Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

More dissonance between two-party preferred and other poll movements, this time from Essential Research.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has followed Newspoll in recording the Labor lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 – and also in doing so from primary votes that you would think more likely to convert to 52-48. Labor are actually up two points from an unusually weak result last time, from 35% to 37%, while the Coalition are up a single point to 39%. The explanation for Labor’s two-party decline must lie in the two-point drop for the Greens, from 11% to 9%, and the attendant weakening in their flow of preferences. One Nation are up a point to 6%; no response option has been added for the United Australia Party, and there is nothing to suggest their ascent in the combined “others” tally, which is down a point to 9%.

If preference flows from 2016 are applied to these crudely rounded numbers, Labor starts with its 37% primary vote and gets 7.4% from the Greens (82% of their total), 3.0% from One Nation (50%) and 4.4% from others (49%), plus a 0.1% boost to correct for preference leakage between the Liberals and the Nationals. Add all that together and Labor comes out on 51.9%. Since this is, to the best of my knowledge, more-or-less the formula Essential uses, the explanation must lie in rounding. Dial Labor back to 36.6% and the Greens to 8.6%, and boost the Coalition to 39.4%, and you get primary votes that round to the published totals, but which produce a Labor two-party result of 51.4%, rounding to 51-49. There can’t have been much in it though.

The poll also features Essential’s occasional measure of leadership ratings, but all we are given at this stage is preferred prime minister. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-31, down from 44-31 when the question was last asked in early March. So here too the poll reflects Newspoll in finding leadership ratings headed the opposite way from the two-party headline.

We will have to wait until later today for the full report, but The Guardian report relates that 59% expect Labor to win compared with 41% for the Coalition (so presumably a forced response); that “voters have logged news stories about the Liberal party’s preference deal with the controversial businessman Clive Palmer’s United Australia party, and are noticing the debates about tax and healthcare”; that the top rated issues were health, national security and the economy; and that 19% reported taking no interest in the campaign, 29% a little, 33% some, and 20% a lot.

UPDATE: Full report here. The preferred prime minister is the only leadership ratings result – nothing on leaders’ approval and disapproval.

Further poll news:

Roy Morgan, which either publishes or doesn’t publish its weekly face-to-face poll in irregular fashion, has released its results for a second successive week. Polling conducted over the weekend had Labor’s two-party preferred lead steady at 51-49, according to both respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures. Both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39.5% and Labor to 36%, while the Greens are steady on 9.5% and One Nation (which doesn’t do well in this series at the best of times) down two to 2.5%. Also not doing well in this series is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, steady on 2%. The poll was conducted face-to-face on Saturday and Sunday from sample size unknown, but probably around 700.

• The Advertiser has a YouGov Galaxy poll of Sturt, the Adelaide seat being vacated by Christopher Pyne, which had the Liberals leading 53-47, compared with their post-redistribution margin of 5.4%. The primary votes were 42% for the new Liberal candidate, James Stevens (44.7% post-redistribution); 35% for Labor candidate Cressida O’Hanlon (23.1%); a striking 9% for the United Australia Party (triple what Palmer United managed in Sturt in 2013); and 6% for the Greens. The poll also gives Scott Morrison a 45-31 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; finds 40% less likely to vote Liberal because of Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement by Scott Morrison, compared with 25% for more likely; and finds only 22% more likely to vote Labor because of its franking credits and capital gains tax policies, compared with “almost half” for less likely. The poll was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 504.

The Age yesterday related that Labor internal polling had it leading 55-45 in Dunkley, 54-46 in Lyons, and by an unspecified margin in Gilmore.

