Or maybe seven nights. According to Anthony Galloway of the Herald Sun, “speculation intensified yesterday about whether Mr Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 11, or wait until the end of next week for a May 18 poll”. The latter would suit me better, if he’s reading. Liberal sources say the Prime Minister might be considering holding off “in the hope of a poll bounce after this week’s Budget”, which would be optimistic of him.
Also in the paper today is a rather unusual bit of opinion polling from YouGov Galaxy, which was conducted pre-budget – last Monday to Thursday, to be precise – from a large sample of 2224. The interesting bit is that Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, discouraging the notion that the New South Wales election might have changed anything. However, the larger purpose of the exercise is to burrow down into voters’ perceptions of the party leaders, taken to include Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer as well as the usual suspects. I don’t find this stuff particularly interesting myself, but there’s a lot of detail in the report linked to above, if you can access it.
UPDATE: The poll appeared not to provide the usual forced response follow-up for the initially undecided on voting intention, thus includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know”. The remainder went Labor 34%, Coalition 33%, Greens 9%, One Nation 8%, United Australia Party 3% and Australian Conservatives 2%. Excluding the don’t know component, this becomes Labor 37%, Coalition 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%.
I came across Joshua Tauberer writing about software (apps) but a lot of his points apply to politics and policies too.
https://medium.com/civic-tech-thoughts-from-joshdata/so-you-want-to-reform-democracy-7f3b1ef10597
And kill Bambi’s mum ? 😆
.
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Bill Shorten’s push to increase the number of electric cars of the road could “end the weekend”, Scott Morrison says.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/albanese-defends-labor-leaders-ev-gaffe/news-story/40186b954439bca5e7b081dc44267a93
Interesting article about Pete Buttigieg in the Washington Post :
Are voters ready for a gay presidential candidate?
‘It got real gay real quick’: Pete Buttigieg’s rise electrifies the gay community, but he could face a rocky road
South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg will almost certainly have to navigate anti-gay sentiment as his 2020 campaign continues. And while his rise is electrifying many in the gay community, others wonder whether the focus on his sexuality undermines the idea that such issues shouldn’t matter.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/it-got-real-gay-real-quick-america-deals-with-a-new-kind-of-candidate/2019/04/05/76649c56-5191-11e9-a3f7-78b7525a8d5f_story.html?utm_term=.be9dea74c269
Most punters wont give a shit about the campaign. They have school holidays,Easter and Anzac day to come.That will be be far more important to them than Scotty from the Shire.
WWP
actually I’m completely unaware of any of Setkas failings as a father or husband. Given he’s not running for election I can’t see it as a problem.
Those scandalous LNP grubs are spending $600,000 a day of our money to sell their worthless shitshow of a government
Honestly, key LNP figures should be prosecuted and jailed over the corrupt misuse of public funds as these self-serving parasites are driven from office
83% of punters are not in unions.People are not going to change their votes because of unions.
Can’t help but think of all the welfare needs that could be met, but which Libs say are ‘unaffordable’.
Utter selfishness and arrogance.
As we all know, elections come and go – and voters tend to get it right. They will this time, too.
The core problem for the Liberal Party is identity. Who are we, in practice? The internal battle will be reignited after May 18.
The direction will be set by the new leader. And no one knows who he or she will be. But the issue will be simple: will the remaining troops coalesce? Will they want to be a progressive force, or a Tory party.
The ALP will turn our to be pretty centrist. And as long as they remain disciplined I expect a minimum of two, maybe three, terms.
Them dang horseless carriages mean trouble.
EDIT: sorry no image -see NYT article
NYT article from 1908 – compulsory reading for you-know-who.
https://www.nytimes.com/1973/03/25/archives/the-horseless-carriage-means-troublele.html
Fess/ jenauthor
Eric Swalwell is young, but as you say jen, quite straight forward in his approach. At this point in cycle, I am inclined towards him above everyone else. Another person who is very calm and measured is Adam Schiff, but I dont see him entering the race.
Got to wait and see i guess
Senator Doug Cameron
All the business – heartache from the conservatives – about electric cars – is a waste of their time. The decision, in Europe at least, has already been made by the legislators. Car manufacturers will be obliged to produce electric cars – and will do so. While petrol fuel vehicles will be around for a long time, like steam trains, they will disappear. Where have all the diesel cars gone for instance? In this case the LNP and dinosaurs have something in common.
