Odds and sods: week three

Betting market continue to favour Labor – but Monday’s Newspoll narrowing seems to have prompted movement to the Coalition, who have gained favouritism in three of their own marginals and one of Labor’s.

First up, a new uComms/ReachTEL seat poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a 51-49 lead in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, which Labor’s Justine Keay won by 2.2% in 2016 and 2.3% in the Super Saturday by-election last September. Excluding the 4.5% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 35.1%, Liberal 40.0%, Nationals 3.7%, Greens 6.6% and United Australia Party 5.5%, which sounds consistent enough with the two-party headline. As per ReachTEL’s usual format, there was a forced response follow-up for the undecided – The Mercury reports 23.7% of them favoured Labor and 21.1% Liberal. The poll was conducted Monday night from a sample of 861. The same client and the same pollster produced a 54-46 lead for the Liberals in Bass at the start of the campaign, which most observers would have rated excessive.

Second, please note the post below dedicated to the seat of Gilmore – the first in a series of seat-related posts I will be unrolling every day from now until the big day.

Now to the the state of the betting markets. I can’t claim to be the internet’s best resource on this particular issue, as that title belongs to Mark the Ballot, whose reading of the collective market’s implied probability of a Coalition win leapt from 25.3% to 29.2% in the immediate wake of Monday’s Newspoll. I’m only following Ladbrokes, which had Labor on $1.25 and the Coalition on $3.90 a week ago; moved to Labor $1.35 and Coalition $3.15 after Newspoll; and has since moved back slightly to Labor, at $1.32 to the Coalition’s $3.30.

Ladbrokes’ seat odds (which are listed on the bottom right of each page on the electorate guide) now has Labor as favourites in 85 seats, down from 89 last week, with the Coalition up from 58 to 61. The Coalition are now favourites in Banks ($2.25 to $1.77, with Labor going from $1.62 to $2.00), Capricornia ($2.50 to $1.83, Labor from $1.57 to $1.91), Herbert ($2.50 to $1.65, Labor from $1.57 to $2.20) and Page ($1.90 to $1.80, Labor the other way round). However, independent Kevin Mack is now favoured in Farrer ($2.00 to $1.50, the Nationals from $1.70 to $2.20), making him one of six non-major party candidates to be rated favourites. Not among their number are Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth, who has slipped from $2.30 to $3.25 with the Liberals in from $1.57 to $1.33, or Zali Steggall in Warringah.

The Liberals have also been slashed from $6.50 to $2.80 in Corangamite, with Labor out from $1.10 to $1.40, and the market seems to have noticed the frequency of leaders’ visits to the Northern Territory, with Labor out from $1.18 to $1.50 in Solomon and the Country Liberals in from $4.00 to $2.40. However, Labor’s odds have shortened in Reid ($1.27 to $1.22, Liberals from $3.25 to $4.00) and La Trobe ($1.53 to $1.40, Liberals from $2.40 to $3.00).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

984 comments on “Odds and sods: week three”

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  3. It is misleading and unhelpful to use the frame of a “revenue base” when discussing the federal government’s spending.

    Federal tax receipts are Australian dollars that have been deleted out of existence.

    The government’s enforcement of tax liabilities denominated in Australian dollars drives demand for Australian dollars. Taxes make the currency valuable. Taxes help to control inflation. Taxes influence the distribution of wealth and income. Taxes influence the behaviours of households and firms. Taxes are therefore extremely important for several reasons. But federal tax receipts are not a hoard or a stockpile or a treasure chest that enables the government to spend.

    The federal government uses keystrokes on computers at its central bank to spend Australian dollars into existence and to tax Australian dollars out of existence.

    Federal government spending is done by crediting Exchange Settlement Accounts at the central bank.

    Federal government taxation is done by debiting Exchange Settlement Accounts at the central bank.