• The weirdest poll story of the campaign so far turns out to be the revelation that a supposed ReachTEL poll of the Curtin electorate, provided by independent candidate Louise Stewart to The West Australian and run as a front page story on Saturday, was fabricated. The Liberals reacted to ReachTEL’s denial that any such poll had been conducted by calling on Stewart to withdraw from her campaign, but Stewart says she believes she is the victim of a trick by her opponents. However, a follow-up report in The West Australian relates that Stewart told the paper she had “committed two polls from ReachTEL/Ucomms before election day”, and is now refusing the provide the email she received either to the paper or to ReachTEL. ReachTEL principal James Stewart said Louise Stewart had told him the email had been “deleted somehow”, but Louise Stewart says this is “not true”. Alex Turnbull, the son of the former Prime Minister, who has loomed large in independent candidates’ efforts to unseat sitting Liberals (though not, so far, in Stewart’s), said he believed he had been impersonated as part of the ruse. Stewart tells Andrew Burrell of The Australian that Turnbull’s investigations linked the distribution of the fake poll to a source “close to a senior conservative WA Liberal MP’s office in Perth”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

923 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Steve Dickson ( appropriate surname) has resigned from all positions of One Nation. But still Dickson is still No.2 on One Nation Senate ticket. People like Dickson are absolute scums.
    Now Nationals have preference deal with One Nation, where they preferenced One Nation above ALP and Greens.
    Nationals are Coalition partners of Liberals.
    Morrison, PM of Australia, is the leader of Liberals

  2. In my own version of Bludger Track, I don’t see inconsistencies in the calculated vs reported TPPs since UAP entered the pollsters’ options list

  3. Ven….they’re all Libs at heart. They may wear differently coloured t-shirts, but they are united by one purpose – defeating Labor.

  4. I accept the polls got it wrong for the ALP in Victoria by about 3 percent, BUT more recently they also got it wrong for the LNP in NSW by about 2.5 percent…
    Just saying.

  5. I think the question is whether or not the polls have tightened as much as they’re going to tighten, or whether they will tighten up even more. A lot of voters remain unfocused on politics. They have been avoiding the issues, being essentially politics-averse. Many of these voters are angry past-Libs. And many are also persuadable if they can be reached. The election is a very long way from being decided imo.

  6. The results in both NSW and Victoria reflect the fact that many voters are last-minute impulse-buyers. They cannot be polled prior to Election Day because they have no firm intention. They do not think about politics at all, being very largely disillusioned and withdrawn.

  7. The retirees tax is being advertised as a tax on pensioners. For the uninformed, it seems like labor will be generally taxing pensioners. They need to counter this asap

  8. James Bradley:

    We now know Barnaby Joyce provided accountancy services to the owners of the properties at the centre of the Watergate purchases prior to their sale to EAA.

  9. Zoidlord

    I notice that the Twitter account of Ronni salt who has been instrumental over past few weeks in providing info on Watergate, is gone again.

  10. Morning all. The debate format last night was silly, but it was at least clear that Shorten won. EV cost aside I thought it was one of his best performances in the campaign. Gotcha questions were all ScumMo had. It was as though the roles of LOTO and PM were reversed. In fact, the lack of vision and policy detail from ScumMo highlighted why he has avoided parliament sitting so much this year. He has no answers, just a desire to cling to power.

    The polls should be a concern to Labor. At this point negative ads highlighting the failings of the Coalition, Hanson and UAP are needed.

  11. Barnaby Joyce should not be recontesting his seat.

    Stephen Spencer’s Tweets
    Stephen Spencer Retweeted

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  12. Is one of the reasons the NSW result was out of whack with polls due to Optional Preference voting?

    Still 3 weeks to go. Lots of water to flow under the bridge. ALP has the policies and Coalition has nothing in that regard.

    I expect polls will track back eventually to 53-47.

  13. Good Morning

    I see Briefly continues with his delusions about the Greens.

    In the meantime in the real world steady as she goes.
    On the campaign trail Mr Shorten is beating on the issues as voters pay attention.

    That simple equation. People saying for years Tax us higher deliver services.
    This with a background of scandals hitting the LNP including with preference partners.

    The contrast between the right and the left is stark.
    This is cutting through the Murdoch noise. As you saw from last nights Leaders debate. Even when it’s all set up in the LNP favour Mr Shorten wins the debate.

