First up, I should note that elections will be held for two seats in Tasmania’s state upper house today (UPDATE: Make that three), as part of the 15-seat chamber’s cycle of annual periodical elections. Read Kevin Bonham’s rolling posts on the subject, for the electorate of Montgomery here and Pembroke here (UPDATE: and Nelson here), and you’ll be a lot better informed about it than I am. Nonetheless, I will make a probably half-hearted effort to live blog the results from 6pm this evening. Second up, a good word for the latest episode of the Seat du Jour series, which today covers the famous outer Sydney seat of Lindsay.
Now to business. The misadventures of sundry candidates are making it a constant challenge for me to keep my federal election guide up to date. The tally of candidates who will remain on the ballot paper despite having “withdrawn” to head off embarrassment for their parties now sits at six – although there is nothing to stop any candidate on the ballot paper winning election and taking their seat. Indeed, the two Senate candidates could theoretically win on recounts if the lead candidates end up being disqualified under some or other provision of Section 44 (or, in the case of One Nation candidate Malcolm Roberts in Queensland, re-disqualified). In turn:
• The second candidate on Labor’s Northern Territory Senate ticket, Wayne Kurnorth, was found to have shared anti-Semitic videos on Facebook in 2015, one of which featured popular British conspiracy theorist David Icke’s thesis that the world is run by shape-shifting Jewish lizards. Shorten overreached in distancing himself from Kurnorth, asserting he had never met him, a claim belied by a photo of the two that shortly emerged.
• Another “zombie” Senate candidate is Steve Dickson, who is placed second on One Nation’s ticket in Queensland. Dickson held the state seat of Buderim for One Nation for most of 2017, having previously been a Liberal National Party member since 2012. His troubles arose earlier this week when footage emerged of him offering poetic musings on the art of love while in a strip club, specifically relating to the deficiencies in that field of “Asian chicks”. This revelation for some reason reduced Pauline Hanson to tears during one of her daily appearances on commercial network television on Wednesday.
• Labor’s candidate for Melbourne, Luke Creasey, withdrew yesterday, two days after a report appeared in The Australian regarding his social media activity in 2012, at which time he was a 22-year-old university student. The most publicisied of Creasey’s infractions was to click “like” on what those who know their way around social media would recognise as a “psycho girlfriend meme”, in this case involving a joke about false rape allegations. He at first offered only an apology for what he acknowledged was “stupid, immature” behaviour, but a divide reportedly opened within the party between Creasey’s own Left faction, which wanted him to tough it out, and some on the Right, who insisted he be dumped. Importantly, The Australian reports the latter included Noah Carroll and Sam Rae, respectively the party’s national and state secretaries.
• Isaacs candidate Jeremy Hearn was one of two Liberals to announce his withdrawal on Wednesday, after it emerged he had written a number of comments on Facebook to the effect that the Muslim community wished to overthrow the Australian government and institute sharia law.
• Also pulling the plug on Wednesday was the Liberal candidate for Wills, Peter Killin, who wrote on a Christian conservative forum in 2016 that its readers should have participated in the Liberal preselection in Goldstein, as their doing so would have ensured the defeat of a “homosexual MP”, Tim Wilson.
• Jessica Whelan withdrew as the Liberal candidate for Lyons yesterday over anti-Muslim posts on Facebook, although she says she will continue to campaign as an independent. Whelan’s problems began on Wednesday when The Mercury reported she had posted that Muslims should not be allowed to live in Australia, and that Donald Trump should deal with Muslim-sympathetic feminists by giving them clitoridectomies and selling them to Muslim countries. She initially responded that the screen shots were fabricated, and referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police. Scott Morrison’s position on Thursday was that this was good enough for him, although he appeared to go to some lengths to avoid getting too close to Whelan when the two appeared together at a pre-arranged promotional opportunity at an agricultural show. However, Whelan appeared to change her mind about both the views expressed and their having been fabricated when she announced her withdrawal yesterday, prompting Morrison to complain he had been lied to. The Liberals will now encourage supporters to vote for the Nationals candidate, Deanna Hutchinson.
