Newspoll breakdowns and BludgerTrack redux

New state-level numbers for federal voting intention take the edge off for the Coalition in Victoria and Western Australia, but weaken them in (of all places) New South Wales.

If you’re reading this on Tuesday morning, the results of the Essential Research poll should be available at The Guardian, but I’m on Sydney time right now and thus unable to post it overnight like I normally would (UPDATE: See below). What we do have is the latest quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll in The Australian, which aggregate the four polls published so far this year. Some of these results seem a bit quirky this time out – the political class will be looking askance at the finding that the Coalition has recovered three points in Victoria, and that the Greens vote is lower there than that it is in New South Wales and Queensland. Nonetheless, let the record note that poll has Labor’s lead steady at 54-46 in New South Wales, but down from 56-44 to 53-47 in Victoria, 54-46 to 53-47 in Queensland, 53-47 to 51-49 in Western Australia, and 58-42 to 56-44 in South Australia. Labor’s national lead in this period fell to 53-47 from 55-45 in the previous quarter. The Australian has packed the full results into one report, rather than rolling out state and then age, gender and region breakdowns like they sometimes do. Apart from the age breakdowns (not to mention the leadership ratings), you can find the primary vote numbers in the BludgerTrack poll results archive.

With the Newspoll numbers in hand, I have finally done what I would regard as a proper full update of BludgerTrack for the first time since the start of the year. Up to now, I have just been updating the national numbers, leaving the state-level relativities as they were at the end of last year. This is because I have hitherto had only the data provided by Essential Research to work with for the current year, and this was a shallow pool for the smaller states, where there was rather too much noise mixed together with the signal. Now that it’s all in the mix, the national seat projection is unchanged, but this comes from Coalition gains in Victoria and Western Australia (two seats apiece) cancelling out losses in New South Wales and Queensland (also two apiece).

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Essential Research poll records a one-point move back to the Coalition, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. The Guardian’s report notes this may have been assisted by static from the New South Wales state election, since it records an increase in the Coalition primary vote in the state from 39% to 41%. The national primary votes were Coalition 39% (up two), Labor 36% (down two), the Greens 10% (up two) and One Nation 7% (steady).

Other findings related directly or indirectly to the Christchurch attacks, including approval ratings for a range of international leaders which had Jacinda Ardern on 71% favourable, compared with 41% for Scott Morrison, 36% for Angela Markel, 31% for Teresa May and 19% for Donald Trump. High uncommitted responses were recorded for Merkel and May, at 42% and 38% respectively. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said social media platforms should be required to prevent the broadcast of violent material; 49% believed media outlets that have provided platforms for extremist and racist views bore some responsibility for the Christchurch attacks; 42% believed major party politicians in Australia had deiberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment; 40% believed Christchurch was an isolated act rather than being connected to broarder debates; 37% reported regularly hearing racist or Islamaphobic statements.

Questions on the federal budget produced typical responses with respect to budget spending priorities, with health, education and pensions most favoured, although it’s perhaps telling that affordable housing came fourth out of a list of 14. Fifty-eight per cent expected the budget would be good for the well off and 50% believed it would benefit business, but only 19% expected to benefit personally, and 34% thought it would be bad or very bad. Other than that, “ a majority of voters want more spending in health, education and aged pensions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,835 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns and BludgerTrack redux”

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  2. We can now add Warren Entsch to the list of 7 Liberals giving Scomo the bird about putting PHON last along with Tony Abbott, Craig Kelly, Scot Bucholz, Ted O’Brien, Luke Howarth and Ted O’Dowd according to The Australian. Entsch dosen’t have a PHON candidate running against him, yet. I noted yesterday four nats and four libs in QLD have PHON candidate challengers so far. We haven’t heard the last of this yet – every man for himself is fast becoming the order of the day for this sinking ship.

  4. Barney on An Binh Island @ #1603 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 1:25 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Friday, March 29, 2019 at 10:36 am

    jenauthor @ #1510 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 8:46 am

    Watching that memorial I couldn’t help asking why Australia cannot celebrate our Aboriginal heritage like the Kiwis do.

    We have to recognize the massacres first.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/series/the-killing-times

    Surely Hansen is just continuing the national tradition of massacre denial! 🙁

    —

    Post of the day for my money. Well done.

  5. Patriotism is the ultimate refuge of the scoundrel (or some such). Hanson & co are debasing the value of the Australian flag and coat of arms.

