Election minus three-and-a-half weeks

It’s been a slow start to the federal election campaign so far as polling is concerned, but there are a few dribs and drabs around the place if you look hard enough.

First, I invite you to bask in the eye-wateringly detailed feast of psephological goodness that is my Senate election guide, subject of the post immediately below this one. Second, I understand we may yet see results from an Essential Research poll conducted over the weekend, but apparently not quite yet. Third, we reach an important milestone in the campaign today with the declaration of candidates and ballot papers draws, nominations having closed yesterday.

With all that out of the way, I offer the following assembly of polling snippets and horse race prognostication, in keeping with my performance indicator of having at least one new post up on every day of the campaign, except maybe on Saturdays.

• The unpredictable Roy Morgan has released the results of its weekend face-to-face polling – probably a more fraught exercise than usual over Easter – which finds Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 4.5% and, contrary to its strong showing in the marginal seat Newspolls published yesterday, United Australia Party 2.0%. The published release compares with those of “the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019”, though the last results it actually published covered only the first half of that period. Either way, the result in the earlier poll was 52.5-47.5 to Labor. The sample of this latest poll was a rather modest 707.

• Roy Morgan also appears to be doing separate polling for the Australian Futures Project which I must find out more about, since all I can tell you is that News Corp’s Annika Smedhurst has published results from it on two successive Sundays. I didn’t bother with its findings last week because they related only to issue salience and didn’t show up anything you couldn’t have guessed, and the most recent results have only just come to my attention. These do actually cover voting intention, and record a 52-48 lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Beyond that though, there are no primary votes and nothing on sample size or survey methodology, with other details in the report relating only to the undecided rate. I can’t find the report online, but Smedhurst has posted an image of it on Twitter.

• Polling conducted by the Liberals for Telereach in the the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, and published by local newspaper the Burnie Advocate, finds Scott Morrison with a 44% approval rating and 43% disapproval rating in the electorate, whereas Bill Shorten has 31% approval and 59% disapproval. Though perhaps the past tense would be more appropriate – the poll was conducted on April 3, from a sample of 626. Some may ask why the Liberals would provide data on leadership ratings but not voting intention. I do not know the answer.

• Journalists continue to receive wildly different impressions of the situation in Victoria depending on whom they talk to. The Financial Review yesterday reported Scott Morrison was starting to find favour among “blue-collar and outer-suburban voters”, turning around what was a “horrendous” situation two months ago, with Labor consistently around 7% ahead statewide. They still expect to lose Chisholm and Dunkley, but believe they may hold not just La Trobe but also Corangamite, albeit that skepticism was expressed about the 54-46 result in the Geelong Advertiser’s ReachTEL poll. The obverse of this would seem to be that things remain radically bad for the Liberals nearer the city, to the extent that they are only “narrowly ahead” in Kooyong and Higgins.

• On the ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, Patricia Karvelas said she had spoken to Nationals who believed George Christensen was “gone” in Dawson, while fellow panellist Andrew Probyn said both sides did not know what to expect given the wild card of preferences from One Nation, who did not field a candidate in 2016 and are now expected to poll up to 20%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Election minus three-and-a-half weeks”

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  2. Quoll@8:15am
    “Greens keeping up the pressure on Barny and Taylor”
    Is anybody laughing out loud reading that idiotic statement? I am certainly choking on my breakfast.

  8. Labor not counting on Palmer preferences:

    Deputy Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek is certain Clive Palmer will not preference Labor amid reports the controversial businessman is on the verge of doing a deal with the coalition.

    Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party is polling well in some key marginal contests, making his how-to-vote cards potentially crucial at the May 18 election.

    “I’m very certain that Clive Palmer won’t be preferencing Labor, he’s never voted with us in his life and he’s made that very clear,” Ms Plibersek told ABC News Breakfast on Wednesday.

    The coalition is close to striking a deal with Mr Palmer, which could deliver him a Senate spot and help the coalition’s fortunes in Queensland lower house seats, The Australian reports.

