YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The early campaign poll drought ends with a poll suggesting only modest support for Clive Palmer, who would appear to have drawn votes equally from both sides and made no difference to two-party preferred.

The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).

It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.

Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.

New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:

Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.

Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.

Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.

Senate developments:

• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.

• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.

• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Insiders say the one having a ‘good time’ is ScoMo.

    Cheryl Kernot @cheryl_kernot
    9m9 minutes ago

    Very easy “to have a good time” campaigning when you close down any difficult question without challenge & schedule endless manipulated pics for gullible media to serve up. Seriously easy, actually. #insiders

  2. Grimace: put me down for 88 seats.

    88 is a lucky number – hopefully it will be lucky for the ALP as well (and me).

    Cheers

  5. Senator Murray Watt
    ‏@MurrayWatt
    1h1 hour ago

    Unlike Peter Dutton, I hope my family never need to assure people that I’m not *really* a monster.

  6. “Wow. Where were you during the Qld campaign. LNP headquarter’s?”

    Did you do a PhD entitled “On Being Feckless: a Short Autobiography”?

    All Qld Labor did during the Queensland election regarding Adani was align itself more closely with federal labor’s position.

  7. End Of The LNP World
    @toninicho
    7m7 minutes ago

    “Is that you’re (sic) Grandma?” Scott Morrison asks child during photo op. It was her mother. #Insiders
    Imagine certain media if this had been Bill #auspol

  9. What will be interesting is the early vote turnout.
    It was massive in the last Victorian election. The old days of the last week of the campaign being critical are well and truly over.
    And so called campaign launches at week out are just another day of politics, no different to day one.

  10. Public Health Association of Australia – Australian Greens have a smart health prevention plan

    https://www.phaa.net.au/documents/item/3397

    The Public Health Association of Australia has today welcomed the Australian Greens health policy which commits to abolishing the private health insurance subsidy and place “prevention at the heart of health”.

    The PHAA remains concerned that there is too little focus by major political parties on preventing the enormous and anticipated wave of chronic disease that is hitting communities.

    “It makes social and economic sense to keep people well throughout their lives rather than only treat illness when Australians get sick,” said Public Health Association of Australia, Officer, Terry Slevin.

    “The Greens recognise we must, as a nation, address the alarming rates of obesity, diabetes and heart disease; chronic illnesses that will cost us a lot in the long term.”
    :::
    “Currently less than 2% of health spending is for public and preventive health,” Mr Slevin said.

    “All we are after is a commitment of investing one in every 20 dollars being invested in preventing the misery and cost of disease like cancer and heart disease.”

    “It seems every major health policy entity in this country can see the logic in and need for prevention. Yet public policy and resource investment is failing to meet that challenge.”

    World class universal health: https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2019-04/Greens%202019%20Policy%20Platform%20-%20World%20Class%20Universal%20Health.pdf

  13. AE

    You can try and spin it. However I know what happened. It was what worried Labor most about losing the campaign. Having to distance itself from Adani.

    They won despite Adani not because of Adani. That’s the political reality.

  15. Federal election early voting revolution starts tomorrow but both parties still reluctant to reveal all:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-28/early-voting-revolution-pre-poll/11046984

    Professor Rodney Smith from the University of Sydney said the trend meant parties needed to win voters over earlier.

    But, he notes, there’s also a flipside.

    “If people have already voted, they can’t take their vote back,” Professor Smith said.

    “If you release a policy that’s unpopular later, that’s going to affect fewer voters.”

  16. Tristo

    ‘Although the cross-bench could be a sizable one come in the election. If there is, then they will likely form the seeds of a New Liberal Party. I believe we could be witnessing the beginnings of a split in the Liberal Party.’

    That seems the best way forward for them – Lib moderates & crossbench form new party, leave the remnants for Abbott, Andrews, Dutton et al (if any of them still exist, of course) to fight over.

  17. Pegasus

    Good analysis for one campaign.

    I give Labor credit. They are doing two campaigns.

