If you’re reading this on Tuesday morning, the results of the Essential Research poll should be available at The Guardian, but I’m on Sydney time right now and thus unable to post it overnight like I normally would (UPDATE: See below). What we do have is the latest quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll in The Australian, which aggregate the four polls published so far this year. Some of these results seem a bit quirky this time out – the political class will be looking askance at the finding that the Coalition has recovered three points in Victoria, and that the Greens vote is lower there than that it is in New South Wales and Queensland. Nonetheless, let the record note that poll has Labor’s lead steady at 54-46 in New South Wales, but down from 56-44 to 53-47 in Victoria, 54-46 to 53-47 in Queensland, 53-47 to 51-49 in Western Australia, and 58-42 to 56-44 in South Australia. Labor’s national lead in this period fell to 53-47 from 55-45 in the previous quarter. The Australian has packed the full results into one report, rather than rolling out state and then age, gender and region breakdowns like they sometimes do. Apart from the age breakdowns (not to mention the leadership ratings), you can find the primary vote numbers in the BludgerTrack poll results archive.
With the Newspoll numbers in hand, I have finally done what I would regard as a proper full update of BludgerTrack for the first time since the start of the year. Up to now, I have just been updating the national numbers, leaving the state-level relativities as they were at the end of last year. This is because I have hitherto had only the data provided by Essential Research to work with for the current year, and this was a shallow pool for the smaller states, where there was rather too much noise mixed together with the signal. Now that it’s all in the mix, the national seat projection is unchanged, but this comes from Coalition gains in Victoria and Western Australia (two seats apiece) cancelling out losses in New South Wales and Queensland (also two apiece).
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
The Essential Research poll records a one-point move back to the Coalition, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. The Guardian’s report notes this may have been assisted by static from the New South Wales state election, since it records an increase in the Coalition primary vote in the state from 39% to 41%. The national primary votes were Coalition 39% (up two), Labor 36% (down two), the Greens 10% (up two) and One Nation 7% (steady).
Other findings related directly or indirectly to the Christchurch attacks, including approval ratings for a range of international leaders which had Jacinda Ardern on 71% favourable, compared with 41% for Scott Morrison, 36% for Angela Markel, 31% for Teresa May and 19% for Donald Trump. High uncommitted responses were recorded for Merkel and May, at 42% and 38% respectively. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said social media platforms should be required to prevent the broadcast of violent material; 49% believed media outlets that have provided platforms for extremist and racist views bore some responsibility for the Christchurch attacks; 42% believed major party politicians in Australia had deiberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment; 40% believed Christchurch was an isolated act rather than being connected to broarder debates; 37% reported regularly hearing racist or Islamaphobic statements.
Questions on the federal budget produced typical responses with respect to budget spending priorities, with health, education and pensions most favoured, although it’s perhaps telling that affordable housing came fourth out of a list of 14. Fifty-eight per cent expected the budget would be good for the well off and 50% believed it would benefit business, but only 19% expected to benefit personally, and 34% thought it would be bad or very bad. Other than that, “ a majority of voters want more spending in health, education and aged pensions”.
Is Morrison a “Moderate” or a “Conservative”? It depends upon the political exigencies of the day.
Dog’s
I loved the moment when the guy offered them money & then said he was prepared to stump up $100.
It cost $1500 just to get into the dinner….
Ven
Yep, Dubya was the inflection point where dire turned to terminal for them.
I’m not sure Mumble has any evidence of this. It is very white mainstream folklore, you like we aren’t at all racist, nor are we in anyway responsible for taking the land from Aboriginals. Like the Palestinians they must be blamed for the misery and cruelty we inflict on them.
There is in fact a lot more evidence to suggest Morrison, and indeed the national character, is very very deeply racist and Islamophobic, and very willing, nay happy, to torture and kill people who we have international obligations to assist. Not just happy but the right wing has be delighted almost drunk on the joy of politicizing Islamophobia, and indeed the left both here and in the US had indulged quite a little bit as well.
