Newspoll breakdowns and BludgerTrack redux

New state-level numbers for federal voting intention take the edge off for the Coalition in Victoria and Western Australia, but weaken them in (of all places) New South Wales.

If you’re reading this on Tuesday morning, the results of the Essential Research poll should be available at The Guardian, but I’m on Sydney time right now and thus unable to post it overnight like I normally would (UPDATE: See below). What we do have is the latest quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll in The Australian, which aggregate the four polls published so far this year. Some of these results seem a bit quirky this time out – the political class will be looking askance at the finding that the Coalition has recovered three points in Victoria, and that the Greens vote is lower there than that it is in New South Wales and Queensland. Nonetheless, let the record note that poll has Labor’s lead steady at 54-46 in New South Wales, but down from 56-44 to 53-47 in Victoria, 54-46 to 53-47 in Queensland, 53-47 to 51-49 in Western Australia, and 58-42 to 56-44 in South Australia. Labor’s national lead in this period fell to 53-47 from 55-45 in the previous quarter. The Australian has packed the full results into one report, rather than rolling out state and then age, gender and region breakdowns like they sometimes do. Apart from the age breakdowns (not to mention the leadership ratings), you can find the primary vote numbers in the BludgerTrack poll results archive.

With the Newspoll numbers in hand, I have finally done what I would regard as a proper full update of BludgerTrack for the first time since the start of the year. Up to now, I have just been updating the national numbers, leaving the state-level relativities as they were at the end of last year. This is because I have hitherto had only the data provided by Essential Research to work with for the current year, and this was a shallow pool for the smaller states, where there was rather too much noise mixed together with the signal. Now that it’s all in the mix, the national seat projection is unchanged, but this comes from Coalition gains in Victoria and Western Australia (two seats apiece) cancelling out losses in New South Wales and Queensland (also two apiece).

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Essential Research poll records a one-point move back to the Coalition, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. The Guardian’s report notes this may have been assisted by static from the New South Wales state election, since it records an increase in the Coalition primary vote in the state from 39% to 41%. The national primary votes were Coalition 39% (up two), Labor 36% (down two), the Greens 10% (up two) and One Nation 7% (steady).

Other findings related directly or indirectly to the Christchurch attacks, including approval ratings for a range of international leaders which had Jacinda Ardern on 71% favourable, compared with 41% for Scott Morrison, 36% for Angela Markel, 31% for Teresa May and 19% for Donald Trump. High uncommitted responses were recorded for Merkel and May, at 42% and 38% respectively. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said social media platforms should be required to prevent the broadcast of violent material; 49% believed media outlets that have provided platforms for extremist and racist views bore some responsibility for the Christchurch attacks; 42% believed major party politicians in Australia had deiberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment; 40% believed Christchurch was an isolated act rather than being connected to broarder debates; 37% reported regularly hearing racist or Islamaphobic statements.

Questions on the federal budget produced typical responses with respect to budget spending priorities, with health, education and pensions most favoured, although it’s perhaps telling that affordable housing came fourth out of a list of 14. Fifty-eight per cent expected the budget would be good for the well off and 50% believed it would benefit business, but only 19% expected to benefit personally, and 34% thought it would be bad or very bad. Other than that, “ a majority of voters want more spending in health, education and aged pensions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,835 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns and BludgerTrack redux”

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  2. ItzaDream @7:00PM.
    “Unwanted hugs are a creepy invasion of personal space. In the diplomatic arena, it was ignorant and vulgar.”

    Agree. You don’t hug strangers.

  3. That’s just embarrassing and creepy.

    How many other World leaders has he hugged?

    The man has no shame.

  6. Morrison gives me the creeps – hugs or not.

    Is just that I don’t like him at all that I see his efforts at ‘compassionate’ language to be false?

  9. rhwombat, thanks for the link. I ‘think’ of thinking as exercises in Awareness, and I am still toying with a structure using 5 levels.
    1 is awareness of the world and responding to it.
    2 is awareness of self, or the boundary between self and not-self.
    3 is awareness of others acting as unique motivated entities.
    4 is awareness of groups acting as motivated entities.
    5 is awareness of invented worlds (math, fiction, games).

