Another night before Christmas

Doubts the election is quite as imminent as all that, and a slightly dated poll result showing business as usual pre-budget.

Or maybe seven nights. According to Anthony Galloway of the Herald Sun, “speculation intensified yesterday about whether Mr Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 11, or wait until the end of next week for a May 18 poll”. The latter would suit me better, if he’s reading. Liberal sources say the Prime Minister might be considering holding off “in the hope of a poll bounce after this week’s Budget”, which would be optimistic of him.

Also in the paper today is a rather unusual bit of opinion polling from YouGov Galaxy, which was conducted pre-budget – last Monday to Thursday, to be precise – from a large sample of 2224. The interesting bit is that Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, discouraging the notion that the New South Wales election might have changed anything. However, the larger purpose of the exercise is to burrow down into voters’ perceptions of the party leaders, taken to include Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer as well as the usual suspects. I don’t find this stuff particularly interesting myself, but there’s a lot of detail in the report linked to above, if you can access it.

UPDATE: The poll appeared not to provide the usual forced response follow-up for the initially undecided on voting intention, thus includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know”. The remainder went Labor 34%, Coalition 33%, Greens 9%, One Nation 8%, United Australia Party 3% and Australian Conservatives 2%. Excluding the don’t know component, this becomes Labor 37%, Coalition 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Another night before Christmas”

  1. the best way for an unemployed person to pay their bills was to get a job

    Fundamentally this is correct. Jobs provide income. Though you could argue about whether a job was the “best way”. But that’s not the problem. The problem is that when some say “get” they mean “get off your arse and take” while others mean “get lucky and find”. There is a world of difference in motivation and goals.

  2. EGW
    says:_
    Those who you malign as “red shirt droogs” are ordinary ALP members, union members or ALP supporters. Some on here are well aware of that because, like me, they are among them.
    When are you going to stop lying and disparaging decent people?
    _________________________________
    was just a joke Gough. I just called them droogs because they all dress in the same colour. like the droogs in A Clockwork Orange. Clearly the ALP volunteers are not a violent street gang.

  3. Rumours are abounding with my union connected people now that the election is about to be called.

    Apparently the Australian has stories ready to go on the CFMEU and John Setka and some seedy stuff on Shorten. Gulp.

  4. Confessions @ #897 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:41 am

    Itza:

    Are the Liberals running Dave Sharma again in Wentworth, or have they preselected someone else?

    Sharma as far as I know ‘fess. Having spent the money on campaign material and candidate recognition, it would be hard to imagine starting off over again, esp now Phelps is even more recognised.

    I think they thought they’d win with Sharma last time, albeit with a much reduced margin. Now he’s kinda stuck with it, or them, and vice versa.

  5. Victoria @ #897 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:42 am

    Rumours are abounding with my union connected people now that the election is about to be called.

    Apparently the Australian has stories ready to go on the CFMEU and John Setka and some seedy stuff on Shorten. Gulp.

    Why are the CFMMEU trying to prop up coal ?

    Why aren’t they convincing Labor to transition their workers away from coal much quicker than what they are ?

  6. Victoria @ #898 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:42 am

    Rumours are abounding with my union connected people now that the election is about to be called.

    Apparently the Australian has stories ready to go on the CFMEU and John Setka and some seedy stuff on Shorten. Gulp.

    Thinks:

    * Domestic Violence story on Setka.

    * Joe Bidenesque story on Shorten.

  7. I am posting an update to the Newspoll guesses, but I need to explain the list. Like yesterday when Shorten “hedged”, I want to make sure the nuances are as clear as I can make them.

    1. I will focus on Newspoll today, though I am also collecting for Essential, which will become my focus tomorrow.
    2. PBers have insufficient interest in Ipsos, so I am not collecting for Ipsos.
    3. A R’s wonderful extension hiccuped for me this morning. I leave my laptop running 24/7, so perhaps I hit an edge case. Please accept my apologies, I have refreshed and re-trawled but I may have missed your guess.
    4. If and election is called today you may wish to reconsider your guess.

    —————————–
    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-04-07

    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.6 to 46.4 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 50

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    56 / 44 bilko
    52 / 48 BK
    54 / 46 briefly
    55 / 45 bug1
    53 / 47 chinda63
    52 / 48 Confessions
    55 / 45 d-money
    54 / 46 Davidwh
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    53 / 47 Goll
    54 / 46 grimace
    55 / 45 HaveAchat
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    54 / 46 ItzaDream
    57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 lefty e
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    53 / 47 Matt31
    53 / 47 Mavis Davis
    53 / 47 max
    50 / 50 mikehilliard
    52 / 48 MM
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    56 / 44 OH
    55 / 45 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question *until the election
    53 / 47 Red13
    54 / 46 rhwombat
    56 / 44 Scott
    51 / 49 Sgh1969
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    52 / 48 Steve777
    55 / 45 swamprat
    55 / 45 Tom
    53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
    54 / 46 Whisper
    53 / 47 Work To Rule
    53 / 47 Yabba
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

  8. C@tmomma
    says:
    Thinks:
    * Domestic Violence story on Setka.
    * Joe Bidenesque story on Shorten.
    ______________________________
    You are aware that you are spreading rumours about Shorten right? You do see that?

