First up, a new uComms/ReachTEL seat poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a 51-49 lead in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, which Labor’s Justine Keay won by 2.2% in 2016 and 2.3% in the Super Saturday by-election last September. Excluding the 4.5% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 35.1%, Liberal 40.0%, Nationals 3.7%, Greens 6.6% and United Australia Party 5.5%, which sounds consistent enough with the two-party headline. As per ReachTEL’s usual format, there was a forced response follow-up for the undecided – The Mercury reports 23.7% of them favoured Labor and 21.1% Liberal. The poll was conducted Monday night from a sample of 861. The same client and the same pollster produced a 54-46 lead for the Liberals in Bass at the start of the campaign, which most observers would have rated excessive.
Second, please note the post below dedicated to the seat of Gilmore – the first in a series of seat-related posts I will be unrolling every day from now until the big day.
Now to the the state of the betting markets. I can’t claim to be the internet’s best resource on this particular issue, as that title belongs to Mark the Ballot, whose reading of the collective market’s implied probability of a Coalition win leapt from 25.3% to 29.2% in the immediate wake of Monday’s Newspoll. I’m only following Ladbrokes, which had Labor on $1.25 and the Coalition on $3.90 a week ago; moved to Labor $1.35 and Coalition $3.15 after Newspoll; and has since moved back slightly to Labor, at $1.32 to the Coalition’s $3.30.
Ladbrokes’ seat odds (which are listed on the bottom right of each page on the electorate guide) now has Labor as favourites in 85 seats, down from 89 last week, with the Coalition up from 58 to 61. The Coalition are now favourites in Banks ($2.25 to $1.77, with Labor going from $1.62 to $2.00), Capricornia ($2.50 to $1.83, Labor from $1.57 to $1.91), Herbert ($2.50 to $1.65, Labor from $1.57 to $2.20) and Page ($1.90 to $1.80, Labor the other way round). However, independent Kevin Mack is now favoured in Farrer ($2.00 to $1.50, the Nationals from $1.70 to $2.20), making him one of six non-major party candidates to be rated favourites. Not among their number are Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth, who has slipped from $2.30 to $3.25 with the Liberals in from $1.57 to $1.33, or Zali Steggall in Warringah.
The Liberals have also been slashed from $6.50 to $2.80 in Corangamite, with Labor out from $1.10 to $1.40, and the market seems to have noticed the frequency of leaders’ visits to the Northern Territory, with Labor out from $1.18 to $1.50 in Solomon and the Country Liberals in from $4.00 to $2.40. However, Labor’s odds have shortened in Reid ($1.27 to $1.22, Liberals from $3.25 to $4.00) and La Trobe ($1.53 to $1.40, Liberals from $2.40 to $3.00).
Clem, racism is about more than words. There are aspects of power inequality, active discrimination etc. as well. In an Australian context, AFAIK, noone has ever suffered serious discrimination or disadvantage for being British. OTOH, many of those of Mediterranean descent, the Irish and pretty much everyone of non European origin * has*, and, for most of the last 250 years have not been part of the ruling class, have had no recourse. So no, Wog Bastard, Irish Bastard, Lebbo Bastard or Abo Bastard are all, generally, entirely unacceptable. Unless cheerfully adopted by those to whom they apply. But Pommy Bastard? Give me a break. We’re hardly an underprivileged, downtrodden minority and never have been. Thin skinned, whingeing Pommy wankers.
The legacy of the past ten years of Greens puritanism is that even today a pissant like Leigh Sales can tie up valuable national broadcaster air time arguing with Bill Shorten about whether the cost of not completely fucking-up the planet (and everything on it) is worth a few greedy pensioners not getting their freebie handouts from the ATO, presumably so they can continue to run their luxury motor yachts out of Fremantle marina.
This is where we are, ten years after the entire issue should have been up and running and on the way to its third or fourth generation, most likely leading the world (as we bloody-well should be, after polluting it so comprehensively in the past).
Way back in 2009 the Greens said they were holding out for something better, and a decade later we have Sweet.Fuck.All.
That is the situation in 2019, and no amount of tree-hugging, weasel-worded kumba-ya from the do-nothing Greens will change that.
clem attlee reminds me of this guy:
Bushfire Bill @ #845 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 10:02 pm
And there would be no bloody Adani mine to whinge about because world-leading Climate Change action over a dozen years would have seen to it that no new coal mine in Australia would be viable anymore!