  14. Socrates

    I’ve seen one or good ads, but what Labor may be counting on is the campaign change the rules which is starting to be shown on TV and online etc

  15. “Rudd gave the the LNP zero ammunition to conduct a scare campaign & the only thing Costello could say in response to Labor’s plans was that Rudd had “copied the government” & that Labor’s plans for tax cuts “could not be believed”.

    THIS is the proper way to run an election-winning campaign.

    The way Shorten & Bowen are doing it, is the WRONG way & will lead to an election loss.”

    I disagree. What Shorten is doing is copping a bit of short term hurt to secure long term gain. By releasing all the detail now, there are no nasty surprises and gotchas when in government. Thats what undid Abbott, and arguably Rudd as well – by promising one thing to get elected, and only to get elected, then sucker punching the electorate later. No one can be shocked when Shorren unveils his legislation, and there will be no ammunition for a “you betrayed us” line of attack. What we will get we already know about. And Shorten can take this short term hit, as he is so far ahead of the game thanks to coalition self destruction.

    Shorten is just setting his party up for a very long and stable term of government.

  16. “So all three polls – news, morgan & essential are 51-49.

    Those who claim conspiracies are leftie bedwetting morons – give yourselves an uppercut.”

    Did ya read that William Bowe? Holden Hillbilly reckons you might be a leftie bed wetting moron to raise an eyebrow at the way our pollsters are allocating preferences on those primaries.

    For mine, I still call shenanigans over the way Ipsos does it’s polling, the arcane relic of Morgan, and the now admitted Newspoll preference distribution fandango.

    I don’t think in the cold light of day that the primary votes from this week’s galaxy, newspoll and Ipsos point to anything other than a 52.5% 2PP for Labor. A narrowing of 1 to at most 2 points at most from a 6-7% gap to a 5% gap.

    There is no way that Labor loses with the combined labor/green vote of 46% (even allowing for greens leakage on preferences) and the coalition’s vote under 40.

  17. Big A Adrian

    I get that. Hence why I have felt all along that Labor will take a hit and just scrap over line to win.

    They have less than three weeks to claw back some support.
    It should not be difficult to show the public that Clive Palmer is a lying piece of work, and the fiberals should not have hitched their wagon to him.

  18. Dealing with the minor parties and their supporters can be tricky. Certainly some are voting for them as a “Boaty McBoatface” option as a disruptor to the process but for others there is a significant amount of personal affection that their supporters attach to them. You risk getting those supporters offside and moving the preference needle against your own party. There is a difference between attacking what they say and attacking them. Contrast these two
    (1)Latham said Di Natale/Hinch/Hanson/Palmer/Turnbull/Ali is wrong on renewable energy.
    (2)Latham said Di Natale/Hinch/Hanson/Palmer/Turnbull/Ali is a tosser.
    The first is unlikely to damage preference flows, the second may shift a 50/50 to 60/40.

    PS
    Who in the Labor party decided to release a huge policy spend on the afternoon before Newspole was inevitably take over the news cycle?

  19. I totally agree, Big A! Bill has always played the long game and from all the intelligent and objective analysis of the polling he and Labor are on track for a comfortable win

  20. Socrates.

    Labor is campaigning on social media very effectively.

    So effectively the LNP is attacking truth tellers on social media platforms like twitter.

    Another example is telling the facts on climate policy a scientific outfit had to emphasise these were facts not partisan opinion.

    As one of the people who does not watch broadcast television except for watching my AFL team I can tell you I have not seen a Palmer advertisement. I have seen more on my platform of choice twitter.

    For Labor it’s a slow burn to win. All that free propaganda its fighting. It seems to be winning despite it.
    That Essential figure of not paying attention is telling. It’s all background noise and all that money spent by Palmer proves advertising while still effective is not what it used to be.

  21. I see on How to vote cards the ALP has Greens 2 in most. The Greens have ALP 2 in most.

    Briefly should get off his high horse about the Greens and concentrate on lambasting the real enemies of all progressives – Liberals, Nationals, and the Palmer/Hanson/Anning axis.

