The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has followed Newspoll in recording the Labor lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 – and also in doing so from primary votes that you would think more likely to convert to 52-48. Labor are actually up two points from an unusually weak result last time, from 35% to 37%, while the Coalition are up a single point to 39%. The explanation for Labor’s two-party decline must lie in the two-point drop for the Greens, from 11% to 9%, and the attendant weakening in their flow of preferences. One Nation are up a point to 6%; no response option has been added for the United Australia Party, and there is nothing to suggest their ascent in the combined “others” tally, which is down a point to 9%.
If preference flows from 2016 are applied to these crudely rounded numbers, Labor starts with its 37% primary vote and gets 7.4% from the Greens (82% of their total), 3.0% from One Nation (50%) and 4.4% from others (49%), plus a 0.1% boost to correct for preference leakage between the Liberals and the Nationals. Add all that together and Labor comes out on 51.9%. Since this is, to the best of my knowledge, more-or-less the formula Essential uses, the explanation must lie in rounding. Dial Labor back to 36.6% and the Greens to 8.6%, and boost the Coalition to 39.4%, and you get primary votes that round to the published totals, but which produce a Labor two-party result of 51.4%, rounding to 51-49. There can’t have been much in it though.
The poll also features Essential’s occasional measure of leadership ratings, but all we are given at this stage is preferred prime minister. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-31, down from 44-31 when the question was last asked in early March. So here too the poll reflects Newspoll in finding leadership ratings headed the opposite way from the two-party headline.
We will have to wait until later today for the full report, but The Guardian report relates that 59% expect Labor to win compared with 41% for the Coalition (so presumably a forced response); that “voters have logged news stories about the Liberal party’s preference deal with the controversial businessman Clive Palmer’s United Australia party, and are noticing the debates about tax and healthcare”; that the top rated issues were health, national security and the economy; and that 19% reported taking no interest in the campaign, 29% a little, 33% some, and 20% a lot.
UPDATE: Full report here. The preferred prime minister is the only leadership ratings result – nothing on leaders’ approval and disapproval.
Further poll news:
• Roy Morgan, which either publishes or doesn’t publish its weekly face-to-face poll in irregular fashion, has released its results for a second successive week. Polling conducted over the weekend had Labor’s two-party preferred lead steady at 51-49, according to both respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures. Both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39.5% and Labor to 36%, while the Greens are steady on 9.5% and One Nation (which doesn’t do well in this series at the best of times) down two to 2.5%. Also not doing well in this series is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, steady on 2%. The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from sample size unknown, but probably around 700.
• The Advertiser has a YouGov Galaxy poll of Sturt, the Adelaide seat being vacated by Christopher Pyne, which had the Liberals leading 53-47, compared with their post-redistribution margin of 5.4%. The primary votes were 42% for the new Liberal candidate, James Stevens (44.7% post-redistribution); 35% for Labor candidate Cressida O’Hanlon (23.1%); a striking 9% for the United Australia Party (triple what Palmer United managed in Sturt in 2013); and 6% for the Greens. The poll also gives Scott Morrison a 45-31 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; finds 40% less likely to vote Liberal because of Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement by Scott Morrison, compared with 25% for more likely; and finds only 22% more likely to vote Labor because of its franking credits and capital gains tax policies, compared with “almost half” for less likely. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 504.
• The Age yesterday related that Labor internal polling had it leading 55-45 in Dunkley, 54-46 in Lyons, and by an unspecified margin in Gilmore.
• The weirdest poll story of the campaign so far turns out to be the revelation that a supposed ReachTEL poll of the Curtin electorate, provided by independent candidate Louise Stewart to The West Australian and run as a front page story on Saturday, was fabricated. The Liberals reacted to ReachTEL’s denial that any such poll had been conducted by calling on Stewart to withdraw from her campaign, but Stewart says she believes she is the victim of a trick by her opponents. However, a follow-up report in The West Australian relates that Stewart told the paper she had “committed two polls from ReachTEL/Ucomms before election day”, and is now refusing the provide the email she received either to the paper or to ReachTEL. ReachTEL principal James Stewart said Louise Stewart had told him the email had been “deleted somehow”, but Louise Stewart says this is “not true”. Alex Turnbull, the son of the former Prime Minister, who has loomed large in independent candidates’ efforts to unseat sitting Liberals (though not, so far, in Stewart’s), said he believed he had been impersonated as part of the ruse. Stewart tells Andrew Burrell of The Australian that Turnbull’s investigations linked the distribution of the fake poll to a source “close to a senior conservative WA Liberal MP’s office in Perth”.
whatever the motivations they have clearly done a service to Australia. If they were slightly more competent they would have been extremely dangerous.
