YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The early campaign poll drought ends with a poll suggesting only modest support for Clive Palmer, who would appear to have drawn votes equally from both sides and made no difference to two-party preferred.

The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).

It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.

Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.

New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:

Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.

Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.

Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.

Senate developments:

• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.

• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.

• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Another poll with Labor in front.

    Another poll with low a low primary vote for the LNP. Is it just me or is that really reminiscent of the Victorian State polling?

  2. Gooooooood byeeeeeeeeee Goooooooooooooood Byeeeeeeeeeeeee!

    @Steve Davis

    The Leaders are not shit (except ScoMo/Abbott/Turnbull/liberal leaders/national party leaders/one nation leaders/katter leaders/Palmer leader), Part of the reason is because Bias Media has been allowed to run amok.

  3. Shorten has done the hard yards for 6 years so Morrisons attacks on him are futile.The public know exactly who Bill Shorten is.He is the only credible leader in the Federal landscape.

  4. That ABC article linked by Dandy Murray says:
    ” a re-elected Coalition government will crack down on who comes to Australia”, by imposing further restrictions on refugee and humanitarian migrants. We took ~18000 last year.
    Idea is to make Morrison appear a strong leader, controlling our borders.
    He’s not, of course.
    Permanent migration ( where people pay a LOT of money to the Gov’t to come here) is still seven times as many.
    Nor will he touch the 457 migration, which is five times as many.
    Mustn’t upset business.

    He’s a con man. All piss and wind.

  5. “but insists new arrivals will only go to areas where there is strong community support.”

    Going for the redneck NIMBY vote 🙁

  6. Will the woman from Tasmania who mistook Shorten for Morrison be flying over for the debate?

    She has a fine turn of phrase.

  7. And just on that lady, I received an email from the Daily Telegraph (I used to stir up the the chickens on their comment pages before they went subscription only) gleefully announcing that she called Shorten a “prick”.

    They didn’t add that she had meant to say that about Morrison, and hastily corrected herself.

  8. I’d feel better if Labor were further in front with a more warmly received leader (although personally I’m fine with Mr Shorten) but this is still fine.

  9. Using kb method, and treating UAP the same way as PHON, we get;

    LNP: 37 + 0.181*9 + (4+4)*0.505 + 9*0.529 – 0.13 = 47.3

    or treating UAP as OTH;
    LNP: 37 + 0.181*9 + (4)*0.505 + (9+4)*0.529- 0.13 = 47.396

    Not sure what formulae they would be using to get to 48, if they are using one at all… /s

  10. Can anyone remember how ‘popular’ John Howard was when first elected? I wasn’t paying attention to polls in those days.

  11. I have been to two Town Hall meetings and met several Labor Senators and front benchers as well as Shorten. I found him to be an alright bloke one on one and a speaker who knew his party position and could explain it clearly. Rarely have I heard a negative comment about him but apparently the polls find otherwise.

    As I have never met anyone from the L/NP front or back bench, let alone the PM and Treasurer, I can only try to work them out from TV coverage. The latter confuses me by disputing every statistic and figure not put forward by him.

    Scummo predicts the sky will fall in under Labor as he presides over much negative economic data happening under his management. I notice he quickly distances himself from any incident involving his ” team”. Nothing to say about Barnaby, Dutton, Price, Abbott, Andrews, Abetts, Taylor, etc.
    Or watergate, Paladin, Helloworld, and more. On one hand he is a guy who drinks plenty of beer and cheers for a footie team. On the other, he wants to get into bed with PHON and Clive’s UAP. What a collection.
    I hear lots of negative comments about Scummo and Co but apparently the polls find otherwise.

  12. This shapeshifting clock turns time into moving art
    Design studio Animaro built a kinetic clock that changes its shape depending on the time of the day. Instead of displaying minutes and seconds, Solstice takes a more meditative approach to time.

  13. Mr Ed
    The LNP and their supporters in the media depend on obscuration to maintain voter support. Howard miscalculated in 2007 with Work Choices, Hockey with cuts to services, Abbott with his gaffe prone incidents, Turnbull with the NBN fiasco and Morrison with credibility.
    A biased media just couldn’t help the leaders of the Liberals and their misplaced self-righteous attitude.
    Shorten has been stripped and plundered by the media and its puppeteers and now finds himself on the right side of the ledger with three weeks remaining to an election.
    The ALP lead in the polls is about as good as it gets considering the voting public’s nonchalance and disinterest in politics.
    Shorten and Labor just need to avoid the potholes for three weeks. At this stage with the polls as they are, the heavy media artillery is about to start.

