Another night before Christmas

Doubts the election is quite as imminent as all that, and a slightly dated poll result showing business as usual pre-budget.

Or maybe seven nights. According to Anthony Galloway of the Herald Sun, “speculation intensified yesterday about whether Mr Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 11, or wait until the end of next week for a May 18 poll”. The latter would suit me better, if he’s reading. Liberal sources say the Prime Minister might be considering holding off “in the hope of a poll bounce after this week’s Budget”, which would be optimistic of him.

Also in the paper today is a rather unusual bit of opinion polling from YouGov Galaxy, which was conducted pre-budget – last Monday to Thursday, to be precise – from a large sample of 2224. The interesting bit is that Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, discouraging the notion that the New South Wales election might have changed anything. However, the larger purpose of the exercise is to burrow down into voters’ perceptions of the party leaders, taken to include Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer as well as the usual suspects. I don’t find this stuff particularly interesting myself, but there’s a lot of detail in the report linked to above, if you can access it.

UPDATE: The poll appeared not to provide the usual forced response follow-up for the initially undecided on voting intention, thus includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know”. The remainder went Labor 34%, Coalition 33%, Greens 9%, One Nation 8%, United Australia Party 3% and Australian Conservatives 2%. Excluding the don’t know component, this becomes Labor 37%, Coalition 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Another night before Christmas”

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  2. Looks like the cancer funding was a master-stroke, frankly, it’s the only thing I remember from last week…

  5. IPSOS 53-47 means its very unlikely newspoll will be 53-47, its usually about 2 or more out, i think my 55-45 is looking good.

  7. Malcolm Turnbull still rues his decision to spend several weeks longer than necessary on the 2016 campaign from which the Coalition emerged only by the merest skin of its teeth.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison is running just such a risk right now.

    He effectively fired the gun on an election campaign last Tuesday with a budget that relies on everything going precisely right, year on year, to meet Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s optimistic prediction of future surpluses.

    The Prime Minister did nothing to hose down fevered speculation that he would go to the Governor-General on Sunday to put voters out of their misery.

    Though he never actually said we could expect a polling date of May 11, or May 18 at the latest, he played cute.
    ***
    Add this coming week for him to get around to naming the election date everyone knows it must be now – May 18 – and he is effectively subjecting Australia and its voters to a campaign of almost seven weeks.

    Menzies, Hawke and Turnbull could attest that when voters think they’re being taken for a ride, they’re dangerous. And Menzies, Hawke and Turnbull all had vastly bigger electoral buffers than Morrison, who starts with a minority government.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/when-voters-think-they-re-being-taken-for-a-ride-they-re-dangerous-20190407-p51boh.html

  8. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago

    #Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Morrison 46 (-2) Shorten 35 (-3) #auspol
    0 replies 6 retweets 4 likes
    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago

    #Ipsos Poll Shorten: Approve 36 (-4) Disapprove 51 (-1) #auspol
    0 replies 1 retweet 1 like

  9. Thought you’d be a little bit pleased that Labor are in a good position to win Rex – or do you really think it makes no difference?

  12. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    7m7 minutes ago

    #Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (-1) ALP 34 (+1) GRN 13 (0) #auspol
    6 replies 21 retweets 16 likes
    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    6m6 minutes ago

    #Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Morrison 46 (-2) Shorten 35 (-3) #auspol
    1 reply 9 retweets 8 likes

  13. Labor’s primary is a woeful 34%, but the Greens vote is too high at 13% so this is not accurate. But the Coalition have no hope at 37%, they need a 4 in front to have any chance.

  14. Kate @ #1198 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 6:06 pm

    Thought you’d be a little bit pleased that Labor are in a good position to win Rex – or do you really think it makes no difference?

    Little difference.

    Let’s hope for a genuinely progressive balance of power in the senate to drag Labor back from the right and away from the SDA and CFMMEU.

  16. I am liking the movement in IPSOS, 2 points to the good for the progressive party with actiual policies, 2 points the other way for the hapless uninspired, riven mess we call a government. If a move of this size is replicated in Newspoll I will finally get one of LRs medals for my crystal ball skills.
    Does this 53-47 make people think a 55 – 45 is the source of today’s WOW?

  17. Zoidlord – yes, looks like Ipsos will usually be earlier in the night than it was before, so it can be included in that night’s Nine News reports. Newspoll definitely on its way.

  19. d-money

    I think the Wow! is used every time, and no longer means anything except “Hi folks, I’ve seen the results.”

  23. LR

    Another bumper fortnight(ish), and almost universal praise for their brib…, I mean budget, the gap narrows once more.

    Newspoll: ALP 60 – LNP 40

    Essential: Unchanged (from my previous permanent pick).

