If you’re reading this on Tuesday morning, the results of the Essential Research poll should be available at The Guardian, but I’m on Sydney time right now and thus unable to post it overnight like I normally would (UPDATE: See below). What we do have is the latest quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll in The Australian, which aggregate the four polls published so far this year. Some of these results seem a bit quirky this time out – the political class will be looking askance at the finding that the Coalition has recovered three points in Victoria, and that the Greens vote is lower there than that it is in New South Wales and Queensland. Nonetheless, let the record note that poll has Labor’s lead steady at 54-46 in New South Wales, but down from 56-44 to 53-47 in Victoria, 54-46 to 53-47 in Queensland, 53-47 to 51-49 in Western Australia, and 58-42 to 56-44 in South Australia. Labor’s national lead in this period fell to 53-47 from 55-45 in the previous quarter. The Australian has packed the full results into one report, rather than rolling out state and then age, gender and region breakdowns like they sometimes do. Apart from the age breakdowns (not to mention the leadership ratings), you can find the primary vote numbers in the BludgerTrack poll results archive.
With the Newspoll numbers in hand, I have finally done what I would regard as a proper full update of BludgerTrack for the first time since the start of the year. Up to now, I have just been updating the national numbers, leaving the state-level relativities as they were at the end of last year. This is because I have hitherto had only the data provided by Essential Research to work with for the current year, and this was a shallow pool for the smaller states, where there was rather too much noise mixed together with the signal. Now that it’s all in the mix, the national seat projection is unchanged, but this comes from Coalition gains in Victoria and Western Australia (two seats apiece) cancelling out losses in New South Wales and Queensland (also two apiece).
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
The Essential Research poll records a one-point move back to the Coalition, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. The Guardian’s report notes this may have been assisted by static from the New South Wales state election, since it records an increase in the Coalition primary vote in the state from 39% to 41%. The national primary votes were Coalition 39% (up two), Labor 36% (down two), the Greens 10% (up two) and One Nation 7% (steady).
Other findings related directly or indirectly to the Christchurch attacks, including approval ratings for a range of international leaders which had Jacinda Ardern on 71% favourable, compared with 41% for Scott Morrison, 36% for Angela Markel, 31% for Teresa May and 19% for Donald Trump. High uncommitted responses were recorded for Merkel and May, at 42% and 38% respectively. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said social media platforms should be required to prevent the broadcast of violent material; 49% believed media outlets that have provided platforms for extremist and racist views bore some responsibility for the Christchurch attacks; 42% believed major party politicians in Australia had deiberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment; 40% believed Christchurch was an isolated act rather than being connected to broarder debates; 37% reported regularly hearing racist or Islamaphobic statements.
Questions on the federal budget produced typical responses with respect to budget spending priorities, with health, education and pensions most favoured, although it’s perhaps telling that affordable housing came fourth out of a list of 14. Fifty-eight per cent expected the budget would be good for the well off and 50% believed it would benefit business, but only 19% expected to benefit personally, and 34% thought it would be bad or very bad. Other than that, “ a majority of voters want more spending in health, education and aged pensions”.
“Late Riser says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 4:20 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/29/sydney-airport-flights-grounded-air-traffic-control-tower-evacuated
Is that an evacuation slide?”
According to Wikipedia, it’s an escape staircase. I’ve seen it from the road and also wondered if it was a slide for a quick evacuation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Airport_Air_Traffic_Control_Tower
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/this-is-a-tragic-loss-sydney-light-rail-construction-destroyed-heritage-site-20190322-p516qk.html
F****ng Hunt was the minister who refused to stop the work on the site – such a highly principled man with fully developed sensitivities to the destruction of all things indigenous.
lizzie @ #1686 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 4:24 pm
And heaven forbid that they might have someone from Labor to explain Labor policy.
Same thing happened with the MDB announcement.
Simon² Katich® @ #1698 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 4:50 pm
Oh, it’s the Vics who will be sipping from the keg of victory, again.
“On the verge of a massive batting collapse AND Sids and Patto getting injured.”
