If you’re reading this on Tuesday morning, the results of the Essential Research poll should be available at The Guardian, but I’m on Sydney time right now and thus unable to post it overnight like I normally would (UPDATE: See below). What we do have is the latest quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll in The Australian, which aggregate the four polls published so far this year. Some of these results seem a bit quirky this time out – the political class will be looking askance at the finding that the Coalition has recovered three points in Victoria, and that the Greens vote is lower there than that it is in New South Wales and Queensland. Nonetheless, let the record note that poll has Labor’s lead steady at 54-46 in New South Wales, but down from 56-44 to 53-47 in Victoria, 54-46 to 53-47 in Queensland, 53-47 to 51-49 in Western Australia, and 58-42 to 56-44 in South Australia. Labor’s national lead in this period fell to 53-47 from 55-45 in the previous quarter. The Australian has packed the full results into one report, rather than rolling out state and then age, gender and region breakdowns like they sometimes do. Apart from the age breakdowns (not to mention the leadership ratings), you can find the primary vote numbers in the BludgerTrack poll results archive.
With the Newspoll numbers in hand, I have finally done what I would regard as a proper full update of BludgerTrack for the first time since the start of the year. Up to now, I have just been updating the national numbers, leaving the state-level relativities as they were at the end of last year. This is because I have hitherto had only the data provided by Essential Research to work with for the current year, and this was a shallow pool for the smaller states, where there was rather too much noise mixed together with the signal. Now that it’s all in the mix, the national seat projection is unchanged, but this comes from Coalition gains in Victoria and Western Australia (two seats apiece) cancelling out losses in New South Wales and Queensland (also two apiece).
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
The Essential Research poll records a one-point move back to the Coalition, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. The Guardian’s report notes this may have been assisted by static from the New South Wales state election, since it records an increase in the Coalition primary vote in the state from 39% to 41%. The national primary votes were Coalition 39% (up two), Labor 36% (down two), the Greens 10% (up two) and One Nation 7% (steady).
Other findings related directly or indirectly to the Christchurch attacks, including approval ratings for a range of international leaders which had Jacinda Ardern on 71% favourable, compared with 41% for Scott Morrison, 36% for Angela Markel, 31% for Teresa May and 19% for Donald Trump. High uncommitted responses were recorded for Merkel and May, at 42% and 38% respectively. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said social media platforms should be required to prevent the broadcast of violent material; 49% believed media outlets that have provided platforms for extremist and racist views bore some responsibility for the Christchurch attacks; 42% believed major party politicians in Australia had deiberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment; 40% believed Christchurch was an isolated act rather than being connected to broarder debates; 37% reported regularly hearing racist or Islamaphobic statements.
Questions on the federal budget produced typical responses with respect to budget spending priorities, with health, education and pensions most favoured, although it’s perhaps telling that affordable housing came fourth out of a list of 14. Fifty-eight per cent expected the budget would be good for the well off and 50% believed it would benefit business, but only 19% expected to benefit personally, and 34% thought it would be bad or very bad. Other than that, “ a majority of voters want more spending in health, education and aged pensions”.
Jenauthor
Sorry, it was @ 9.46am.
So bloody sad today. Just found out one of the Mums from our cohort has got aggressive Early Onset Alzheimers Disease. She has gone from being a vivacious local music teacher and organiser of Australia’s Biggest Morning Tea in our area to someone with the IQ and self-awareness of a vegetable in just under a year.
*sadfacewithlotsoftears* 🙁
steve davis @ #1652 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 3:41 pm
So stark is the gap between PM Ardern and our lot – it depresses me.
https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2019/mar/29/jacinda-arderns-full-christchurch-speech-let-us-be-the-nation-we-believe-ourselves-to-be-video
Siddle is unavailable.
C@T
Sorry to hear that. That is fast.
Late Riser say…
It’s all becoming clearer.
Global warming will cause the sea level to rise, resulting in wider seas and oceans surrounding us, meaning our borders will become harder to breach and hence more secure.