Horse race latest:
• In his column in the News Corp tabloids today, David Speers relates that “hard heads” in the Liberal Party doubt they can win. As one such reportedly puts it: “If we had another three months, who knows”.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported on Thursday that Labor sources said the party was “losing its grip” in Coalition-held marginals in regional Queensland where it led early in the campaign.
• Jennifer Hewett of the Financial Review reported on Monday that Liberals were “increasingly optimistic about internal polling” in Flinders, where Greg Hunt was “no longer at real risk”. Elsewhere in Victoria, Deakin was “considered solid”, although Corangamite was “much less certain”. The only seats in Victoria the Liberals were giving away were Dunkley and Chisholm.
• Andrew Clark of the Financial Review reports Liberal polling in Wentworth shows them “in a winning position, though the numbers are extremely close”, while in Warringah, Zali Steggall’s campaign is spruiking a poll that has her leading on the primary vote, with Tony Abbott said to be stuck on around 40%.
• For the second time in the campaign, the Liberals have provided the media – in this case Matthew Denholm of The Australian – with polling conducted by TeleReach that shows Bill Shorten with poor personal ratings in northern Tasmania. The poll gives Shorten a 29% approval and 63% disapproval rating in Braddon (compared with 55% and 37% for Scott Morrison), 37% approval and 56% disapproval in Bass, and 37% approval and 50% disapproval in Lyons. However, as was the case last time, no voting intention numbers appear to have been provided.
Self-promotion corner:
If you’re interested in my take on the state of play in my home state of Western Australia, you can hear a shorter version of it on Monday’s edition of the ABC’s AM program, or a much longer one on The Conversation’s Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast. Then there are my two paywalled articles for Crikey this week, lest anyone be worried that I haven’t been keeping myself busy lately.
From yesterday, an account of the importance of the Chinese community at the election:
Labor won enduring loyalty among many Chinese voters after the Hawke government allowed students to stay in Australia after the Tiananmen Square massacre, and John Howard did lasting damage with his suggestion that Asian immigration should be curtailed during his first stint as leader in 1988. When Howard himself suffered his historic defeat in Bennelong in 2007, the result was widely attributed to the transformative effect of Chinese immigration on the once white middle-class electorate. Increasingly though, the rise of China’s middle class is bringing affluent new arrivals with economic priorities to match, together with a measure of cultural resistance to the broader community’s progressive turn on sex and gender issues.
And from Monday, on Clive Palmer’s preference deal with the Coalition:
If Palmer can get ahead of the third candidate on the Coalition’s ticket, who will have what remains after the first 28.6% is spent electing its top two candidates, a quarter of their vote will then flow to Palmer, if Coalition voters’ rate of adherence to the how-to-vote card in 2016 offers any guide. That could give him a decisive edge over Malcolm Roberts of One Nation, his main competition for a third seat likely to be won by parties of the right. But so far as the Liberals are concerned, the significance of the deal is in showing up what a dim view they must be taking of their prospects, and their readiness to grasp at any straw that happens to come within reach.
William
Good morning
Are you in a Union?
Its probably worth a look at your terms and conditions, particularly lack of sleep between shifts.
Thank you.
William – your dot point on Victorian matters mentions both Deakin being solid and one of the Liberals were giving it away. Should one of those be another seat (Dunkley perhaps?).
Yep, corrected. Cheers.
14 days left. More like 14 years
It’s funny how the internal assessments vary so much from week to week. These reports seem to accord more with what makes sense than previous ones, but I still don’t put much stock in them.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The ABC Fact Checker ran the ruler over last night’s debate and gave Shorten a pass., Not so for Morrison.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-03/fact-checking-the-second-leaders-debate-ausvotes2019/11079120
Summing up the debate Michelle Grattan says, “Bill Shorten’s many town hall meetings stood him in good stead in the Sky “people’s forum” in Brisbane on Friday night. His engagement with the audience was more direct than Scott Morrison’s, and he packed multiple references to his promises into his answers.”
