First up, a new uComms/ReachTEL seat poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a 51-49 lead in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, which Labor’s Justine Keay won by 2.2% in 2016 and 2.3% in the Super Saturday by-election last September. Excluding the 4.5% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 35.1%, Liberal 40.0%, Nationals 3.7%, Greens 6.6% and United Australia Party 5.5%, which sounds consistent enough with the two-party headline. As per ReachTEL’s usual format, there was a forced response follow-up for the undecided – The Mercury reports 23.7% of them favoured Labor and 21.1% Liberal. The poll was conducted Monday night from a sample of 861. The same client and the same pollster produced a 54-46 lead for the Liberals in Bass at the start of the campaign, which most observers would have rated excessive.
Second, please note the post below dedicated to the seat of Gilmore – the first in a series of seat-related posts I will be unrolling every day from now until the big day.
Now to the the state of the betting markets. I can’t claim to be the internet’s best resource on this particular issue, as that title belongs to Mark the Ballot, whose reading of the collective market’s implied probability of a Coalition win leapt from 25.3% to 29.2% in the immediate wake of Monday’s Newspoll. I’m only following Ladbrokes, which had Labor on $1.25 and the Coalition on $3.90 a week ago; moved to Labor $1.35 and Coalition $3.15 after Newspoll; and has since moved back slightly to Labor, at $1.32 to the Coalition’s $3.30.
Ladbrokes’ seat odds (which are listed on the bottom right of each page on the electorate guide) now has Labor as favourites in 85 seats, down from 89 last week, with the Coalition up from 58 to 61. The Coalition are now favourites in Banks ($2.25 to $1.77, with Labor going from $1.62 to $2.00), Capricornia ($2.50 to $1.83, Labor from $1.57 to $1.91), Herbert ($2.50 to $1.65, Labor from $1.57 to $2.20) and Page ($1.90 to $1.80, Labor the other way round). However, independent Kevin Mack is now favoured in Farrer ($2.00 to $1.50, the Nationals from $1.70 to $2.20), making him one of six non-major party candidates to be rated favourites. Not among their number are Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth, who has slipped from $2.30 to $3.25 with the Liberals in from $1.57 to $1.33, or Zali Steggall in Warringah.
The Liberals have also been slashed from $6.50 to $2.80 in Corangamite, with Labor out from $1.10 to $1.40, and the market seems to have noticed the frequency of leaders’ visits to the Northern Territory, with Labor out from $1.18 to $1.50 in Solomon and the Country Liberals in from $4.00 to $2.40. However, Labor’s odds have shortened in Reid ($1.27 to $1.22, Liberals from $3.25 to $4.00) and La Trobe ($1.53 to $1.40, Liberals from $2.40 to $3.00).
HughB
Cheers, drink up . 🙂
nath says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:27 pm
And how would you know?
Peter Stanton
says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:49 pm
nath says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:32 pm
I don’t blame you about Olivia. I had a crush on her when I was 7. I’ve always had a discerning eye, even as a pre-pubescent.
—————————–
Nath,
How is that 14 year old from Collingwood you spoke about a few months ago?
_______________________________
My first love? Not sure mate, how’s yours?
EB et al
Thank you for correcting me. I thought the proposal to exhaust the vote after six allocations was defeated in court as it meant that, in effect, some people’s votes literally didn’t count on the final tally. I’m very surprised and a little bit disconcerted.
Shorten showed ‘grace under pressure’ tonight and I would have no problem with Sales efforts if they were consistently replicated when she interview Tories. But that never happens much, instead she prefers to dine with them. BTW, did you check the accent on the ‘carpenter’? He was no carpenter and Shorten smelt that rat straight away by labelling him as dishonest.
Peter Stanton
The AEC wanted one week of pre-polls, and still want it.
I saw bits of Bill’s interview with Leigh Sales when the ads were on Masterchef (and I have to say, there weren’t many political ads on there tonight), and I thought he did as well as could be expected under the circumstances (the circumstances being, jeez he must be on the point of exhaustion-I know I am from doing 3 days of Pre Poll! Lol.) and also Leigh trying to get him back on point to answer her questions, even if they may have been trying to be gotchas some of the time, when all he seems to want to do now is hone the points he is trying to get through to people.
