The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).
It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.
Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.
New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:
Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.
Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.
Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.
Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.
Senate developments:
• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.
• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.
• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.
A view of Morrison’s Pub Crawl tactics.
https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/6093333/opinion-no-baseball-bats-but-not-everyone-cheering-for-the-pm-at-the-pub/?cs=13476
Lizzie
Questions from media to Morrison: where are your polices?
Morrison: Watch me shear a sheep, skoll the schooner, kick a football, play lawn bowls, shoot some pool, spread some hay.
Media: Bravo. You’ve just won the first two weeks of the campaign
If that isnt biased Liberal proponganda from the media I dont know what is.
lizzie @ #568 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 3:21 pm
Aha! We finally have a figure for the cost of doing nothing about Climate Change. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, ScuMo!
steve davis
That was roughly a summary of the mood on Insiders this morning.
@ Lizzie
You nailed it! The whole Coalition campaign ( there are Nationals in it,aren’t there?) centres around Scomo. Call that a campaign?
I saw Wyatt had posters on the fence of the Swan Italian Sporting Club, I assume that means they have effectively endorsed him, and I will curse them every time I drive past them forever.
With one notable exception aside, the malcontent Councillor who breached the Local Government Act in a Trump like way every day, Mundaring has had the kind of Council I wished Swan was.
David Lavel is still a councillor, oh wait he seems to your President now, and although I suspected long ago has LNP leanings, a thoroughly intelligent and committed guy. I met Helen Dullard a couple of times and she was very good. Going back a long way now but John Beaton was a fine fellow, not to be sneazed at either. There is no living mayor of Swan I wouldn’t have switched with any of those three given the chance and 2 seconds to decide.
WWP
It is always hard to find ‘evidence’ in politics. No one generally gives up their sources in journalism (many of them don’t even bother any more, they just make rumours up and see how they go!). So, yeah, fair cop about evidence. I don’t think anyone on the red side can claim to have actual ‘evidence’ either. Outside the machinations of the coup, it is all largely guesswork.
Bill’s involvement in two coups is perhaps more clearly understood (and ‘evidenced’) in that he was in cabinet for both Gillard and then Rudd. For such a new MP it is difficult to see how his presence in cabinet could have been so meteoric without deals done with both leaders. This is not to say “Shorten is bad”/”Morrison is good”, just that it appears (again, if we believe some columnists over others… it is ALL opinion) that Bill was more involved and Scott less so.
It doesn’t matter at all to the electorate: they hate it when leaders get changed mid term. We know this from real evidence: polls that ask as much. That, actually, was my point. That this leadership roundabout comes back to bite you and undermines democracy. Sure, we have a Westminster System, so I don’t expect to be able to ‘choose a leader’ but average punters don’t understand this and, more importantly, don’t like it.
Catherine King MP
@CatherineKingMP
Incredibly proud that a Shorten
@AustralianLabor
Government will invest $2.4 billion to establish a Pensioner Dental Plan
It’ll give up to 3 million older Australians $1,000 every two years in free Medicare dental care
Cautiously expanding dental into Medicare. Unlike The Greens, who are like a kid who’s had too much red cordial and is running around wanting everything now or he will throw a tantrum!
PVO tweets, people will be parsing the words, case, dots and how many exclamations
Newspoll tomorrow….WOW!!!
Which could mean 50-50, 54-46 or another 52-48
😛
Shorten never contested, Morrison became PM, and yet Shorten was more involved? Sorry if I remain unconvinced.
I would of thought that Labor would of been better releasing it’s dental package earlier than now…..like mid last week to screw with newspoll…….lol
Although the deal with Clive is a negative in my eyes as well for the Coalition. Everyone knows he screwed his workers and him splashing around the cash is not a good look.
Off and racing now……………………
Peter van Onselen
Verified account
@vanOnselenP
11m11 minutes ago
More
Newspoll tomorrow….WOW!!!
50 replies . 3 retweets 27 likes
Reply 50 Retweet 3 Like 27
sprocket_
I DO wish PvO wouldn’t do that. Puerile.
Scaredy cat?
lizzie @ #611 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 2:17 pm
It’s taking the mickey out of the media. I love it.
sprocket_
Is three !!! the normal count for a PvO ‘WOW’ ? 🙂
Indeed but his regular meaningless ‘wow’ is still his greatest ongoing contribution to Australian politics and its study, by six lengths and Pinocchio’s nose.
Spain’s electoral cycle (since restoration of democracy) has sort of foreshadowed Australia’s for the last 40 years.
1977-1982 – UDC (Right Wing)
1982-1996 – PSOE (Socialists) – Gonzalez PM, including “upset” win in 1993
1996-2004 – PP (Right Wing)
2004-2011 – PSOE – Zapatero PM
2011-2017 – PP – until Rajoy forced from office due to financial scandal, leaving PSOE Sanchez as PM.
I am hopeful that tonight’s election will reaffirm Sanchez as PM, and be a harbinger for Australia.
Yes, I think you’re right Lizzie. It’s quite juvenile of PvO with his constant “wows”. It might have been tongue-in-cheek the first time, but now it is just lame.
