The Sunday News Corp tabloids have published the first national poll of voting intention in nearly two weeks, and it’s consistent with the last Newspoll result (conducted by the same organisation) in showing Labor with a lead of 52-48. This compares with 53-47 at the last such poll in March. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 9% (down one), United Australia Party 4% (steady, which is interesting) and One Nation 4% (down four, ditto).
It may perhaps be more instructive to compare the changes with last fortnight’s Newspoll result – both major parties are down two, probably making way for the UAP, who were not a response option in Newspoll. Presumably they will be in the Newspoll we can expect tomorrow evening, as they were in its marginal seat polls a week ago. Peter Brent at Inside Story smells a conspiracy, but I imagine the pollster’s position would be that the party merits such consideration because it is contesting all 151 seats.
Respondents were also asked if they were impressed or unimpressed with the campaign performances of six party leaders, all of whom perform poorly. Listed from best result to worst, Scott Morrison is on 38% impressed and 54% not impressed; Bill Shorten, 31% and 60%; Pauline Hanson, 20% and 67%; Richard Di Natale, 13% and 44%: Clive Palmer, 17% and 69%; and Michael McCormack, 8% and 38%. They were also asked if nine specific issues could potentially change their vote, with cost of living well ahead out of a somewhat arbitrary field on 58%. It seems they were also asked which party they trusted on this issues, since the report says there was nothing to separate them on cost of living, which at Holt Street qualifies as a “positive sign for the Prime Minister”. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1012.
New campaign updates for the federal election guide, including a seat poll result:
Curtin (Liberal 20.7%): Independent candidate Louise Stewart has provided The West Australian with results of a ReachTEL poll crediting her with a 23.9% primary vote. Liberal candidate Celia Hammond is on 42.5%, compared with the 65.5% Julie Bishop achieved in 2016, with Labor on 12.6% and the Greens on 11.3%. It is also stated that the polls show preferences dividing evenly between Stewart and Hammond, which seems rather unlikely, since Labor and Greens preferences will assuredly flow overwhelmingly to Stewart. The sample for the poll was 819, but the field work date is unspecified. UPDATE (29/4): The West Australian today brings the remarkable news that ReachTEL denies having conducted any such poll.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%): Katrina Hodgkinson, Nationals candidate and former O’Farrell-Baird government minister, has been endorsed by the outgoing Liberal member, Ann Sudmalis, and her predecessor, Joanna Gash. This amounts to a snub to the endorsed Liberal, Warren Mundine, who is facing a tough fight against Labor’s Fiona Phillips.
Solomon (Labor 6.1%) and Lingiari (Labor 8.2%): The Northern Territory has been commanding considerable attention from the two leaders, with Scott Morrison visiting on Wednesday and Bill Shorten having done so twice, most recently when he attended a dawn service in Darwin on Anzac Day. In the Financial Review, Phillip Coorey reports the seats are “deemed vulnerable principally because the NT Labor government is unpopular”, and in Solomon, “there is a very high rate of voters, mainly military personnel, with negatively geared properties”.
Warringah (Liberal 11.6%): Tony Abbott received an increasingly rare dose of useful publicity after GetUp! pulled an ill-advised online ad that mocked his surf lifesaving activities. The next day, a Daily Telegraph report appeared to relate what Liberal internal polling might say about the matter, but could only back it up by sprinkling fairy dust on a month-old finding that two-thirds of those considering voting independent would have “serious concerns” if such a candidate was “likely to support Labor or the Greens”.
Mayo (Centre Alliance 2.9%): A volunteer for Rebekha Sharkie’s campaign, and a now-suspended member of GetUp!, was charged on Wednesday for stalking Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%): Labor member Cathy O’Toole has signed a pledge being circulated by business groups to support the Adani coal mine, making life difficult for Bill Shorten, who is prepared to offer only that Labor has “no plans” to review environmental approvals. Labor’s candidates for the Coalition-held central Queensland seats of Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia have all signed a similar pledge circulated by the CFMEU, and Shorten has likewise refused to follow suit.
Senate developments:
• The third candidate on Labor’s New South Wales Senate ticket, Mary Ross, was a late withdrawal before the closure of nominations over what was described only as a personal decision, although it probably related to concerns that Section 44 complications might arise from her receipt of government payments as a medical practitioner. Her replacement is Jason Yat-sen Li, an Australian-Chinese lawyer for the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal, and the candidate for Bennelong in 2013.
• New South Wales Liberal Senator and conservative favourite Jim Molan is running a “parallel campaign” to encourage Liberal voters to vote below the line, so he might circumvent a preselection defeat that has reduced him to the unwinnable fourth position on the party’s ticket. Such a feat was achieved in Tasmania in 2016 by Labor’s Lisa Singh, elected from number six ahead of Labor’s fifth candidate, but New South Wales has none of Tasmania’s experience with the candidate-oriented Hare-Clark system, and a great many more voters needing to be corralled.
• Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the Braddon by-election last July, is running for a Tasmanian Senate seat as an independent. An authentically crusty looking professional fisherman who has campaigned on the locally contentious matter of salmon farming, Garland told the Burnie Advocate he had knocked back an offer of $1 million campaign funding if he ran for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Matthew Denholm of The Australian notes Garland’s potential to leech votes from Jacqui Lambie, who is seeking a comeback 18 months after being disqualified on Section 44 grounds.
The large ring on the right hand is a clue… A google image search for one of the names that’s been suggested should be fairly instructive.
DL
For the 120 Bollonians Bollon IS the centre of the universe.
Newspoll and Galaxy will have sampled at the same time, given the timing and that they are owned by newscorp, it might make it a more interesting data point.
If they are out by a notable amount then it will be a bad look.
I will go for 53-47 Newspoll, because thats where galaxy should have rounded too anyway.
I couldn’t find a horse but up go those arms again.
https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/scott-morrison-on-the-rock-star-ride-with-his-daughter-at-the-royal-easter-show/video/9813a6d8ecac055d980fbf5ad22035b3
Greetings All
I bet the newspoll from Murdochville will be 51-49 to labor.
The report does say MP, so that would rule Dickson out.
What do the Libs expect, they walked out on her as she gave a speech. Mind you I’d love to see Banks live on $40 a day.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/28/labor-warns-coalition-deals-with-rightwing-minor-parties-will-cause-chaos
To be fair most people wouldn’t have a clue what the difference between an MP and Senator is… I’ve seen it used interchangeably.
@Tom I doubt ACA are really going to quibble over naming and reference protocols for Federal Parliament. Do you?
A senator is an MP, member of parliament.
Kevin Bonham parsing the tea leaves..
My previous thread re “Newspoll wow” here twitter.com/kevinbonham/st… Since then another case where it was tweeted for a poll with no 2PP change. However this is the first instance with triple !s (there was previously a WOW! for a one point 2PP change)
😆 someone else counting the !s
Ahead of voting for a government I do, if the circumstances so conspire, like to see the “cut of the person” in the flesh, hence attended the packed to the rafters Box Hill Town Hall today
Very impressive
Particularly the reference to Ad Man from Mad Men attempting to frame the election as between himself and the Labor Leader
Where Shorten countered that he led a team and contrasted that team with the alternate government still consisting of Ministers who will not be in the next Parliament – because they have announced their retirements from the Parliament
The impression was that here is a Leader and a team ready to govern
I admit I come with a bias because my education and life instruct that the right wing ideology of austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down in time is seriously flawed – resulting in the economic circumstances of the Nation today confirmed by where GDP is and trending, where the Cash Rate remains, where the 10 Year Bond Yield is at plus trend, where wages growth is and where the collaterals of Retail Sales, Media Company collapses and house prices declining have been the facts over the last 5 years
I am happy to endorse the Labor team to undertake the recovery this Nation urgently requires
And that is before you arrive at Climate where both Wong and Shorten said the only option is to vote Labor
Ad Man from Mad Men wheels out Howard
Which was a failed strategy in Wentworth where they retired Howard and reintroduced Menzies
Menzies who increased personal and Company tax cuts – and increased the pension
When the Liberal Party was a Liberal Party not a Right Wing Conservative Party
How Menzies must be turning in his grave
sprocket_ @ #711 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 5:58 pm
Sounds like somebody using winks as some sort of secret message 😆
While we are waiting for NewsPoll – let’s recall Clive Palmer 2 years ago leaving court clutching a sick bag – attempting a variation on the Alan Bond Defence
Isle of Rocks – it’s all a bit “blink three times if you’re being held hostage”
FMD, watching 9 News and Ullman going hard in the ‘how will you pay?’ and the ‘pre-polling starts tomorrow and labour won’t reveal their costings’ bullshit.
I shouldn’t have watched it
Isle – on this blog we parse the jot and tittle. On the head of a pin.
What time is Newspoll? Assume around 9.30?
Wow!!! = Scrott has hit the front.
Thers’s gonna be a lot media jiz around tomorrow. Wear a raincoat.
I think the LNP’s ABC is doing ‘balance’ with policy announcements.
It had a bit on the Libs then a bit on labor. at 6pm. The focus of the day. Immigrants for the blue team and child care for the red team.
But I wonder about balance, if labor is releasing more policies, ie dental care, then shouldn’t they get more exposure from the national broadcaster? And doesn’t the lack of policy on the lib’s side bear some examination?
Here is Bill today, showering benevolence on the gathered…
Somethings come up at my end, and I won’t be online again until the end of the week. I’m going to post Newspoll and Essential Guesses.