So, all in all, a bit like political speed dating. With both people still on friendly terms by the end, not a bad result.
“I have to ask. Is that orange or green.”
Are you asking whether I’m Protestant or Roman Catholic? Or which Ireland I was talking about?
For the first question, the answer is neither. I’m an atheist. Second, The Republic.
Yeah, that’s right, you Aussies can keep your Queen to yourselves! Ha! 😛
Éirinn go Brách!
Since I was the one who pointed out their ethnicity, can I just point out that the two whingers WERE Pommies?
One whingeing about having to give up his luxury boat, and the other just whingeing.
Re media bias:
The Murdochracy, at least the print wing, is acting like the propaganda arm of the Liberal party and have lost all credibility and trust for anyone wanting serious news.
The former Fairfax (now Nine) outlets seem still to be fairly unbiased in their reporting. They lean to the Coalition, no doubt they will write an editorial on May 17 directing their readers to vote Coalition, but they separate news from opinion and generally call it as they see it.
I don’t watch or listen to news on commercial TV or Radio. Most news reported seems to be trivial or sensationalist, political stories are populist and seem to be right-biased. Shoutback Radio, especially Sydney’s 2GB, is Far Right.
Then we come to the ABC, starved of resources, thoroughly cowed by a hostile Government, they are too scared to go too hard on Coalition policies and people. Labor are still fair game. Lacking the resources they once had to run an independent news service, they seem to take their cues on what to report from the morning papers, most of them published by guess who.
I thought leigh Sales was OK. Bill was too but it seemed she was racing to get the questions out in time.
Why not have the full 1/2 hr and concentrate on fewer questions and run it over 2 nights .
Diogenes
I seem to remember someone (?LDP) got elected last in a NSW Upper House election, they got 80,000 votes, and that there were by that stage 120,000 exhausted ones.
The word ‘bogan’ has been traced back to Xavier College as it’s likely origin to describe working class people:
https://theconversation.com/a-new-twist-in-the-elusive-quest-for-the-origins-of-the-word-bogan-leads-to-melbournes-xavier-college-113755
BB, if they were Italian, would you have called them wog whingers? I would guess not!
Actually the more I think about it, I think it’s really wrong that your vote exhausts in the Senate but not the Reps. If anything it should be the other way around. The Senate is meant to be a broad representation of opinion and Reps is more of a snapshot.
I always called myself a “clog-wog” Clem … it was a term of endearment
clem attlee
Are you trying to claim you have not heard the term pommy whinger?
I can claim to never have heard the term wog whinger.
I don’t want to enter politics so I can write.
The only way to fix a pommy whinger is to send them to England for a couple of weeks.
clem attlee says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 8:56 pm
So it would be okay to refer to someone as a ‘wog bastard’ would it HughB? If that is unacceptable than so is ‘pommy bastard.’ If you’re re happy to suffer the abuse then it’s down to you. Me, I am not too fazed, but I know that Italians don’t like being referred to as wogs and Asians don’t like being referred to as slopes, so we should draw a line under lazy pejorative labels.
————————————-
I have a very close friend. He is arrived in Australia from France in his teens. He has been an active liberals member for as long as I have been an active labor member. He refers to me as an Aussie bastard and I refer to him as a fucking frog. It is all in the context and the tone of voice. The term slopes may be an exception. It was used by the yanks to refer to the Vietnamese during the war of aggression against the Vietnamese.
nath says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 9:03 pm
My first love? Not sure mate, how’s yours?
——————————
Good response. How is mine?. I still think of her often.
Some people are snowflakes. Others are not.
nath says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 9:07 pm
The word ‘bogan’ has been traced back to Xavier College as it’s likely origin to describe working class people:
————————–
So it was originally a name to be proud of.
Firefox
So you left a Free Republic, and now you are back under the Crown. Very sad.