  14. With the media going all out on Shorten, if they cross the line, and given what is at stake I’m sure they will. A defamation writ or two against offending journalists and their Editors will bring that sharply to a halt.
    And, if they ignore the writs, as I’m sure they will, injunctive relief by way of stopper writs forcing cease and desist will make life very hard for offending journalists and editors. Ignore those injunctions at your peril.
    If the media want to get dirty, Shorten and Labor shouldn’t hesitate to smack them individually hard.

  15. Poll drought ends – Yay!

    I was wondering how Newscorp would spin these “steady as she goes” Labor-winning numbers?

    wonder no more – The Australian

    Refugee cap vow as Coalition lifts
    Scott Morrison will pledge to tighten the refugee intake as the Coalition enjoys a lift in its polling numbers.

    I suppose comparing this Yougov to the last one, but it must be hard to keep massaging losing poll numbers into positive stories for Morrison!

  16. I don’t think threatening defamation action would be helpful. Nor do I really like politicians in general using defamation proceedings.

  17. ScoMo pulling out the big guns: Howard and Refugee policy. Look out, Bill. He’ll demand the names of all the potential refugees. 😆

    As well as freezing Australia’s annual humanitarian intake, Mr Morrison will on Sunday announce the makeup of the program for the first time.

    Under the policy there will be an overall target of 60 per cent of the offshore component for women, up from 50.8 per cent in 2017-18.

    The Government will also push to increase the number of refugees and humanitarian entrants being settled in regional Australia from a target of 30 per cent to 40 per cent in 2019-20, but insists new arrivals will only go to areas where there is strong community support.

    While appearing alongside Mr Howard, the Prime Minister will also take aim at Labor’s immigration policies, challenging Opposition Leader Bill Shorten to say who he would allow to come to Australia.

    “We’ve been upfront with Australia we’re reducing the cap on our migration intake and capping the numbers of people we let in under our humanitarian program that’s one of the most generous in the world,” Mr Morrison will say.

    “We’re telling people where we’ll be taking migrants from, who they will be, the skills we want them to have and working with regions to settle people in towns that want and need more workers, skills and students.”

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    This contribution from Peter FitzSimons on #watergate is well worth reading. Quite a scoop in fact.
    As the election campaign tightens, the Labor leader carries the weight of huge expectations. But he is determined to run his own race writes Katharine Murphy in s lengthy essay.
    Michelle Grattan says Morrison will seek to bring the debate over immigration and refugees to the centre of the election campaign, with an announcement that a Coalition government would freeze the humanitarian intake.
    Tony Wright explains how up and down the dry irrigation country people are declaring themselves angry enough to turn their backs on the National and Liberal parties that have always held political sway in this slice of the country.
    Labor is set to up the ante on child care support.
    Shane Wright tells us that Scott Morrison faces a narrow path if he is to win the May 18 election, while Bill Shorten has a string of ways he can find himself in the Lodge.
    The Conversation looks at the state of the states, Palmer’s preference deal and watergate woes.
    Michael Koziol tells us how Ewan Jones, a former Coalition MP for the seat devastated by Clive Palmer’s business record, has slammed Morrison’s preference deal with the “vacuous” mining magnate, and says he is shocked and disgusted Australians are considering voting for him.
    And Labor has launched a full-frontal attack on Prime Minister Scott Morrison, claiming a preference deal between the Coalition and Clive Palmer would deliver the most “extreme right-wing” government in Australian history.
    Millions of dollars from a federal government program for capital projects at under-resourced schools have been directed to facilities at “elite” private institutions, prompting claims from the public school teachers’ union about unfair funding levels in the education system. How can this spending possibly be justified?
    Jacqui Maley calls for a political arms race on women’s issues.
    Disillusionment with capitalism is leading to a profound loss of trust – not just in capitalism but in many of our institutions. Fixing it really matters writes Fiona Guthrie.
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons says that the young will not forgive the old for leaving them a depleted natural world and a precarious future.
    “If the boss needs to spy on your emails, do you want to work there?”, asks Claire Kimball.
    Eryk Bagshaw goes to New England where Joyce is still favoured to win.
    Anti-vaxxers are taking populism to a new, deadly level says Gaby Hinsliff.
    A scare campaign falsely claiming Labor plans to introduce school programs teaching students how to have gay sex is being circulated on Chinese social media, in the latest sign of “fake news” infiltrating the federal election.
    Matthew Knott explains Trump and the American ‘impeachment anxiety syndrome’.
    The Guardian says Joe Biden is the Hillary Clinton of 2020 – and it won’t end well this time either.
    Paul Erlich opines that the world is doomed.,12617
    Is the NRA having some internal issues? I hope so!