Yeah, Warren Mitchell, great actor, left winger and Spurs supporter, yep Cat, that’s me, alright, ha, ha minus the actor bit!
Having now watched the 7:30 Sales Shorten interview??
If i was a Coalition supporter i would be bagging Sales big time. 🙂
It was no foot rub for Shorten, but nothing he couldn’t handle easily.
I dont think Sales tone and questions reflect at all badly on her.
If she goes the same tone with ScoMo then she will have done reasonable and balanced treatment.
Hugh B the language is designed to disparage, it is pejorative, it is lazy, so why use it? Gee, some on here think they’re an extra from the film Gallipoli.
Epitome of the ineffectual Pommie whinger was Alf Garnett. That’s who you remind me of.
The Daily Telecrap is advertising- “subscribe before you decide”. Trying to kill two birds with one stone.
“And there would be no bloody Adani mine to whinge about because world-leading Climate Change action over a dozen years would have seen to it that no new coal mine in Australia would be viable anymore!”
The CPRS wasn’t “world-leading” in 2009, and due to its inflexible design would certainly not have been world-leading in 2019, even in the bizarre counter-factual that somehow ALP implosion never happened, and Abbott never repealed anyway.
You people need a better bedtime story.
It’s a democracy Crankmomma, you can express your prejudices freely.
To be fair, no one else was likely to congratulate this scandal-plagued twerp. So he had to step up himself!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/01/well-done-me-angus-taylor-praises-himself-as-fantastic-in-twitter-fail
“Hanson is rabbiting on about evil vegans.”
I dont get Skynooze but have seen a ref to this before?
Is it actually true or urban legend / joke?
I mean…..i have sympathy for people afflicted with veganism just not the painfully evangelical ones who should be force fed raw red meat until they recant……..
Saw Richo interview the bloke who runs Newspoll tonight and a couple of interesting things came out of it.
1. They don’t use phone contact anymore. It’s all done online and with robo polling.
2. He thinks that as long as Labor keeps their nerve and makes no mistakes they should win.
Richo also said he thinks the Liberals ads are much better than Labor’s, an opinion which seems to be shared by a number of people here. It will be interesting to see if the quality and quantity of them improves in the last couple of weeks.
Lets see if she allows Morrison to motor mouth over her with;
a) Shorten cant tell you how much it will cost and
b) we do have climate policy and will easily will meet our climate obligations
If she allows that through then she and the ABC can go walk out the door, dont turn around now, ’cause you’re not welcome anymore.
FrankingCredits story in https://www.yasstribune.com.au/story/6099293/morrison-giving-shorten-enough-rope/?cs=9397
“Can you nail the bastard in three weeks?” Mr Johnson asked to laughter from the crowd on Wednesday.
Darn
Yep. Richo is right. Labor’s ads so far are ineffectual
People say the Tories have no money, but their ads are opening just about every time I open a web page, the Labor ones not at all.
Why not. I’m a Pommy bastard. The twats on 7.30 were definitely whingeing Pommy bastards. I strongly suspect from your posts that you’re a whingeing Pommy bastard. No Pommy bastard in the history of Australia has been significantly disadvantaged by being one or by being called one. If your thresh for something being abusive is so low and trivial your life must be utterly miserable, even by Pollbludger standards.
And now I must withdraw as I’ve just discovered today that my blood pressure causes doctors to test it with three different machines to make sure the first one wasn’t broken. Eek.
Haven’t seen much feedback on the Toots suggesting Shorten did a bad job on 7:30, even from Lib supporters.
I thought 7:30 was very good for Shorten, and it might have been the hostile questions that got him there.
The bit where Sales annoyed me was she asked Shorten what he had to say to some miner in QLD about Adani. He started listing all sorts of reasons a miner should vote ALP and she said that was off limits. She bought it up!
Funnily, it was about then that Shorten kicked into gear. The best I’ve seen of him in this campaign.
Frankly I don’t care if she lets Morrison rabbit on about Shorten and Labor. I think it’s beginning to wear thin.
Dude from a tas paper was on sky talking up lnp chances in braddon, mentioned a new poll having them on same primary as by election
“1. Acknowledge that you simply did not have the numbers in 2008-10 in the senate to negotiate anything with labor that could have passed without also bring8ng on board other votes. In other words Labor + Greens wasn’t enough.”
The Greens weren’t important enough. And yet the Greens are the only ones to blame.