Anyone else watching you carn’t ask that on abc with x pollies
I was waiting for the ‘term of endearment’ excuse and it only took a nano second to come out. Jenauthor how you refer to yourself is down to you, but I have a problem with double standards regarding this stuff. Peter Stanton, what two mates say to each other is not really the same thing is it? Wog, pommy, dink, slope, towel head, THEY ARE ALL PEJORATIVE, so why use them? If you would not use one word on this list, you should not be using any. Anyway, I’m not getting bogged down in this as Sprocket has withdrawn his comment and I can see he was not being malicious. The smart arses are a different matter.
BB, if they were Italian, would you have called them wog whingers? I would guess not!
Fuck you with a sharp stick Clem. I have far better things to do than try to work my way around the PC hurdles that seem to rule your life, but mean bugger all to most, especially yours truly.
Fair dinkum, mate. How old are you? 16? Because reading the precious tosh you write as one of the self-appointed Moral Inviligilators of this site, anyone could be forgiven for thinking the most important thing in life was whether there were two m’s in Pommie, or just one.
Concentrate on the issues of that really matter, not the nitpicking minutae.
Catmomma… no.. no I said i wasn’t going to get bogged down…
Pollies bloody predictive txt
Julian Assange sentenced to 50 weeks for skipping bail, just short of the maximum: https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/assange-to-spend-almost-a-year-in-jail-over-skipping-bail-in-2012-20190501-p51j6w.html
Walked past albo at melb airport this morning, he must have just arrived. Was too slow to say something…
Shellbell @ #799 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 8:26 pm
When they had the death penalty, the hanging took place at most three weeks after the verdict. Appeal on trial procedure only, plea to the Home Secretary, pushing up daisies before the teapot got cold.
It seemed obvious to me that the intention of the Tories was to disenfranchise as many unfriendly voters as possible with that legislation. I suspect RDN was wanting to facilitate Green voters to not preference that nasty ALP.
Stephen Conroy is absolutely ripping into Pauline Hanson on Paul Murray Live. Paul is furious that someone’s daring to question Hanson on his show and is trying to run interference. Pauline looks like she’s about to spontaneously combust live on TV. Now Cory Bernardi is having a go at her. Ah I do so enjoy watching far right nutters attacking each other.
Oh Bushfire, I see I hit a raw nerve. Ha, no rational response so you resort to petty abuse. Says a lot about you methinks. Now what did I say… oh yeah, don’t get bogged down, lol.
“Not passing the CPRS was the definition of backing it up. It was a poor policy that deserved to be voted down in the form it was in. The Greens offered to negotiate with Rudd but he chose to try and pass it with the Coalition’s help instead. Looks like Shorten plans on following in Kevin’s footsteps.”
Firefly:
You either have a poor memory yourself or are dishonestly assuming that we do when you write this shit.
1. Acknowledge that you simply did not have the numbers in 2008-10 in the senate to negotiate anything with labor that could have passed without also bring8ng on board other votes. In other words Labor + Greens wasn’t enough.
2. Admit that your party’s demands were even more unacceptable to any other potential dance partner: family first (obviously) but also Xenophon.
3. Have some basic honesty to comprehend that the fundamental basis of your demands (initially that Labor agree to a minimum 40% CO2 reduction by 2020 and later a supposed ‘concession’ of a minimum 25% reduction) were based on a diplomatic fantasy: that either before or after Copenhagen that world would agree to such a reduction schedule.
Between November 2009 and January 2010 your team had a choice to make a real difference. A deal that would have put the reactionary conservatism on its arse in this country for a generation. A deal that could and would have been improved with time. Especially when the CRPS was enevitably synchronised with the European scheme in 2013-15.
How is that 25% minimum demand looking now Firefly. Let alone that 40% fantasy, you Feckless wonder.