Steve777 @ #1501 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 9:34 am
Morrison’s behaviour over time does not match his rhetoric of today. Naturally, people are trying.to reconcile these points. I agree that Morrison’s words since the Christchurch Massacre have been sincere, if a little clunky. However his wider political problem is that he is perceived as a blustering salesman only interested in taking advantage of the latest opportunity to advance himself personally..
I’m not sure there is a lot of evidence ‘most Australians’ are as upset as Mumble might want us to believe. On the day it happened my work colleague did a bit of googling and went straight for ‘well they have really lax guns laws, it was always going to happen’.
And we led by our very fine media then proceeded to focus on how very very important it was to protect nazis from eggings and incivility.
So Hanson reckons she and her fellow jerks were taken out of context – what drivel, taking a leaf out of the NRA’s book of dirty tricks by going on the offence. And, what beautiful timing for all this to come to the public’s attention: six weeks out from the election. In the absence of PHON preferences in Queensland, FauxMo should allow Bill & Chloe into the Lodge to measure the curtains and to select new furniture to match the decor.
”
poroti says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 8:41 am
It’s all a plot to get buskers out of the city. For ‘security’ reasons.
”
What is all a plot?
Richard Willingham
Verified account
@rwillingham
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Labor’s @KosSamaras on Greens review attacking ALP: “The Greens problems in November were a product of their own mishandling of their own vetting process, which obviously did not adequately identify and deal with misogynistic tendencies in some of their candidates” #Springst
Watching that memorial I couldn’t help asking why Australia cannot celebrate our Aboriginal heritage like the Kiwis do.
I can’t even get close to a conclusion Morrison is sincere, on evidence. We can hope he is, but all the evidence is to the contrary.
Zoomster
That bit was hilarious.
Meanwhile, Ashby got away with his crapola with Slipper and damaging the Gillard govt with the help of the coalition luvvies.
He believes he is a cut above. Good to see the karma bus hitting him and exposing him for the opportunistic creep he is.
Greensborough Growler @ #1509 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 6:46 am
Plus the bullying. Didn’t Alex Bhathal expose how she was treated by her own party only recently?
I read yesterday, on twitter from a guy who while trained as a journo isn’t recognised by mainstream journos as a journo, and he had a link to a statement from the Australian Islamic community in response to the NZ Mosque shooting. I don’t think most of the mainstream media have even reported it.
Just another Golden Oldie for today.
To all those who bullied the Front Bench of the current federal government — and to all those who can remember.
WHO’S SORRY NOW
♫Ah ah uh ♫uh
♪Who’s sorry ♫now?
Who’s ♫ sorry now?
Whose heart is ♪achin’ for breakin’ ♫each vow?
Who’s sad ♫and blue, who’s ♫cryin’ too?
♫Just like I ♪cried over you
♪right to the ♫end, just like a ♪friend
I tried to♫ warn you ♪somehow
You ♫had your ♪ way, now you ♫must pay
I’m ♫glad that you’re ♪sorry now
This is for those who bullied or even thought of bullying the aforementioned Front Bench (occupants).
Can you now see what you have wrought ❓ 🙏
Yes, some Australians are racist. Some Canadians are. Some Kiwis are. It seems to be one of those human nature things.
However, Australia is demonstrably less racist than a huge number of other countries, some of whom don’t even allow migration from other countries.
Surely we can criticise racism and try to lessen its impact without ignoring the fact that, on the whole, Australia manages having a diverse range of cultures and religions quite well?
Australians – particularly the better educated ones – have a long history of labelling Australians as somehow worse than the rest of the world, even when it’s obviously unmerited.
I had the honour (sorry horror) of seeing Hanson and sidekicks on TV this morning in a car servicing reception area that plays Ch 7 seemingly all the time.
They were standing on one of those Parliament House sets with flags and the Australian crest, doubtless to give a fake authenticity to the garbage Hanson was espousing.
