Another night before Christmas

Doubts the election is quite as imminent as all that, and a slightly dated poll result showing business as usual pre-budget.

Or maybe seven nights. According to Anthony Galloway of the Herald Sun, “speculation intensified yesterday about whether Mr Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 11, or wait until the end of next week for a May 18 poll”. The latter would suit me better, if he’s reading. Liberal sources say the Prime Minister might be considering holding off “in the hope of a poll bounce after this week’s Budget”, which would be optimistic of him.

Also in the paper today is a rather unusual bit of opinion polling from YouGov Galaxy, which was conducted pre-budget – last Monday to Thursday, to be precise – from a large sample of 2224. The interesting bit is that Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, discouraging the notion that the New South Wales election might have changed anything. However, the larger purpose of the exercise is to burrow down into voters’ perceptions of the party leaders, taken to include Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer as well as the usual suspects. I don’t find this stuff particularly interesting myself, but there’s a lot of detail in the report linked to above, if you can access it.

UPDATE: The poll appeared not to provide the usual forced response follow-up for the initially undecided on voting intention, thus includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know”. The remainder went Labor 34%, Coalition 33%, Greens 9%, One Nation 8%, United Australia Party 3% and Australian Conservatives 2%. Excluding the don’t know component, this becomes Labor 37%, Coalition 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Another night before Christmas”

  1. I came across Joshua Tauberer writing about software (apps) but a lot of his points apply to politics and policies too.
    https://medium.com/civic-tech-thoughts-from-joshdata/so-you-want-to-reform-democracy-7f3b1ef10597

    …People are rationally ignorant. We want to live our lives. If everyone had to participate in every vote, there would be no time left to live

    …Until you’ve worked 5–10 years in government or advocacy, you can’t see what needs change.

    …Individuals don’t hold power, groups do.

    …Power is zero-sum. If you want one group to have more power, then you want to take power away from someone else. It’s two sides of the same coin. Are the people you want to take power away from going to sit idly by? How are they going to react to your idea? They have to be as much a part of your thought process and plan as the people you want to empower.

    …Don’t try to solve problems you don’t experience yourself without actually engaging with the people who have those problems. Every now and then some rich folks build apps about homelessness— don’t make that mistake, in whatever domain you’re working on.

    …Your idea has no value. It’s all about execution.

  2. Interesting article about Pete Buttigieg in the Washington Post :

    Are voters ready for a gay presidential candidate?

    ‘It got real gay real quick’: Pete Buttigieg’s rise electrifies the gay community, but he could face a rocky road

    South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg will almost certainly have to navigate anti-gay sentiment as his 2020 campaign continues. And while his rise is electrifying many in the gay community, others wonder whether the focus on his sexuality undermines the idea that such issues shouldn’t matter.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/it-got-real-gay-real-quick-america-deals-with-a-new-kind-of-candidate/2019/04/05/76649c56-5191-11e9-a3f7-78b7525a8d5f_story.html?utm_term=.be9dea74c269

  3. Most punters wont give a shit about the campaign. They have school holidays,Easter and Anzac day to come.That will be be far more important to them than Scotty from the Shire.

  4. WWP
    actually I’m completely unaware of any of Setkas failings as a father or husband. Given he’s not running for election I can’t see it as a problem.

  5. Those scandalous LNP grubs are spending $600,000 a day of our money to sell their worthless shitshow of a government

    Honestly, key LNP figures should be prosecuted and jailed over the corrupt misuse of public funds as these self-serving parasites are driven from office

  6. @Bowenchris
    7h7 hours ago

    The Liberals are spending $600,000 a day on tax payer funded ads. Delaying the election a week means more than $4 million of partisan ads funded by the tax payer. Fitting that they end the term with the same arrogant contempt for the taxpayer that has marked their entire term.

    Can’t help but think of all the welfare needs that could be met, but which Libs say are ‘unaffordable’.
    Utter selfishness and arrogance.

  7. As we all know, elections come and go – and voters tend to get it right. They will this time, too.
    The core problem for the Liberal Party is identity. Who are we, in practice? The internal battle will be reignited after May 18.
    The direction will be set by the new leader. And no one knows who he or she will be. But the issue will be simple: will the remaining troops coalesce? Will they want to be a progressive force, or a Tory party.
    The ALP will turn our to be pretty centrist. And as long as they remain disciplined I expect a minimum of two, maybe three, terms.

