Another night before Christmas

Doubts the election is quite as imminent as all that, and a slightly dated poll result showing business as usual pre-budget.

Or maybe seven nights. According to Anthony Galloway of the Herald Sun, “speculation intensified yesterday about whether Mr Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 11, or wait until the end of next week for a May 18 poll”. The latter would suit me better, if he’s reading. Liberal sources say the Prime Minister might be considering holding off “in the hope of a poll bounce after this week’s Budget”, which would be optimistic of him.

Also in the paper today is a rather unusual bit of opinion polling from YouGov Galaxy, which was conducted pre-budget – last Monday to Thursday, to be precise – from a large sample of 2224. The interesting bit is that Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, discouraging the notion that the New South Wales election might have changed anything. However, the larger purpose of the exercise is to burrow down into voters’ perceptions of the party leaders, taken to include Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer as well as the usual suspects. I don’t find this stuff particularly interesting myself, but there’s a lot of detail in the report linked to above, if you can access it.

UPDATE: The poll appeared not to provide the usual forced response follow-up for the initially undecided on voting intention, thus includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know”. The remainder went Labor 34%, Coalition 33%, Greens 9%, One Nation 8%, United Australia Party 3% and Australian Conservatives 2%. Excluding the don’t know component, this becomes Labor 37%, Coalition 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Another night before Christmas”

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  1. Michael Pascoe @MichaelPascoe01
    3h3 hours ago

    If you see a federal government infrastructure ad, know it’s @ScottMorrisonMP & @MathiasCormann BS with your money. Frydenberg budget merely restores promised real annual infra spending to Hockey’s promise – before Stunt & Cormannator cut it. Feds a fraction of state spend.

  2. “I’d say the reason for the delay in calling the Election is the Libs will try and use the Senate to launch some smear campaign under Parliamentary Privilege.”

    I think they’d be worried to have another week of senate estimates sitting – questions on Christmas Island photo ops and enviro grants announced before the rounds open.

    also some questions to Corman in the senate about recent articles to be with Turnbull’s knifing could be good too.

  3. For most people who buy EVs charging time will be a non issue, but will free them from the inconvenience of ever visiting a service station.

  4. If the Libs are worried about another week of Senate estimates, and yet still want to delay the election call, then i suspect their internal polls are dreadful and they really do feel they need more time to at least manage a better poll outcome if possible.

  5. Lizzie: “PM Scott Morrison says the story of Winx the horse shows that if you have a go, you get a fair go in Australia”

    Wasn’t it Caligula who proposed to appoint his horse a Senator (or perhaps a Consul) in order to demonstrate the contempt with which he regarded the Senate?

    Perhaps that reflects the contempt with which Mr Morrison regards the Commonwealth and its people?

  6. But who is the rabbit beside Pauline?

    Frank. Frank the Bunny. He tells you when the world will end. Down to the precise second.

  7. “If the Libs are worried about another week of Senate estimates, and yet still want to delay the election call, then i suspect their internal polls are dreadful and they really do feel they need more time to at least manage a better poll outcome if possible.”

    maybe they need the extra week to do as many political favours they can and shred truckloads of incriminating documents??

  8. All I’ve seen recently have been more fake tradie ads extolling the virtues of the Coalition’s tax cuts for them.

    Because I guess the Coalition think that tradies don’t have kids who need educating or families who need health care or elderly parents who need aged care.

  9. If EV charging can be done in 8 minutes, and payment can be integrated into the process it would change the parameters for fuel supply “stations”. Right now, by the time I’ve pumped petrol into my car, gone inside to pay, stood in line, paid and left again, I wouldn’t have too much change out of 8 minutes. Perhaps an enterprising business type might introduce window washing, tyre inflating, or other “drive through” services like food to your window. (Without the stink of petrol or diesel a bunch of other activities might be acceptable, enjoyable even.)

    Alternatively, as many have noted, the majority of charging is likely to be done at home so the need for specialist suburban “Recharge Stations” will be low. Maybe we will just end up with a couple of charging stations appearing at my corner store (BWS, 711, greengrocer, restaurant) with the shops or landlord sharing the income.

  10. Libs will approve adani and other coal mines etc – not for electoral advantage – but to reward Gina and other benefactors. Ministers who retire after the election will be rewarded with board position and ‘consultancies’.

  11. I’m getting the feeling that ScoMo is going from one sport to another in the hope the popularity will rub off on him: swimming, various football codes; horse-racing. Let’s put him on skis on a downhill run!