How much better it would be to see her saying the same things dressed in prison garb.
Re Morrison and NZ
It struck me that he was genuinely shocked when he first spoke about it. If only because he was not so patently false as usual when he expresses shock, horror and outrage. I recall that Abbott also was quite low key during the Lindt siege, as he realised that this was a real crisis, not the fake bullshit he indulges in.
what really struck me about the ON/NRA doco, was how naive and out of touch with Australian culture Ashby and Dickson were in their belief that all that was required was a bit of money and the balance of power – and somehow our much valued gun laws could all be magically wound back – presumably without so much of a whimper from the Australian public.
I actually thought that Ahsby, the immoral toad that he is, at least had some political nouce.
JenAuthor – New Zealand Maoris have 1 language across the 2 islands. Australian Aboriginals spoke in 250 different languages in 1788. It does increase the complexity of trying to do something similar.
David Crowe’s basic theme, across many of his recent columns, is that BUT for Turnbull being gutless, BUT for Abbott being bent on revenge, BUT for Dutton, BUT for Teena McQueen, and BUT all the rest of the weirdos and entitled nutjobs inhabiting the Liberal Party, BUT for being even worse than Labor at running the Prime Ministerial merry-go-round, they be a pretty impressive outfit.
However, all of these things ARE what makes up the Liberal Party. Crowe in his groveling apologist style is asking his readers to ignore the Liberals true nature in order to elect a fairy tale.
Fair enough. He’s entitled to his opinion. I just wish he wouldn’t style himself as a “journalist”.
Couldn’t Al Jazeera come up with something a bit better after a three year investigation?
Some peeps here have mentioned Pete Buttigieg wrt Democrat candidate for President. I saw him on the Late Show, I wasnt overly impressed yet there was definitely something worthy in his demeanour so I looked him up a little more. He is really good in this interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=y97QknIG-Eo
He is an outsider yet a serious contender. I hope he runs and I hope he can get the funding.
Diogenes @ #1522 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 10:19 am
It reminds me one of those old Crosby/Hope road movies, “The Road to Political Oblivion”.
Would have done better at the box office if Pauline had gone all Dorothy Lamour with the fruit salad hat!
‘The Australian’ is going full bore bash the Greens today, apparently to add a bit of colour to the standard diet of bash Labor.
Dio
Can we assume that the real target of AJ all along was the NRA?
If so, the exposure of the inner workings of the NRA were worth three years of effort.
PHON is bycatch.
zoomster @ #1613 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 9:09 am
Depends on which ‘rest of the world’ you’re comparing against. Comparing against third-world tin-pot dictatorships, banana republics, and theocratic regimes seems like it would mainly just be an exercise in bar-lowering. We don’t want Australia to be like those places, so the fact that they’re brutally oppressive and racist in a way that would just never happen in Australia is neither here nor there.
The valid comparisons are against other first-world Western-style democracies. I’m not sure many of those had state-sanctioned child abduction and official ‘White <Country_Name>’ policies up until the 70s. Or recent documentaries showing that it wasn’t even very hard to find ordinary people who were still willing to defend/excuse those things.
jenauthor @ #1510 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 8:46 am
We have to recognize the massacres first.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/series/the-killing-times
Boerwar @ #1526 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 9:31 am
Yep.
Boerwar @ #1623 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 9:31 am
Yes. There’s no need to assume; the title makes it clear.
a r @ #1530 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 9:39 am
At the start of The Project interview, the Al Jazeera journo told us his aim was to infiltrate the NRA.
Ven
Forgot to add a 🙂 . Although it could be a ‘plot’ by those who do not like buskers 😉
Yeah – agree about the languages but the things we do are always ‘separate’ rather than part of what we do.
“Can we assume that the real target of AJ all along was the NRA?
If so, the exposure of the inner workings of the NRA were worth three years of effort.”
If thats the case, I certainly hope they have a lot more than just some grainy footage of them cheering ON’s pro-gun law ambitions from the sidelines.