Ven
Yep. That should not be forgotten
guytaur says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 8:23 am
Good Morning
I see Briefly continues with his delusions about the Greens.
If Labor lose – gotta be at least a 50/50 proposition – the Gs will have played their part. They will rejoice.
briefly
says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 9:14 am
guytaur says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 8:23 am
Good Morning
I see Briefly continues with his delusions about the Greens.
If Labor lose – gotta be at least a 50/50 proposition – the Gs will have played their part. They will rejoice.
__________________________________
If the ALP lose it’s their own fault. Considering they are getting every Green preference in every marginal seat. Man up and stop the sooky sooky la la. You big sook.
Zoudlord@8:08am
“The only poll…….”
Wrong. Since pre-poll started from yesterday and 110000 voted on first day of voting, the current polls matter.
I still do not understand why pills nartowed when PPM matrix has improved for Shorten. Bizarre to put it mildly. Since, Shorten has done well in yesterday’s debate, hopefully things will turn around.
It seems the newspapers and their polling agencies are trying to keep the contest interesting. There’s no harm to labor in people thinking the result will be tighter than the primary votes suggest it will be.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 8:44 am
What Labor should be saying is why are the fiberals okay with Palmer.
He owes taxes and his workers 80 million, and spending 50,000 million on ad campaign. He also says he is worth 4 billion, so why does he want representation in our parliament. Who is he going to serve, considering so far it is obvious it is not the country or its people.
Vic, very many – a large majority – of voters think ‘all politicians are corrupt’/‘all politicians are in it for themselves’/‘none of them can be trusted’/‘they are all the same’.
Labor can cast light on Palmer’s weaknesses. It will not move many votes, but it will confirm what voters already think – that politicians cannot be trusted.
Our order is in trouble. It’s not helped by the endless sniping from the pop-voices.
Andrew Wilkie
http://andrewwilkie.org/labor-ends-up-preferencing-clive-palmer-in-clark-oh-the-hypocrisy/
Big A Adrian@8:28am
I hope you are rigjt
Victoria says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 9:05 am
I have to say my initial feel was that Cormann was looking past Chloe Shorten. She may have felt self conscious but I didn’t sense Cormann did anything wrong. Even Chloe Shorten has confirmed that.
A lesson for everyone not to jump to conclusions
———————–
What didn’t help Cormann was when chloe shorten turn to look at him, you could see his eyes scan to chloe then he looked away quickly
No sulking here….pre-poll, door-knocking, no-stone-unturned.
Nonetheless the point remains. The Gs will be delighted if the Lib-Libs win.
Well this sucks! Hopefully the narrowing defuses some of the underdog effect
wow the ALP are desperate to get rid of Wilkie. Fortunately for him he’s safe with Green preferences.
Anyone got any theories why pre-polling has gone from 70,000 on the first day to 100,000? A recent poll also suggested a lot more people (70%) had made up their minds this time compared with 2016) . People are obviously getting more familiar with pre-polling. But I like to think there is also a kick-them-out syndrome. Why would anyone rush to vote for a tired clapped out govt?
Scott @ #109 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 9:25 am
It was clear that he was staring at Chloe Shorten. The others looking to their left were looking at an entirely different angle.
The clincher was the look on CS’s face and her uncomfortable looking body language. Plus Cormann’s expression as he eventually looked away.
Can’t believe that some people can’t see this.
briefly
says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 9:26 am
No sulking here….pre-poll, door-knocking, no-stone-unturned.
Nonetheless the point remains. The Gs will be delighted if the Lib-Libs win.
______________________________________
No they won’t. They just won’t be excited if the ALP gets up. What would excite the Greens is a close contest and the Greens gaining seats to get the BoP. Now that is exciting!
Going to a strip club is pretty mild on the Moral Decay scale, as is getting drunk (especially when out on the town).
Strip clubs are more of a way of life in America than they are here. In some areas there’s one on almost every corner. I’ve been to a couple back in the day, when in America. Attending a strip club does not mean you automatically have sex with a stripper, or are preparing to betray your relationship. It doesn’t mean you slip hundreds of dollars into g-strings either. I was pretty miserly in that regard myself. All it means, for most, is a night out with the boys, getting a little pissed, spending a little money, ogling pretty girls in a permissive atmosphere. A bawdy night out. It means very little in the grand scheme of things.
