If you’re reading this on Tuesday morning, the results of the Essential Research poll should be available at The Guardian, but I’m on Sydney time right now and thus unable to post it overnight like I normally would (UPDATE: See below). What we do have is the latest quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll in The Australian, which aggregate the four polls published so far this year. Some of these results seem a bit quirky this time out – the political class will be looking askance at the finding that the Coalition has recovered three points in Victoria, and that the Greens vote is lower there than that it is in New South Wales and Queensland. Nonetheless, let the record note that poll has Labor’s lead steady at 54-46 in New South Wales, but down from 56-44 to 53-47 in Victoria, 54-46 to 53-47 in Queensland, 53-47 to 51-49 in Western Australia, and 58-42 to 56-44 in South Australia. Labor’s national lead in this period fell to 53-47 from 55-45 in the previous quarter. The Australian has packed the full results into one report, rather than rolling out state and then age, gender and region breakdowns like they sometimes do. Apart from the age breakdowns (not to mention the leadership ratings), you can find the primary vote numbers in the BludgerTrack poll results archive.
With the Newspoll numbers in hand, I have finally done what I would regard as a proper full update of BludgerTrack for the first time since the start of the year. Up to now, I have just been updating the national numbers, leaving the state-level relativities as they were at the end of last year. This is because I have hitherto had only the data provided by Essential Research to work with for the current year, and this was a shallow pool for the smaller states, where there was rather too much noise mixed together with the signal. Now that it’s all in the mix, the national seat projection is unchanged, but this comes from Coalition gains in Victoria and Western Australia (two seats apiece) cancelling out losses in New South Wales and Queensland (also two apiece).
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
The Essential Research poll records a one-point move back to the Coalition, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. The Guardian’s report notes this may have been assisted by static from the New South Wales state election, since it records an increase in the Coalition primary vote in the state from 39% to 41%. The national primary votes were Coalition 39% (up two), Labor 36% (down two), the Greens 10% (up two) and One Nation 7% (steady).
Other findings related directly or indirectly to the Christchurch attacks, including approval ratings for a range of international leaders which had Jacinda Ardern on 71% favourable, compared with 41% for Scott Morrison, 36% for Angela Markel, 31% for Teresa May and 19% for Donald Trump. High uncommitted responses were recorded for Merkel and May, at 42% and 38% respectively. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said social media platforms should be required to prevent the broadcast of violent material; 49% believed media outlets that have provided platforms for extremist and racist views bore some responsibility for the Christchurch attacks; 42% believed major party politicians in Australia had deiberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment; 40% believed Christchurch was an isolated act rather than being connected to broarder debates; 37% reported regularly hearing racist or Islamaphobic statements.
Questions on the federal budget produced typical responses with respect to budget spending priorities, with health, education and pensions most favoured, although it’s perhaps telling that affordable housing came fourth out of a list of 14. Fifty-eight per cent expected the budget would be good for the well off and 50% believed it would benefit business, but only 19% expected to benefit personally, and 34% thought it would be bad or very bad. Other than that, “ a majority of voters want more spending in health, education and aged pensions”.
Seven (7) pics of Scott Morrison in today’s The West Australian Liberal Newsletter. SEVEN. Oh and the same story about Kerri-Anne Kennerley (with the same pic) on two different pages (7 and 22).
It was once, long-ago, a pretty decent newspaper. Now a dog’s breakfast with an awful, jumbled, lay-out which can’t decide whether it is low-brow tabloid or semi-serious, pun headlines even on serious stories and another set of redundancies on the way while they syndicate the country’s most vile columnists.
Yeah balance, or ‘we uncritically platform hate and racism because we don’t understand our own craft’.
ar
It wasn’t illegal at the time but it was illegal a few weeks after it happened.
@Fulvio Sammit…..PHON’s biggest mistake was to go to another country to try and get finances.
I’m glad Al Jezzera exposed them.
As you walk or drive past any primary school in this country ask yourself this question ……. As a citizen do you want to see our kindergarten kids having to do shooters drills to the tune of twinkle twinkle little star …..?
Hanson can try and explain it away but finally her and her party have been exposed for the charlatans they are.