  8. Fess/ jenauthor

    Eric Swalwell is young, but as you say jen, quite straight forward in his approach. At this point in cycle, I am inclined towards him above everyone else. Another person who is very calm and measured is Adam Schiff, but I dont see him entering the race.
    Got to wait and see i guess

  9. Senator Doug Cameron

    @LiberalAus promised $525 million in the Budget for skills and training which turns out to be just $54.5 million of new money. This, after they’ve cut $3 billion from the vocational education sector.

  10. All the business – heartache from the conservatives – about electric cars – is a waste of their time. The decision, in Europe at least, has already been made by the legislators. Car manufacturers will be obliged to produce electric cars – and will do so. While petrol fuel vehicles will be around for a long time, like steam trains, they will disappear. Where have all the diesel cars gone for instance? In this case the LNP and dinosaurs have something in common.

  11. Vic
    I like Kamala Harris. About time the US had a female President. She has the brains, the brawn and the political smarts to succeed

  12. Quick update as a reminder of ongoing Newspoll Guessing. I’ll post the full list later, but for now these are the guesses I’ve recorded since this morning.

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-04-07
    NEW GUESSES since: 10:52 AEST today
    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
    53 / 47 beguiledagain
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    53 / 47 booleanbach
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    53 / 47 Victoria

  13. I wonder if any letters to the editor have complained that EVs will mean an awful lot of very long extension leads clogging the roads?

    Come to think of it, ON voters might worry about it. {smily emoji}

  14. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/toxic-rainbow-after-campbellfield-factory-fire-fuels-residents-fears-20190407-p51bmz.html

    Melbourne’s factory fires
    A massive warehouse fire in Campbellfield is the latest in a string of factory blazes in Melbourne.
    Chart
    Place
    2019 April 1 Dandenong South More than 100 firefighters battle to contain a fire at a converted factory that houses the Star Entertainment Complex.
    March 7 The director of recycling firm SKM Services is charged in relation to a massive blaze in the northern suburb of Coolaroo that burned for more than a week in July 2017.
    Feb 7 Maribyrnong Cars found ablaze in suspicious warehouse fire.
    Jan 19 Campbellfield Residents heard explosions coming from a factory used for recycling batteries and other machinery.
    2018
    Dec 12 Mordialloc Fire tears through food processing factory.
    Nov 4 Brooklyn Fire at waste management centre.
    Oct 14 Thomastown Fire guts factory.
    Oct 12 Kilsyth Man suffers serious burns to his face in an out-of-control fire that destroys factory.
    Oct 6 Wantirna South More than 400 mattresses catch alight at the Knox Transfer Station.
    Oct 4 Highett Fire at furniture removal business.
    Sept 25 Campbellfield Nearby residents told to stay indoors to avoid smoke and “strong odour” from fire at nut processing factory.
    Aug 28 West Footscray More than 50 schools and childcare centres close as toxic smoke billows from massive factory fire after illegal chemical dump site was set alight.
    Aug 23 South Melbourne Almost 50 firefighters needed to bring blaze under control at multi-storey warehouse.
    July 7 Coolaroo Huge fire at SKM Recycling, the same plant that was the scene of a 2017 blaze that blanketed Melbourne in toxic smoke.
    June 2 Somerton Fire destroys family-run pasta factory.
    April 13 Wantirna South Fire at the Knox Transfer Station is so fierce it starts spot fires in nearby paddocks and sends smoke billowing over EastLink.
    Feb 19 Springvale Firefighters stumble upon a giant cannabis crop in a factory fire.

    One fire every month for the past year and a half – except for March & May 2018.
    Not a good look.

  15. Al Pal says: Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    Vic
    I like Kamala Harris. About time the US had a female President. She has the brains, the brawn and the political smarts to succeed

    *****************************************************

    Me too Al Pal – I’d love to see her combine with some other person ( Beto, Buttigieg , Schiff, Swalwell etc ) and come up with some great modern policies that would appeal to many of the younger voters too and just get whatever it takes to get Democrat leaning persons out to vote !!! as in US politics that’s what its all about

  16. Tristo says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 12:52 pm

    “large amounts of money are being poured into campaigns for Independent center to center-right but sane candidates”

    Tristo any comment on where these large amounts of money are coming from? Not in part from a certain MBT by any chance?