Of course everything can be done to excess, and not just getting your jollies perving scantily clad young women. Playing the pokies, excessive exercise, over or under eating or any other kind of obsessive behaviour can cause damage to self and others. But there’s no evidence of this in the footage of Dickson’s behaviour.
Dickson’s mistake was to trust his newfound “friend”, about whom very little is known except that he posed as an NRA gun nut in a long term sting operation.
I can feel a little sympathy for Dickson, but it seems he has an understanding wife who has handled his obnoxious behaviour maturely, not like a first year Arts undergraduate, still wet behind the ears, full of high dudgeon, political correctness and moral certainty, looking for something to condemn, but always in others, never themselves.
ausdavo @ #80 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 8:38 am
Surely Greens preferencing Labor will be even higher than during the last election. The pollsters may be at least 0.5 % out.
Victoria
Some may vote for Labor instead.
It depends on what is powering their protest vote.
Always chaos and division works against the right.
Labor’s stability may just make a difference.
Its very easy to give into the its just bad news for Labor narrative
Has anybody heard anything from Jennifer Yang in Chisholm? She has certainly hit upon the James Diaz candidate this election and she seems to be doing the right thing by letting Gladys do all the hard work for her…
Bushfire Bill
says:
It doesn’t mean you slip hundreds of dollars into g-strings either. I was pretty miserly in that regard myself.
_________________________
Why doesn’t that surprise me? Miserable bastard. 🙂
Re Steve Dickson’s explanation about his drunken behaviour revealed on tv, there is a Latin saying which sums it all up.
” In Vino veritas”.
nath @ #112 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 9:28 am
Disingenuous. Especially Wilkie’s commentary. The Labor guy on Q&A did well last night at explaining the difference between House and Senate preferences and why it’s only the latter ones that matter.
Big A Adrian@8:28
I would add, this is a copy of the Daniel “Say what you do, and do what you say.” Andrews playbook that has worked very well in Vic.
Big A – Shorten is also setting the party up for a double dissolution election. If the Senate does not put through his tax package he will be going back to the people tout suite, no ifs or buts.
adrian says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 9:29 am
It was clear that he was staring at Chloe Shorten. The others looking to their left were looking at an entirely different angle.
The clincher was the look on CS’s face and her uncomfortable looking body language. Plus Cormann’s expression as he eventually looked away.
Can’t believe that some people can’t see this.
———————————————-
I believe he was watching her all the time , that’s the point i was making Cormann excuse can not be he was looking elsewhere , if he was , he wouldn’t have notice Chloe
a r
says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 9:32 am
nath @ #112 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 9:28 am
wow the ALP are desperate to get rid of Wilkie.
Disingenuous. Especially Wilkie’s commentary. The Labor guy on Q&A did well last night at explaining the difference between House and Senate preferences and why it’s the latter ones that matter.
_______________________
I agree it doesn’t matter. But that’s because Wilkie has such a strong primary base and green prefs. But the question remains, why do it?
Chloe Shorten has said there was nothing untoward and she had a nice conversation with Cormannn.
Chloe Shorten strikes me as someone who is quite self conscious.
Electorate of Goldstein
https://www.theage.com.au/national/cbd-melbourne-labor-preferenced-supporter-of-notorious-anti-semitic-conspiracy-theorist-20190429-p51id1.html
“Why would anyone rush to vote”
Means I only have to queue for my sausage on the big day, not to vote as well.
On Ch7 this morning Mark Latham said that Al Jazeera spent 3 years tying to stitch up One Nation.
In fact ON were just a small part (and very late to the party) of an investigation into the NRA.
Ch7 interviewer didn’t correct him. Probably had no idea how it all fitted together.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 9:30 am
Victoria
Always chaos and division works against the right.
This is entirely mistaken. Entirely. Totally. The Right create chaos and division because it works for them.
This election will be decided by the huge number of politically-averse/politics-hostile voters who despise politicians, parties and the system in general. The Lib-Libs and their fellow-travellers do whatever they can to foment this hostility. It’s working. The election will be decided by voters expressing their enmities. Make no mistake.
If Labor win it really will a triumph of hope over resentment. I’m not an optimist about that this morning.
Caught up with the debate this morning after attending an excellent community forum at the Cricketer’s Arms last night about energizing Darling Street and making it a more vibrant space for the community. Great to see Albo there, and of course local mayor Darcy Byrne.
Having watched the debate, I’d have to say I think it’s the first time I’ve ever actually seen the leader of a major political party run out of things to say within 20 minutes. What an indictment on the lack of vision and policy the LNP brings to this election. They deserve to lose on that basis alone.