If Hanson or Barnaby or anyone else thinks they will change our gun laws they have another thing coming.
booleanbach
Bronwyn was on Sky After Dark so the odds of a journo asking why are verrrrrrrrry small. Now nods of agreement on the other hand………………….
At my polling booth, I certain plan to go up to the ON stooge and tell him I’m from the NRA and I’ll give him $100 if they unban semiautomatic weapons and $200 if they let Martin Bryant out.
At my polling booth at our last election (WA State) Phon only had a paid middled aged, presumably failed real estate agent blonde type person there for a bit of the day, she was clearly interested in the pay and not PHON.
It would be interesting if Essential did a poll on who would you preference last PHON or the Greens
Though I can’t believe this is even a thing .
‘fess
Yeah, I am trying not to become a groupie. But he has a lot more going for him than O’Rourke IMHO.
Wallace was respectful and ran a lot of questions at Buttigieg which didnt let him settle and just run the usual prepared lines. This didnt slow Buttigieg at all. He seemed to be much more comfortable riffing on his beliefs and ideas and defending his record. He is across the big issues peeps will hit him with – from his age to health care. He may be young, but far more mature than the child currently running the joint. And if he wins nomination and has to debate Trump; this juxtaposition will be in his favour when Trump gets churlish. Buttigieg will be much better than Rubio in dealing with it.
He seems very good. He would be the perfect VP running mate for Stacey Abrams or Gellibrand.
Or Amy!
The Guardian have given up live blog reporting on Trumps rally? I couldnt watch it either. I have heard of happy clappers but his mob are the angry clappers.
I can’t be a centrist person can it, the Bernie Bros will work for Trump, again, if the dem nominee is a centrist.
Me personal favourite would be Kamala Harris, but the Bernie Bros have already burnt her as a centrist with a dark past.
Buttigieg nailed it by saying the spectrum doesnt make sense anymore. The Dems as a whole have become more progressive – it is now about implementation. Klobucher wants medicare for all – but one step at a time. She wants real efforts undertaken to reduce emissions – but differentiates aspirational themes from immediate real policy.
I suspect there will be a progressive candidate, just probably not a capital P progressive. And if the supporters of Sanders etc dont fully support that candidate then they have more rocks in their heads than the angry clappers at a Trump rally.
Barty through to Miami single’s final:
https://www.sportingnews.com/au/tennis/news/miami-open-ash-barty-final-anett-kontaveit-2019-tennis/18gwazkqgvq7w1174f33iu9nsu
The air traffic control tower at Sydney airport has been evacuated, apparently preventing flights from landing or departing.
Air Services Australia confirmed to Guardian Australia the tower had been evacuated.
Former Greens senator Scott Ludlam tweeted shortly after 11.30am: “flight crew just announced the sydney air traffic control tower has been evacuated”.
Asking for advice now. Discussing the events of the last couple of weeks, after being reduced to tears (both of us) by Yusuf Islams rendition of “Peace Train” at the Christchurch Memorial Service, my daughter asked, “what is the best way to fill in both ballot papers at the election so as to maximize the progressive Parties votes?”. I wasn’t absolutely sure of the answer. She is in Dawson, Christensens electorate,btw.
Clear, simple advice needed. Thanks.
What is telling to me is this dysfunctional government still reliant on those who have announced their retirement from politics at the next election – like, a few weeks away.
But they continue to be the government spokesperson/s.
How bare is the cupboard?
I repeat, the government is dysfunctional
WayOutWest says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 11:19 am
Seven (7) pics of Scott Morrison in today’s The West Australian Liberal Newsletter. SEVEN. Oh and the same story about Kerri-Anne Kennerley (with the same pic) on two different pages (7 and 22).
It was once, long-ago, a pretty decent newspaper. Now a dog’s breakfast with an awful, jumbled, lay-out which can’t decide whether it is low-brow tabloid or semi-serious, pun headlines even on serious stories and another set of redundancies on the way while they syndicate the country’s most vile columnists.
——————————
I lived in WA for the first half of my life and have visited it regularly since I escaped. The West Australian has always been a tory rag. All that has changed is it no longer bothers to try and hide its bias.