Lastly, have the honesty to grasp that the arse fell out of the Gillard-Greens Government the very month the ETS was announced and for that reason (the ongoing Labor leadership shenanigans simply made no difference – other than the fact that Rudd 2.0 probably saved 20 labor seats). If the demise of the last Labor government fell because of Labor Leadershit then how do you explain the 500,000 voters would walked away from the Greens in the 2013 senate election? Answer: you can’t. Not honestly anyway.
So the wiggle is pleading for one sort of redux (the glory of the Gillard years) whilst threatening another redux (the 2009 Greens intransigence).
From Labor: fuck you on both of these possibilities. We’ll take our chances elsewhere, even if it means a DD. Or a decade in opposition. Better than than swallowing your shite. The wiggle and Brown have already cost Labor pretty much every possible seat we would have otherwise won in Queensland and probably cost us Herbert. You are getting nothing from nobody. Ever.
I’m sure BB will want to change his views and his ways, but the bloody whinging poms, have invaded Australia, ran the place (quite badly) directly for a long time, and indirectly still do through old lizzy and phil the greek. If it is an ethnic slur at all it is a punching up ethnic slur. I’m also pretty comfy sledging the many mostly wealthy white South Africans we have. I tell them there are way more white South African lawyers in Perth than in South Africa and if they can’t send us some decent non-white South Africans lawyers, just don’t bother we don’t need any more of the pasty white ones.
@Anthony Klan:
****SCOOP****
The two farms at the heart of the water buyback scandal – Kia Ora and Clyde in Qld – have been sold, along with Eastern Australia Agriculture. However the structure of the deal means the actual price paid may never be made public. #transparency #auspol #watergate
Firefox says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 9:05 pm
“I have to ask. Is that orange or green.”
Are you asking whether I’m Protestant or Roman Catholic? Or which Ireland I was talking about?
For the first question, the answer is neither. I’m an atheist. Second, The Republic.
Yeah, that’s right, you Aussies can keep your Queen to yourselves! Ha!
Éirinn go Brách!
———————————–
My heritage is mostly Irish. Green on my father’s side and orange on my mother’s. The most recent on either side is 4 generations ago . They raised three atheists. However, In recent years I have moved to agnostic. I have decided that I can no more claim that there is no god than I others can claim there is a god. We are not capable of knowing. If the Christians a right Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison are going to heaven and Keith Richards is going to hell. I would rather spend eternity with Keith. I agree “Ireland Forever”.
KB is keeping count…
Candidates known to have been disendorsed/resigned/withdrawn since election called:
Liberal 8
National 1
Labor 2
One Nation 1
#ausvotes
Methinks paraphrasing Bill Woodfull’s retort to Douglas Jardine is lacking in originality and creativity.
Bushfire Bill @ #809 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 8:35 pm
That boat guy should be sent to Nauru.
By Fergus Hunter
May 1, 2019 — 6.24pm
Tensions have flared on the campaign trail in the Sydney seat of Hughes, with a climate change activist filing a police complaint about the “intimidating” behaviour of Liberal MP Craig Kelly.
Mr Kelly has denied threatening to punch Peter Thompson — who was wearing a dinosaur costume bearing the words “Craig Kelly denialosaur” — when the two of them crossed paths at the Sutherland railway station on Wednesday morning.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/liberal-mp-denies-intimidating-climate-change-activist-in-a-dinosaur-suit-20190501-p51j5c.html
Oh now the nutters at Sky have resumed normal service and are getting stuck into the Greens and Hanson is rabbiting on about evil vegans.
Diogenes – a formal vote in the Senate should require the voter to number every square, sequentially. There should not be any above the line, the candidates should be Robson Rotated and no party affiliations should be included one the ballot paper. How to vote cards should not be distributed within 100m of a polling booth. Voters should be perfect, do their research and take their responsibility seriously. In this imperfect world filled with electors that really can’t be bothered, savings provisions can only go so far, but it’s far better that each elector’s will is followed as evidenced by the preferences they have given over those of the party they have gifted with their first preference.
Clem, it’s not petty abuse. You head’s in the wrong place mate. You care about things that don’t matter.
