Another night before Christmas

Doubts the election is quite as imminent as all that, and a slightly dated poll result showing business as usual pre-budget.

Or maybe seven nights. According to Anthony Galloway of the Herald Sun, “speculation intensified yesterday about whether Mr Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 11, or wait until the end of next week for a May 18 poll”. The latter would suit me better, if he’s reading. Liberal sources say the Prime Minister might be considering holding off “in the hope of a poll bounce after this week’s Budget”, which would be optimistic of him.

Also in the paper today is a rather unusual bit of opinion polling from YouGov Galaxy, which was conducted pre-budget – last Monday to Thursday, to be precise – from a large sample of 2224. The interesting bit is that Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, discouraging the notion that the New South Wales election might have changed anything. However, the larger purpose of the exercise is to burrow down into voters’ perceptions of the party leaders, taken to include Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer as well as the usual suspects. I don’t find this stuff particularly interesting myself, but there’s a lot of detail in the report linked to above, if you can access it.

UPDATE: The poll appeared not to provide the usual forced response follow-up for the initially undecided on voting intention, thus includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know”. The remainder went Labor 34%, Coalition 33%, Greens 9%, One Nation 8%, United Australia Party 3% and Australian Conservatives 2%. Excluding the don’t know component, this becomes Labor 37%, Coalition 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Another night before Christmas”

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  2. poroti
    that was not Zannetis cartoon. that was someones photoshopped version of Zannetis cartoon. you can imagine what the original was.

  3. Anythony Green Twitter:

    A little constitutional quirk, if the government doesn’t make its election date intentions clear this week, one of the states might break ranks and announce that they will issue half-Senate writs on Monday week for an election in 18 May. States issue Senate writs. #auspol

  4. Dee Madigan@deemadigan

    So lucky that Winx owners had a spare 200k to “have a go” when they bought her as a yearling.

  6. Boer war those pejorative labels for Carlton exist only in your imagination. In forty eight years of being a supporter I have never heard any rival supporter call Carlton that… not even Maggie fans.

  7. Antony Greens knows, if you have a go, you’ll get a go..

    A little constitutional quirk, if the government doesn’t make its election date intentions clear this week, one of the states might break ranks and announce that they will issue half-Senate writs on Monday week for an election in 18 May. States issue Senate writs. #auspol

  10. Regarding Wow. I learned today that the word “peruse” once meant “to read carefully” but with heavy satirical use came to mean “skim” as well. It is now an example of a word that means both what it says and its exact opposite. It is a contranym. Will wow follow?

  11. Eggs are being pulled from supermarket shelves for the third time this year amid fears of another potential salmonella contamination.

    Batches of Southern Highlands Organic Eggs dated up to the ninth of May are being urgently recalled.

    The eggs are stocked by Woolworths, IGA and several other independent grocers.

  12. It used to be that politicians would kiss a baby and then leave them alone. Now they are ‘engaging’ with them. The horror, the horror.

  13. Rex Douglas @ #1136 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 4:25 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #1059 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 1:49 pm

    John Setka has nothing to do with coal mining.
    He represents and leads workers in the construction industry.

    He is a senior rep of the CFMMEU, which is pressuring Labor to continue propping up coal.

    So fracking what? Of course they are, it is as obvious as a company seeking profit, it can be good and drive competition, it can be bad and drive anticompetative behaviour. It isn’t super complex but clearly way above your pay grade.

    In the event of a capable Government and not incompetent media it quickly turns to protecting and helping workers through the transition. Which is exactly what is supposed to happen.

    How can the CFMMEU’s backing of the Adani coal mine be anything but bad ?

    Show us a link to anything that says the whole of the CFMMEU, as opposed to just a section of it, backs Adani.
    Until then, pull your head in.

  15. Electric shocker indeed!

    ELECTRIC SHOCKER

    Labor’s EV claim gets Turnbull backing

    Bill Shorten’s ridiculed claim that electric vehicles can be fully charged in eight minutes receives some unexpected endorsement.
    By RICHARD FERGUSON (Oz headline)

  17. The website I use to look up TV programs has been defeated by Daylight Saving changes. nine-com-au.
    It’s a mess. 😆

  18. Just caught up on the kill bill version eleventy rumor from this morning.

    Hard to take it seriously given how much effort they have previously put into it, even royal commissions etc, and that three Liberal PM’s haven’t been able to outlast his 6 years as opposition leader.