    That’s why they got the how we are going to pay for it out first. Its also why voters liked Bowen’s honesty on the Franking Credits . Don’t like it vote LNP.

    The media jumped up and down big time on that. Not voters. Crystal clear to them on what to choose.

  19. zoomster @ #215 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 10:17 am

    Tristo

    ‘Although the cross-bench could be a sizable one come in the election. If there is, then they will likely form the seeds of a New Liberal Party. I believe we could be witnessing the beginnings of a split in the Liberal Party.’

    That seems the best way forward for them – Lib moderates & crossbench form new party, leave the remnants for Abbott, Andrews, Dutton et al (if any of them still exist, of course) to fight over.

    As they say, losers can please themselves.

  21. grimace says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 8:11 am

    Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep
    =========================================

    From previous thread:
    I forecast 82 seats six weeks ago and have not seen anything to change that prediction. I’m hoping for something closer to 90

  22. Some posters here have been claiming that Shorten came from a well-heeled family and was privileged.

    “April was the fifth anniversary of the passing of my mother. She was born in 1935. She came from a very poor family. She was the first in her family to go to university. She had to take the teacher’s scholarship, because there were three others and the family had no money.

    “She always wanted to do law and did as a mature-aged student. In her 50s she topped the Monash University law school while I was there. She was never bitter, but she could have been a high court judge as far as I am concerned, she was a mind of such acuity and cleverness.

    Equality is an economic strategy because it unlocks the potential of all 25 million Australians
    “My father left school at 14 and became a fitter. He didn’t want to be at school. Both my parents were far smarter than the opportunities they had.

    “This is what I think about poverty: why waste the potential of people? You never know what you’ve got going in society unless you give people a chance.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/28/bill-shorten-poverty-wastes-people-it-wastes-opportunity?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  23. I don’t think getting the State Liberals as nodders is going to help Frydenberg help sell the con the LNP was for removing railway level crossings at this presser.

  26. After 6 years 90% of people have made their mind up long ago. These are more likely to be people who vote early.
    For the 10% who haven’t it’s going to take a lot more than a bit of pork-barreling, a debate or a policy launch to convince the one way or the other. They need some compelling reason (e.g Tampa and 9-11 in 2001, GST in 93). This election has no compelling reason to vote for either side.
    In the absence of that reason the undecided are more likely to think back on the past 6 years and in the case of an incumbent you really need to have delivered to keep their vote.
    This government hasn’t delivered anything of note apart from gay marriage.

  28. Lib moderates & crossbench form new party

    This could happen. Unfortunately it’s a difficult path to follow, as opposed to remaining independents. Obviously remaining as independents is a bit of a long-term nothing given they will fade away over time leaving not much in the way of legacy.

    Forming a party opens them up to a series of landmines though, mostly around forming government. Forming government with the Libs just cements them as wishy-washy Libs, and probably results in any new party just being absorbed back into the collective. On the other hand, preventing a Lib government from forming, resulting in Labor getting up in minority or a new election, would probably be political death for them.

    The best chance such a new party might have would be if Labor set themselves up well and have a decade in easy power (as if that’s going to happen!) where this new party doesn’t get confronted by any hard decisions on power-sharing or legislation and can just exist long enough to be counted as part of the furniture and make real inroads supplanting the lunar right remnants of the Liberal party …

    It wouldn’t be easy to make something that lasts.

    But then making any new party that can last is clearly difficult in Australia and getting more so. They need to have a section of the population that will stick by them thick and thin – the Greens being the only ones to have done this in modern times – and the Australian voting public just seem to be getting more and more fickle and less and less keen to engage in politics, seeing it as something to complain about while having “nothing to do with them”. Newsflash, Australia, stop frickin’ complaining about your politicians and get involved – this stuff actually matters.

    We – like much of the rest of the democratic world – seem to be becoming ungovernable.

  29. slack

    Most voters know Marriage Equality was delivered despite the LNP so they probably don’t count that in their favour either.