So all pollies are selfless supporters of a fairer Australia? ROFL :sob:
Thanks for the Barty post- she is a class act and the real deal…added to her doubles performance a pay day around $1.5 to 2 million for the fortnight, good for her!
‘Diogenes says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 11:25 am
At my polling booth, I certain plan to go up to the ON stooge and tell him I’m from the NRA and I’ll give him $100 if they unban semiautomatic weapons and $200 if they let Martin Bryant out.’
That’ll cost you $300.
Warren Entsch joins the One Nation dissenters!
https://twitter.com/MurrayWatt/status/1111374590998003712
Onebobsworth says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 12:07 pm
Asking for advice now. Discussing the events of the last couple of weeks, after being reduced to tears (both of us) by Yusuf Islams rendition of “Peace Train” at the Christchurch Memorial Service, my daughter asked, “what is the best way to fill in both ballot papers at the election so as to maximize the progressive Parties votes?”. I wasn’t absolutely sure of the answer. She is in Dawson, Christensens electorate,btw.
Clear, simple advice needed. Thanks.
——————————–
A good start would to make Labor and the Greens the first two preferences in whatever order you like. For the rest you really need to wait for the full list of candidates but Christensen and the PHON candidate should be at the bottom unless some one even more crazy nominates. In 2016 Christensen only defeated labor by about 4,000 votes so he is not as safe as his arrogance may imply.
“Or Amy!”
Amy!
#Klobuchar-Brown2020 – a progressive ticket that will deliver actual progress!
You know it makes sense – except for you Nicholas: I know it makes no sense to you as a Sanders-Tulusi ticket is so ‘popular’ (if only with people you approve of, and dam the 100 million Americans who are ‘terrible’ moderate-centrists and whose votes you’d need in sufficient numbers and in the right places to achieve squat).
https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/scott-morrison-shat-himself-at-engadine-maccas-in-1997/
I choose not to believe this rumour however much I want it to be true.
I see the NSW bats are showing their depth and quality against Vic.
WOW,
“It was once, long-ago, a pretty decent newspaper. Now a dog’s breakfast with an awful, jumbled, lay-out which can’t decide whether it is low-brow tabloid or semi-serious, pun headlines even on serious stories and another set of redundancies on the way while they syndicate the country’s most vile columnists.”
______________________
We dogs are much more choosy about our breakfast fare!
“Asking for advice now. Discussing the events of the last couple of weeks, after being reduced to tears (both of us) by Yusuf Islams rendition of “Peace Train” at the Christchurch Memorial Service, my daughter asked, “what is the best way to fill in both ballot papers at the election so as to maximize the progressive Parties votes?”. I wasn’t absolutely sure of the answer. She is in Dawson, Christensens electorate,btw.
Clear, simple advice needed. Thanks.”
Make sure that she puts Labor and the Greens above the LNP, ON and any other RWNJ outfit that may appear on the ballot paper (both in the House of Reps and the Senate). The order that she puts the progressives in is entirely her prerogative although naturally enough I’d advocate a No.1 vote for Labor in both houses.
I can’t comment on the other potential progressive minors as I dont know who exactly is running in Qld: personally I always voted for Sex as No.2 and Science as No.3 in NSW (Greens No.4).
I was stunned by Yusuf’s set today. Left me in tears as well.
How would Abbott collect $1 million for his campaign, given that he is essentially a has-been? Or is this just another bit of phoney boasting so beloved of the tories?
slackboy72 @ #1574 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 12:35 pm
This got a run a couple of nights ago. I think we are better than that. Deleting would be a good idea.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/greens-plan-to-save-world-would-destroy-australia/news-story/8796c312d47f9cf4ac7186b8c300cd50
I don’t know whether I would trust The Australian to report the Greens policies accurately, but there are a couple of policies that were previously discussed extensively on Bludger. The Greens posters were in denial about the consequences of their policies.
The first is that the Greens ARE going to gut the ADF, apparently replacing it with a kumbaya peace pyramid ‘ommm machine’. The general strategic position appears to be to render Australia not worth invading.