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-bill-shorten-at-ease-in-town-hall-type-forum-116555
The Conversation had several experts give their comments on the debate. The theme of his article is that Morrison has nowhere to hide.
https://theconversation.com/up-close-and-personal-morrison-and-shorten-get-punchy-in-the-second-leaders-debate-our-experts-respond-116521
This effort from Paul Bongiorno is my pick of the crop for today.
https://www.outline.com/WeszfH
Here’s Sam Maiden’s take on the debate.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/03/morrison-shorten-debate-brisbane/
Despite Clive Palmer’s outlandish claims of his party forming government, the United Australia Party leader has a canny election strategy: to benefit his mining interests, writes Mike Seccombe.
https://www.outline.com/WG28zz
David Crowe reports that Morrison has secured a major statement of support from one-time rival Peter Dutton to ensure the Prime Minister keeps his position as Liberal Party leader whether he wins or loses the federal election. Easy for Dutton to say given that he’s unlikely to hold his seat.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/win-or-lose-peter-dutton-says-scott-morrison-should-remain-liberal-leader-20190503-p51juy.html
David Wroe writes about the major parties’ dirt units and the success they are having. And he predicts there’s more to come.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/candidates-skittled-as-political-dirt-units-enter-overdrive-in-the-social-media-era-20190503-p51jxw.html
Phil Coorey writes that now leaders must be ruthless in the social media age and he proposes some rules for them.
https://www.outline.com/NazSB8
Tim Soutphommasane says that at last we have a choice – social democracy or a Trumpified Liberal Party. A good contribution here.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/at-last-we-have-a-choice-social-democracy-or-trumpified-liberal-party-20190502-p51jkp.html
Bill Shorten has promised to deliver bigger budget surpluses than the Coalition as he flagged a further crackdown on multinational tax avoidance when he launches Labor’s campaign tomorrow.
https://www.outline.com/3damR4
The AFR explains what Labor will do with the establishment of a federal EPA.
https://www.outline.com/MWsHVU
Jack Waterford goes to the rising temperature of climate change politics.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6104142/the-rising-temperature-of-climate-change-politics/?cs=14350
The Guardian reports that far-right ringleader Neil Erikson was one of three extremists who attended a “conservative recruitment event” for the Liberal National party at a private residence on the Gold Coast last year. Who is pulling the strings?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/03/neil-erikson-attended-gold-coast-recruitment-event-for-the-liberal-national-party
Laura Tingle wonders when the swing will become apparent.
https://www.outline.com/hfgALJ
Karen Middleton says that wherever there’s a marginal seat, there’s a politician from the Coalition or Labor pledging millions of dollars. She has heaps of examples.
https://www.outline.com/gxC6v2
Steve Bannon thinks the Aussie election is dull – but is that so bad asks Peter Hartcher.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/steve-bannon-thinks-the-aussie-election-is-dull-but-is-that-so-bad-20190503-p51juf.html
Adani’s Carmichael mine is unlikely to go ahead, and most people know it, writes John Quiggin.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/03/adanis-carmichael-mine-is-unlikely-to-go-ahead-and-most-people-know-it
The Adani pile-on continues apace this week with Bob Brown’s Stop Adani convoy, Queensland Government’s rejection of the miner’s management plan for the endangered Black-Throated Finch and the UK’s upping of the global stakes with its “climate emergency”. Ian Dunlop sums up why Adani must be stopped.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/stopping-adani-is-a-no-brainer-economically-financially-and-for-our-survival/
Deborah Snow has written a long puff piece on Morrison for Fairfax Lite.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/political-genius-or-footnote-in-history-scott-morrison-nears-his-may-18-date-with-destiny-20190503-p51jqq.html
Jim Bright posits that great leaders hard to find as those in charge pander to popularism.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/great-leaders-hard-to-find-as-those-in-charge-pander-to-popularism-20190430-p51ipg.html
The SMH editorial sheets the blame for uncertainty over climate costs onto the Coalition. Fair enough too.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/coalition-is-to-blame-for-uncertainty-over-climate-costs-20190503-p51js3.html
And Ross Gittins says that only the stupid think the cost of climate change is simple.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/only-the-stupid-think-the-cost-of-climate-change-is-simple-20190503-p51jr3.html
In a long contribution Shane Wright considers that both Labor’s and the Coalition’s economic vision lack foresight.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/both-labor-and-the-coalition-s-economic-vision-lack-foresight-20190501-p51iyt.html
You’ll have to use the Google trick to read this article from Janet Albreschtsen who really onloads on Pauline Hanson.