As a South Australian I do not have a lot invested in a Vic – NSW final. But this is funny. Current score in Vic second innings: “Vic 44/0” after leading on the first innings by 168, NSW having had an actual collapse and going out for 121.
So Vic are effectively 0/212 in their second innings. Poor Vic?
citizen @ #1700 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 3:52 pm
Well, well! Thank you muchly for looking that up. But how boring? A slide would be a so much more entertaining way of ending your shift……………..ahhh.
Socrates @ #1704 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 4:58 pm
It’s up to 0/216 and only three days for Victoria to bat. Glorious!
Follow the slaughter here!
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/8043/game/1150138/victoria-vs-new-south-wales-final-sheffield-shield-2018-19
Socrates @ #1697 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 4:45 pm
What’s wrong with “bullshit”?
booleanbach
Thanks for the link to the LR heritage destruction article. Sad. In principle I support light rail projects but the Sydney one was so badly rushed through planning it has caused so much avoidable harm, to say nothing of the cost.The outcome of the court case will be interesting.
EGW @ #1708 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 4:06 pm
Is that politically correct? 😉
Boerwar
The Maori were very quick off the mark when it came to adapting their agriculture.
..
.
Wheat growing and shipping
The rise of Māori agriculture was rapid between 1830 and the 1850s. Most of the coastal shipping in the North Island was under Māori ownership, and a large proportion of the food sold locally and exported to Australia was grown by Māori. By the 1850s wheat growing had become widespread throughout the North Island and Māori were building dam- or water-operated flour mills throughout the country. Between 1846 and 1860, 37 flour mills were built for Māori owners in Auckland province alone.
https://teara.govt.nz/en/ahuwhenua-maori-land-and-agriculture/page-1
Just can’t help themselves can they?
“Turnbull came up with the idea of having a major public service review, on the scale of that conducted under Nugget Coombs in the 1970s. Parkinson seemed an early enthusiast, and certainly had a hand in the terms of reference, if not, perhaps in the selection of all of those on the panel. What tended to distinguish the panel, in a manner that might symbolise the style and the failures of the Turnbull government, was that most of its members were mates of Turnbull, and most had backgrounds in the top end of town.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/can-thodey-or-shorten-stop-bleeding-in-the-public-service-20190329-p518sq.html
I repeat that Negative Gearing attracts exclusively SPECULATORS
Premised on full borrowing and the asset delivering a LOSS
Investors commit capital such that there is a NET PROFIT, and they repay debt such that there is an unencumbered asset returning PROFIT
Speculators survive exclusively on asset prices increasing – and as history which includes the likes of Storm Financial and a raft of other promoters of speculation educates us risk is accelerated, that risk being to the good order of society because of forced sales (including of collateral security and including the impact of Personal Covenant provisions in the security documentation)
Risk, risk and more risk
Promoted by Frydenberg
Mealy-mouthed journalists! No might about it!
I’ve never understood why my taxes should help pay off someone’s investment property.
I’ve found the source document for WB’s blog moderation policy.
I’d love to say something positive about FauxMo. Thus when I saw his presser following the Christchurch commemorative service, I thought for a moment that he’d discovered empathy; but his thinly disguised smirk revealed otherwise. This man is a well-oiled snake-oil salesman, who can’t conceal his manifold lack of depth.
Thank you everyone for your kind words and anecdotes. Just a little one of my own. The lady that the aggressive Alzheimers has happened to was the one of us who always did the right thing by her body and mind. Never smoked or drank alcohol. Organic food all the way. Blows my mind.
Anyway, I’ll stop going off-topic now. Cheers.
LR
It is “correct in principal” 🙂
Greensborough Growler (Block)
Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 5:29 pm
Comment #1713
I’ve found the source document for WB’s blog moderation policy
As amended –
Greensborough Growler @ #1716 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 5:29 pm
—
LMAO
Que?
Beaver!?! 😆
Happy Wet Beaver!
“It was a blue book. It wasn’t real thick.” As opposed to a certain red-headed clown.
So that is why some of David Attenborough’s documentaries are only now making their way to our screens?
‘poroti says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 5:14 pm
Boerwar
The Maori were very quick off the mark when it came to adapting their agriculture.