  4. Liberal candidate in Eden-Monaro is flooding the electorate with corflutes, she’s on $11 to win, so Mike Kelly is reasonably favoured to retain. Interestingly the local council is calling for families with babies to assemble at the Yass hospital tomorrow afternoon for a policy announcement. I’m guessing a return of maternity services which in a town of nearly 7000 will be welcome, having done the 5.30am dash to Canberra with a wife in advanced labour. Assuming it is a Labor announce,ent as the LNP don’t have policies as such.

  6. “That is the situation in 2019, and no amount of tree-hugging, weasel-worded kumba-ya from the do-nothing Greens will change that.”

    ***

    You can’t see it, but let me assure you that I slowly shook my head as I read this post. Now the Greens of 2009 are being blamed for Shorten not getting soft interviews in 2019. You can take me now, I have [heard] it all!

    I’m not going to write another essay on the CPRS lol. Suffice to say that it was shit and deserves to be part of history, not the present or the future.

  7. Simon² Katich® @ #850 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 9:25 pm

    Watched 7.30. Sales did ok.

    Is Bill Shorten two people? Seriously, he comes across as a wally; his phrasing flaps around like George Costanza playing basketball. But, if you engage and listen to the substance, he bombs 3 pointers from downtown.

    I dont get him. He is quite weird… in a solid kinda way. I can see why peeps arent engaging with him yet I suspect enough are seeing through it to the substance – enough to get him through.

    Shorten is no cookie cutter politician, that is for sure. As Prime Minister I think he will be interesting

  14. “If there’s a new government after this election, that does need to be a conversation that needs restarting. From term one. Not towards the end of the government’s life when it’s desperate to be relevant.

    It’s been 20 years. It’s time.”

    ***

    Absolutely agree.

  18. Royal College of GPs ad on TV tonight – calling for freeze on Medicare rebates to be lifted. Had people saying they couldn’t afford to see doctor. Didn’t say which party to support but message is obvious.

  21. The market research on the Republic suggests that older Australians are significantly more likely to support a Republic than younger Australians. This reflects the absence of much discussion of the matter since the failure of the convention and referendum. Young women are the least likely of all to have an opinion on or to favour a move to a Republic. Geographically, Tasmanians are more likely than any others to favour the move.

    There is a small overall majority of the electorate that favour Australia becoming a republic. This would have to be significantly strengthened for a reform proposal to succeed. Labor have committed to the presentation of a plebiscite on the question of whether or not we should become a Republic. This is the threshold question sought by the Republican Movement.

    My own view is that a very substantial pro-reform campaign would have to be launched, followed by a non-partisan discussion in the community. This is a tough issue, not least because Republicans remain divided on the ‘model’ they might support.

  25. Our mailbox received that nauseating Liberal flyer about Labor “taxing you until death”. Similar TV ad tonight was even more nauseating, it had a tombstone in the graphic.

  26. An excellent interview by Shorten on 7.30. You can really see the Labor campaign taking shape. Labor supporters should be much happier with how Shorten is going now that the campaign proper is underway.

    I reckon Labor are happy talking about climate change and franking credits (i.e. tax loopholes) even though the answers given don’t please everyone. I think both topics are on their terrain.

  27. “Yep the republic is something that should be front and centre in Labor’s next campaign if they win office this time around. i reckon younger voters would be right up for it.”

    It needs to start soon too. King Charles is an opportunity too good for Republicans to pass up. I’m not trying to be nasty or anything but the Queen can’t have too many years left. She’s 93 after all. A change in monarch is not far away, either through death or abdication, and Charles is not a very well liked figure at all. It will be much easier to get the referendum to pass once he is king.

  28. adrian

    I watched the Sales interview AND attended our local branch meeting – we met in a member’s house and agreed to start the meeting off by watching the interview. We were all pleased that we did.

  31. Paul Keating should be the first President of an Australian Republic. Or Barry Humphries, but in character, alternating between Edna and Les.