The second big policy announcement is that the Greens ARE going to go for the UBI. As noted previously, any reasonable back-of-the-envelope costing for the UBI would not leave anything in the Federal budget for anything else.
Have the doctrinaire revolutionary left extremists have taken full control of the Greens?
“I don’t know whether I would trust The Australian to report the Greens policies accurately”
Ya think? :eyeroll:
Boerwar @ #1582 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 12:44 pm
I thought is was the left extremist doctrinaire revolutionaries this week.
Scottie & the LNP have wedged themselves
Under pressure over the politicisation of race, Scott Morrison must keep the dog whistle in his pocket. Confecting fear around the plight of a group of wretched asylum seekers is no longer tenable.
Indeed, the focus has now shifted on to his willingness to recommend to Australian voters put One Nation ahead of Labor and the Greens in upcoming contests. After appropriating their rhetoric, now he needs to decide whether he is prepared to appropriate their votes as well.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/mar/26/christchurch-changes-the-dynamics-of-the-next-australian-election-irrevocably
The SmearStralian has descended into tabloid farce today, with Graham Lloyd leading with a screeching ‘Greenies will destroy us..’ headline. Even their 20,000 rusted on surbscribers most be thinking, WTF is this crap?
Diogenes @ #1556 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 11:25 am
Video it.
This is from the political editor of the BBC…
Newsnight’s @nicholaswatt has the TV moment of the year. Quoting a cabinet minister, asked why May is pressing ahead with a vote she knows she’ll lose: “Fuck knows. I’m past caring. It’s like the living dead in here.”
KayJay
This got a run a couple of nights ago. I think we are better than that. Deleting would be a good idea.
______________________________
I agree. Pointless and irrelevant rumour.
I heard Pete Buttigieg interviewed on the West Wing Weekly podcast. Really impressive as a person though I haven’t checked out his policy positions. His recent media appearances seem to have propelled him at least for the moment out of the sizeable pool of largely unknown nominees to being regarded as a possible contender, even though he’s unlikely to go the full distance. Identity is a secondary consideration to policy, but its symbolic value isn’t nothing. All things being equal, it’s way past time for a female President. And yes it would also be culturally and historically significant if Pete Buttigieg were elected as first openly gay President.
The Greens would threaten the crony-capitalist order through their weird belief that maximising after-tax income is not the highest purpose in life, that there are more important national priorities than corporate profitability and that maybe taxes should be higher in order to attend to reordered national priorities. The Far Right doesn’t. Hence the attitude of the “Liberals”, Nationals and their media allies in regarding the Greens as a bigger threat to
their interestsAustralia than the Far Right.sprocket_ @ #1587 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 12:56 pm
—
Got about five paragraphs in and realised once again the screeching headline was totally incongruous with the content of fact below. Just another money trumps climate change via a ‘Greenies in Guerilla hit on business” headline. If the readership takes what is written below as gospel they are as shallow as the headline.
zoomster says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 8:50 am
How do preferences received have anything to do with your primary vote?
These are two separate issues.
Of course if you increase your primary vote, Druery becomes less relevant.
So they only made Druery relevant because their primary vote fell.
This, to me, is the issue they need to address.
From CNN:
Though I’m not a member of the Greens and mostly, but not always give them my first preference, if the Smearstralian is screaming about Greenies I’m happy to identify as one. If the Dirty Digger has a problem with you, then you’ve got to be doing something right!
Sprocket
Video of your post
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1111399511392317440
“Got about five paragraphs in and realised once again the screeching headline was totally incongruous with the content of fact below.”
I’ve often noticed this with articles in the Australian and the Daily Rupert. It’s obviously deliberate. Many viewers of the site or the paper editin will only scan the headline and maybe the first para or two.
dave
Remember our bet about whether Trump would be as bad as we expected? I said he wouldn’t be.
I was wrong. And he’s definitely not going to improve in the next two years.
I don’t care who the democrat nominee is as long as they win.
“I don’t know whether I would trust The Australian to report the Greens policies accurately, …”
I don’t know whether I would trust The Australian to report anything accurately, especially with regard to any person, party, organisation or series of events that runs against or contradicts Rupert’s world view.