pauline-maybe-the-problem-is-you/news-story/a68b7aa1ac29b442d8245eb023bf7add
Clementine Ford writes that the compulsory ParentsNext program aims to help disadvantaged parents find work. Instead, it has led to financial instability for many participants, who struggle to meet the scheme’s requirements.
https://www.outline.com/grywDU
If the Reserve Bank cuts the cash rate next week, don’t count on fireworks at the ASX. Investors’ eyes are firmly on the Fed writes Stephen Bartholomeusz.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-federal-reserve-s-words-are-more-powerful-than-the-rba-s-actions-20190503-p51jsp.html
Australia’s largest listed construction company CIMIC has been accused of inflating its profit and hiding its poor performance.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/construction-giant-cimic-targeted-over-800m-profit-boost-20190503-p51jxg.html
As election day approaches, both Labor and the Coalition have taken to the social media platform WeChat to appeal to Chinese-Australian voters – even if it might lead to scrutiny by the Chinese government.
https://www.outline.com/wLY4Bw
Dr David Shearman discusses the dangers that methane gas is having on our environment and ways we can prevent further damage.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/the-methane-gas-bomb-a-climate-emergency,12636
Adele Ferguson yet again unloads on the franchise industry as she reports that the national bakery chain Michel’s Patisserie faces a food safety investigation after deliberately selling batches of chocolate cakes, birthday cakes and edible decorations to customers months after their use-by date.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/really-dodgy-michel-s-patisserie-faces-investigation-over-expiry-date-outrage-20190502-p51jlv.html
Electric cars: What you need to know about the coming revolution.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/auto/2019/05/03/electric-cars-facts-australia/
Michael McGowan reports on another day of the Leyonhjelm/Hanson-Young trial.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/03/sarah-hanson-young-did-not-say-all-men-are-rapists-senators-tell-court
Violence and aggression in Victorian state schools has led to the creation of a secret new 24/7 high-security crisis centre in the Melbourne CBD to monitor CCTV and watch emergency incidents unfold. Bloody hell!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/crisis-teams-are-monitoring-schools-and-their-cctv-from-a-secret-high-security-bunker-20190503-p51jxs.html
It’s important to understand the true meaning of Islam and recognise the radical extremists who try to sully it, writes Hena Jawaid.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/terrorism-has-no-religion-the-true-meaning-of-islam,12637
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have vowed to press ahead with seeking a cross-party solution to the Brexit deadlock at Westminster, after voters punished both major parties in local elections. The Conservatives lost more than 1,200 seats!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/03/tories-lose-over-1200-seats-in-local-elections-as-major-parties-suffer
The Washington Post explains how note takers have infuriated Trump.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/cited-in-the-russia-report-65-times-her-notes-became-mueller-s-nixon-tapes-20190504-p51k0c.html
The Guardian says that William Barr is acting like Trump’s henchman and seems willing to distort facts, to cunningly parse words, and to condone behaviour that borders on criminality.
These three have earned nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”. And an arrest!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/three-people-charged-over-alleged-plot-to-supply-144-million-worth-of-ice-from-mexico-20190503-p51js9.html
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir and Abbott’s problems with experts.
David Rowe has two for us today.
From Matt Golding.
Peter Broelman and our candidates dropping like flies.
Matt Davidson on the war of words.
An old one from Alan Moir.
Sean Leahy compares the parties’ candidate screening procedures.
Jon Kudelka and a new procedure for candidates.
And he summarises week three f the campaign.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ea4348cf6ad755b5f19da6bbc1e54a3d?width=1024
From the US.
Right now unless the polls change, I think it is going to be a long night on May 18.
WMany thanks to all those selfless PBers last night who watched and commented/reported/analysed the debate. I may have mentioned that Scrott is someone who makes my skin crawl with his faux comraderie and vocal delivery. I think Bill should be handed the election just for his having to share a platform with him.
Seeing clips of the debate (sound off) , the body language of the two is starkly different and encapsulates that this election is there for Morrison to lose and it shows which him trying to make every move (invasion?) count. Bill’s relaxed demenor shines out like a beacon.
Non of which of course makes one iota of difference to the actual policies on offer, it’s all about salesmanship and TV ratings.