  33. If Edna was real, she’d be campaigning for Morrison A real class traitor that one, came from Moonee Ponds when it was still working class and knighted by Gough, but still a right winger.

  34. Humphries is a complex character. I’m not denying his conservative leanings, but he’s also been subversive and incredibly funny. I don’t mind funny conservatives too much. there’s not many of them.

  35. Martin B

    That is informative, and also amusing.

    I can understand now what people have been saying about struggling to get past “6” – but I think it is important to not let any fraction of your vote exhaust.

  36. lol murpharoo on how Bill Shorten got the ALP right to back him:

    ‘After the loss in 2013 there was a view that it was better to allow Bill Shorten to be leader than cut Bill Shorten off from being leader because I think to put it bluntly, people thought it was better to have Bill Shorten out the front than standing behind them’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2019/apr/12/from-powerbroker-to-leader-can-bill-shorten-win-the-election-australian-politics-live-podcast

  38. clem attlee
    says:
    Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 11:30 pm
    Not a patch on Peter Cook Nath. Hey I’m on a roll, another great performer, leftist and Spurs supporter.
    ____________________
    Probably, but Barry and he were great mates. Check out this 4 part vid of the two of them engaging in some witty repartee:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH7PYdByWao

  39. Oh god no more soccer. Can we go back to bagging Sales. Yes she is hopeless if the conversation goes off her prepared agenda. Boring as bat shit.

  40. “Firefox

    I sometimes rib a few American-born Australians I know about this – back under the Crown after nearly 250 years!”

    Hehehe

  42. “I can understand now what people have been saying about struggling to get past “6” – but I think it is important to not let any fraction of your vote exhaust.”

    If you’re a lefty progressive you cant go too wrong with a vote that’s something like the following. Start with Greens, pick 4 left wing minors you like, then make Labor number 6 so that your preference will end up with them if it makes it through the others.

  44. Or Barry Humphries, but in character, alternating between Edna and Les.

    Nah, I will only take his character from Shock Treatment.

  45. but I think it is important to not let any fraction of your vote exhaust.

    Disagree. While I am never going to advocate “Vote informal because they all suck!” or anything like that, I feel like if my Senate ballot is still in the count and it’s deciding between a Rise Up Australia and Fraser Anning’s Neo-Nazis (or whatever his group is called) candidate, I’d rather it exhaust than add to the total of whoever arbitrarily got the higher ranking of the two.

  46. Firefox

    I suppose the problem is you never know who is going to be vying for the last spot – if for example Labor has two Senators and the Greens one and the LNP two after five spots have been done in Victoria, then there is a reasonable probability that the 6th could be a contest between various small parties and I hate the thought of someone slipping through the net – so I will likely number all columns (if I go above the line) and even then it is an eternal struggle as to who to put last, second last, third last etc.

    Rational Leftist

    I do see your point also – I just don’t want to see lots of exhausted ballots leading to someone unpleasant getting in because lots of their allies preferenced more fully and didn;t exhaust.

  47. Rocket Rocket @ #946 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 11:27 pm

    Firefox

    I suppose the problem is you never know who is going to be vying for the last spot – if for example Labor has two Senators and the Greens one and the LNP two after five spots have been done in Victoria, then there is a reasonable probability that the 6th could be a contest between various small parties and I hate the thought of someone slipping through the net – so I will likely number all columns (if I go above the line) and even then it is an eternal struggle as to who to put last, second last, third last etc.

    That is me. I wish we had an equal last symbol!

  50. Rational Leftist

    I do see your point also – I just don’t want to see lots of exhausted ballots leading to someone unpleasant getting in because lots of their allies preferenced more fully and didn;t exhaust.

    Oh I agree with that idea. Certainly I won’t be stopping at 6/12. I will keep going until I’ve at least given some preference to everyone not far right. That includes the Libs (who will be ranked extremely low but ranked nonetheless.) The far right is a plague and it needs to be stopped before it gets more mainstream traction.

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