“2. Admit that your party’s demands were even more unacceptable to any other potential dance partner”
Recap: in June 2009, Milne articulated the principles that Greens would and would not compromise on. You can see that address here. https://vimeo.com/5282859
As it happens, these are *exactly* the principles that the ALP, and independents found acceptable a year and a half later.
family first (obviously) but also Xenophon.
“the ongoing Labor leadership shenanigans simply made no difference”
I have this lovely bridge for sale.
“We’ll take our chances elsewhere, even if it means a DD. Or a decade in opposition.”
Of course, because the ALP is a responsible party of government, concerned with making a difference.
“You are getting nothing from nobody. Ever”
Well, what can you expect from purists who would never compromise?
clem @ 10:04 pm
Yeah, Warren Mitchell, great actor, left winger and Spurs supporter
No way. Naturally, Alf was a fervent supporter of West Ham.
Surely this whole ‘inflexible’ talking point, and the crazy brave extrapolation to 2019 has been debunked by history. The whole Gillard carbon price scheme was legislated and revoked within a couple of years. It was always an idiotic stupid lie, but you’d have to be brain dead to be repeating it now. Goddess have mercy. This wins the prize for the stupidest, least connect to reality claim ever posted on pollbludger. It is insanely dumb. Even Frank at his angry worst wouldn’t have gone to such a dumb place.
Corio, no I beg to differ as a big Spurs fan, Alf was West Ham, But Warren Mitchell was Spurs, one of our most famous fans. RIP.
I too would like to see punchier ads from labor. Ones attacking the rorts and the chaos.
simon k
agree
can’t walk in sync. looks away to person addressed. talks to key phrases words. cannot smile (witness debate). no rhetorical pauses, saliency, repetition, stories, entertainment.
autism? shyness? union role? can’t work manner out.
what was party thinking?
but truly no worse that all leaders on other wise for past two decades (including johnnie)
but that is party for govt, give them freedom to do their best, there is an awful lot more still to do to bring this country up to 21st century
We’re hardly an underprivileged, downtrodden minority and never have been. Thin skinned, whingeing Pommy wankers.
Don’t waste your irony, Hugh. Clem doesn’t get it. He’d rather pontificate and judge about use of a harmless word, part of (as you indicate) the Australian vernacular, than address the point that these people were ready to rip off the taxpayer rather than be accused of… ripping off the taxpayer! As you put it ” thin skinned, whingeing Pommy wankers.”
The way their scam works is less unpleasant than just applying for a pension. Wouldn’t want to get their boat shoes dirty, now would they, by queueing up at Centrelink? So undignified, that.
To the Clems of this world form will always triumph over substance. Purity over practicality. Self-congratulation over outcome.
burgey
I would like to see more colourful positive ads for environment justice education etc – songs, people, earth. new patriotism
“subscribe before you commit suicide” would be closer to the mark.
Anyway, what I actually came here for was to ask about the Disendorsed/resigned candidate scoreboard. I haven’t been paying close attention but we have (not counting last minute replacements or potential §44 violations), I think
Lib: 2
ALP: 1
PHON: 1
Have I missed any? (Surely I have.)
“My heritage is mostly Irish. Green on my father’s side and orange on my mother’s. The most recent on either side is 4 generations ago . They raised three atheists. However, In recent years I have moved to agnostic. I have decided that I can no more claim that there is no god than I others can claim there is a god. We are not capable of knowing. If the Christians a right Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison are going to heaven and Keith Richards is going to hell. I would rather spend eternity with Keith. I agree “Ireland Forever”.
***
Yeah I get my Irish heritage from both sides too. The citizenship comes from my mum’s side though as she is a citizen which made me eligible. They both had religious upbringings but are now atheists.
Fair point on the atheism vs agnosticism. I tend to go with the best explanation that science can give us as more evidence becomes available to us. As you say, we don’t know, so all we can go on is what we do actually know now or what our best theories are.
Although, having said that, science has already disproven some religious claims. The age of the Earth and the Universe being one such example. You can go outside right now and look up into the night sky and see light from distant stars that is billions of years old. Beautiful and awe inspiring.
Now, let me be clear, I have no issue if someone genuinely believes that everything was made 6,000-10,000 years ago by their god in 6 days. I don’t agree and I would point to the evidence that I believe disproves that, but if someone wants to believe that then that is their right. Apparently something like 37% of Americans do believe in Young Earth Creationism according to a poll I just saw from 2017. Much more than I would have thought actually.