    Every Green who preferences ALP 2 is to be welcomed not ridiculed.

  22. “Zoidlord says:
    Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 7:57 am
    shortensuite:

    The Deputy Prime Minister says Coalition policies are more closely aligned with One Nation.”

    So, given the similarities, ON can merge with the Nats … and then Hanson could conceivably be deputy PM.

    Frightening idea

  23. What Labor should be saying is why are the fiberals okay with Palmer.
    He owes taxes and his workers 80 million, and spending 50,000 million on ad campaign. He also says he is worth 4 billion, so why does he want representation in our parliament. Who is he going to serve, considering so far it is obvious it is not the country or its people.

  24. If anyone is looking for a great Australian history book to read may I suggest Paper emperors: the rise of Australian newspaper empires by Sally Young, UNSW Press 2018.

    Covers 1800s to 1941.

    Sally is working on volume 2 which will cover 1931 to now.

    Many of the issues discussed in the book are as relevant today as before and clout and influence proprietors and editors had over government

  25. @nath

    One Nation’s vote will collapse by the time of the election, however Palmer’s United Australia Party will just pick up many of those votes. So we could have Clive Palmer becoming a Senator.

  26. One of the examples of the propaganda effect Labor is fighting comes courtesy of the Adani Convoy.

    Climate Change should be featuring heavily. The LNP is supposed to be winning with its pro coal agenda. Yet someone deliberately mowing down a non violent protester has not been a scandal for a week.

    Contrast that with the attention given to unions.
    So I am like Andrew Earlwood convinced the Labor Green Primary vote means a Labor win.

    What we are seeing is polling companies struggling to adjust with a fragmenting right voting tradition breaking down that won’t have preferences like they have been in previous elections.

  27. Putting conspiracy hat on. One nations loss is Clive Palmer gain.
    Remember Steve Dickson was Qld Liberal then LNP member before joining one nation. Clive Palmer may have known of him during his own LNP days. Hmmmm…..lol!

  28. And another thing, the Clive deal with fibs was only done other day. Pre polling started already.
    How much time have they had to print how to vote cards. Another hmmm…….

  29. @samanthamaiden
    ·
    1h
    Scott Morrison smirked and Bill Shorten heckled during the first leaders debate that confirmed both men appear to genuinely dislike each other.

    Plus: pervegate. The social media meltdown over an MP “perving” at Chloe Shorten that never happened.

    Federal election 2019: Leaders face off in first debate
    Scott Morrison smirked and Bill Shorten heckled during the first leader’s debate that confirmed both men appear to genuinely dislike each other.
    thenewdaily.com.au

  30. Victoria

    One Nation will be lucky if they return Roberts.

    What Labor wants is for Labor people to vote for Larissa Waters backing paying workers fairly in that Qld Senate contest instead of Palmer as Labor voters preferences lesser evil.

    Who knows some Liberal voters might even agree.

  31. Nath “You got to hand it to Al Jazeera for the job they have done on One Nation.”

    You think it was a job? Who paid them? Shorten maybe?

  32. I have to say my initial feel was that Cormann was looking past Chloe Shorten. She may have felt self conscious but I didn’t sense Cormann did anything wrong. Even Chloe Shorten has confirmed that.
    A lesson for everyone not to jump to conclusions

  33. tripitaka

    Lol why would it be Labor. The one who is benefitting from one nation implosion is Clive Palmer and he apparently is worth 4 billion dollars.

  34. tripitaka
    says:
    Tuesday, April 30, 2019 at 9:04 am
    Nath “You got to hand it to Al Jazeera for the job they have done on One Nation.”
    You think it was a job? Who paid them? Shorten maybe?
    _________________________________
    I mean ‘job’ as in verb rather than noun.

  35. Um. I think you might find Al Jazeera is well funded by its owner, the Qatari Government. Who just maybe could feel a little miffed by a stridently anti-Muslim political party.

  36. briefly@8:00am
    Dickson( appropriately named) was a Liberal party member in his previous incarnation as QLD LNP MP and minister in Campbell Newman government.

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