  14. For me be it 8 minutes or 10 minutes as long as the distance is similar I have no problem with electric cars.

    The problem is infrastructure for the charging stations in the suburbs and regional areas.

    Like the original NBN 93% of ORIGINAL NBN was FIBRE

  15. Tristo says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 12:52 pm
    center to center-right but sane candidate
    ———————-

    There is no such creature.

  16. InstaVolt has announced that 72 rapid charge points were installed in March, a new record for the network.

    Once all final checks and power supply connections have been completed in the next few weeks, the total number of units on the rapid-only network will be more than 310 points across the UK.

    Installations have been completed at sites such as petrol stations, Starbucks branches, supermarkets, and retail parks. In March, the new charge points were added from Dorset to Cumbria.

    The dual-header units feature CCS and CHAdeMO connectors, can charge at up to 50 kW, and are accessed with a contactless credit or debit card – with no registration required.

    Tim Payne, CEO of InstaVolt, said: “March has been an incredibly busy time for us, as we continue to build our network and 72 chargers in one month represents a new company record.

    “It quite possibly represents the highest number of rapid chargers install by an operator in a single month, within the UK.”

  17. Rapid chargers are one of two types – AC or DC [Alternating or Direct Current]. Current Rapid AC chargers are rated at 43 kW, while most Rapid DC units are at least 50 kW. Both will charge the majority of EVs to 80% in around 30-60 minutes (depending a battery capacity). Tesla Superchargers are also Rapid DC and charge at around 120 kW. Rapid AC devices use a tethered Type 2 connector, and Rapid DC chargers are fitted with a CCS, CHAdeMO or Tesla Type 2.

  18. John Setka has nothing to do with coal mining.
    He represents and leads workers in the construction industry.

    He is a senior rep of the CFMMEU, which is pressuring Labor to continue propping up coal.

    So fracking what? Of course they are, it is as obvious as a company seeking profit, it can be good and drive competition, it can be bad and drive anticompetative behaviour. It isn’t super complex but clearly way above your pay grade.

    In the event of a capable Government and not incompetent media it quickly turns to protecting and helping workers through the transition. Which is exactly what is supposed to happen.

  20. Labor Candidate for Reid has put up a good list of promotions that LNP have done for electric cars on his twitter account:

    @SamPCrosby

  21. The EV charging info coming forward since Shorten’s speech reinforces the sinking feeling that as a country we have been asleep for 6 years, or maybe blind folded is a better analogy.

  22. The problem is infrastructure for the charging stations in the suburbs and regional areas.

    Won’t the charging stations just be in the carport / driveway / daily parking spot for commuters, shopping centres, etc etc

    It will cost but it isn’t going to be any type of significant problem

  23. The MSM were laughing at Shorten earlier in the week about 8-10 minute EV charging but it shows how ignorant they are::

    ABB Launches 8-minute Charger for Electric Vehicles
    April 24, 2018

    This week at Hannover Messe, ABB launched what it says is the world’s fastest e-vehicle charger.

    The Terra High Power charger can charge up to 350 kilowatts, which translates to about 200 kilometers of range for an EV, in just 8 minutes, according to the company.

    ABB said that its chargers are being installed around the world, and they have recently been selected for use by Electrify America, the biggest electric vehicle infrastructure project to date in the United States.

    The new charger is ideally suited for use at highway rest stops and gas stations.

  24. booleanbach says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 1:21 pm

    If the Libs are worried about another week of Senate estimates, and yet still want to delay the election call, then i suspect their internal polls are dreadful and they really do feel they need more time to at least manage a better poll outcome if possible.

    If that’s the case, then their only option is to hold separate House and Senate elections.

    That would go down well, not!

  25. EV charging stations should be part of all new ‘park & ride’ parking stations.
    While at work the car is topped up ready for the trip home, some shopping and the return trip the following day.

  26. Any substance to the rumour that Morrison is delaying calling the election to give sufficient time to obtain Imperial approval to bestow a Dame-hood on Gina Reinhart?

  28. So it appears that now that the 8 minute charge idea has been proven, the media are trying the ‘How much will the charging stations cost!?!’ angle. They really are a reprehensible bunch.

    Pity Bill Shorten had the answer at his fingertips and basically said back to them, wtte, so what? 🙂

  29. Jack the Insider
    ‏

    @JacktheInsider
    Following Following @JacktheInsider
    More
    After having lived in a converted shithouse for the last seven years, I figure it’d be cruel not to put Julian Assange away in a confined space again.