You know it makes sense! 😆
Adern has been a fantastic leader in the context of the Christchurch White Supremacist Massacre.
Other than that, how is the NZ economy travelling?
C@t
Such a cruel disease especially in the timeframe you describe.We have a friend here whose husband is in hospital permanently with the disease. She visits him everyday for the last 4 years and I have to admire how she copes with it all.Lets hope there is some type of cure soon.
As somebody pointed out earlier, the local West went over the top for Morrison this morning – 7 photos it was said. There was a double wrap-around ostensibly to publicise a soon-to-be money raiser with Morrison’s avuncular face on the front page with two cute looking kids. Inside this smarm, were even more photos ….the telling one being one with Morrison with an equally grand-fatherly Stokes showing his support.
It is clear with the import of the likes of Bolt and other Murdoch writers, not to mention our local Paul Murray, any pretence the paper is more than just a mouthpiece for Stokes – and his paper’s support for the Liberals – is at an end.
The West talks a lot about “readership” these days, but not too much about circulation. In the same stable, the Sunday Times, is now out for cut-price $2 on Sunday……………….so this too must be struggling.
SK
The Siddle ship has sailed
Scrott speaking in Christchurch.
How the hell could it weaken them ? Well I suppose the gunman was an Australian………………. … hang on, Scotty solved that little problem .
I think he got away with it 🙂
https://outline.com/CnLpsM
SK,
Let me join you in your Siddle fandom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXm8tF-lJP4
I was there!
The Maori population was significantly larger in proportion to the European settlers, in a much smaller geographical space. The Europeans really had no choice but to formally make peace with them. Whereas in Australia, it was basically just open season on the sparsely populated Aborigines.
‘Julie Bishop says she could not trust a New Zealand Labour government after Barnaby fiasco.’
Remember this from another entitled halfwit.
Boerwar @ #1659 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 3:47 pm
She a bit too leftist for you , Boerwar ..?
ABC 24 has been begging voters to support our investors, who only want to help the nation by risking their money to provide homes for us. If neg gearing is abolished (grandfathering needs to be emphasised much more by Bowen), house prices will fall and rents will rise. Armageddon follows.
I can’t work out the logic of this but I’m sure they must be right. 🙁
jenauthor @ #1510 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 8:46 am
I commented on acknowledging the Aboriginal massacres, but I think we need to remember them too. WW1 memorials are spread around Australia. When we notice them they remind us. We should have memorials for the many Aboriginal massacres. The wrong should be acknowledged and remembered.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/07/its-like-a-big-dark-cloud-has-lifted-the-town-dragged-into-reconciliation-photo-essay
I thought the age of entitlement was over.Negative gearing and franking credits are all part of it too.
Diogenes @ #1599 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 1:18 pm
Its probably best voters ‘deal’ with trump – even though I’d love to see him in clink – it would probably make him a hero to too many.
Only wish I was confident voters will chuck him out or the Dems will get their act together.
Hope is not much of a strategy – but its up to the yanks.
C@tmomma (Block)
Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 3:42 pm
Comment #1649
steve davis (Block)
Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 3:48 pm
Comment #1655
So sad. 😢😢
C@tmomma @ #1652 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 3:42 pm
C@t that is sad and fast. I have lived through seeing my father, then brother, contract a familial version of Early Onset Dementia. Both lived for a number of years with it and tracked very similarly. Both were 64 when they died. Very hard to watch when you know what to expect. Made all the harder by my brother being in magnificent physical shape when he started to go downhill.
Diogenes says: Friday, March 29, 2019 at 1:18 pm
dave
Remember our bet about whether Trump would be as bad as we expected? I said he wouldn’t be.
I was wrong. And he’s definitely not going to improve in the next two years.
I don’t care who the democrat nominee is as long as they win.
****************************************************************
I think Washington Post columnist Max Boot had the best description of Trump :
Trump may not be the worst ever President ……. but he is the worst ever person to be President !!!
