YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The early campaign poll drought ends with a poll suggesting only modest support for Clive Palmer, who would appear to have drawn votes equally from both sides and made no difference to two-party preferred.

The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).

It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.

Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.

New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:

Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.

Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.

Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.

Senate developments:

• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.

• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.

• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 22
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  1. Question @ #612 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 4:16 pm

    Lincoln
    says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 4:06 pm
    …
    This is not to say “Shorten is bad”/”Morrison is good”, just that it appears (again, if we believe some columnists over others… it is ALL opinion) that Bill was more involved and Scott less so.
    …

    Shorten never contested, Morrison became PM, and yet Shorten was more involved? Sorry if I remain unconvinced.

    It wouldn’t matter what you said. The Kill Bill meme and its variations don’t allow for anything else other then Shorten is ‘guilty’.

    He’s no messiah, but if he becomes a half competent PM he will be streets ahead of what we’ve had for 6 years.

    Then there are the Labor Policies.

  6. John Howard didn’t seem to make an impression on the audience either. They still don’t look terribly excited.
    ____
    Just expressing pity.

  7. Okay, so I freeze-framed that short teaser from A Current Affair about the pollie in a strip club and it seems as though it’s a thin male, so not George Christensen. The person in question also has a big ring on his right hand, so it’s not Bill Shorten, because he only has a wedding band on his left hand. Also, the shape of the chin of the pollie in question is completely different to that of Bill Shorten. It seems like a young person’s tight chin and neck area but also more pointy than Bill’s. 🙂

  8. The pro coalition media and Libs/nats were defending the rich and attacking the poor for the last 2weeks

    wouldn’t surprise to see the libs/nats combined primary vote lower than labor in this newspoll

  10. [It seems to me that the American style political rally seems to be much more common in Australia than even a decade ago.]

    I blame the West Wing TV series! It has influenced all the younger party hacks, wanna-bes and media hangers on, making them Americanised without even their realising it.

    Who can forget Latika “Libtika” Bourke not realising the Beltway was a Washington DC circular highway until she took a holiday there… Embarrassing!

  11. Scott @ #647 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 4:44 pm

    Chris Kenny
    ‏
    Verified account
    deleted this tweet

    The coalition needs to go forward not backwards

    ———————————————–

    Labor extending the lead?

    FDR – “A conservative is a person with two perfectly good feet – who only uses them to walk backwards”.

    As true today as it was almost a 100 years ago….

  13. Hola Bludgers!
    Camped on the Wallam Creek at Bollon. Running a banker. Major Mitchells catching the afternoon sun as they come in to drink.
    Demonstrated interest in the elections?
    Zilch.

  17. @GG….Wasn’t Craig Thompson done in by inappropriate dealings at a brothel…..?
    I would be surprised if it was a tory….the media are trying to get ScoMo elected not defeated…..lol

  18. The Liberal signs “Lower Taxes” and “Better Services” when mixed together with a bit of fairy dust turn into “Trust Trickle Down”.

  20. [Hola Bludgers!
    Camped on the Wallam Creek at Bollom. Running a banker. Major Mitchells catching the afternoon sun as they come in to drink.
    Demonstrated interest in the elections?
    Zilch.]

    Good lord. I thought you were Eden-Monaro-based.

    Google Maps suggests Bollom is very much in the middle of nowhere!

  21. [Kevin Rudd went to a strip club once.
    But he couldn’t remember because he was drunk (two white wine spritzers, no doubt).
    It made him look human.]

    True. But there was no video of showing his shoving currency on and/or in any of the strippers. The visual imagery of this claimed incident might be a little more confronting.

    Also, some of the younger ones talk about “#metoo” and such these days. I am not sure most knew who or what a hashtag was in 2007.

  22. Darren Laver @ #338 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 4:46 pm

    [Chris Kenny
    ‏
    Verified account
    deleted this tweet

    The coalition needs to go forward not backwards]

    Is that a reference to John Howard being wheeled out today? Hard to follow. Who is Chris Kenny?

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/wont-save-planet-but-we-will-destroy-our-own-economy/news-story/d1cd0c69223ca058af23dcdd91ef292e

    An extract from the above as a teaser. If you have no access to The Australian – then weep at the delights you are missing.

    After this week’s mix-up that saw a couple of pages of The Sydney Morning Herald appear in The Daily Telegraph, I thought there might be a chance to pen a column here and have it turn up in a Nine newspaper to rescue their readers from the delusional take on climate change that has taken hold in the green-left media.

    So, Herald readers, be independent, always, and please reconsider the false equivalence you read a week ago in a column by your esteemed scribe, Peter Hartch­er. He was tackling what is not only one of the most crucial issues for this nation’s economic and environmental future but also a central policy battleground in the federal election campaign.

