor candidate still the heavy favorite at $1.01.
Big A, no because that sentence would have read “sending signals about violence against women is unacceptable. [Implicit “therefore”] my opponent has resigned”
Not “Violence against women is unacceptable. [Implicit “therefore”] my opponent has resigned”
Big A Adrian says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 11:25 am
But the post had nothing to do with violence against women.
“shiftaling says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 11:12 am
“Violence against women and sexual violence is unacceptable, in any circumstances. The decision of the Labor candidate to resign is the right one,” Mr Bandt said.
“Melbourne is now a contest between the Greens and the conservatives, so if voters want to change the government and get real action on climate change, they need to vote Greens.”..”
This isn’t a contest anymore. It’s a lay down misere.
I appear to have made friends with the G campaigners at pre-poll. I don’t think I’ve persuaded them to join Labor yet, but I will work on them.
We’ve been talking about the necessity of changing the government. This conversation has been held while the Lib-Libs, ON and UAP volunteers huddle together, unified by two things – their implacable determination to stop Labor and their desire to wind back time.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #178 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 11:24 am
No messiah …just genuine leadership
Guardian Australia
Verified account @GuardianAus
1m1 minute ago
Whither the Greens? How a reckoning looms for a party fighting to hang on
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/04/whither-the-greens-how-a-reckoning-looms-for-a-party-fighting-to-hang-on?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1556933298
Only one Party has not had internal struggles……. Since new rules were in place.
LABOR.
@Rex Douglas “The middle-class childcare bribery will more than cover any franking credit vote losses.”
Seriously, wtf
Rex Douglas has obviously not been paying for childcare out of an after-tax income for at least several days a week for many years.
Barney in Phan Thiet @ #175 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 11:21 am
Indeed,but bearing in mind Albo was the members choice so the caucus very much went with Shorten and has remained loyal to this day.
I wonder who the liberal members choice would be if they had any say in proceedings for the election of an opposition liberal leader.
Michael Koziol
Verified account @michaelkoziol
22s22 seconds ago
Silencing Folau with queer fascism betrays our gay marriage victory https://www.smh.com.au/national/silencing-folau-with-queer-fascism-betrays-our-gay-marriage-victory-20190503-p51jsk.html … via @smh
Rex Douglas: “The middle-class childcare bribery will more than cover any franking credit vote losses.”
Possibly, although I would suspect many people are struggling to understand exactly what the childcare proposals would mean for them personally. The headline messages seem to have been “childcare workers to get a 20% increase” and “low income families to pay nothing for childcare.” While I think most parents, seeing how hard child care workers are required to work, would be pleased to see them get a pay rise, I don’t think it is entirely clear to middle income aspirational families that they will personally benefit from these changes.
@briefly
It really makes him sound like an unemployable, spouse-less hermit only out for himself, or a lib troll.
I suspect both are true
Scott Morrison made blunders on the franking credit and income tax in last night debate
1- He could not explain why those retirees are getting tax returns
2- He could not explain how much will it cost for the over $180,000 wage bracket getting a tax cut
3- He stumbled badly in explaining why $40,000- $200,000 tax rate is the same
May 1st:
“New modelling to unleash explosive row over climate change costings” (David Crowe)
May 4th:
” crickets ..crickets ..”
..not so much an “explosion” ..more a damp squib!!!
..scare campaigns are so disappointing without Credlin & Abbott running the show 😀
Grime
I wonder who the liberal members choice would be if they had any say in proceedings for the election of an opposition liberal leader.
Really hard to know – their membership is pretty disconnected from their larger voter base.
I think at last year’s challenge the members probably would have gone for Dutton. If Morrison loses, I think the members would probably go for Abbott if he is still there. Not sure that this would be the choice of either the parliamentary members or the broader swathe of Liberal voters.
As others have said – if Labor wins, Morrison may well stay on as interim leader, achieving about as much as he has as interim PM, for about 12-18 months until he is deposed.
briefly @ #189 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 11:31 am
Subsidies for $170k income households is bribery.
@Scott
Mathias tried to rant on twitter today about it.