    “Scott Morrison is playing off One Nation against Clive Palmer,” Ms Plibersek said.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6086911/labor-not-counting-on-palmer-preferences/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews

  9. C@tmomma @ #57 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 8:31 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #53 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 8:25 am

    Two old mates accidentally meet at a cafe in Mornington during a contested Election Campaign.

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    Is this the beginning of the split in the Liberal Party?

    With a few Libs candidates running as Modern Libs and many others removing the brand Liberal from their advertising it may be a question of what Liberal Party.

  10. Barnaby Joyce requested updates on $80m sale of water by Eastern Australia Agriculture
    Joyce asked department to ‘report back to me on this and seek final approval before settling the purchase’

    He could follow with …I just want to check that my corrupt mates are being looked after…. Favours to return & all that… ( satire)

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/23/barnaby-joyce-requested-updates-on-80m-sale-of-water-by-eastern-australia-agriculture

  12. Comparisons are problematic.

    Three members of what is inaptly described as “the corrupt, immoral, unethical NSW ALP government from 2007-2011” will be part of a Shorten government.

  13. I’ve been getting inundated with Clive Palmer ads on YouTube and Facebook. This latest one, from a “sponsored” Facebook post, is a doozy.

    United Australia Party will win Government

    The United Australia Party was on track to win Government at the next Federal Election, Federal Leader, Clive Palmer, said today.

    “Australians should not read or believe fake news,’’ Mr Palmer said.

    “Firstly they said the United Australia Party would get no votes, now they say we the king makers.

    “Each time the press tries to marginalise our party because the truth will only empower Australians to take their country back. We have to put Australia first,’’ Mr Palmer said.

    “Our polling shows that as well as the 15% of Australians who over a month from polling day have decided to vote for the United Australia Party, more than 28% of Australians are at this stage undecided.

    “I believe that one thing those 28% of Australians have decided is they are not going to vote Labor, Liberal or Green.

    “Our research shows that the majority of them will vote for the United Australia Party and bring about real change in Australia.

    “The United Australia Party is standing in 151 seats in the House of Representatives and in the Senate in each State.

    “The United Australia Party cares about each and every Australian and wants to give them the opportunity for a better and more prosperous future,’’ Mr Palmer said.

    “At this critical time in our Country’s future we have to protect and defend Australia’s independence and freedom.

    “We can save our Country and our children’s future but only you can do it by voting United Australia Party at the Federal Election.

    “Together we can achieve the extraordinary.

    “God Bless Australia,” Mr Palmer said.

    ENDS

  14. Greensborough Growler @ #59 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 8:33 am

    C@tmomma @ #57 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 8:31 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #53 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 8:25 am

    Two old mates accidentally meet at a cafe in Mornington during a contested Election Campaign.

    <a href="<a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    Is this the beginning of the split in the Liberal Party?

    With a few Libs candidates running as Modern Libs and many others removing the brand Liberal from their advertising it may be a question of what Liberal Party.

    May it then be a case of a Liberal Conservative Party( the LibCons for short 😉 ) and a Modern Liberal Party?

  15. Thank you again BK. This little gem made me smile.

    The number of NSW public school students who do not identify with a religion surged by 13 per cent in the three years to 2018, making non-believers the fastest-growing group, ahead of Islam and Hinduism. This is fuelling a push to scrap scripture lessons.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/fewer-students-identifying-a-religion-fuels-push-to-scrap-scripture-20190422-p51g5j.html

    I was still half asleep when I scanned it and thought, “I’m pretty sure that’s not what causes it.” I’m sure you didn’t mean it that way. 😉

  17. shellbell @ #62 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 8:36 am

    Comparisons are problematic.

    Three members of what is inaptly described as “the corrupt, immoral, unethical NSW ALP government from 2007-2011” will be part of a Shorten government.

    You also have a good point. However, in Ven’s favour, she was making a generalisation and not specifically tarring each and every member of that government with the same brush.

    Sheesh! Lawyers!

  19. The United Australia Party was on track to win Government at the next Federal Election, Federal Leader, Clive Palmer, said today.

    He said that last time about the PUP, iirc, and ended up with one seat in the Lower House. Just.