    I came up with these levels back when I started tinkering with AI frameworks. I can see plants inhabiting the first 4 levels. Humans excel in the 5th level.

  13. Re HugGate™

    As Boerwar would say, that’s what happens if you only have a ‘light mobile force’, for an army.

  16. Cud Chewer

    An emergency poll ‘fix’
    .
    Comedian Zelenskiy maintains strong lead in Ukraine presidential poll

    he poll by KIIS research body, the final survey for the election’s first round, showed Zelenskiy on 20.9 percent of votes, with incumbent Petro Poroshenko second on 13.7 percent and opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko third on 9.7 percent.

    Thirty-nine candidates have registered for the election. If no candidate wins 50 percent of the votes cast, the top two will face each other in a run-off on April 21.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-election-poll/comedian-zelenskiy-maintains-strong-lead-in-ukraine-presidential-poll-idUSKCN1R91DF

  18. Thanks for the reminder Cud.
    Lateriser if you are around, my tip for Newspoll is 54-46, the cop out choice, same as last time.

  19. Bernie Sanders is the most popular politician in the United States.

    He is beloved by Democratic voters in particular, but he appeals strongly to Independents as well because of his staunchly progressive economic message.

    Butt hurt Hillary Clinton supporters gave us Trump. Fortunately they are a spent force politically and just embarrass themselves for old time’s sake.

  23. You know you’ve lost and got nothing when:

    Butt hurt Hillary Clinton supporters gave us Trump

    You need an anal sexual assault joke and a person who isn’t a candidate this time at all.

  25. John Reidy, I speculated this morning that the minor parties will seize the opportunity to take some primary votes off PHON. Lo and behold the Australian Conservatives put a flyer in my letterbox about the evils of Sharia law. The SFF are taking the opportunity to attack PHON is consistent with that. I’m waiting for Katter and Palmer.

  26. Late Riser:

    I think I will stick with Newspoll at 52-48 to ALP. Coalition always seems to poll better when parliament hasn’t sat.

  28. I was told today that the federal govt will very soon be in caretaker mode in relation to a grant our organisation has received. Apparently the contracts needed to be signed and returned by Monday cob at the latest, suggesting that caretaker period is very much imminent, with a trip to the GG on Thursday or Friday next week.

    I was also told it would be a six week election campaign, not five weeks. So I’m sure people can do the maths and arrive at May 18 as election day.

  29. I am sure Jacinta Ardern has the strength of character to quickly extricate all traces of scumo from her person and psyche.

  30. WeWantPaul @ #1770 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 6:43 pm

    You need an anal sexual assault joke and a person who isn’t a candidate this time at all.

    And the statement wasn’t even accurate to start with. Hurt Hillary Clinton supporters failed to stop us from getting 8 years of Obama. It was hurt Bernie supporters who helped give us Trump.

  31. The squeeling neg gearers will know all about it when the banks make a call on their assets because their borrowings exceed their asset values. Oink oink. Bargain priced houses for young couples.. One of the greatest and gutsiest policy moves in recent history. Labor definitely getting my second preference.

  33. Hurt Hillary Clinton supporters failed to stop us from getting 8 years of Obama. It was hurt Bernie supporters who helped give us Trump.

    True.

  34. Trump was a result of 8 years of a black president – really angering the white supremacists. Old animosities never die!

  35. ICanCu

    The squeeling neg gearers will know all about it when the banks make a call on their assets because their borrowings exceed their asset values.

    ________________________________

    It’s sad when someone glories in people possibly going bankrupt. Banks won’t necessarily lend to first home buyers, even if they are getting a bargain, if the economy is shocked into a spending freeze.

    That said, banks don’t spend a lot of time checking the day by day value of investment housing. Basically, as long as the loans are serviced the banks will not make life difficult for them.

    Sorry to disappoint you.

  36. “I was also told it would be a six week election campaign, not five weeks. So I’m sure people can do the maths and arrive at May 18 as election day.”