At the same time though, science doesn’t have all the answers either. Not even close. We’ve only just begun to dip the tip of our toe into the unimaginably vast (perhaps even infinite?) ocean of space that makes up our universe. The truth is we don’t really know much at all.
If you ask me though, aliens are far, far more likely to exist than gods. In fact, considering that it’s already been proven that the universe can support life in the right circumstances (Earth), given the enormous (maybe infinite?) size of the universe, it would be incredible if there wasn’t something else out there. Life may even be very rare, but in a very large universe, very rare could mean millions of inhabited planes.
Oh boy. How did I get from Irish citizenship to that! Haha. Talk about going off on a tangent!
clem @ 10:24 pm
Alf was West ham, But Warren Mitchell was Spurs
Apologies. He obviously was a great actor then 🙂
The element that I always notice that’s missing from the Labor ads is attention to the sound. From the sound track to attention grabbing noises, they don’t seem to pay any attention to it on the ads I have seen. Sound adds a lot, and is often what makes you look up from what you’re doing and pay attention to the TV.
BB, as I said, refer to them as Tory bastards all you like. WTF? What does my opposition to using the pejorative have to do with accepting their rorts? You just don’t like being called out. See I did all that without swearing at you once. Self control is the key my friend!
Simon² Katich® says Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 9:55 pm
I think he does best when he drops the scripted remarks and is prepared to go off message. It’s probably why he does well in town halls.
There’s a similarity between Bill and Julia in some ways.
Clem, never met a Tottenham supporter in 50 odd years of playing and following.
He sure was, one of best, a great Shakespearean too. His Othello was something to see. Mitchell was Richard Burton’s best friend, as they went to Oxford together and continued their friendship on the stage. He was a great man and I’m chuffed that Catmomma says I remind her of him.
“Surely this whole ‘inflexible’ talking point, and the crazy brave extrapolation to 2019 has been debunked by history. The whole Gillard carbon price scheme was legislated and revoked within a couple of years. It was always an idiotic stupid lie, but you’d have to be brain dead to be repeating it now. Goddess have mercy. This wins the prize for the stupidest, least connect to reality claim ever posted on pollbludger. It is insanely dumb. Even Frank at his angry worst wouldn’t have gone to such a dumb place.”
You flatter me. But I’m not sure what your point is.
The CEF was better than the CPRS, in exactly the ways articulated by Milne in June 2009. And yes, it was repealed within a few years. Yet the PB Laborista counterfactual is that the CPRS could never have been repealed ever.
Out Side Left, you need to get around more then, lol. We have a pretty good support base over here. Spurs, a real football club, not lottery winners supported by plastics.
Interesting to see this piece on Shorten in The Daily Mail. Pretty much your standard ‘puff-piece’ bio, which is surprising considering the normal tone of this outlet. But most surprising is the summary of Labor’s policies at the end of the article.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6833497/How-Bill-Shorten-went-unpopular-political-warlord-Australias-likely-PM.html
Im pleased to report to all the assembled Bludgers that I haven’t read one *single* post in the ALP-Green stoushfest that has been going on for weeks.
I skim and then skip if its about that boring rubbish.
Eyes on the prize people: take out the Tory trash then you can have your squabble*.
(*which I still wont read…)
“Firefox
So you left a Free Republic, and now you are back under the Crown. Very sad.”
Nay, I was born a subject of Her Majesty here in Australia. My Irish citizenship is via heritage. Yes, very sad. It’s about time we got on with fixing that hey.
You’re a better person than I, Lefty.
So update my Disendorsement Scoreboard, if you can.
@bug1
Am in Braddon, and I would believe that.
It’s the ‘not Brett Whiteley’ factor, bringing a shift back to the LNP, unfortunately.
Also LNP corflutes galore up here
If there’s a new government after this election, that does need to be a conversation that needs restarting. From term one. Not towards the end of the government’s life when it’s desperate to be relevant.
It’s been 20 years. It’s time.
(And I know the republic issue goes beyond just the government of the day but they’re in the front seat of agenda-setting)
Yep the republic is something that should be front and centre in Labor’s next campaign if they win office this time around. i reckon younger voters would be right up for it.
That the whingers on 7.30 are Poms is actually significant. Being affluent and, presumably, having citizenship of another OECD country, they do have the option of going and being affluent elsewhere if they feel that Australia no longer offers them a standard of living acceptable to them. Many of those reliant on the taxpayer funded services that their franking credits gifts could otherwise pay for do not have that option.