    Also, how can the ‘king maker’ be also the king?

  20. Labor is only supporting an inquiry into the transactions made in 2017 under Joyce. Labor, like the Coalition, is not supporting a wide -ranging RC into the MDB plan as advocated by the Greens and Centre Alliance.

    Burke’s interview yesterday on ABC RN Drive:

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/shadow-environment-minister-tony-burke-rules-out-murray-darling/11040172

    The Federal Government has ordered a review of all water purchases since 2008, in a bid to head off a gathering political storm over controversial water buybacks.

    In 2017, Water Minister Barnaby Joyce signed off on the $80 million dollar purchase of two water entitlements from a company co-founded by Energy Minister Angus Taylor that was domiciled in the Cayman Islands.

    Labor had threatened to call for a Royal Commission into the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, instead they’ll focus solely on Barnaby Joyce’s handling of the 2017 water buy backs.

  21. Regarding the Liberal Party candidates who are removing their “Liberal” brand from their advertising, if elected which party do we think they will belong to? Either they will still be in the Liberal Party or they will announce their split from the Liberal Party after the election. It’s one or the other. They aren’t embarrassed by the Liberal brand they are being disingenuous. You could go as far as asking are they lying to get elected. I hope they get called out on it. (Even the tag “Modern” is open to this interpretation.)

  23. They aren’t embarrassed by the Liberal brand they are being disingenuous. You could go as far as asking are they lying to get elected.

    I’d say exactly that.

  24. Eddy Jokovich
    ‏@EddyJokovich
    21m21 minutes ago

    John Howard was “treated like a rock-star” in Burwood? No, he wasn’t, I was there. Most people didn’t even know who he was and wondered what was going on. Maybe Channel 7 is referring to Gerry and The Pacemakers or some other has-been rock-star? #reidvotes #auspol

  25. Adam SchiffVerified account @RepAdamSchiff
    5h5 hours ago

    Adam Schiff Retweeted Ken Dilanian

    On Sunday, Kellyanne Conway wouldn’t even acknowledge Russia helped Trump.

    And Rudy Giuliani effectively said it was fine if they did.

    Today, Jared Kushner said the attack was no more than a few Facebook ads.

    There is no patriotism in Trump’s GOP. Only cowardly opportunism.

  26. Ronnie Salt

    In late 2016, did Mr Joyce tell a then very senior government minister from QLD that he (Mr Joyce) wanted to handle the Eastern Aust Agriculture buybacks himself as he was “very familiar with that part of the world & I know the properties in question personally”?

  27. I often wonder what the point of rolling out former PMs is. The possible number of people who’d even see them would be so low it’d hardly be worthwhile.

    Of course Labor don’t have a former PM to roll out at the moment, nor will the Liberals once Howard ceases campaigning.

  28. Whatever you want to make of that Morgan poll…. It’s still ALP ahead.

    When the situation of a party is fully resilient to all sorts of changes in the assumptions, sample size, methods of a diversity of pollsters, you know that the result is already locked in.

    The only meaningful question remaining is what the real 2PP in favour of the ALP going to be…. at this stage, 52-53% looks pretty safe.

  29. Re Israel Folau’s tweet. That’s more or less what I was taught in Catholic School, what was taught from pulpits, Sunday schools and scripture classes in mainstream churches when I was young

    Reminds me of the Rowan Atkinsons comedy sketch –

    Hello, nice to see you all again.
    Now, as the more perceptive of you have probably realised by now, this is Hell, and I am the Devil. Good evening. You can call me Toby, if you like….
    Now, you’re all here for eternity, which I hardly need tell you is a sod of a long time, so you get to know everyone pretty well by the end, but for now I’m going to have to split you up into groups. …
    Murderers, over here. Looters and pillagers – over there please, thieves if you could join them, and bank managers …
    Fornicators, if you could step forward – my God there are a lot of you….
    Atheists! Atheists? Over here please. You must be feeling a right bunch of charlies.
    Okay, and Christians! Christians? Ah yes, I’m sorry, I’m afraid the Jews were right….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91DSNL1BEeY

  36. Yesterday, I asked if anyone could point me to the detail of Labor’s promise to support the establishment of a federal ICAC. All I found was Labor’s petition for people to sign. To date no one has provided the detail re what sort of fed ICAC Labor is promising.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/23/federal-anti-corruption-body-must-have-power-to-make-arrests-and-conduct-searches-judges-say

    A group of high-profile judges have called for a proposed federal anti-corruption body to be given the powers of a royal commission, warning “an ineffective commission is worse than no commission at all”.