That said, it is a bit of an actual ‘wow’ this time as it has been a long-time between drinks for Newspoll polls. Suspiciously so. Must be close to a record absence in living memory for them during a federal campaign. I am sure Mr Bowe or Dr Bonham could confirm given their historical data stores for Newspoll polling date points.
[Indeed but his regular meaningless ‘wow’ is still his greatest ongoing contribution to Australian politics and its study, by six lengths and Pinocchio’s nose.]
Harsh, but true.
I still remember when he called the 2010 election for a Gillard Labor majority at around 7pm eastern time… He was immature then and still seems to be now. A bit of the Peter Pan about him.
The first leaders debate on Ch7Two is on at 7pm AEST tomorrow.
At the same time, ch9 has a promo for this sleazy ‘politician in a strip club’ story
https://mobile.twitter.com/ACurrentAffair9/status/1122376144307625989/video/1
People like Peter van Onselen just make people like me sick in the stomach with worry until the Newspoll figures come out!
Are strip clubs illegal?
sprocket_ @ #623 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 4:27 pm
Aren’t politicians allowed to be real people!?!
FFS everyone just relax. We all know because it’s been a long time between Newspolls that the media is going to fall on this one and beat it up for all it’s worth. Getting antsy about PvO winding up the media is just silly. And not worth the effort.
Strip clubs are legal, but a married politician, say of the godbothering type, might be open to criticism of hypocrisy
[The first leaders debate on Ch7Two is on at 7pm AEST tomorrow.]
Given it is on 7Two rather than Seven’s main channel, it may as well be buried on the unwatched subscription channel “Sky News”.
Hardly a soul will watch it, other than the ABC Insiders crowd – ie. about 600,000 viewers at best in the five capital cities. Unless either leader promises to murder someone, it will go unnoticed and have little effect on the campaign — rightly or wrongly.
C@tmomma says: Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 4:27 pm
People like Peter van Onselen just make people like me sick in the stomach with worry until the Newspoll figures come out!
****************************************************
To me, he is a person who if he said it was raining outside, then I would want to go to the window and check for myself …..
It’s gonna be 50-50. The people want to vote the libs out. But Shorten…….
[Strip clubs are legal, but a married politician, say of the godbothering type, might be open to criticism of hypocrisy]
Lucky no national leader has campaigned at their place of worship this campaign…
C@tmomma @ #625 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 4:27 pm
I think Peter better be careful or the boss will have a piece of him.He’s not towing the company line at all going by the Insiders this morning.
And it renders criticism of Shorten for not having a ‘prime time’ debate moot when TV outlets don’t even schedule the debate on their main channel.
[To me, he is a person who said it was raining outside, then I would want to go to the window and check for myself …..]
For me, I would not even check and leave without an umbrella!
Given its Ch9, and timed to air on the first day of pre-polling, I reckon it’s a Labor Member- and the Liberal Party Dirt Unit has been sitting on it for a while.
Things are gunna get a whole lot dirtier IMHO
https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/1122286181977165826
Has Scott Morrison been trying to burnish his Dinkum Aussie Dad image again!?!
🙃
[Given its Ch9, and timed to air on the first day of pre-polling, I reckon it’s a Labor Member- and the Liberal Party Dirt Unit has been sitting on it for a while.
Things are gunna get a whole lot dirtier IMHO]
True, but it could be linked to an overseas-based MP, who attracted a federal police “enquiry”, which was never really explained. Being overseas-based by and of itself would not ordinarily attract such “attention”, but linked to apparent visits to overseas venues of ill-repute might…
So who knows!
None of the Newspoll respondents will have seen or heard of Labor’s latest policy announcements.
Here something comes!
https://twitter.com/ACurrentAffair9/status/1122376144307625989
Oh – I’m not taking any polling figures (good, bad or indifferent) seriously until at least next weekend.
John Howard didn’t seem to make an impression on the audience either. They still don’t look terribly excited.
[Here something comes!
https://twitter.com/ACurrentAffair9/status/1122376144307625989%5D
GG
The pollie looks to be “of a certain age”. But that’s not narrowing it down to any particular party at this point!
Lincoln @ #267 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 3:28 pm
There is an excellent extension
— PB Comment Plugin
Which is available for Desktop machines using either Firefox — or Chrome. This extension is known as C+ and enables quoting and preview.
Available from —
Should one be using an Android mobile device and Firefox then the extension will also be available for that device (Phone – Tablet).
The bold black line show in some posts denotes a —
HTML blockquote instance.
There has been a lot of information about this lately on the blog.
Other HTML instances are also available
e.g. Bold, Italic and
strikethrough.And may the lord Zeus have mercy on you. 🙄
E & OE
Chris Kenny
Verified account
deleted this tweet
The coalition needs to go forward not backwards
———————————————–
Labor extending the lead?
It seems to me that the American style political rally seems to be much more common in Australia than even a decade ago.
[Chris Kenny
Verified account
deleted this tweet
The coalition needs to go forward not backwards]
Is that a reference to John Howard being wheeled out today? Hard to follow. Who is Chris Kenny?
Greensborough Growler @ #642 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 4:39 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zvhw9BSURGg