  9. C@t

    On the right track with Setka.

    Shorten could be Bidenesque but from what I have been told, more inclined towards relationships and outcomes thereof.
    All im going to say.
    I’m hoping that the threat of defamation is going to stop them in their tracks

  10. nath @ #895 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    EGW
    says:_
    Those who you malign as “red shirt droogs” are ordinary ALP members, union members or ALP supporters. Some on here are well aware of that because, like me, they are among them.
    When are you going to stop lying and disparaging decent people?
    _________________________________
    was just a joke Gough. I just called them droogs because they all dress in the same colour. like the droogs in A Clockwork Orange. Clearly the ALP volunteers are not a violent street gang.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Your language is gratuitously offensive.

  11. I hope the election is called today, though I admit to disappointment in not being able to watch a clearly frustrated Penny Wong in Senate Estimates this week.

  12. How can there be any dirt on Shorten after 6 years as LOTO? Surely any sudden dropping of dirt 4 weeks from an election will just be seen as opportunistic and cynical.
    And as for union bashing, it is a bit 1970s, isn’t it. May as well call him a communist.

  13. Rex Douglas @ #903 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:52 am

    C@tmomma @ #901 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:50 am

    Victoria @ #898 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:42 am

    Rumours are abounding with my union connected people now that the election is about to be called.

    Apparently the Australian has stories ready to go on the CFMEU and John Setka and some seedy stuff on Shorten. Gulp.

    Thinks:

    * Domestic Violence story on Setka.

    * Joe Bidenesque story on Shorten.

    What makes you think that ?

    Sounds like Rex has inside knowledge.
    Is he a Newscorpse journo?
    That would explain a lot.

  14. Late Riser @ #909 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 9:01 am

    I hope the election is called today, though I admit to disappointment in not being able to watch a clearly frustrated Penny Wong in Senate Estimates this week.

    They said on Insiders it is being delayed for another week, and Senators are making their way back to Canberra today.

  15. EGW @ #913 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:05 am

    Rex Douglas @ #903 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:52 am

    C@tmomma @ #901 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:50 am

    Victoria @ #898 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:42 am

    Rumours are abounding with my union connected people now that the election is about to be called.

    Apparently the Australian has stories ready to go on the CFMEU and John Setka and some seedy stuff on Shorten. Gulp.

    Thinks:

    * Domestic Violence story on Setka.

    * Joe Bidenesque story on Shorten.

    What makes you think that ?

    Sounds like Rex has inside knowledge.
    Is he a Newscorpse journo?
    That would explain a lot.

    Those ‘rumours’ hadn’t been on my mind until C@tmomma brought them up.

  16. Confessions @ #907 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:55 am

    Itza:

    Thanks. I guess it makes sense to recycle the by-election campaign material.

    And I’ve seen one poster for Tim Murray (Labor) so he’s on again; good. There’ll probably not be the rash of independents this time, cognisant that Phelps has the indi vote all but sown up.

  17. nath @ #905 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 10:54 am

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Thinks:
    * Domestic Violence story on Setka.
    * Joe Bidenesque story on Shorten.
    ______________________________
    You are aware that you are spreading rumours about Shorten right? You do see that?

    No, I am aware that people like you have immediately tried to construe it as that and would no doubt use it in the future in a malign way if you felt like it. However, I was merely speculating about the sort of angles, based upon previous stories by News Corp about Mr Setka, and utterings by the inutterably awful Ms Cash in Senate Estimates have given an insight into the thinking of the Liberal Party as it pertains to Bill Shorten.

    Or, I could be wrong. Mere speculation is like that.

  18. Union bashing? Don’t we mean 1870s?
    Glad to see our Eastern cousins are now a light year or so closer to real time in the West.
    And, good old Sunday Times here still doing all it can to bat for the LNP, had a two-page spread on Galaxy with lots and lots of figures on who wants what but, as far as I could see, the 53-47 TPP was missing in action in the spread. The Editorial, which tends to being more balanced (strangely enough) than that in the West, was clearly written before Morrison’s apparent decision to stall for a week. In the meantime it was all C Porter, and the view that if his seat can be held (plus three others), the LNP will “win” the election – Porter’s/ST’s word not mine. I could not follow their strange logic. I guess it goes, if we (LNP) loose no seats in WA then we must be winning elsewhere in Oz – ipso facto, we will win election……………Wow, wish I could have thought of that.

  19. There are only three ways for the domestic private sector to be in surplus.

    Scenario 1. For the currency issuer to run a deficit that is larger than the nation’s current account deficit.

    Scenario 2. For the currency issuer to a run a deficit and for the nation to have a current account surplus.

