Odds and sods: week three

Betting market continue to favour Labor – but Monday’s Newspoll narrowing seems to have prompted movement to the Coalition, who have gained favouritism in three of their own marginals and one of Labor’s.

First up, a new uComms/ReachTEL seat poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a 51-49 lead in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, which Labor’s Justine Keay won by 2.2% in 2016 and 2.3% in the Super Saturday by-election last September. Excluding the 4.5% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 35.1%, Liberal 40.0%, Nationals 3.7%, Greens 6.6% and United Australia Party 5.5%, which sounds consistent enough with the two-party headline. As per ReachTEL’s usual format, there was a forced response follow-up for the undecided – The Mercury reports 23.7% of them favoured Labor and 21.1% Liberal. The poll was conducted Monday night from a sample of 861. The same client and the same pollster produced a 54-46 lead for the Liberals in Bass at the start of the campaign, which most observers would have rated excessive.

Second, please note the post below dedicated to the seat of Gilmore – the first in a series of seat-related posts I will be unrolling every day from now until the big day.

Now to the the state of the betting markets. I can’t claim to be the internet’s best resource on this particular issue, as that title belongs to Mark the Ballot, whose reading of the collective market’s implied probability of a Coalition win leapt from 25.3% to 29.2% in the immediate wake of Monday’s Newspoll. I’m only following Ladbrokes, which had Labor on $1.25 and the Coalition on $3.90 a week ago; moved to Labor $1.35 and Coalition $3.15 after Newspoll; and has since moved back slightly to Labor, at $1.32 to the Coalition’s $3.30.

Ladbrokes’ seat odds (which are listed on the bottom right of each page on the electorate guide) now has Labor as favourites in 85 seats, down from 89 last week, with the Coalition up from 58 to 61. The Coalition are now favourites in Banks ($2.25 to $1.77, with Labor going from $1.62 to $2.00), Capricornia ($2.50 to $1.83, Labor from $1.57 to $1.91), Herbert ($2.50 to $1.65, Labor from $1.57 to $2.20) and Page ($1.90 to $1.80, Labor the other way round). However, independent Kevin Mack is now favoured in Farrer ($2.00 to $1.50, the Nationals from $1.70 to $2.20), making him one of six non-major party candidates to be rated favourites. Not among their number are Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth, who has slipped from $2.30 to $3.25 with the Liberals in from $1.57 to $1.33, or Zali Steggall in Warringah.

The Liberals have also been slashed from $6.50 to $2.80 in Corangamite, with Labor out from $1.10 to $1.40, and the market seems to have noticed the frequency of leaders’ visits to the Northern Territory, with Labor out from $1.18 to $1.50 in Solomon and the Country Liberals in from $4.00 to $2.40. However, Labor’s odds have shortened in Reid ($1.27 to $1.22, Liberals from $3.25 to $4.00) and La Trobe ($1.53 to $1.40, Liberals from $2.40 to $3.00).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

984 comments on “Odds and sods: week three”