However, the LNP was keen to do this stuff and the fallout will be for them to assess but I can’t see how playing to the opponents strengths is a winning tactic.
What does Scrott do now?
Tristo says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 7:21 am
Right now unless the polls change, I think it is going to be a long night on May 18.
——————–
If the opinions polls are accurate that the libs/nats combined primary vote is 38%/39% it will be a early night , Labor will be declared the new government around 7:30pm saturday night
Anyone have any more on this ‘poll in 3 seats by YouGov’ in The West Australian?
Dirt.
@Scott
You do raise a good point, especially given the Coalition would be lucky to get 2/3’s of the preferences from right-wing populist parties, especially Palmer’s United Australia Party (current preference deal not withstanding). While Labor can rely on getting 80% of Greens preferences.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election/federal-election-2019-alp-candidate-sharyn-morrows-racist-rant-uncovered-ng-b881187561z
Good morning William,
Thanks again for another cracking summary of the state of play with this fascinating election.
You also come across nicely on ABC radio and podcasts just saying.
Speaking of such matters Corangamite I think is very interesting. Jon Faine ran his program yesterday at the Torquay Bowls Club which included interviews and Q&A with the two main candidates plus the Greens and an independent.
The I/V with Sarah Henderson came across as a complete train wreck for her. Sarah was on the defensive and complained about the bias of the crowd. Sarah was also incredibly arrogant. I think she will really struggle to hold onto this seat. The ALP candidate really wasn’t much better and ducked and weaved around questions regarding Adani but appeared to receive a more favourable reaction from the audience. A really poor performance by the candidate.
The Green’s candidate was very unconvincing and appeared bored. The independent (Darren?) a local surfer was sharp, gave good answers and appeared to be very popular. His ticket was very much along environmental grounds. He may well be a surprise.
In the end I’d say Sarah lost the day clearly, followed by the ALP candidate but Darren may well get up.
Interestingly, what is supposedly fodder for a Labor candidate to resign, is the same kind of rhetoric we’re used to hearing from coalition govt ministers and MPs.
William, there are actually three Legislative Council elections in Tasmania today, Montgomery, Pembroke and Nelson with the latter being a tight contest with the retirement of the current member LC president Jim Wilkinson.
Paul Bongiorno
Verified account @PaulBongiorno
44s45 seconds ago
Nowhere for Scott Morrison to hide
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/05/04/nowhere-scott-morrison-hide/15568920008079?utm_source=tsp_website&utm_campaign=social_mobile_twitter&utm_medium=social_share
Confessions @ #13 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 7:42 am
Durack is Melissa Price’s seat, isn’t it?
Yes, Price is the Member for Durack.
Some people have too much time on their hand.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1124409280952619008
If the Libs hold Corangamite you’d think they’ll win the election easily. Can’t see it happening tbh.
Millennial @ #18 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 7:45 am
Is this another one two punch or is that all they have to offer?
I could be wrong but I reckon 60% of Australians would mostly agree with what she wrote.
Next!
So I’ve just learned that there is a mobile advertising billboard that reads “labor will tax you to death” – along with a picture of a headstone. Located, wait for it, just outside the Canberra cemetery.
Wow.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-and-putin-discussed-outcome-of-mueller-probe-as-part-of-hour-long-phone-conversation-white-house-says/2019/05/03/77c5e98c-6d94-11e9-be3a-33217240a539_story.html?utm_term=.b42ad85c8b56
It would be harsh of the ALP to disendorse a candidate for simply stating ALP policy.
The ALP does regard refugees as troublemakers and queue-jumpers who should go back to where they came from. The ALP is especially exercised by the trouble that they believe refugees can cause to the ALP’s electoral prospects.
The ALP does refuse to endorse a Job Guarantee that would directly create a meaningful, interesting, fair minimum wage job for every job-seeker and provide relevant on-the-job training and education requested by the job-seeker. The ALP subscribes to failed supply side education and training programs that educate and train people for jobs that aren’t there, and paternalistic workshops that aim to “improve” the habits and attitudes of the poor in the hope that this will lead to job-seekers getting jobs that aren’t there. The ALP subscribes to failed workfare policies that aim to change the “incentives” that poor people face but that don’t address the real problem: lack of jobs.