A double dissolution would be unwise given itd like shorten their next term and time in government. I’d say Labor aren’t going to die in a ditch over tax legislation but look at this election.
Me too – trying to be mischievous.
Yes I like what AlJazeera has done – but where I come from saying someone has done a job on someone is not an admirable thing to do – whether verb or noun – and then you are always pointing out all the un-admirable things that Shorten does so …. but whatever.
These sayings have always confused me. Like saying someone is a piece of work and I thought it was a good thing but turns out it’s not.
Briefly
It only works for them when they are doing it to Labor and allies. Like when they divide workers.
Thus United We will Never Be Defeated from Unions.
Chaos and Division on their side does not work for them.
What Labor/Shorten should harping on , the libs/nats agenda is always set bythe news ltd/corp hacks before the libs/nats themselves
e.g
retiree tax , death tax , carbon tax , etc
ltep @ #133 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 9:41 am
I don’t think they’ll have much choice. This is the big ticket item. They will have to keep the faith with the electorate.
ar@9:32am
If ALP prwferences Palmer above Wilkie then it is wrong because Wilkie will have highest PV in his electorate and it matters who ALP preferences. Let us be clear ALP can not and will not Wilkie seat but they can harm him by not preferencing him above Palmer.
In other seats where Ingies have a chance over LNP, ALP should prwference Indies over Palmer. So your assumption is wrong.
In regards Palmer, has anyone revisited why he fell out with the LNP, having been a very significant Party donor?
And now back being the LNP “bestie”
So have the issues which led to his conversion from donor to critic been resolved, in Palmer’s favour?
That video of Corman was a crock. I don’t understand why people want to make something out of nothing. It was deliberately cut at a point to create a wrong impression. Sad when things get to that stage.
what also has been ignored in the debate was Shorten again announcing an federal integrity commission ,which is making the pro coalition media hacks and newsltd/corp hacks sweating come 18th may 2019
briefly @ #131 Tuesday, April 30th, 2019 – 9:39 am
Please cheer up Briefly. I understand the fatigue of hope and effort and the frustration of trying to maintain something that cost you a lot in the face of organised sniping from those who palpably have another, more selfish, agenda – but the people, like yourself, who make up the ALP, collectively and individually, have worked unstintingly for the greater good, and will be able to pursue this goal in government within a month. The closest historical parallel is 1972 – but this time with a competent cabinet.
Davidwh says:
Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 9:49 am
That video of Corman was a crock. I don’t understand why people want to make something out of nothing. It was deliberately cut at a point to create a wrong impression. Sad when things get to that stage.
—————————————–
If it was Labor or any other non coalition member , the media would be calling for an explanation on what was that person looking at, since it was Cormann the media won’t touch it
If the coming election goes well for Labor in the Senate, and the one after that goes okay as well, the numbers should be reasonably workable after July 2022. If, however, Shorten is crazy enough to call a DD, we will be right back where we started.
The election after next will be for half the Senate in the second half of 2021 (about seven or eight months ‘early’). Bet your house on it.
Am I correct in interpreting Fifield’s response to criticism of prefs with Palmer the Hutt that:
“It’s ok to get into bed with scum, because voters don’t follow HTVs anyway”
?
Seems a pretty massive cop-out.
Sorry Nath that last comment was for you.
And about the Wilkie preferences; “I agree it doesn’t matter. But that’s because Wilkie has such a strong primary base and green prefs. But the question remains, why do it?”
Surely it’s just a manifestation of ordinary human personality clashes? Like, somebody who has enough clout to force the issue has a hate for Wilkie for something he did in the past and has ‘negotiated’ this outcome?
Expat
Yes. A party directing preferences counts. In above the Line voting.
What is becoming even more clear is that the election, as many have said, is one where you either want the chance of a better Oz, or the status quo
It has always been a tough decision as the Oz electorate tends to the conservative (wanting change but not wanting to pay for it) and thus, come line ball, they tend to stick with what they know. This is the current challenge for Labor right through to May Day.
Meanwhile, the West has tried to make the best of their failed attempt to “Get Bill” though, to be fair, they have been more honest than the ABC – to start with. However, sour-grape, Mooner Murray, had the “debate” down to a a thumping win for Morrison. Clearly he has to keep Stokes happy or his weekly Liberal/Anti-Labor rant goes out the door.
Shorten should declined the ABC debate as long as Leigh Sales is going to be the moderator
Labor/Shorten should point out conflict of interest between the Liberal party and Sales , pointing out that Sales was mention in a nsw ICAC hearing , meeting with Tony Abbott
ABC needs to get a non partisan host or no debate