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  1. And with impeccable timing it’s Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here’s Michelle Grattan talking to our very own William Bowe after the debate in Perth.
    Fairfax has come up with something similar to the ABC’s Vote Compass.
    Shane wright thinks a slowdown in the national property market has delivered the Reserve Bank a chance to slice interest rates in the midst of the federal election campaign as evidence grows of deflationary pressures and consumers winding back their spending.
    Bloomberg says that anyone who still thinks Australia’s economy is an all-conquering model of perfection is likely to get a wake-up call soon.
    Shane Wright opines that Clive Palmer, the man who Scott Morrison says will do less damage to the economy than Labor or the Greens, has a policy agenda which would blow a huge hole in the budget and could hit the superannuation returns of millions of Australians.
    Labor has flatly rejected one of the Coalition’s most persistent attack lines of the 2019 campaign, saying it is “impossible” to cost the impact of its climate policy because it is a pollution limit, not a carbon price.
    With some justification Caitlin Fitzsimmons explains why convenience voting has gone too far.
    Ross Gittins writes that we need to get education and training right at every level, from childcare (these days renamed ECEC – “early childhood education and care”), preschool, primary and secondary school, vocational education and training, and university. He says money alone will not deliver this.
    John Collett examines Labor’s $3000 cap on claims for tax advice and concludes that with a typical cost of managing tax affairs for individuals of less than $200, Labor’s proposal allowing a further $2800 to be claimed for those who need it, such as those who are audited by the tax office, are unlikely to cause too much fuss for taxpayers when it comes to casting their votes.
    Jennifer Hewett says that Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten have been racing for the political prize in Western Australia. But only one of them can read the state right.
    If Labor or the Coalition have to negotiate with the crossbench, they will face demands to block the Adani coal mine and take concrete action on climate change writes David Crowe.
    Latika Bourke tells us that Andrew Hastie has said he will not answer defamatory questions when asked about an encounter his colleague Ian Goodenough said the pair had with far-right activist Neil Erikson. How on earth can a simple question be “defamatory”?
    Stephen Hall writes about the ten election issues not addressed by Morrison and Shorten.
    Peter Lewis reckons Bill Shorten’s path to victory is to avoid a two-man slugfest.
    Almost 40% of United Australia party candidates do not live in the electorates they are standing for, and the party has recruited senior executives from Clive Palmer’s mining interests to fill its ranks.
    The Coalition Government’s climate performance over the past five years is the defining leadership failure of the past decade, according to a detailed report from the Climate Council.
    Claiming credit for pension indexation is like giving yourself a medal for getting up in the morning, says Bill Shorten. He same goes for “record spending” on health and education.
    Cara Waters makes a good point here where she says politicians courting the vote of the nation’s small businesses should look no further than the lifeblood issue of getting paid on time.
    Surging crude prices are posing another headwind for the world economy after President Donald Trump’s “zero” pledge on Iran oil sales.
    A call for the resignation of the NBN Board goes to the heart of the NBN issue. Why did we build the NBN? What was the original vision? And why was the government willing to invest? Some questions from Paul Budde.
    In this op-ed Thomas Keneally says that we should respect Abbott but vote him out.
    Jacqui Maley writes that according to new polling a majority of voters believe childcare should be a tax deductible expense, that many of our politicians are sexist, that women should comprise at least half of parliamentarians, and that the government should do more to reduce the gender pay gap.
    Crispin Hull (haven’t seen too much form him lately) says that a sustainable Australian population can be achieved without losing multiculturalism.
    Michael west writes that Tony Abbott has come under pressure from Warringah independent candidate Zali Steggall over the government’s decision to approve the sale of the new Northern Beaches Hospital, and 42 other Australian hospitals, to an obscure company in the Cayman Islands.
    Poor Pauline is sick of the men who are attracted to her and her ragtag party.
    Sarah Hanson-Young has accused David Leyonhjelm of sexism on her second day in the witness stand in her defamation case against the former senator.
    In an interesting contribution Tony Walker explains why this election is posing problems for the media.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that in what is both a pragmatic and highly symbolic decision, Virgin has restructured an agreement with Boeing that would have seen it taking delivery of the first of 40 of the troubled 737 MAX 8 planes in November.
    Campaigners against a notorious government hospital being run for profit are a step closer in their fight to have the site returned to public control.
    Owners of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been warned the Australian Tax Office has a new data matching program to ensure those trading in the digital asset are paying their fair share of tax. And about tine too!
    Telstra has put industry lobby groups on notice over their positions on climate change, following major Australian companies such as Westpac and Rio Tinto.
    Cole Latimer reports that the energy watchdog has launched a regulated electricity price that will slash power bills for almost 800,000 households across NSW, Queensland and South Australia from July.
    Elle Hardy lifts the lid on Pentecostals, saying that they aren’t tongues-talking hicks – they are slick Australian exports.
    After 20 years of asset valuation increases, a reckoning is coming for shopping centres as willing buyers and sellers inevitably make deals at much lower prices.
    The UK Guardian says that with the delay to Brexit, Westminster has retreated into fantasy again.
    There seems to be a military supported coup happening in Venezuela at the moment.
    The president who has nothing to hide has sued to stop Deutsche Bank from disclosing certain accounts.
    An Australian cricketer has walked away with today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    What could one possibly say about this David Rowe effort?

    What a little beauty from Cathy Wilcox! Yes, where are they?

    Fiona Katauskas nicely summarises Morrison’s campaign efforts.

    From Matt Golding.

    Sean Leahy has found the One Nation recruiting station.

    Zanetti and Palmer’s influence.

    Michael Leunig and the “nodders”.

    Jon Kudelka and Porline’s campaign journey.

    From the US.