    Yes, it is climate change. And we are going to ventilate some fundamental facts that might be confronting for Herald loyalists. I wouldn’t question your love for Earth — it is the best planet we have observed so far and the only one of much use to us. It is useful to assume everyone in this debate cares about the planet because self-destruction is not a wise motive to ascribe to your political opponents. But the hard truth is that even if you accept the most alarming claims about the planet being in peril, it is not within the remit of you or your nation to save it. Those Earth Hour dinners, where you drive the Range Rover to the Hunter to eat Coffin Bay oysters by the light of red gum embers, may or may not be carbon-negative but they can’t help the planet.

    I don’t care much for Mr. Kenny’s writings.

    Over. 😵

  23. Unless the MP is one of those pious preachy god botherers who tells everyone else how to behave, then I don’t see the problem of someone, even married, visiting a strip club.

    Just sounds like more junk fodder for a junk TV station in an attempt to solicit viewers.

  24. Just sounds like more junk fodder for a junk TV station in an attempt to solicit viewers.
    ___
    Just sounds like more junk fodder for a junk TV station in an attempt to solicit junk viewers.
    Fixed.

  26. The coalition needs to go forward not backwards

    Kenny been watching the Simpsons?
    .
    .
    “We must move forward, not backward; upward, not forward; and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!”

  27. Confessions @ #644 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 4:42 pm

    John Howard didn’t seem to make an impression on the audience either. They still don’t look terribly excited.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    And I bet he was smoking too,fancy rolling out an ex prime minister who lost his seat and an election as the best you have to offer,I mean really.
    ?quality=90&strip=all

  29. Contrast the bored, falling asleep audience at the Liberal event earlier today with those giving a standing ovation to Penny Wong after she gave a speech earlier.

    :large

  33. Why wasn’t Malcolm this honest as PM when his colleagues were running around blaming renewable energy sources for power blackouts? It looks terribly disingenuous now.

    Malcolm TurnbullVerified account @TurnbullMalcolm
    6h6 hours ago

    A good reminder that the rapid advances in renewable generation is not limited to solar PV – big improvements in wind too. Which is why, with storage, lower emissions & lower energy costs go together.

  34. dave at 4:47 pm

    Yeah, I know. Couldn’t help myself 🙂

    I would have thought the fact that Morrison put his hand up in #Libspill2 makes him more “involved” by definition. Perhaps I need a new dictionary?

  36. Confessions @ #673 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 4:58 pm

    Unless the MP is one of those pious preachy god botherers who tells everyone else how to behave, then I don’t see the problem of someone, even married, visiting a strip club.

    Just sounds like more junk fodder for a junk TV station in an attempt to solicit viewers.

    Related to this?

    ‏
    Verified account

    @samanthamaiden
    Follow Follow @samanthamaiden
    More
    One Nation’s Steve Dickson : “I have drunk. As a young man I visited a strip club”

    What?

    11:38 PM – 25 Mar 2019

  38. “Okay, so I freeze-framed that short teaser from A Current Affair about the pollie in a strip club and it seems as though it’s a thin male,”

    Please doG…let it be Hastie!! 🙂

  39. “Is three !!! the normal count for a PvO ‘WOW’ ? “

    Maybe they’re like flags at an Abbott press conference – they multiply over time.

  40. Dee Madigan
    @deemadigan
    1h1 hour ago

    Was interesting that @TonyAbbottMHR wasn’t at today’s Lib rally. Is there friction between @ScottMorrisonMP and him again? Will a Lib loss mean he challenges for leadership?

  42. “Tom:

    Could be.”

    Wasn’t that James Ashby’s mate who’s highest ambition is to have a drug lord mansion on the gold coast with lots of machine guns??

  43. I blame the West Wing TV series!

    One of my recent joys is juxtaposing the West Wing Weekly, Sorkin love fest, with the 1/2 dollop plus other guy ‘West Wing Thing’ Sorkin is satan podcast.

  45. So who is the MP in the inserting funds for legitimate legal services that wowsers and nutters are still scared of? I more than love to have 100 beers with people who enjoy and pay for various forms of sex work rather than one with a nutter from a church that preaches hate and intolerance.

  46. Relax everyone the married politician in the ACA report isn’t Kevin Rudd making a comeback, it’s One Nation’s Steve Dickson. The footage most likely captured during the AJ investigation.

  47. Is that Ch9 “pollie at a strip club” scheduled for about the same time as the election debate on Ch7? If so, it’s probably a way to keep people watching Ch9.

    I remember when the media hounded a NSW Labor government minister for being seen entering a gay nightclub. Nowadays I thought that all this “morality shaming” garbage was dead and buried. Presumably not for tabloid TV and the Murdoch rags.

  50. poroti says:
    Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 5:16 pm
    Was the pollie at the strip club visiting or working ?

    ———————————————-

    Jewellery Blingshop pole dancing!

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