    Certainly, Morrison doesn’t want any Parliamentary scrutiny of his fake surplus giveaway Budget, he’ll shut down Parliament ASAP. I suggest next Friday so as to avoid Senate estimates. That would allow a campaign period of 5 weeks to May 11 or 6 weeks to May 18.

    Brace for a massive and noisy campaign of disinformation, smear and lies, with most of the media and all of the money campaigning for the forces of darkness. They have too much to lose. It won’t be pretty. At least the dog whistle has been broken.

  38. Just binged two episodes of Columbo on Youtube there were 12 ‘ad’ breaks…all of thme for Clive Palmer’s Loon Outfit…

  39. ICanCU @ #1780 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 8:14 pm

    The squeeling neg gearers will know all about it when the banks make a call on their assets because their borrowings exceed their asset values. Oink oink. Bargain priced houses for young couples.. One of the greatest and gutsiest policy moves in recent history. Labor definitely getting my second preference.

    Why not first preference?

  40. “It’s sad when someone glories in people possibly going bankrupt.”

    Why. Speculation is risky. Bad stuff happens to gamblers. Real Estate “Investors” bidding up home prices in quest of asset inflation are stealing the savings of the young looking for a place to live.

    Immoderate language? No more so than the talk from the Right of “stealing” retirement savings (ceasing handouts of free money to millionaires) or of the Greens being worse than Nazis.

  41. Personally I am never the instigator of a hug – other than with my wife and our daughter

    That includes with those where there is a history of greeting with a hug

    I exclusively respond – including with a peck on the cheek

    Back in the day’s of business it was always a hand shake – regardless of gender

    As can be gleaned from other comments I have put on here I have absolutely no time for Ad Man from Mad Men because I assess he is self serving and accordingly not genuine

    He just lacks the gravitas

  42. That would allow a campaign period of 5 weeks to May 11 or 6 weeks to May 18.

    The president of the Liberal branch here has said it will be a 6 week campaign. Unless she’s been misinformed, which could be likely given the disarray the party is in.

    Our local Liberal MP has been rolling out the funding announcements, including the biggie this week: federal money for a road train and heavy vehicle ring road which has been on the cards for the last decade, possibly longer.

  45. The thing about the hug is that Morrison appears to have acted differently meeting a head of government based on their gender. Would he have hugged Bill English or John Key ?
    Perhaps Robert Muldoon

  46. The quarantine of NG is a commercial decision to mitigate against disruption

    Where the purpose of lending is other than home purchase lending with principal plus Interest repayments over 25/30 years, that lending will be subject to periodic review, normally annual

    The Letter of Offer will include the Terms and Conditions of the lending including revaluations to confirm the Loan to Valuation Ratio

    If there is any breach correction is negotiated – the last resort being a Notice of Demand and the matter being put in the hands of Receivers (and their costs) leading to a distressed Mortgagee Auction then acting on the PC Clauses so bankruptcy

    So an option may be to pay down the exposure from the cash reserves – if any – of the borrower or available to the borrower

  47. ‘Confessions says:
    Friday, March 29, 2019 at 8:08 pm

    I was told today that the federal govt will very soon be in caretaker mode in relation to a grant our organisation has received. Apparently the contracts needed to be signed and returned by Monday cob at the latest, suggesting that caretaker period is very much imminent, with a trip to the GG on Thursday or Friday next week. ‘

    Hmmm… but can we rely on GG to set the ball in motion?

  48. Centre for Future Work
    ‏ @CntrFutureWork
    Mar 28

    Combined financial wealth of Australia’s richest 250 people: $320 billion (The Australian, “The List”).

    Combined financial assets of Australia’s poorest 6 million+ people (excl. super): $35 billion (ABS Cat. 6523.0).

    John Howard: “Inequality is a myth.”

    #ChangeTheRules
    :large

  49. JohnR @ #11532 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 8:58 pm

    The thing about the hug is that Morrison appears to have acted differently meeting a head of government based on their gender. Would he have hugged Bill English or John Key ?
    Perhaps Robert Muldoon
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I’m sure ScuMo weeps bitter tears into his pillow regarding the current perfidy of competent women. Now he’ll have to hug Dr (Waleed) Aly. Suffer ScuMo.

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