..
.
Wheat growing and shipping’
Ah. Interesting!
British House of Parliament has re-purposed itself as a comedy venue.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1111244661341986817
Obviously not much imagination or creativity went into producing that list.
Sounds like a breeding ground for the Australian Conservatives. 🙂
GG
That would be the Pàrlamaid na h-Alba.
https://www.sciencealert.com/some-people-can-actually-hear-silent-gifs-and-scientists-are-discovering-why
Can you hear the thud? 1 in 5 people can, according to the article. Synaesthesia! (I just like the image.)
That would be Captain’s Pick 7 of Morrison’s 12 preferred projects for pissing taxpayers funds up the wall.
Sanders is an white guy who was ungracious, very ungracious when a party he wasn’t even a member of didn’t select him as their Presidential candidate. He is now rightly seen as a damaged divisive character, the sooner he is out of the race the better the dems chances to beat Trump. If only he’d swallow that massive ego and graciously support a progressive woman person of colour and do so fulsomely from about now. The sooner his goons and bros stop trying to destroy any other dem candidate the better the dems chances. Sanders is Trump’s best hope of re-election.
Bad light stems the collapse.
Only a short reprieve for the Vics. Enjoy your Melbourne Bitter while you can. Because it will be cheap gin to drown your sorrows come early day 4.
You have to give it to Hanson. She is a master framer. A sting on her and her goon lieutenants attempting to sell Australia’s gun laws to the highest bidder to fund her slimy beaver ( 😉 ) of a party, has been framed by her as interference in Australia’s politics by a Middle Eastern spy, hitting all the notes that are music to her supporters’ ears.
I just wish that people who support her would wake up to themselves that they are not supporting some harmless former fish and chip shop owner woman of the people but a woman, and her party, every bit as dangerous to Australia and Australian democracy, as Trump is to America and American democracy.
Late Riser,
I can hear the thud! Plus you’ve never had a migraine until you’ve had a synaesthetic migraine where you can’t even lie in bed and look out the window because the dirt that is on the window makes you feel even more nauseous!! The last time it happened to me I had to scream out to my son to go and get the Windex and clean the bedroom window toot sweet! 😆
Although there is a positive benefit to it as well. I’m one of those people who can listen to beautiful music and it makes my hairs stand on end and I tingle all over. 🙂
Could I give it to the New York’s 14th congressional district representative instead?
C@tmomma, wow. Swings and roundabouts I hope. My boring brain does none of that. (Though music can affect me.)
Late Riser @ #1738 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 6:29 pm
I can’t even watch it for more than a second because it makes me feel ill!
But thank you for putting it up because it explained something I had heretofore had no explanation for. I have also just sent it to my mother to ask her if she is similarly affected.
“In order to reclaim the english language from its conservative torturers, we should come up with a counter to the term “politically correct”. Lets call it “ethically correct” or “correct in principle”.”
Or just call it “common courtesy” or “politeness”.
Scrott , there was a reason she went for the hand shake.
————————————————-
The Kiwi PM greeted Morrison as he arrived in the city for the service.
Ardern offered her hand while Morrison went in for the hug – resulting in an awkward moment in front of the cameras.
Give me a hug,” Morrison said,
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12217660
Morrison thinks hugs play well to the peeps.
For anyone with irrelevance deprivation syndrome, the stunningly beautiful Sombrero Galaxy :
https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap190329.html
Late Riser @ #11038 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 6:15 pm
On the topic of weird science and things that are brighter than the Orange Fishwife – try the excellent Big Ideas episode on sentience in plants.
Unwanted hugs are a creepy invasion of personal space. In the diplomatic arena, it was ignorant and vulgar. A upward moving bent knee would have been my response.
WeWantPaul @ #1734 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 6:17 pm
The sooner the Dems pick a candidate not owned by the banks , the NRA and the 1% the sooner their society can repair.
C@t
Yep, poor Scrott would have been desperate for the photo-op and not being about the only one this week Ardern did not hug.
poroti @ #1743 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 6:47 pm
Outside of the LNP bubble the real world slaps ScoMo in the face.