  24. IPSOS have greens high again at 13;
    Galaxy breakdowns had them 8 in SA and VIC, 8 in NSW, 12 in QLD and 9 Aus wide

  26. The budget questions will be the interesting takeout from this poll especially the demographic/ party breakdowns.

  27. “The (Ipsos) survey of 1200 respondents was conducted from April 3 to 6, in the days after last Tuesday’s federal budget…”
    – so 2 days worth missed for the Budget Reply, so probably 54-46 after Budget Reply accounted for

  28. For the umpteenth time, NO STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ACCOUNTS FOR THE MASSIVE YOUTH ENROLMENT FROM THE GAY MARRIAGE PLEBISCITE
    So Greens 13% is possible

  30. Dan Gulberry @ #1222 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 6:15 pm

    LR

    Another bumper fortnight(ish), and almost universal praise for their brib…, I mean budget, the gap narrows once more.

    Newspoll: ALP 60 – LNP 40

    Essential: Unchanged (from my previous permanent pick).

    OK. Recorded.

    In case you’ve forgotten what your Essential guess was…
    ALP / LNP
    54.7239618 / 45.2760382
    😉

  32. Labor 34, just off its 2013 nadir, Green 13? I don’t think so.

    However, Labot + Green = 47 is credible. Tramsfer 3 from Green to Labor and it might make sense.

  33. Crowe’s write up all but admitted IPSOS’s primaries are a steaming pile of shit.

    53-47 is there or there abouts and will be within MOE of the final election result. But ALP 34 and Greens 13 is just silly.

  35. Phil Coorey a bit downbeat as his Liberal Party on the nose..

    “Labor will enter the election campaign as favourite, in front by 53 per cent to 47 per cent, after a budget that provided no bounce for the Coalition, the latest poll by The Australian Financial Review-Ipsos shows.
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison is not expected to call the election until next weekend. He will spend the next few days on the road selling the budget which, the poll found, was well regarded by voters, even if it failed to translate into an immediate lift in the Coalition’s fortunes.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/no-budget-bounce-for-morrison-20190407-p51bnl

  38. Vic,
    I dont disagree greens could do well from a high young turnout, but why would it be make IPSOS different to Newspoll or Galaxy etc, do IPSOS adjust for expected turnout ?
    I seems strange that IPSOS aus wide was higher than the highest statewide result by galaxy…

  39. Kevin Bonham on IPSOS

    The low Labor and high Greens primaries in #Ipsos are simply house effects of that pollster and should be ignored. Ipsos frequently has Labor below 35, no other major pollster has done so since mid-2017.

  41. I’m always interested when people see no difference between the Coalition and Labor. As someone very much at the lower end of the scale financially it matters to me a great deal.

    With a partner about to undergo radiotherapy and with finances stretched to the limit – I am desperate for a Labor win.

    With sickness benefit the same rate as newstart it doesn’t take long for meagre savings to be swallowed by treatment costs.

    Hearing Shorten’s cancer policy had this household in tears.

    It’s funny isn’t it, unless you walk in pinching shoes it doesn’t really sink in how painful life can be.

    Some who post on here glibly say “same same” – and isolate for criticism policies that don’t suit them perfectly. I guess I should be pleased for them that their shoes fit so perfectly.

  42. Vic I kept waiting for the unpolled youth vote to roll up at the NSW election but there was not a blip of anything that looked like unaccounted for mobile phones etc.
    I know WOW is an emerging contranym, but in the same way that hypochondriacs are sometimes sick [eg Spike Milligan], WOW could coincide with something worth WOWing about!

  43. EGW @ #1220 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1200 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 6:03 pm

    IPSOS back as the darling of PB

    You really are thick Rex.
    BTW, how are you coming along with that link to show how the CFMMEU, not just a section of it, support Adani? Must be struggling a bit.

    Surely you’d agree that we need a genuinely progressive balance of power elected to the senate to protect the people and environment from socially irresponsible political donors …?

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6003192005001

    CFMEU is threatening to campaign against federal Queensland Labor candidates at the upcoming election if they do not support the state’s Adani Carmichael coal mine.

    The union says it will endorse individual candidates, rather than endorsing all of Labor’s Queensland candidates at the upcoming federal election….

  45. IPSOS has had Green primaries higher than the other polls (and Labor correspondingly lower) for its entire existence (at least for Federal polls). Note the Greens are unchanged at 13 (Lib down 1, Labor up 1).

    If it happens, well the Greens can be pleasantly surprised.

  46. With that Ipsos and probably tonight’s Newspoll the Mad Ad Man and his motley crew will be burning the midnight oil coming up with some new slogans.

  47. Phil Coorey now whingeing about the election date.. this one worth reading..

    ‘Once more, everyone involved in federal politics and the thousands of businesses, individuals and other organisations who are stuck in its orbit, are hostage to the stupid game of waiting for the election to be called.

    That the states in this country all have four-year terms, most of them fixed, makes it even more ridiculous that the biggest government in the land puts everybody through the same confidence-sapping charade every three years.’

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/why-the-election-has-been-delayed-20190407-p51bnw

  49. spr
    Gillard did not do that and she was slagged from pillar to post by the MSM and the Coalition.
    Morrison is no Gillard.
    Coorey should do a hat tip to Gillard.
    But he won’t.

  50. And just to remind people, the major party leaders get the NewsPoll results on the morning of their release – so Scotty knew what it was when he decided to wait another week, for the Australian public to come to their senses as see what a brilliant guy he is

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