    Scenario 3. For the currency issuer to run a surplus that is smaller than the nation’s current account surplus.

    The Australian domestic private sector typically runs current account deficits with regard to the rest of the world.

    The last time we had a current account surplus was in 1973.

    This happens because the rest of the world wants to net save Australian dollars. The rest of the world doesn’t want to net spend Australian dollars. The rest of the world sees Australian dollar-denominated financial wealth as a desirable asset to hold.

    So scenario 1 describes Australia’s macroeconomic accounting reality.

    The currency issuer is SUPPOSED to be running a deficit to meet the spending and saving desires of the non-government sector of Australia’s macroeconomy.

    The relevant question is whether the deficit is of the right size to achieve full employment with price stability.

    The answer to that question is that the deficit is currently too small. The reason is that unemployment is far above 1 or 2 percent (it’s at 5 percent), and time-related under-employment is far above zero (it’s at 8.1 percent), and hidden unemployment is far above zero (there are 900,000 hidden unemployed Australians according to the ABS February 2018 Participation, Job Search and Mobility survey).
    https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6226.0

    It is folly for the Australian Government to actually make a fiscal surplus a goal of its activities.

    It is macroeconomic malpractice to do that.

    People are suffering needlessly because of it.

  20. Victoria
    I’m no great fan of Bill. ( relates to Gillard). But I hope the rumours don’t start yet another smear campaign. If it’s the Libs or the union, makes no difference.
    Any smear campaign will backfire on the people responsible.

  21. So what, the Libs are going to try to reprise Shorten’s first wife? Or ridiculous rumours about ‘the women in Shorten’s office?

    They fell flat because the substance of the first one was already dealt with and the second had no foundation.

    I’d suggest the Libs have watched the reaction to Biden’s affectionate manner and thought “gee, can’t we besmirch Shorten on something like that?”

    Meanwhile the serial ‘hugger’ who bearhugs people when they’d rather not, keeps on trotting out the drivel in defence of his own, and his party’s incompetence.

    Welcome to election 2019 folks!

  22. Wasn’t there a rather hefty fine issued in the last couple of days against a union over an “illegal strike”, or something? At the time it struck me as a disproportionate amount when compared with fines for practices that result in a worker’s death. But perhaps the fine will be used to underpin the “bad union” meme.

  23. Chris Bowen
    ‏Verified account @Bowenchris
    Apr 6

    .⁦@billshortenmp⁩ I’ve actually decided this is my favourite Terry McCrann column ever. And the best bit is when he accuses other journalists of being biased.

  24. jenauthor @ #927 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 11:18 am

    So what, the Libs are going to try to reprise Shorten’s first wife? Or ridiculous rumours about ‘the women in Shorten’s office?

    They fell flat because the substance of the first one was already dealt with and the second had no foundation.

    I’d suggest the Libs have watched the reaction to Biden’s affectionate manner and thought “gee, can’t we besmirch Shorten on something like that?”

    Meanwhile the serial ‘hugger’ who bearhugs people when they’d rather not, keeps on trotting out the drivel in defence of his own, and his party’s incompetence.

    Welcome to election 2019 folks!

    ” ‘the women in Shorten’s office’ ”

    never heard of that until now

  25. Libs back to boats:

    Liberal Party
    ‏Verified account @LiberalAus
    5m5 minutes ago
    Replying to @Bowenchris

    We won’t be lectured by Bill Shorten and Labor who ran government-funded advertising DURING the 2013 election campaign about their failed border protection policies.

  26. Another reason the “rumours” that Victoria is hearing are getting attention, is that they would be a reprise of the successful NSW election tactics. Dirt on the opposition leader was a factor.

  27. There really shouldn’t be any rumourmongering re Shortens private life or any other politicians private life on pollbludger.

  28. Everyone already thinks Setka is the day quintessential union thug. Stories about him wouldn’t add anything.

    And although it was very successful for decades it has become apparent that unions are both, unsurprisingly, overwhelmingly good for workers (even non-unionised workers) and also less obviously very good for the economy as a whole.

    The apparent over suffocation of unions, and the complete lack of regulation of business, regulation that might prevent the greatest greed and over reach and limit the exploitation, injury and death of workers makes it very apparent who the real threat to most Australians is.

    If you had no choice but to run over a CEO or one of the ‘worst’ of the unionists like Setka, you’d run over the CEO every single time. Sekta’s greatest offence from the brain dead eyes of news corp consumers is his very effective advocacy for his members, ie doing his job well.

    If only he’d done his job as a father and a husband quite as well he’d be in a much better position. Of course we only know about his failures as a father and a husband because news corp and its racist
    brain dead audience didn’t like him. If an LNP type, say Barnaby Joyce as a random example, had committed the same failures, the media would definitely have covered it up, at least until it had been all over the socials for two years and there was a way to exploit a comparatively innocent pregnant woman to sell papers.

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