  2. Some more on Braddon from KB

    #Braddon @AFPAonline commissioned ReachTEL 51-49 Liberal off raw primaries of Lib 38.2, ALP 33.5, Green 6.3, UAP 5.3, Nat 3.5, ON 3.9, Other 4.8, “Undecided” 4.5 (who were leaning slightly to Keay). Brakey not named in readout. #politas
    I will say it again. Ucomms in Tassie is like a geisha girl in a gay bar- it never works out on election day – Bass, Braddon and Lyons. Remember the three Amigo’s having a celebratory dinner with the cyborg Senator in Burnie a week before the 2016 election ? Their internal polling and Ucomm’s said they had those seats in the bag..gone, gone gone after the election. They won’t be back anytime soon.

    Good morning BK and thank you again for my breakfast reading.

  3. Labor has flatly rejected one of the Coalition’s most persistent attack lines of the 2019 campaign, saying it is “impossible” to cost the impact of its climate policy because it is a pollution limit, not a carbon price.

    Thank goodness Labor have finally gotten their heads around this.

  4. Trump is terrified that Deutsche Bank records will expose him as ‘a clown living on credit’: Rick Wilson

    Anti-Trump Republican strategist Rick Wilson on Tuesday said that the Trump family’s decision to sue Deutsche Bank and Capital One to stop them from turning over Trump-related financial records was very revealing.

    In particular, he found it notable that the entire Trump family seems to be putting its weight behind trying to stop these financial institutions from giving information to congressional investigators.

    Wilson then explained that the moment when he realized Trump was a financial paper tiger came when a hedge fund manager told him that Trump’s entire empire was largely built on smoke and mirrors.

    “Trump’s not a billionaire,” the hedge fund manager told him. “I’m a billionaire. Trump is a clown living on credit.”


  5. Rebellion brewing inside Fox News as relentlessly pro-Trump coverage alienates advertisers and the network’s own journalists

    Producers, reporters, executives and Fox News hosts are battling one another over the conservative network’s direction in the Trump era.

    Fox Corp. CEO Lachlan Murdoch is struggling to cool the long-running feud between the network’s journalists and its prime-time hosts, while also placating advertisers and President Donald Trump, according to Vanity Fair‘s Gabriel Sherman.

    “Reporters are telling management that we’re being defined by the worst people on our air,” a senior Fox staffer told the magazine.



  6. The Opposition Leader will be back in Melbourne today, with the Prime Minister focussing his efforts in Townsville. After their few days in the west, the leaders have returned to the two states that will decide this election. Both Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison will come together again on Friday night for the Sky News/Courier Mail People’s Forum live from Brisbane.

  7. but Monday’s Newspoll narrowing seems to have prompted movement to the Coalition,

    It shows the 2pp is misleading

    Which saw the Libs/nats combined primary vote dropped from 39% – 38 %

    The libs/nats combined primary vote needs to be 43%+ to make the election close

  8. 10:30 AM
    United Australia Party Leader Clive Palmer will address the media in Sydney.
    12:30 PM
    The Greens Leader Richard Di Natale will address the National Press Club in Canberra.

  9. All things given the Coalition must be pretty happy with their campaign so far with the hopes of clinging on still alive. The only logical conclusion to me is that the polls are underestimating Labor’s support, just as the seat polls prior to the Super Saturday by elections.

  10. The Mueller report: A catalog of 77 Trump team lies and falsehoods

    The Mueller report documents at least 77 specific instances where President Donald Trump’s campaign staff, administration officials and family members, Republican backers and his associates lied or made false assertions (sometimes unintentionally) to the public, Congress, or authorities, according to a new CNN analysis. The plurality of lies came from Trump himself, and most of them took place while he was president.


  11. The pro coalition media and news ltd/corp hacks have run out of material , all they are doing now to election day is the outdated personal smear attack on Shorten/Labor members and other non coalition members, also the outdated Labor and the greens being a coalition.

    Honestly it shows pro coalition media and news ltd/corp hacks are that too unintelligent to realise this Labor/Greens alliance attack won’t work ,after all its the same hacks and libs/nats keep on telling the public . it’s no secret that the greens will prefer Labor over the libs/nats on majority of things

  12. Malcolm Farr:

    Clive Palmer was today to have been in Manly, Sydnry, with an affordable housing announcement.
    Just minutes ago cancelled the press conference.

  13. As usual, Rowe’s cartoons are spot on. And as usual, spotting the subtle little additions are just as fun.
    That seemingly top-hatted shadow in the door- way behind Poorline. Any guesses?