    9:03 PM – 6 Apr 2019

  30. WWP
    There are over 10000 in the UK now alone.

    Must be quite a few in Norway too, if it is already at or near to 50% of new vehicle sales being EV, like I read somewhere.

  31. Morrison will not call the election till November 2019 so it give time to turn the polls around in there favour and i really think that the LNP will win the November election……

  34. Barney in Saigon says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 1:56 pm
    booleanbach says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 1:21 pm

    If the Libs are worried about another week of Senate estimates, and yet still want to delay the election call, then i suspect their internal polls are dreadful and they really do feel they need more time to at least manage a better poll outcome if possible.
    If that’s the case, then their only option is to hold separate House and Senate elections.

    That would go down well, not!

    ___________________________________

    I think that would be grounds for the cross-benchers Sharkie, Phelps and McGowan to vote no confidence in the government, despite their coalition leanings. They would have gone from not wanting to be seen siding with Labor to not wanting to be seen providing life support for a government that has lost any reason to stay alive.

    But I don’t think that Morrison will try that.

  36. I think that would be grounds for the cross-benchers Sharkie, Phelps and McGowan to vote no confidence in the government, despite their coalition leanings

    If the the abundant corruption and incompetence of this Govt (from the day Morrison took over, if not before) was not enough to have these useless clowns see how bad the Govt is and they didn’t, the only thing that could move them is self interest, perhaps triggered by polls they were losing ground to Labor.

  37. In each electorate each and everyday until the election is called Labor candidates should point out the rising cost of advertising that Morrison is wasting. Those candidates should have examples of what that money could have provided in the electorate in terms of infrastructure and services. A new community bus, repairs or modernisation of the local swimming pool. There will be an endless list of examples.

    What Morrison is doing IMO isn’t so much trying to buy an extra vote. It’s about placing easy money in the pockets of media outlets from Murdoch to Stokes expecting the quid pro quo in return.

  40. First the vast majority of voters would have to have explained to them what a half-senate only election entails and then there would have to be some kind of justification for it provided. Good luck with that!

  43. I suspect Morrison will wait until all labor senators are in town for estimates and then go to Yarralumla at about 10:00 am tomorrow. It is just that sort of Liberal nasty … and more taxpayer $$$$ wasted

  44. I think the Murdoch family are all here in Oz – perhaps Scott is consulting with them as to how to proceed.

  45. The ads have coved tax cuts and last week’s Budget centrepiece of a $100 billion to be spent over 10 years on infrastructure.

    The huge spend will be closely examined during four days of Senate estimates hearings this week.
    State of the Nation 2019: Low wages, high costs and a shaky property market. The future for Australia is uncertain. Tell us what’s important to you >

    Mr Morrison’s decision to delay the official campaign another week means ministers and senior public servants will be interrogated by non-government senators.

    There will be demands for detailed explanations of the costs involved after Treasurer Josh Frydenberg today told the ABC’s Insiders program there would be complete transparency.

    “Money is being spent in accordance with approved processes and that’s all transparent,” said Mr Frydenberg.
    ***
    The Government caught Labor by surprise. The Opposition had not expected another week of senate hearings and had fired its best shots at ministers in two days of hearings last week.

    But the Opposition will at least revisit some of the contentious matters raised last week and hopes to introduce new ones.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/federal-election-bill-shorten-isnt-waiting-for-scott-morrison-will-start-labors-election-campaign/news-story/7d00b955d76912270bfe170033028064

  46. Two weeks ago, Attorney General William Barr issued a letter that characterized, in terms favorable to President Donald Trump, special counsel Robert Mueller’s findings in the Russia investigation. Based on that letter and the ensuing Republican spin, the media reported that the investigation had largely cleared Trump. But what if these initial portrayals of Mueller’s report were misleading? What if Republicans fed the press and the public a pack of lies?

    Until we see the report, we won’t know what’s in it. But we do know what Republicans have said about it, and eventually—unless it’s buried forever—we’ll be able to check these descriptions against the document. Here’s a catalog of what Trump and his surrogates have said since Barr’s letter came out. Some of these claims have been repeated uncritically by TV anchors, headline writers, and reporters. If the claims prove to be false, the media has a clear duty: to acknowledge that the report is more damning than we were told.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/04/republican-claims-mueller-report-no-collusion-no-obstruction.html

  47. Fess

    Hopefully the Mueller report will be made available to Congress shortly even if redacted.

    Meanwhile I heard it reported that Eric Swalwell is putting his hand up for the Presidency. I have had a great vibe about him from the get go.

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