Vic
I like Kamala Harris. About time the US had a female President. She has the brains, the brawn and the political smarts to succeed
Al Pal
I like Kamala too, but I dont see it happening at this stage.
A R @ #10753 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 1:28 pm
Where’s that jet engine?
Quick update as a reminder of ongoing Newspoll Guessing. I’ll post the full list later, but for now these are the guesses I’ve recorded since this morning.
PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-04-07
NEW GUESSES since: 10:52 AEST today
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
53 / 47 beguiledagain
52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
53 / 47 booleanbach
54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 sustainable future
53 / 47 Victoria
I wonder if any letters to the editor have complained that EVs will mean an awful lot of very long extension leads clogging the roads?
Come to think of it, ON voters might worry about it. {smily emoji}
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/toxic-rainbow-after-campbellfield-factory-fire-fuels-residents-fears-20190407-p51bmz.html
Melbourne’s factory fires
A massive warehouse fire in Campbellfield is the latest in a string of factory blazes in Melbourne.
Chart
Place
2019 April 1 Dandenong South More than 100 firefighters battle to contain a fire at a converted factory that houses the Star Entertainment Complex.
March 7 The director of recycling firm SKM Services is charged in relation to a massive blaze in the northern suburb of Coolaroo that burned for more than a week in July 2017.
Feb 7 Maribyrnong Cars found ablaze in suspicious warehouse fire.
Jan 19 Campbellfield Residents heard explosions coming from a factory used for recycling batteries and other machinery.
2018
Dec 12 Mordialloc Fire tears through food processing factory.
Nov 4 Brooklyn Fire at waste management centre.
Oct 14 Thomastown Fire guts factory.
Oct 12 Kilsyth Man suffers serious burns to his face in an out-of-control fire that destroys factory.
Oct 6 Wantirna South More than 400 mattresses catch alight at the Knox Transfer Station.
Oct 4 Highett Fire at furniture removal business.
Sept 25 Campbellfield Nearby residents told to stay indoors to avoid smoke and “strong odour” from fire at nut processing factory.
Aug 28 West Footscray More than 50 schools and childcare centres close as toxic smoke billows from massive factory fire after illegal chemical dump site was set alight.
Aug 23 South Melbourne Almost 50 firefighters needed to bring blaze under control at multi-storey warehouse.
July 7 Coolaroo Huge fire at SKM Recycling, the same plant that was the scene of a 2017 blaze that blanketed Melbourne in toxic smoke.
June 2 Somerton Fire destroys family-run pasta factory.
April 13 Wantirna South Fire at the Knox Transfer Station is so fierce it starts spot fires in nearby paddocks and sends smoke billowing over EastLink.
Feb 19 Springvale Firefighters stumble upon a giant cannabis crop in a factory fire.
One fire every month for the past year and a half – except for March & May 2018.
Not a good look.
Al Pal says: Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 3:37 pm
Vic
I like Kamala Harris. About time the US had a female President. She has the brains, the brawn and the political smarts to succeed
*****************************************************
Me too Al Pal – I’d love to see her combine with some other person ( Beto, Buttigieg , Schiff, Swalwell etc ) and come up with some great modern policies that would appeal to many of the younger voters too and just get whatever it takes to get Democrat leaning persons out to vote !!! as in US politics that’s what its all about
Tristo says:
Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 12:52 pm
“large amounts of money are being poured into campaigns for Independent center to center-right but sane candidates”
Tristo any comment on where these large amounts of money are coming from? Not in part from a certain MBT by any chance?
I’ve been boring people rigid for months now opining that the Turnbull family will represent the greatest danger to Labor at the 2022 election, most likely through gathering independents together to form a new centre-right party. Admittedly that thought is fuelled by an earnest wish to see fulfilment of Tanya Plibersek’s prediction on the day of MBT’s defenestration, that we were witnessing the end of the modern Liberal Party.