    They might think they can damage him, but they also think they can win the election, their judgment has been very impaired for a very long time.

  22. Just caught up on the kill bill version eleventy rumor from this morning.

    If they had something I reckon 30 straight Newspoll losses, or 40, or 50 would have brought it out.

    Nah. This will be dredged up old stuff with a new twist, tuck, turn, parry, dodge, spin, thrust and…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cuihrjLNAo

  25. 53/47? Like sheep to the slaughter. No guts, no glory peeps.

    It will either be 56-44.

    Or 50-50.

    Or somewhere in between.

  28. EGW

    They were 12 hrs out nearly all day, now it’s been ‘adjusted’ so that the programs don’t match the stations. I suspect an apprentice on the weekend.

  30. Federal election: Christian Porter reveals ‘I’m in for the fight of my life’.

    Christian Porter has declared himself the “underdog” in the long-awaited fight for Pearce at next month’s Federal Election, claiming a $1 million-plus war chest is being used in a bid to defeat him.

    The man some Liberals say will be the next Liberal prime minister, after Scott Morrison, yesterday declared that if he lost Pearce, it would most likely be that Bill Shorten had been handed the keys to The Lodge on election night. He claims Labor has him and Pearce on its top 3 national “hit list”.

    Christian Porter says he’s up for the fight this upcoming Federal election.
    Christian Porter says he’s up for the fight this upcoming Federal election.Picture: Jackson Flindell
    With the election due to be called any day, Mr Porter said he was ready for the fight, saying he still had lots to give in an already remarkable 10-year career in both State and Federal politics.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-christian-porter-reveals-im-in-for-the-fight-of-my-life-ng-b881160667z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1554617477116

  32. Not that the image of Abbott offering his posterior for the PM’ship isn’t fantastic, but for accuracy’s sake, didn’t he offer the Indy’s, ‘anything but his arse’. If so then arse is not for sale.

  33. lizzie @ #1178 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 5:36 pm

    EGW

    They were 12 hrs out nearly all day, now it’s been ‘adjusted’ so that the programs don’t match the stations. I suspect an apprentice on the weekend.

    I only noticed stations not matching programs which is why I did not connect with daylight saving ending.
    Nine channels are OK, but after that it misaligns.

  36. Simon² Katich® says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 5:27 pm

    53/47? Like sheep to the slaughter. No guts, no glory peeps.

    It will either be 56-44.

    Or 50-50.

    Or somewhere in between.

    It will be two numbers whose sum is 100. 🙂

  37. Nathan Wind
    ‏

    @Dura_Ace
    2h2 hours ago
    More
    If you’re on FB the responses to this are harrowing.. people relating their experiences of trying to use the NDIS. Another own goal for Morrison. #auspol

  38. “a fair go for those who have a go”

    This is judgemental rubbish. They, these white faced so called Christians, pandering to disaffected white faced so called Christians, are setting themselves up as deciding who are the go-havers. It’s a belief in the allocation of resources only to those who are deemed worthy.

    New start recipients scraped back in only after a public embarrassment, for eg.

    Asylum seekers are having a go I reckon.

    Shift workers are having a go I reckon.

    etcetera

    Government has a responsibility to all citizens, regardless. It is never in a position to know any individuals special circumstances, or their limitations.

  39. Does it amuse any else when members of the party of big business get upset that their opponents are using big amounts of money to try and unseat them!
    How very dare they!

  43. lizzie says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 5:51 pm

    ScoMo’s team must be flat out trying to find a representative for every possible section of society.

    Lucky they don’t have to pay the travel costs.

  45. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    30s30 seconds ago

    #Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-2) ALP 53 (+2) #auspol

  46. Ipsos foreshadowed on the Nine News intro bit “the exclusive poll results that have Labor racing towards an election win” – full story soon.

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