    I’ve been boring people rigid for months now opining that the Turnbull family will represent the greatest danger to Labor at the 2022 election, most likely through gathering independents together to form a new centre-right party. Admittedly that thought is fuelled by an earnest wish to see fulfilment of Tanya Plibersek’s prediction on the day of MBT’s defenestration, that we were witnessing the end of the modern Liberal Party.

  17. The libs/nats and pro coalition media , need to convince Labor , greens and other non coalition supporters to vote for the libs/nats , this propaganda attack on electric cars will not do it, all what the propaganda attack is doing is keeping the rusted on coalition supporters , and likely to get the undecided voter not to vote for the libs/nats

  18. Dave from Wagga, J341983

    Thank you. I have recorded your guesses.

    Re Ipsos, There’s been insufficient interest (maybe 2 guesses in total), so I’m giving them a miss this time.

    EDIT: “recorded your” not “your recorded”

  19. Apparently betting markets have Coalition out to 7.20
    TheKouk:

    The polls to be released tonight must show a compelling Labor lead: Election betting this afternoon has seen further strong money on Labor
    Labor $1.15
    Coalition $7.20

  20. Thanks Zoidlord

    From the link:

    The Government caught Labor by surprise. The Opposition had not expected another week of senate hearings and had fired its best shots at ministers in two days of hearings last week.

    Wishful thinking?

  21. For those of you still inclined to think that betting markets can predict election results – instead of just reflecting the weight of money, I just tried to bet $100.00 at $21.00 odds that Labor would win 100+ seats (I only like laying interesting bets); my bet got declined (probably because I’ve won too much off them over the years) and the odds have just fallen to $16.00.

  22. WeWantPaul @ #1059 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 1:49 pm

    John Setka has nothing to do with coal mining.
    He represents and leads workers in the construction industry.

    He is a senior rep of the CFMMEU, which is pressuring Labor to continue propping up coal.

    So fracking what? Of course they are, it is as obvious as a company seeking profit, it can be good and drive competition, it can be bad and drive anticompetative behaviour. It isn’t super complex but clearly way above your pay grade.

    In the event of a capable Government and not incompetent media it quickly turns to protecting and helping workers through the transition. Which is exactly what is supposed to happen.

    How can the CFMMEU’s backing of the Adani coal mine be anything but bad ?

  23. Scott @ #1117 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 4:02 pm

    The libs/nats and pro coalition media , need to convince Labor , greens and other non coalition supporters to vote for the libs/nats , this propaganda attack on electric cars will not do it, all what the propaganda attack is doing is keeping the rusted on coalition supporters , and likely to get the undecided voter not to vote for the libs/nats

    Unless there’s a massive scandal re Labor or Shorten, this election is a lock for Labor in the HoR. The voters will PUNISH the Govt, nothing more certain.

  24. Sportsbet and Ladbrokes odds on the election haven’t moved today.

    However I still think that Morrison must have seen some bad internal polling results after last Tuesday’s budget speech and has delayed calling the election as a result.

  25. Lateriser, put me down for
    Newspoll 54/46
    Essential 53/47

    I think Morrison will use this week to push through something in an attempt to wedge Labor, something like approving Adani.

  26. Rex: “Free money on offer.” Yes I used to know a guy who happily backed odds-on favourites at the nags. When I said I thought it was a big risk for not very much return, his standard reply was “Well you only lend it to the bookies for a very short time”. Competely logical, if you ignore the fact that sometimes an odds-on fave loses. But not gonna happen this time. But Toby, 100+ seats? I’m down for 94 – I suspect that’s the max. But whoopee if I’m wrong.

  27. $600K per day in advertising?

    How many Nurses would that pay for?
    How many Police would that pay for?
    How many place in shelters for Domestic Violence Victims or the Homeless would that pay for?

    FFS this lot need to get the flick. 🙁

  28. It’s all over for Scrott if Mordor Media’s cartoonists have turned against him .So Zanneti’s effort an aberration or the first of many ? Come on down the next Leak cartoon.

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