Frank has Donnie walk to the golf course and then tells him that he has 28 days, 6 hours, 42 minutes, and 12 seconds left (28:06:42:12), assuming about 18 minutes to walk to the course, this places the end of the world around 7am.
https://www.roborooter.com/post/501/donnie-darko-and-the-collapse-of-the-tangent-universe/
Phoenix
Precisely. That’s the whole point of generational chance.
LR
Chalk me up for (a somewhat pessimistic) ALP 52/Coal 48 Newspoll
Newspoll 52/48
Essential 53/47
Ipsos 53/47
The libs/nats and pro coalition media , need to convince Labor , greens and other non coalition supporters to vote for the libs/nats , this propaganda attack on electric cars will not do it, all what the propaganda attack is doing is keeping the rusted on coalition supporters , and likely to get the undecided voter not to vote for the libs/nats
Dave from Wagga, J341983
Thank you. I have recorded your guesses.
Re Ipsos, There’s been insufficient interest (maybe 2 guesses in total), so I’m giving them a miss this time.
EDIT: “recorded your” not “your recorded”
Apparently betting markets have Coalition out to 7.20
TheKouk:
The polls to be released tonight must show a compelling Labor lead: Election betting this afternoon has seen further strong money on Labor
Labor $1.15
Coalition $7.20
Bill Shorten ain’t waiting:
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/federal-election-bill-shorten-isnt-waiting-for-scott-morrison-will-start-labors-election-campaign/news-story/7d00b955d76912270bfe170033028064
I’m going for 52/48 Newspoll, and 53/47 for ER
Thanks Zoidlord
From the link:
Wishful thinking?
which betting agency??
@Late Riser
Lala land.
:p
For those of you still inclined to think that betting markets can predict election results – instead of just reflecting the weight of money, I just tried to bet $100.00 at $21.00 odds that Labor would win 100+ seats (I only like laying interesting bets); my bet got declined (probably because I’ve won too much off them over the years) and the odds have just fallen to $16.00.
LOL Toby Esterhase
WeWantPaul @ #1059 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 1:49 pm
How can the CFMMEU’s backing of the Adani coal mine be anything but bad ?
Zoidlord @ #1119 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 4:03 pm
Free money on offer.
Scott @ #1117 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 4:02 pm
Unless there’s a massive scandal re Labor or Shorten, this election is a lock for Labor in the HoR. The voters will PUNISH the Govt, nothing more certain.
Anything to do with the delay?
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/the-coalition-is-at-war-over-adani-coal-mine-on-the-eve-of-the-federal-election/news-story/fe0bb0cfaf36161ed7e5833cfd1600ad
Sportsbet and Ladbrokes odds on the election haven’t moved today.
However I still think that Morrison must have seen some bad internal polling results after last Tuesday’s budget speech and has delayed calling the election as a result.
Lateriser, put me down for
Newspoll 54/46
Essential 53/47
I think Morrison will use this week to push through something in an attempt to wedge Labor, something like approving Adani.
Rex: “Free money on offer.” Yes I used to know a guy who happily backed odds-on favourites at the nags. When I said I thought it was a big risk for not very much return, his standard reply was “Well you only lend it to the bookies for a very short time”. Competely logical, if you ignore the fact that sometimes an odds-on fave loses. But not gonna happen this time. But Toby, 100+ seats? I’m down for 94 – I suspect that’s the max. But whoopee if I’m wrong.
Zanetti’s latest is pretty spot on today 😀
$600K per day in advertising?
How many Nurses would that pay for?
How many Police would that pay for?
How many place in shelters for Domestic Violence Victims or the Homeless would that pay for?
FFS this lot need to get the flick. 🙁
Odds on faves usually win 2 in 5
Greetings Late Riser, my tips;
Newspoll 55/45 ALP
Essential 54/46
Thanks 🙂
It’s all over for Scrott if Mordor Media’s cartoonists have turned against him .So Zanneti’s effort an aberration or the first of many ? Come on down the next Leak cartoon.
Ipsos poll on ch9 news at 6pm tonight
steve davis @ #1107 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 3:20 pm
That makes no sense.
Libs use unions as bogeymen. And with some people it works.
Australians being taken for a ride?
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/when-voters-think-they-re-being-taken-for-a-ride-they-re-dangerous-20190407-p51boh.html