  37. Nominations have now closed. Candidates will be formally declared on Wednesday with details progressively published on the website from late afternoon.

  39. Is Credlin helping Libs?

    The Labor Party last week asked authorities to investigate “fake news” on Facebook claiming Mr Shorten will re-introduce inheritance taxes on estates.

    The Liberal Party denied involvement. But the issue has now emerged in authorised advertising approved by party director Andrew Hirst.

    Speaking in Gladstone, Queensland on Tuesday, Mr Shorten raised the issue unprompted to publicly reject the idea.

    “And while we are on the issue of scare campaigns I want to call out the latest bit of rubbish from the government lie machine,” Mr Shorten said.

    “And that is the so-called death tax. There is actually only one leader who has never ruled out a death tax and that is the current Prime Minister.
    …
    Within hours of those comments, the Liberal Party released a new advert linking Mr Shorten’s assertion with Julia Gillard’s 2010 denial that there would be “no carbon tax under a government I lead”.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/04/24/bill-shorten-death-tax/

  41. Like birds of a feather…

    Ofir GendelmanVerified account @ofirgendelman

    PM Netanyahu will present to the government a resolution calling for naming a new community in the Golan Heights after @POTUS Donald Trump, as a token of appreciation for his recognition of Israel’s eternal sovereignty over the Golan.

  42. ***WATERGATE SCOOP***
    We reveal 4 directors of the Cayman Islands company at the heart of the scandal. Plus that an “A.Taylor” was director there until FY13 at the very least.

    Is FY13 from July 13 to June 14?

    The article C@t quoted suggested that Angus Taylor had quit before some time in 2013.

  44. I’ve started looking through the eye-watering detail in WB’s Senate Election Guide.

    First, thank you WB. This is a huge effort and much appreciated. It will be a great reference as this election drags on.

    Second, I have a question to anyone. Are ACT and NT senators always short-term or long-term? The table implies it’s one or the other but doesn’t say.

  45. Good morning Simon Katich
    Last night you asked about preparation of the seed production area. The only scalping that occurred was when the site was minimally levelled. This was followed by two “nukings” with glyphosate.
    It took three years of weeding before the planted native grass has come to hold its own. You should stop by on the main road and have a look at it next time you are driving through. There is a big sign at the fence line.

  49. Apart from being a rubbish paper, the West is also incoherent……….
    Today, its editorial bags Palmer (clearly Stokes sees him more of a danger than apparently his mate at the Oz) Paul Murray bags Shorten for his support in reinstating penalty rates while the “Who is winning?” has Morrison on 6, Shorten on 2 and Tie 4. Of the 6 Morrison has scored, 1 has been for calling the election, another for being ‘Prime-ministerial’ after the bombings in Sri Lank and today, for somehow, remaining “calm”. In the tied competition, Morrison scored with Shorten a point because they both agreed to the Stoke’s sponsored debate coming on the 29th. Oh, and in the scoring, Shorten was said to have “disappeared” for the day, yesterday. Apparently a marginal seat in Queensland for Shorten, is “disappearing”.
    And, to top it off, yet another day passes while the Eastern seaboard goes crackers over Watergate, and here, well, zilch as of yesterday

  50. Late Riser

    William’s report on senate voting suggests that the AEC has more work to do. Perhaps the voting ‘rules’ should have been tried out on a group with poor comprehension first, not just checked by AEC staff.

    Thirty-four per cent, who I can only hope didn’t properly understand the proposition they were responding to, agreed that “you should vote 1 for the party you think is most likely to get elected”. Fifty-seven per cent thought otherwise.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/24/senate-election-guide/

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