    (AAP photo via Nine/Fairfax)

  6. Barney – I am hoping Labor will really move forward with Treaty, Voice from the Heart and proper Reconcilation. That would include acknowledging all the bad stuff from the the past.

    Labor has done it with the Apology. They began the process with the Stolen Generations. They presided over Mabo, the Redfern Statement and of course Whitlam began it with his symbolism of the handful of earth.

    I am truly hoping that the next Labor govt will again restart the momentum (that either reverses or stands still under the conservatives). As a country we need it. Our ability to respect heritage and culture will never be healed and completed so long as we do not do these things.

    I also think we should change the anthem to “we are one” (the Seekers song that ABC now uses), and of course, we need a republic and a flag change.

    Tall order I know. But it needs to be done.

  8. ‘we uncritically platform hate and racism because we don’t understand our own craft’

    Oh they understand alright. They understand that their craft is clickbait. And there are few easier ways of generating those clicks than uncritically providing a platform for hate and racism. When you don’t have sex or actual violence then the hate and racisms are the next best alternative.

  10. Barney

    “We have to recognize the massacres first.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/series/the-killing-times

    I agree. We still like to pretend there was hardly anyone here or that they all contracted smallpox like in the Americas. More often Aboriginals were shot or poisoned. I loved history in school, but when I look back on the version of Australian history I was given, including of my local area, it was incredibly sanitised.

    Years ago I did an anthropology subject at Uni to try to better understand our Aboriginal challenge. I was amazed to learn that the Aboriginal population in Australia at the start of white settlement was estimated at up to 700,000. By Federation it was down to 200,000. Where did they all go? They didn’t emigrate. We really shouldn’t be pandering to the Fraser Annings of the world over this.

  13. Reading a little more about Trumps new vengeance campaign. They are making lists of people to vent anger at. Some of them, like Stephen Colbert, would not have a lot of security.

  14. I heard some of Jacinda Ardern’s speech at the NZ memorial service for Christchurch today on the car radio. It was moving, and she got a standing ovation. I recommend listening to it if you get a chance.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/29/christchurch-attack-thousands-flood-city-as-new-zealand-remembers-victims

    Perhaps there are a few pointers in it for Australia dealing with Aboriginals (and muslim immigrants). Will any leader here step up to the challenge?

  15. jenauthor

    Labor has done it with the Apology. They began the process with the Stolen Generations. They presided over Mabo, the Redfern Statement and of course Whitlam began it with his symbolism of the handful of earth.

    I am truly hoping that the next Labor govt will again restart the momentum (that either reverses or stands still under the conservatives). As a country we need it. Our ability to respect heritage and culture will never be healed and completed so long as we do not do these things.

    I also think we should change the anthem to “we are one” (the Seekers song that ABC now uses), and of course, we need a republic and a flag change.

    Tall order I know. But it needs to be done

    –
    I was disgusted when Scomo made Abbott of all people a special envoy for Indigenous people and he spat out more heroic history diatribe aka Keith Windshuttle et al. Labor will have to re engage with the history wars and speak truth to lies and the deception of the Hanson ilk who claim most of the claims of indigenous genocide are farcical. My Phd research uncovered many episodes of the white out being used heavily in colonial Tasmanian newspapers accounts akin to those in QLD, NT and SA in particular.

  18. Basil Zampilas is a highly promoted ‘star’ of Seven West Media.

    Today he has this to say “Here’s a thought. Could we do without Opposition leaders in Federal and State politics in Australia? There’s no leader of the Opposition in the United States – until election time.”

    I kid you not.

  19. jen, yes, a treaty.

    A treaty, an honest treaty, is a pact between equals.

    There’s a play running at the SOH written for the STC by, and costarring, Nakkiah Lui. It’s very funny, hilarious at times, perhaps a big ragged at some edges, no matter, wherein three non white Australians find a bland blank person to be cloned into a nothing mouth piece who will get elected as a senator by mouthing mindless platitudes, and who will have the balance of power, and block an exclusionist fascist bill.

    The closing moments are passionate calls for a treaty.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5P9cTKXpVY

  20. After a couple of snipes at Jacinda by their in house orcs the GG let their readers have their say. FMD ,somehow Stalin and young Adolph even got a run . 😆

    …………………………….“Joseph Stalin’s two nominations deserve an honorary mention. Adolf Hitler was nominated but that was quickly withdrawn.”