Nick Kyrgios could learn so much from Ash Barty. She is a fantastic sportswoman and a great role model. An inspirational aussie.
“Tones only behind 54 – 46.”
Is that the kind of polling that our William or Kevin B would do the snark about or credible??
Would love it if credible. 🙂
I don’t suppose any of these Bernadis and Sheldons and holy fawkwits, not their capitalist backers, mention planet Earth is their manifestos.
Rex Douglas @ #1673 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 4:10 pm
Regrettably, this seems to be true in relation to most sports.
The women are much better role models than the men. The men need to lift their game.
Of the voters who normally vote Republican but voted for Obama twice, and then voted for Trump in 2016, most could be won over by Bernie Sanders. But they will vote for Trump again if the Democrats are stupid enough to nominate somebody other than Sanders.
The people who run down Sanders don’t realize that the 1990s ended two decades ago and that voters no longer buy the snake oil that neoliberal centrists are selling.
Neoliberal centrists are legends in their own lunch time. Their understanding of macroeconomic reality is tenuous. Their interest in what voters experience is close to non-existent. They continue to cling to the belief that neoliberal centrism is by definition what Very Serious People espouse, and therefore what voters, sensibly instructed, should endorse. They don’t realize that their beliefs are outdated.
Bevan Shields
The Morrison government has given former Nationals federal director Scott Mitchell a seat on the board of Snowy Hydro Corporation #auspol
I’m starting to think we are staring at the armageddon we have to have. Please convince me I’m wrong. And wishful thinking wont cut it.
lizzie @ #1666 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 4:00 pm
ABC radio flogging same stale dish.
Talking about Labor policy announcement, but only had the opposition spokesman and someone from a vested interest group.
Situation normal in ABC newsland.
Rick Wilson jumps in :
‘Ridiculous Bullshit’ as ‘Better,’ ‘Smarter’ Trump Rages Against the Losers
If there was any doubt Trump is sticking to the base-only strategy built by and for Fox News and the Trump fan club (but I repeat myself), his rally Thursday night resolved it.
If you wanted a taste of President Trump’s 2020 Make America Great Again Again pitch, you got a steaming farrago of it in Grand Rapids on Thursday: boasting, horseshit, and red meat, spiced with outright lies.
His vindication party—his first rally since the conclusion of Robert Mueller’s work—may only be held aloft by the thin reed of the Barr letter and the fallacious idea that he’s been totally, completely, utterly, entirely, and forever vindicated by Mueller and an at least 300-page report none of us have even seen.
Back to the president, he reminded us just how thin-skinned and class-conscious he remains:
“I have a better education than them, I’m smarter than them, I went to the best schools they didn’t. Much more beautiful house, much more beautiful apartment. Much more beautiful everything. And I’m president, and they’re not.”
Trump correctly noted that he “never left center stage” in 2016. He’s not wrong. His antics remain crack to the media that rewarded him with billions of in-kind dollars of exposure. His rallies remain an essential tool in holding the camera on him at all times. The themes are trite, the lies are large, but the picture is there, on every screen.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-mocks-ridiculous-bullshit-at-post-mueller-report-grand-rapids-rally?ref=home
Greg Jericho:
Of the 68 millionaires in 2016-17 who paid ZERO tax, 37 got franking credits worth an avge of $209,837
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/29/sydney-airport-flights-grounded-air-traffic-control-tower-evacuated
Is that an evacuation slide?
phoenixRED @ #1681 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 3:16 pm
And if that quote is accurate, chuck a “childish” in there somewhere. Like kindergarten childish, because by year 3 or so most children can come up with better boasts and insults than that.
If Trump’s revenge is “look at what I have and you don’t have”, it’s pretty lame.