The best way to help the unemployed is to provide the jobs first, then provide relevant education and training on the the job. Don’t just provide education and training and fail to follow through on direct job creation. Even at the height of an economic boom, the private sector never employs everybody who wants a job. Targeted public sector job creation is necessary to eradicate involuntary unemployment.
A reflection on last night’s debate, and the framing of Climate Change action/inaction by the major parties. Especially telling with the YouGov poll (details I’m sure to come) showing that people don’t care how much it costs, just get on with doing something about it.
I blame Greg the Lyin’ Hunt for the poor rhetoric which the Liberals are mired in. When he was the disasterous Environment Minister, he started using the ‘tonnes’ to measure how much was being saved, how much better than before, how much ahead of Kyoto and Paris etc. No dollar value, or mitigation effect, or anything which people can relate to. And this was started at the time when Abbott was PM, and he and his denialists were saying CO2 was weightless.
Along comes Frydo, Scotty and Angus ‘Bull’ Taylor. Every answer to what are they doing on Climate Change was framed with the ‘tonnes’, and how good they were doing, ‘in a canter’. For 99% of people that is meaningless. It is a well known communication theory that if you use 1 word in a sentence the listener doesn’t understand, comprehension is difficult. If you use 2 words, comprehension is impossible. So starting answer with ‘tonnes’ has the effect of flumoxing with the risk that a second obscure term, or a repeat of tonnes loses the listener.
Interestingly, Bill Shorten got to go second on the Climate Change question. He started off with a nod to the Liberal framing – but used the term Mega-tonnes – he used in twice, before launching into the ALP policy which is much more understandable in terms of effect on industry, EVs, etc etc and never returned to the off-putting word.
When pressed by Speers on the cost, the cost, the cost of action – Bill said ‘for taxpayers, the cost will be nothing’ before nuancing the economics of adaptation which companies will adopt.
Nicholas
You present a most interesting algorithm!
ltep @ #5 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 7:10 am
The real ones are guarded more intensively than the gold at Fort Knox. The parties only let out the ones that they think will advantage them in some way. 🙂
How the Russians targeted Bernie Bros to elect Trump.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-the-russian-effort-to-target-sanders-supporters–and-help-elect-trump/2019/04/11/741d7308-5576-11e9-8ef3-fbd41a2ce4d5_story.html?utm_term=.fac106fb38c9
“The Weekend West has uncovered Ms Morrow’s offensive anti-asylum seeker comments from 2013, made in response to a riot at the Nauru detention centre that caused $60 million damage and occurred under Labor.”
That riot was a significant event as I remember it for people who were broadly sympathetic to asylum-seekers; I saw and heard at a social event, several people who were swinging voters, fire up and be very critical of the rioters for not being grateful and disgusted with the violence. They blamed Labor and I think that was the reason they voted Liberal the next election.
Who encouraged the asylum-seekers to riot and did they not understand the consequences?
‘fess,
Not many degrees of seperation at all between Bernie Sanders’ campaign and Russian operatives. Paul Manafort worked with Konstantin Kilimnik, known GRU US operative. Kilimnik and Manafort also worked with Tad Devine. Tad Devine was Bernie Sanders’ Senior Adviser for the 2016 presidential campaign.
There is an obvious and definite smell around Bernie Sanders.
Morning bludgers
Fess
The current state of play in the USA is appalling to say the least. Democracy was already in a tenuous state.
Rod Rosenstein retiring in next week, is no coincidence. I sense things are being manoeuvred to facilitate an outcome. As usual, wait and see how it all plays out.
Burgey says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 7:51 am
If the Libs hold Corangamite you’d think they’ll win the election easily. Can’t see it happening tbh.
———————
The libs/nats combined primary vote would need to be over 45% for them to retain government and be in a majority , the libs/nats will need 43% + just to retain the 74 seats they hold
C@t:
There is also this story about Sanders’ honeymoon in Russia 30 years ago. Very strange.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-bernie-sanderss-1988-10-day-honeymoon-in-the-soviet-union/2019/05/02/db543e18-6a9c-11e9-a66d-a82d3f3d96d5_story.html?utm_term=.c0877e09645e
C@t
As happens with candidates in general, there will be plenty of dirty tricks etc. Biden will be copping it the worst, as he is currently the front runner.