    ………………….. in the end she remains what she has always been — a careerist politician totally focused on the politics of every situation.”

    ……………………….Jacinda ‘all tip, no iceberg’

    https://outline.com/Xz3ukb

  23. poroti, fro myour link…

    Welcome to the column where you provide the content and we collect the cream.

    Cream? Over at The Australian, turds always rise to the top.

  24. Kate @ #1615 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 1:58 pm

    Basil Zampilas is a highly promoted ‘star’ of Seven West Media.

    Today he has this to say “Here’s a thought. Could we do without Opposition leaders in Federal and State politics in Australia? There’s no leader of the Opposition in the United States – until election time.”

    I kid you not.

    I had a very quick look at that. Written by a complete nong. The minority leader would probably be considered the opposition leader. 😇

  25. AR
    ” they all contracted smallpox like in the Americas.

    And not by accident, either.”

    Thanks, I was aware that some of that was deliberate. In Qld Darling Downs local farmers did just as bad, poisoning water holes relied upon by local Aboriginal tribes.

  29. David Crowe asks is Teena McQueen a minor star or a major embrassment?
    I say she was a major disaster.
    She became Federal Vice President defeating Trish Worth from SA 104-100.
    John Howard won the 1998 elections of marginal seat MPs like Trish Worth, Fran Bailey.
    Now she is humiliated by a nobody like McQueen because McQueen is a close factional friend of Abbott.

    https://amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/minor-star-or-major-embarrassment-the-baffling-rise-of-teena-mcqueen-20190328-p518ge.html?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.smh.com.au%2Fpolitics%2Ffederal%2Fminor-star-or-major-embarrassment-the-baffling-rise-of-teena-mcqueen-20190328-p518ge.html

  30. Danny Lim, who was not guilty of any criminal offence for calling Abbott something nasty, is on 91 BTL votes in NSW LC count.

    Maybe he can combine with egg boy and the Hobart Liverpool kisser.

  31. shellbell says:
    Friday, March 29, 2019 at 2:26 pm

    James Pattinson to England if:

    (a) Richardson is unfit; and/or
    (b) Pattinson’s own body does not disintegrate.

    I suppose that’s one way of getting him out of the Senate! 🙂

  32. Ven or others

    Can anyone share a link to Teena McQueen’s background or biography? That level of genius and balanced, reasonable outlook on life must come from somewhere. I have looked on the web and it is like looking for a record of past Liberal promises. Gone.

  33. A lovely glossy colourful political pamphlet appeared in our letter box this morning, Bernadi’s grin on the front with the comforting words “You deserve better”. Inside was ban Sharia law, fight Islamic terrorism, and other “policies” that I associate with PHON. The fight for her primary vote is on. I’ll be watching with interest who else moves into that niche.

  34. Does anyone else think Teena McQueen is maybe trying to shape herself up as the next Pauline Hansen?
    Get expelled from the libs. Self-label as not PC enough for the libs. Cash in on redneck votes. Cushy senate seat here we come.

    Just a thought.

  35. Late Riser

    While Cory does ‘jihad’ Clive is going big on Chinese/foreign interests buying ‘our country’ . Poor Poorlene that is two fertile seams she now has mining competitors in.

  36. If the Democrats nominate a neoliberal centrist (which is everyone in the race so far except Bernie Sanders), it would be a massive blunder and an inexcusable abrogation of responsibility.

    Only Bernie Sanders offers the United States a genuinely appealing and transformative policy agenda that would trounce Trump.

    If you support neoliberal centrists but claim to be concerned about the damage done by Trump, you are one seriously confused person, probably with an unhealthy fixation with identity politics.

  37. Late Riser says:
    Friday, March 29, 2019 at 3:00 pm

    A lovely glossy colourful political pamphlet appeared in our letter box this morning, Bernadi’s grin on the front with the comforting words “You deserve better”. Inside was ban Sharia law, fight Islamic terrorism, and other “policies” that I associate with PHON. The fight for her primary vote is on. I’ll be watching with interest who else moves into that niche.

    Does he suggest banning Canon Law or rabbinic law?

  38. Tones only behind 54 – 46. I was hoping it would be better than that, though it’s hard to see him shifting many votes. People tend to have very clear views about tones.

  39. Socrates @ #1625 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 2:22 pm

    AR
    ” they all contracted smallpox like in the Americas.

    And not by accident, either.”