The push for a Living Wage has been going on for a while in NZ . They are sneaking up to it. The latest movement.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1812/S00581/minimum-wage-a-step-closer-to-the-living-wage.htm
How ‘unAustralian’ of him 🙂
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12217534
adrian
Seems ABC aren’t giving the whole story anyway. The more misunderstanding, the worse for Labor. (ABC shrugs).
c@momma, what part of Australia are you in? If you’re in eastern Melbourne I may be able to put you in touch with some great support services for Alzheimer’s. But I don’t want to over promise. It’s a horrible and individual journey. Much love to you
He doesnt have to be inspirational. He is a 23yo tennis player. He doesnt bully anyone, or commit violent crimes, or dehumanise people based on race, religion or colour. Give him a break.
But yes. Barty is the tops.
Victoria on the brink of a massive batting collapse.
LR
“Fight political correctness and attacks on Christmas, Easter, Australia Day and ANZAC day”
I know it is only Bernardi’s rant sheet, but isn’t it absurd to say attacking Anzac Day is politically correct? Quite the opposite. When you think about it, after John Winston Howard started a 20 year torrent of khaki being poured over all our memorial days, sporting events and anything paid for by the government, worshipping Anzac Day has become a national duty. It is what has become politically correct. If you dared suggest that sending Australian troops to a hair brained war in Iraq might not be wise you were branded a communist.
How typical of thin skinned, intellectually mediocre conservatives to brand any criticism of their pet obsessions as “politically correct”. Can’t they think up a better lie? Probably not.
Simon² Katich® @ #1689 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 4:26 pm
Smashing racquets , tanking , mouthing off at umpires… is ok for our youngsters to learn..?
The culture of tennis behaviour is appalling.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/what-pauline-hanson-hasnt-learnt-in-23-years/news-story/a55ade40424fcd04e6da620c1d788eab
SK
“Victoria on the brink of a massive batting collapse.”
More massive than the one NSW has already had?
‘Big A Adrian says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 3:56 pm
The Maori population was significantly larger in proportion to the European settlers, in a much smaller geographical space. The Europeans really had no choice but to formally make peace with them. Whereas in Australia, it was basically just open season on the sparsely populated Aborigines.’
Herewith, some key differences mooted:
1. Having an agricultural society, Maori developed surpluses which could be used as supplies during war. It also enabled the formation of larger armies. It also enabled larger armies to travel long distances and to maintain themselves in the field.
2. Maori had large canoes developed specifically for war. These magnified all the items in 1.
3. Maori had highly evolved indigenous fortifications these were quickly adapted to warfare involving fire arms. It can reasonably be held that Maori were world leaders in innovations in this area.
4. During early contact Maori traded pigs, women, and sweet potatoes in return for muskets. These were speedily incorporated into Maori tactics and strategy. In relation breechloading non rifled muskets, a mix of Maori weapons and muskets could be more decisive than muskets on their own.
5. Maori exposure to European diseases predated the main military conflict periods by well over a generation and in some cases by well over two generations. Germs and steel did not arrive at the same time.
6. Arguably, Maori social organizaton and culture were far more heavily attuned to status derived from war fighting than were Indigenous societies and cultures.
7. Maori were far more adaptable when it came to military formations and tactics than was the British Army of that era.
8. The terrain, with much of the logistics delivered over foot paths and by canoe routes, favoured Maori over the British units. New Zealand’s primeval forests and midges must have been a nightmare for British units.
Socrates, yes. The word irony is wasted on this lot, being both insufficient and incomprehensible. I like to turn it around, it’s not politically correct, but correct politically.
Shouldn’t a large sequence of low scores in quick succession be called a dimunitive batting collapse’?
Simon² Katich® @ #1688 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 4:27 pm
Doesn’t matter. 205 is more than a stretch for NSW in their second and third innings!
LR
Agreed.
In order to reclaim the english language from its conservative torturers, we should come up with a counter to the term “politically correct”. Lets call it “ethically correct” or “correct in principle”.
Then we can call the nonsense Cori and co dream up “conservatively correct” or “ruling class correct”, or maybe just “incorrect”.
On the verge of a massive batting collapse AND Sids and Patto getting injured.
You may as well save yourselves some time and go and cry into your vic bitters now.