  31. Greeenies on twitter tried to argue with me – they failed.

    let me point this out to greenies, we voters will push back if they tried to be-church like by pushing other people’s views.

  32. Pegasus @ #214 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 10:17 am

    Federal election early voting revolution starts tomorrow but both parties still reluctant to reveal all:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-28/early-voting-revolution-pre-poll/11046984

    Professor Rodney Smith from the University of Sydney said the trend meant parties needed to win voters over earlier.

    But, he notes, there’s also a flipside.

    “If people have already voted, they can’t take their vote back,” Professor Smith said.

    “If you release a policy that’s unpopular later, that’s going to affect fewer voters.”

    peg,

    If you’re around. Hat tip to you for being the first to ping EGW as a sock puppet for a previously banned poster. I had an inkling it might have been the case when I had a run in with the poster after he started throwing his weight around despite only arriving on the blog. I said at the time that new comers often adopt that tactic when they first arrive on the blog. They either assimilate or leave in a flurry of self righteousness. However, you were definitely the first to state it clearly and that subsequently lead to his exposure and removal. Well done!

  33. “You can try and spin it. However I know what happened. It was what worried Labor most about losing the campaign. Having to distance itself from Adani.

    They won despite Adani not because of Adani. That’s the political reality.”

    Strong, the cognitive dissonance is in you, young Padwan.

    I see what you did there: Reframe your point, post facto. A quick recap on your original point:

    “Queensland Labor turned its back on Adani in the middle of an election campaign.”

    My rebuttal was that qld did not ‘turn its back’ on Adani. Watering down your argument to ‘distancing itself from adani’ is a different kettle of fish altogether. As I pointed out all qld Labor did was realign itself more closely with federal Labor’s position on Adani.

  35. Jackol

    Not Portugal.

    Its only chaotic where there is too much attention paid to the wailing of the deniers of neo liberalism and climate deniers

    See Germany. Our media keeps on trumpeting about the hard right gains. Yet Germany has in recent elections voted centre or left as the majority.

  38. Lynda Lee
    ‏ @Leel06Lee
    53s53 seconds ago

    ‘All hell broke loose’: The strange story behind Joyce, Taylor and #Watergate
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/all-hell-broke-loose-the-strange-story-behind-joyce-taylor-and-watergate-20190426-p51hjm.html

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-28/nra-president-to-step-down-over-financial-allegations/11052172
    “His departure came after NRA chief executive Wayne LaPierre accused Lieutenant Colonel North of trying to oust him by threatening to release “damaging” information about him, according to a letter from Mr LaPierre to NRA board members that was published by the Wall Street Journal on Friday.”

  39. AE

    You lose the point so you play the man not the ball.

    You sure you are not for the LNP?

    Opening up the Galilee basin is Gina Rinehardt’s Dream. Not Labor’s

  42. Katherine Murphy’s series on Bill Shorten hasn’t done him any harm at all. I think he’ll be a great Prime Minister for a considerable length of time.

  43. guytaur says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 10:37 am
    slack

    Most voters know Marriage Equality was delivered despite the LNP so they probably don’t count that in their favour either.

    That was my point.
    It’s not going to compel someones vote this year. It’s a complete non-issue now.
    The LNP don’t have anything they can point to over the last 6 years except duplicity and treachery in their party room. Undecideds have no reason to fear a change and every reason to punish the incumbent.
    I expect a 53%+ TPP for Labour and a landslide type majority.

  44. Media appear to be falling for the same “antics” of sporty, beer-swilling, policy vacuousness in Morrison, that they fell for in Abbott 2013. Politics is theatre to them, despite their complaints about lack of policy

  48. “No wonder Labor are rolling out Albanese and Plibersek more in recent days, one of them will be replacing Shorten as the new leader of the opposition after May 18.”

    No it’s more that Labor has a depth of talent in their front bench that the public wants to listen to. Unlike the Liberals where it was reported today that voters are turned off by Dutton, Abbott, and Joyce which is why Morrison is going solo.

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