Didn’t they basically refuse to get involved in any meaningful way?
Simon² Katich® @ #1523 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 7:23 am
Based on what I’ve seen so far I’m a fan. He’s on Real Time tomorrow so looking forward to seeing more of him.
Yep tha Al Jazeera thing was aimed at the NRA. ON proved to be useful by-products that highlighted the stupidity and sheer greed on ON. Like Mueller’s investigation, peripheral players proved just as corrupt and got attention because of it.
i think if you talk to some of the diverse range of cultures and religions, and listen to the answer, you’ll find we aren’t doing nearly so well as you like to imagine. Ask Oz. Ask Yassmin. Ask the 300 or so Muslims who put out a statement that hasn’t even made it into the media.
Perhaps ask those on Manus and Nauru how we are going with human rights, diversity and multiculturalism.
Was the ON stuff the only noteworthy reporting? The NRA didn’t even give they any money.
Boerwar says:
Just Act 1 of their moldy old play. Act 2 – A vote for labor is a vote for a Greens-Labor cabal being in power.
How bad are the Greens ? Bronwyn ‘Sikorsky’ last night declared the Greens are ‘worse’ ‘far worse’ than One Nation. Very scary.
Diogenes @ #1539 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 9:52 am
My guess is that this was a piece of a greater whole, put together for Australian consumption.
I wonder if ON received, and, more importantly, cashed, the $100 cheque offered to them by the Stetson hat guy?
When given a chance to consider our problems we proceeded to have a national discussion about protecting nazis from egging and incivility and we were on the actual nazis side. It is time to stop pretending we are a good multicultural country with our act together, and you know actually get our act together.
Diogenes @ #1636 Friday, March 29th, 2019 – 9:52 am
That seems akin to asking “was that attempted multi-million dollar drug deal even illegal? The dealer didn’t even sell any drugs in the end”.
It should be noteworthy that they tried to do an illegal thing and failed only because the other side decided they were too crazy to deal with. Particularly in light of the fact that they want people to vote for them so that they can draft laws. It seems a given that people should care whether their lawmakers actually respect the law?
Boerwar says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 10:31 am
Dio
Can we assume that the real target of AJ all along was the NRA?
If so, the exposure of the inner workings of the NRA were worth three years of effort.
PHON is bycatch.
_____________________________________________
The image of a red fish, gleaming and flapping on the deck is quite appropriate BW. I also believe that Al Jazeera May have had a few more reporters in the sting than the one we are seeing. I can’t see how just focusing on our homegrown idiots and their adventures with an organisation as big as the NRA would be a viable focus on the workings of that organisation. Methinks, watch this space.
ON’s biggest mistake was sending Dickson to the US with Ashby.
Total moron.
The PHON-NRA expose is an opportunity for a minor party (SFF or Kat or ??) to pick up some primary votes on the back of the PHON’s clear stupidity. The Nat, Lib, Lab, Grn parties are either jostling for 2nd prefs (Nat, Lib) or making sure they don’t lose any (Lab, Grn).
zoomster says:
Friday, March 29, 2019 at 9:39 am
Dog’s
I loved the moment when the guy offered them money & then said he was prepared to stump up $100.
It cost $1500 just to get into the dinner….
…………………………………………………………………………………
That was a lovely moment, as was Dickson’s gushing response.
But my favorite moment was when Ashby advised the disclosure limits and the Koch representative looked sideways. I read in her face “We do not do disclosed donations. Do we really want to set up our contrived networks to send these nuffnuffs anonymous money?”
Interesting ABC interview with Essential Research on their focus group research about Medivac.. in short interviews saw the negative comments as coming from One Nation rather than the government. This is what forced Scott to change tack… Essential assessment is it’s too late Scott, credibility is damaged.
When all these weird RWNJ types say to a journalist that”The Greens are far worse than One Nation” – does said journalist ever ask “Why?” I have never seen it asked or reported; or even the answer implied or supplied by the ‘journalist’.