    Thanks, I was aware that some of that was deliberate. In Qld Darling Downs local farmers did just as bad, poisoning water holes relied upon by local Aboriginal tribes.

    —

    In Tasmania and NSW they gave indigenous people blankets infested with small pox, deliberately.

  40. slackboy72

    She’ll win the hearts of the conservative chaps with her ‘feminism’ 🙂 Bonus , she likes pig shooting.
    .
    .
    Teena McQueen, new vice president of the Liberal Party, has no time for the Liberal Left women complaining of bullying and demanding quotas: “Women always want the spoils of victory, without the fight.”
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/teena-mcqueen-these-liberal-women-lack-fight/news-story/7e92257e75abb8f3ace89d1437a5c5ff

  41. Nicholas @ #1636 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 2:08 pm

    If the Democrats nominate a neoliberal centrist (which is everyone in the race so far except Bernie Sanders), it would be a massive blunder and an inexcusable abrogation of responsibility.

    Not possible. The only responsibility the Democrats have between now and 2020 is getting rid of Trump. Literally everything else is a second-order concern.

  42. Socrates @ #10909 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 2:22 pm

    AR
    ” they all contracted smallpox like in the Americas.

    And not by accident, either.”

    Thanks, I was aware that some of that was deliberate. In Qld Darling Downs local farmers did just as bad, poisoning water holes relied upon by local Aboriginal tribes.

    Soc.
    There were vials of smallpox (variola virus) eschars brought out with the First Fleet – ostensibly to “variolate” against smallpox, since vaccination (with vaccina virus – cowpox, hence the term vaccination) as proposed by Jenner was only tried (in the son of his gardener) in 1796, so the only preventive tool they had was the old Turkish practice of variolation.
    There was a major epidemic of smallpox in the Sydney basin in 1789. This is unlikely to be from infected colonisers given the incubation period for smallpox and the time it took to get from Cape Town, which was the last place where any new infections could be acquired. John Carmody’s theory that it was chickenpox (human alphaherpesvirus 3, better known as varicella zoster virus) from cutaneous outbreaks of shingles, demonstrates that he is a better opera critic than ID/microbiologist.

  43. Nicholas says:
    Friday, March 29, 2019 at 3:08 pm

    If the Democrats nominate a neoliberal centrist (which is everyone in the race so far except Bernie Sanders), it would be a massive blunder and an inexcusable abrogation of responsibility.

    Only Bernie Sanders offers the United States a genuinely appealing and transformative policy agenda that would trounce Trump.

    If you support neoliberal centrists but claim to be concerned about the damage done by Trump, you are one seriously confused person, probably with an unhealthy fixation with identity politics.

    And how would that attract the swinging voters in the middle that decide elections?

  45. Tony Windsor:

    Eric backs Labor …they are worried about the vote going to minors and Independents. twitter.com/skynewsaust/st…

  46. Barney on An Binh Island @ #1637 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 2:08 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Friday, March 29, 2019 at 3:00 pm

    A lovely glossy colourful political pamphlet appeared in our letter box this morning, Bernadi’s grin on the front with the comforting words “You deserve better”. Inside was ban Sharia law, fight Islamic terrorism, and other “policies” that I associate with PHON. The fight for her primary vote is on. I’ll be watching with interest who else moves into that niche.

    Does he suggest banning Canon Law or rabbinic law?

    He has Lyle Shelton on his team.

    The other policies include “Slash red and green tape”, “Keep our borders strong”, “Political correctness must end”, “Support our flag and national symbols”, “Fight political correctness and attacks on Christmas, Easter, Australia Day and ANZAC day”, and “Protect free speech and religious freedom”

    And on the last page

    DON’T RISK THE GREENS CONTROLLING THE SENATE. …The Greens cannot be trusted…thousands of boatpeople lost their lives at sea.

    Charming stuff.

  48. Barney
    “And how would that attract the swinging voters in the middle that decide elections?”

    It wouldn’t. Outside of his base (the hardcore ‘Bernie-or-bust’ types), Sanders is electoral poison.
    Like most Sanders boosters, Nicholas operates under the delusion that most Americans think like him.

  50. I dont think I have seen leadership of a country like I have seen with Jacinda Ardern. Can you imagine the likes of Hanson or Abbotts response to that massacre in NZ if they had been in charge? True leaders always shine when a country is at its lowest point and I hope she leads NZ for many years to come.

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