  14. @lynlinking

    Senator admits how-to-vote card is false
    Liberal Senator Molan The man who stopped the boats. The man who led coalition forces to success in Iraq. The man who is fighting for our nation’s fuel security
    The Verdict Mostly False excerpt
    canberratimes.com.au/story/6099039/… via @canberratimes

  15. Morning all. Thanks BK for the excellent roundup. Clive’s nonsense is well exposed. It shows people voting for him are voting for an image or promise not a reality. But that also shows the majors are not delivering to them.

    I really wish Labor had not tried to be “clever” with Adani and simply promised to oppose it with other measures fir north Qld. Even in SE Qld that would have won votes. Labors economic policies are hands down better than ScumMo’s lies about tax cuts combined with surpluses.

  16. Fairfax Vote Thingy:

    For my seat of Robertson:
    1. Anne Charlton
    The Australian Labor Party
    2. Cath Connor
    Australian Greens
    3. Lucy Wicks
    The Liberal Party of Australia

    Nice lady The Greens candidate. Complete opposite of Greens here. 🙂

  17. @CartWheelPrint

    Liberal MP Andrew Hastie clashes with Anglican priest after bid to rally religious support thewest.com.au/politics/feder… Getting a really bad feeling about all of this. #auspol  #ausvotes 

  18. Onebobsworth

    Top hat —> usually Turnbull.

    A previous Turnbull shadow. With a bonus Tony wearing a top hat for a change.

  19. When did the Cayman Is. become part of the Commonwealth of Australia!
    Commonwealth is a bit of a misnomer!
    Dan Tehan, the erstwhile minister might be right about Australia becoming a communist country complete with corruption at the top.
    LNP corruption and malpractice should bs the main issue in this election and may well be yet.
    What a pathetic media we have had fostered upon us.

  20. Have a lovely day, C@t, Briefly, Grimace, and anyone else out and about today. As a very occasional poster, just thought I’d let you know I appreciate your work.

  21. Goll

    Dan Tehan, the erstwhile minister might be right about Australia becoming a communist country complete with corruption at the top.

    Tehan was misheard. He actually said ‘a Caymanist country’ and on that I agree.

  22. Just caught Greens leader RDN on ABC RN… he came across well I thought, and there was none of the “Labor and Liberals are the same” crap from the past… he was very clear that he thought the Liberals should be turfed out.

  23. rhwombat

    Time to drive them into the dry bed of the Darling

    Could we wait until a cyanobacter bloom is in full swing and then chuck them in ?

  24. Moksha says:
    Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 7:49 am
    Just caught Greens leader RDN on ABC RN… he came across well I thought, and there was none of the “Labor and Liberals are the same” crap from the past… he was very clear that he thought the Liberals should be turfed out.

    Reality bites. Hopefully all his troops were listening.

  25. Was in Wangaratta yesterday so spent an hour or so at prepoll.

    Firstly, never seen so many people handing out HTVs outside prepoll before. (Might be that there’s only one booth open at present). Not a single Green, though (I’m not happy about that, the Green candidate is someone I’ve campaigned with in the past and I like her).

    Secondly, rocked up and the Liberals hander outers immediately came up and gave me a big hug. Parents of ex students of mine. Damn it. I was all ready to be sneery.

    The Liberals are splashing money around in ways I’ve never seen up here. Big truck with revolving billboard on side pulled up on other side of road. Despite the several changing messages and images, no mention of the PM. Possibly didn’t want to waste money promoting someone who might not still be there.

    The old time hander outers were all very chummy as usual. The Orange people kept themselves aloof (they really don’t get local politics).

    McGowan making a big deal of a Fin Review article which touts Indi as getting the most pork over the last year. However, same article notes that the bulk of this funding is for the Melbourne/Wodonga rail line, which goes through several electorates, and has been put in the “Indi” box for convenience. Without it, Indi has got very little.

  26. Dennis Atkins
    The question of #AusVotes2019 How did the Coalition get hijacked by a two-bit shyster?

    How did the Coalition get hijacked by a two-bit shyster?
    It’s said an election campaign provides an MRI of the soul for the combatants when challengers pit themselves against each other.

  27. The federal government should invest heavily in increasing the supply of good quality public housing.

    Tenants’ rights should be strengthened.

    Rent controls should be enacted.

    Tax policy should reflect the principle that the purpose of housing is to house people, not to accumulate wealth and minimize tax.

    Finding a place to rent is still an impossible dream for many low-income Australians
    Greg Jericho

    The 10th Anglicare rental affordability snapshot released on Monday shows that yet again the hope of finding a place to rent for many on government payments and minimum wage is an impossible dream – and will continue to be so without an urgent increase in social housing.


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