You have the smug self-satisfaction of someone who has neither seen nor done anything in life but nitpick others’ behaviour.
People like you in the past ran Inquisitions, Star Chambers and witchcraft trials. You think you’re a lefty, but you’re just a common or garden wowser, an old-fashioned bigot whose greatest delight lies in judging others, in order to make your pathetic self feel better for about the 5 minutes it takes until you find a new victim to mark down on your demented moral scale.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #834 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 9:01 pm
Yes, I like Bill Shorten shoving it back in the Greens face but I am going with Firefly being a Lib shit-stirrer. He is way too aggressive f0r a Green. At least The Greens try to use arguments, even if they are wrong or questionable and the ones on here are nice.
Zoidlord @ #836 Wednesday, May 1st, 2019 – 9:02 pm
Curioser and curioser.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019 at 9:36 pm
By Fergus Hunter
May 1, 2019 — 6.24pm
Tensions have flared on the campaign trail in the Sydney seat of Hughes, with a climate change activist filing a police complaint about the “intimidating” behaviour of Liberal MP Craig Kelly.
—————————————–
I struggle to see Kelly as being intimidating. Kelly trying to be intimidating would make you collapse with laughter.
At the time, as this was happening, my view formed, and has remained, that the greens played as hard as they did because the MSM and Canberra bubble assumed an easy, if not big re-elect and the LNP numbers from Howard’s big win before would drop out and be replaced by a majority Lab – Green, and at that point the greens could and would do a deal with the ALP that ‘was better’ and that they could claim the credit for.
And I feel for them as political operators having the ALP and LNP nearly agree on a key vote driver for your party, without you, would have felt bad and so they tantrum-ed.
Might all have been fine, a two or so year delay could have been over come with a tougher scheme, so long as Labor won. There were two problems with this, firstly you had politicians representing just under 60% of the electorate explicitly saying that no action on climate change was better than the proposed action.
Obviously the greens didn’t mean to destroy public support for action on climate change, they wanted much stronger support for much stronger action, but well it didn’t work, with Tony they smashed public acceptance of and support for, even a moderate scheme, from over 80% to well below 50%. They and Tony achieved the greatest turn around in public sentiment in Australia I can remember in a stunningly short period of time.
It was always insane to expect they’d be able to get support for action back later for a much tougher more expensive scheme with more immediate human suffering. The greens have always measured any action on climate change by how many jobs they can destroy in the very short term and so it just makes sense that people who need jobs embraced their argument that no action at all was a good path. And did not turn around, having rejected a very moderate, mild proposal and embrace greens carnage. In fact in the Gillard years they would be party to a fairly moderate scheme themselves, but they’d been so successful in there demands for extreme that Australia just didn’t believe it wouldn’t slaughter jobs. Neither Labor nor the Greens ever made the point that cap and trade system wasn’t supposed to cost much at all, it was supposed to drive innovation and change (to avoid the cost).
Finally the gamble that they would be able to drag Labor by the nose to whatever scheme they wanted with an easily re-elected Rudd Government, was never to eventuate. I might almost have respected them if they’d admitted their strategy and said ‘opps our bad’ but instead they tried to re-write history to pretend they didn’t work with Tony to destroy support from near 80% levels to sub 50% levels, instead they did the typical LNP liar strategy of just blaming labor. There were a couple of morons who believed them, they are frequently here sprouting the gospel of the easily fooled greeophile.
Just watching teh Sales interview: Bill’s totally killed her attempt to stick to costing bullshit.
He tore that crock a fresh one – fact: doing nothing will cost FAR MORE. He also nailed the LNP on how far behind business and the rest of the world those neanderthals are.
Thats all we need to know.
Watched 7.30. Sales did ok.
Is Bill Shorten two people? Seriously, he comes across as a wally; his phrasing flaps around like George Costanza playing basketball. But, if you engage and listen to the substance, he bombs 3 pointers from downtown.
I dont get him. He is quite weird… in a solid kinda way. I can see why peeps arent engaging with him yet I suspect enough are seeing through it to the substance – enough to get him through.