    A sparse Cartoon Corner

    Simon Letch on women’s electoral choice.

    From Matt Golding.

    For some reason Zanetti is rubbing it in to Shorten over Palmer.

    From the US

  19. So, nothing is working, eh Mr Morrison?
    But of course, you will say: Let’s wait for Newspoll….. No worries, Newspoll is coming, Mr Morrison…. it’s coming.

    A comment about Herbert: Funny things happen on the way to a Federal election in hyper-ultra-marginal seats…. Let’s focus on the main game: Defeat the climate change denialist, ultra-coal-loving, suckers to the big end of town and the multinationals LNP (in Qld) and COALition (elsewhere).

  20. Shorten is lacking charisma like Howard. But to me would be more honest with a kinder heart and bring some dignity back to parliament. Hopefully his reign will exceed Howard’s and he won’t send soldiers off to battle based on a big lie (WOMD) that subsequently made us a terrorist target.

  21. I’m assuming that none of these LNP voters have any relatives suffering hunger or homelessness under Centrelink’s rules, or in for-profit nursing homes; no single mothers forced to attend classes they don’t want. They are all comfortably well off, happy, and never suffer domestic violence?

    Lucky voters. Lucky ScoMo.

  22. ltep says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 3:21 am

    I’d feel better if Labor were further in front with a more warmly received leader (although personally I’m fine with Mr Shorten) but this is still fine.

    On these figures Labor is headed for a landslide and you want more?

  23. “I’d feel better if Labor were further in front with a more warmly received leader “…. Don’t you worry. Confronted with a smashing defeat in the 2PP the Coalition-controlled MSM would have gone against any ALP leader. … Yep, they would portray Albo in a way that also the “left” would vote against him in the preferred PM polls… and so with all the others.
    A single individual can be criticised far more easily than an entire political party and their program, especially when your side of politics is a complete disaster but you control most of the MSM.

  24. lizzie says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 7:20 am
    The proposed road upgrades intend to save drivers two minutes of travel time, but will destroy more than 800 years of indigenous history.

    Lizzie it is the main road from Melbourne to Adelaide, it will be more about the number of deaths on that stretch of road than the 2 minutes. I like red gums too but new ones do have the tendency to grow; and old ones a tendency die no matter what they got used for in the few hundred years they lived.

    It would be far better to insist several hundred get replanted for each removed. Lock up a bit more land under forests which we desperately need

  25. frednk,

    On these figures Labor is headed for a landslide and you want more?

    (add h to start of address)

  26. frednk

    Yes, I am aware of the number of deaths, the use of “2 minutes” was just to draw attention.

    However, I don’t agree that these old trees, which have significance to Aboriginal women, can easily be replaced. It’s not just an affection for old red gums.

  27. McCormack on the ball.

    David Marler @Qldaah

    “You’ve gotta pay workers. Every worker gets paid. What a silly question that is,” says Michael McCormack before realising the question is about Clive Palmer not paying Qld Nickel workers. #ausvotes #qldpol


    * Prime Minister Scott Morrison: is in Sydney at a rally in Homebush in the seat of Reid before heading to Perth.

    * Labor leader Bill Shorten: is in Melbourne at a childcare rally in the seat of Melbourne before heading to Perth.

    * Nationals leader Michael McCormack: is in Cairns (Leichhardt) before heading to George Christensen’s seat of Dawson in Mackay.

  29. You’ve got to wonder whether former Queensland Liberal Party President, Clive Palmer, is kicking into the federal Liberal Party can. I guess we won’t find out until after the election. A long time after.

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