In any event, Sanders will not succeed in getting the nomination.
I personally like Adam Schiff who is not running as yet.
FMD , even in the useless US MSM you could read exactly the same thing.
Vic:
As we often said during the Mueller probe, there was a mole inside the WH. Watergate had the Nixon tapes, whereas Mueller had the WH staffer diaries!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/watergate-had-the-nixon-tapes-mueller-had-annie-donaldsons-notes/2019/05/03/d2b1bc62-66b5-11e9-8985-4cf30147bdca_story.html?utm_term=.4cae231fe2bb
Meanwhile the council elections in the UK have also been very telling with respect to Brexit.
We are definitely living in interesting times.
Oh dear, it seems that those Labor nut jobs claiming yesterday that a Greens dirt unit was responsible for Creasey’s exit owe the Greens an apology. Of course for those contributors to apologise would be honest and reasonable behaviour, so nevah gunna happen:
Not that the Liberals were well-placed to be outraged; they were busy pushing information on Labor’s candidate for Melbourne, Luke Creasey, who resigned on Friday for sharing jokes about rape online seven years ago. Labor is confident of Liberal involvement in the Creasey case because metadata in documents given to journalists showed the fingerprints of a Liberal staffer.
Fess
There may actually be more than one mole. And my feeling is that it is someone who is least expected.
Yesterday, Scotty announced $200m to clean up environment – today’s counter from Labor is for $1b
bert: “William, there are actually three Legislative Council elections in Tasmania today, Montgomery, Pembroke and Nelson with the latter being a tight contest with the retirement of the current member LC president Jim Wilkinson.”
Yep, off to cast my vote in Nelson shortly. As per my idiosyncratic mix of political views, I’m planning to give my first preference to Vica Bayley: long-time stalwart of the Wilderness Society and, unlike most candidates for the so-called Greens party, a 100% genuine environmentalist (and ripper bloke besides). And then my second preference to the Liberal candidate (and former lower house member) Nic Street, who is reasonably close to my ideal for a politician: pro-business but socially progressive (he gave a ripper of a speech on same sex marriage when we was last in parliament).
The candidate who has campaigned the hardest is former ALP lower house member Madeleine Ogilvie, now running as (in her words) a “genuine independent.” Madeleine is from Tasmanian political blue blood: her great-uncle on her father’s side was a Labor premier while her mother is the widow (by second marriage) of the much-loved previous Tasmanian Governor Peter Underwood. Madeleine hails from the Catholic right and, after having some stoushes with her parliamentary colleagues about the issues of abortion and euthanasia, was ousted from Denison in the last state election by a more left-wing Labor candidate named Ella Haddad. She’s a highly engaging character, but – apart from her conservative social views – she rather lost me by putting at the top of her list of political priorities for this campaign the issue of Tasmanian having its own AFL team. And I’ve yet to hear her say anything of substance about environmental issues.
But I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see her win. And I could live with that: she would work hard for the area.
Confessions @ #29 Saturday, May 4th, 2019 – 8:12 am
Dīvide et imperā, videtur.
Tristan Jones says:
Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 7:37 am
@Scott
You do raise a good point, especially given the Coalition would be lucky to get 2/3’s of the preferences from right-wing populist parties, especially Palmer’s United Australia Party (current preference deal not withstanding). While Labor can rely on getting 80% of Greens preferences.
——————————–
The libs/nats can not afford to leak any of their primary vote to those minor parties and expect to gain seats
Max
It was always the LPDU with the dirt on Creasey. The Greens Dirt Units are solely aimed at opposing factions and/or personalities within the Greens.
Vic:
Jay Inslee is the guest on Real Time today. Some commentators have said he will go far in the primaries next year, and will appeal to both Democrats and Republicans. I’m looking forward to hearing what he has to say.
Luke Creasey dug his own grave. But perhaps the LNP provided the shovel.
Fess
Haven’t seen much of Jay Inslee as yet.
Victoria:
He’s calling himself the climate candidate, apparently.
Fess
Yes. His platform is on renewable energy and phasing out coal