Take care and see you next weekend. 🙂
– – – – – – – – – – – –
PB-Guess:Newspoll 2019-04-28
Median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
Mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
Mean: ALP 52.5 to 47.5 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 53
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 a r *until the election
52 / 48 Al Pal
52 / 48 Andrew_Earlwood
51 / 49 BK
53 / 47 booleanbach
53 / 47 Burgey
52 / 48 chinda63
52 / 48 Confessions
53 / 47 Dan Gulberry *permanent
52 / 48 Dave from Wagga
52 / 48 Davidwh
52 / 48 Deakin 3rd place 2001
51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
54 / 46 EB *permanent
54 / 46 EGW
52 / 48 Fozzie Logic *until May 17
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
53 / 47 Goll *until the election
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
51 / 49 Jordan
57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
52 / 48 lefty e
50 / 50 ltep
52 / 48 Lynchpin
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
53 / 47 martini henry
53 / 47 Matt31
53 / 47 Michael A
51 / 49 MM
51 / 49 Mundo
53 / 47 OH
53 / 47 pica
52 / 48 poroti
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question *until the election
52 / 48 Red13
52 / 48 rhwombat
54 / 46 Sceptic
53 / 47 Scott
51 / 49 SCOUT
52 / 48 Socrates
53 / 47 Sohar
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
51 / 49 Steve777
53 / 47 Terminator
55 / 45 Tom
53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
49 / 51 Wayne
52 / 48 Whisper
53 / 47 Yabba
51 / 49 Zoidlord
Just saw my first two Clive banners. Can’t remember the name of the person thought, but did catch the party name.
Ffs uhhlman on nine news full on attack against labor’s promises. Spending too much etc.
What a disgrace.
And Essential…
Take care all. 🙂
PB-Guess:Essential 2019-04-30
Median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
Mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
Mean: ALP 52.8 to 47.2 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 40
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 a r *until the election
52 / 48 Andrew_Earlwood
54 / 46 booleanbach
52 / 48 chinda63
52 / 48 Confessions
54.7239618 / 45.2760382 Dan Gulberry *permanent
52 / 48 Davidwh
53 / 47 Deakin 3rd place 2001
51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
54 / 46 EB *permanent
53 / 47 Fozzie Logic *until May 17
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
53 / 47 Goll *until the election
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
51 / 49 Jordan
57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
52 / 48 lefty e
51 / 49 ltep
52 / 48 Lynchpin
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
53 / 47 martini henry
52 / 48 Matt31
53 / 47 Michael A
52 / 48 MM
53 / 47 OH
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question *until the election
52 / 48 Red13
52 / 48 rhwombat
53 / 47 Scott
52 / 48 SCOUT
53 / 47 Socrates
53 / 47 Sohar
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
51 / 49 Steve777
52 / 48 Terminator
53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
53 / 47 Yabba
Ullman and Costello-land were made for each other.
sprocket_ @ #715 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:02 pm
If all else fails oxygen mask will fall from the ceiling for the Christopher Skase defense.
Leroy @ #716 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:06 pm
Exactly! 😆
Loathe as I am to cite betting odds, but apparently the independent is now favourite over Susan Ley in Farrer – on a margin of 20%. Something about water allocation and baseball bats.
Pretty funny considering that until now Ley has apparently been spending much of the campaign in Warringah. Guessing that will change now LOL.
The rapid rotation of Pig-Iron Bob suggests the potential to hook him up to a generator to create a renewable energy source that might be acceptable to the Libs.
I’m looking forward to casting my prepoll vote, along with my daughter, tomorrow morning at 8.30. At that time, I expect Labor to take a commanding lead in early voting in the seat of Sturt!
sprocket_ @ #718 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:07 pm
Reading the tea leaves is too ho hum for this crowd
Late Riser, if you are still taking newspoll bids – put me in for 52/48 thanks.
Mundo ……where are you getting your info?…
LR missed my 52/48 bid for both Newspoll and ER…
Mundo is just being a doom-merchant.
Given PvO’s tendency to be a shit-stirrer, I could see anything from a 50-50 to Labor surge. But I think a 3rd/4th (I think) straight 52-48 would elicit it too.
Anyone know where and what time the first debate is tonite ?
Outsider @ #732 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:13 pm
Me and Swmbo are going postal so we can really make sure we get our senate papers right.Too much at stake to get this wrong.
Pvo has wow in capitals re: newspoll.
He’s a stirrer par excellence.
J341983 @ #737 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:17 pm
A better description is concern troll.
L-R
I hope all is ok. Thanks for posting the predictions.
Tomorrow night in Perth i believe eb.
PvO says “WOW!” every single Newspoll. For years now.
Why does anyone take these “WOW!” tweets seriously?
Henry @ #743 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:22 pm
—
Thank you Henry
Late Riser
Newspoll 54/46 ALP
Essential 55/45 ALP
🙂
Bushfire Bill @ #744 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 6:23 pm
Here is the A-Z guide to interpreting PvOs Newspoll tweets… right here!
EB 5pm Perth time I believe.
Earlier today in the Age.
Headline.
Labor splashes $7 billion on dentist bills, childcare subsidies and higher wages.
and now.
Labor is going big on childcare for this election
Bushfire Bill
But there were 3 !s 😆