If you’re reading this on Tuesday morning, the results of the Essential Research poll should be available at The Guardian, but I’m on Sydney time right now and thus unable to post it overnight like I normally would (UPDATE: See below). What we do have is the latest quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll in The Australian, which aggregate the four polls published so far this year. Some of these results seem a bit quirky this time out – the political class will be looking askance at the finding that the Coalition has recovered three points in Victoria, and that the Greens vote is lower there than that it is in New South Wales and Queensland. Nonetheless, let the record note that poll has Labor’s lead steady at 54-46 in New South Wales, but down from 56-44 to 53-47 in Victoria, 54-46 to 53-47 in Queensland, 53-47 to 51-49 in Western Australia, and 58-42 to 56-44 in South Australia. Labor’s national lead in this period fell to 53-47 from 55-45 in the previous quarter. The Australian has packed the full results into one report, rather than rolling out state and then age, gender and region breakdowns like they sometimes do. Apart from the age breakdowns (not to mention the leadership ratings), you can find the primary vote numbers in the BludgerTrack poll results archive.
With the Newspoll numbers in hand, I have finally done what I would regard as a proper full update of BludgerTrack for the first time since the start of the year. Up to now, I have just been updating the national numbers, leaving the state-level relativities as they were at the end of last year. This is because I have hitherto had only the data provided by Essential Research to work with for the current year, and this was a shallow pool for the smaller states, where there was rather too much noise mixed together with the signal. Now that it’s all in the mix, the national seat projection is unchanged, but this comes from Coalition gains in Victoria and Western Australia (two seats apiece) cancelling out losses in New South Wales and Queensland (also two apiece).
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
The Essential Research poll records a one-point move back to the Coalition, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. The Guardian’s report notes this may have been assisted by static from the New South Wales state election, since it records an increase in the Coalition primary vote in the state from 39% to 41%. The national primary votes were Coalition 39% (up two), Labor 36% (down two), the Greens 10% (up two) and One Nation 7% (steady).
Other findings related directly or indirectly to the Christchurch attacks, including approval ratings for a range of international leaders which had Jacinda Ardern on 71% favourable, compared with 41% for Scott Morrison, 36% for Angela Markel, 31% for Teresa May and 19% for Donald Trump. High uncommitted responses were recorded for Merkel and May, at 42% and 38% respectively. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said social media platforms should be required to prevent the broadcast of violent material; 49% believed media outlets that have provided platforms for extremist and racist views bore some responsibility for the Christchurch attacks; 42% believed major party politicians in Australia had deiberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment; 40% believed Christchurch was an isolated act rather than being connected to broarder debates; 37% reported regularly hearing racist or Islamaphobic statements.
Questions on the federal budget produced typical responses with respect to budget spending priorities, with health, education and pensions most favoured, although it’s perhaps telling that affordable housing came fourth out of a list of 14. Fifty-eight per cent expected the budget would be good for the well off and 50% believed it would benefit business, but only 19% expected to benefit personally, and 34% thought it would be bad or very bad. Other than that, “ a majority of voters want more spending in health, education and aged pensions”.
LOL suddenly she’s not one of theirs.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/she-doesn-t-speak-for-us-liberals-disown-teena-mcqueen-after-q-and-a-appearance-20190326-p517i3.html
Whatever possessed the Liberal Party to let McQueen go on Q and A?
Are they blind?
They know the only way to get to the bottom of this is to get the full report, and summons Mueller and Barr to present to Congress.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/republicans-cheer-democrats-challenge-muellers-findings-on-trump-and-russia/2019/03/25/3b30a74e-4e8d-11e9-8d28-f5149e5a2fda_story.html?utm_term=.506fa2a266f1
Then there is Bastiaan in Victoria, still lurking with intent
The LIberal Party is no longer a liberal party.
But she refused, saying the money she received to appear in her capacity as a party official was too much to relinquish, according to sources familiar with the conversation.
That is delicious. I wonder how much the IPA get or Craig Kelly?
Agree BK.
Also, if she remains as VP, then I would assume it’s seen as tolerance of these kind of views in the Liberal Party.
Latika tells readers who is Teena McQueen. Look at who her backers are!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/she-doesn-t-speak-for-us-liberals-disown-teena-mcqueen-after-q-and-a-appearance-20190326-p517i3.html
Turnbull’s revenge (via Hartcher, the breaking of which was why Laundey had “family problems” with QANDA had to be replaced with the disastrous Bronycopter clone) and the One NRAtion orcs boasting on video. Makes Daley’s footinmouth disease look like mumps (complete with orchitis). The gloves are off.
Have to say disappointed with the Essential Poll results. What is Labor doing, or not doing, to have polling creeping closer? Is it the closer the election, the tighter it gets? While the Government uses taxpayer money in the leadup to calling the election, Labor is not putting a foot wrong. Maybe its becoming somewhat invisible, or maybe its the media doing its best to make it so.
Hopefully , the more exposure the Government gets, the more counterproductive it becomes for them. Tina McQueens antics on Q&A ,as a VP of the Liberal Party, rank up there with some of the worst PR they could get. Contrast with The Project and Arderns thoughtful,compassionate presentation, and you couldn’t have more chalk and cheese.
The revelations about Morrisons machinations during the Muppet Show and PHON sidling up to the NRA are not helpful to the Government, especially in the aftermath of Christchurch,and one wonders what else will come out over the next few weeks. Mind you, I’m sure the Libs will try to counteract with some of their own.
The comment about NSW now wearing the title of ” most redneck state” ,with the SFF and PHON voting support is a little harsh, with Sydney voters returning what is probably a moderate Liberal Government. Some credit given where its due.
Hopefully, Victoria voters will crush the Libs raised hopes come election time. QLD, I believe, will hold the status quo.
Meanwhile, lets move on to the next NewsPoll.
I have no real knowledge or insight into US politics so I have not commented on the ups and downs happening atm. I really do enjoy the posts though !
So, as a outsider, I am wondering would it not be more productive for the Democrats to focus on policy issues instead of spending what seems to be most of their time and energy chasing down the holy grail of bringing down Trump ?
I would think after two plus years of chasing Trump perhaps voter sentiment pro or against Trump would be set in cement. It is not time for the Democrats to get their policy suite moving for the upcoming big game.
Cheers.
Has the time come to re-name NSW “New Queensland”?
It’s scary how like a close clone of dear unlamented Bronny is this McQueen character. Where does the Liberal Party get them from?
Did she arrive in a tax payer funded helicopter?
She is a shining example of the “broad church”.
rhwombat @ #58 Tuesday, March 26th, 2019 – 5:59 am
Simon Cowan was the stand in for Laundy. McQueen was already on the panel.
HoC now voting on “indicative votes” amendment. This is big.
I didn’t join in the guess-a-thon for Essential, but I would have put it slightly down from last time (53-47) if I had, due to it being conducted at the pointy end of a bad week for Labor in the NSW State election. A lot of people in that state would have thought it was in regard to that election, which would have slightly skewed their voting intention towards the Liberals. That won’t be the case when the big game comes to town in a few weeks time.
Its easy to get a distorted picture of what the Democrats are focusing on, if you just go by the media reports over the last two years. In real life, they campaigned on bread & butter issues, and much of the Investigation noise is actually commentators, not politicians.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/15/robert-mueller-trump-midterms-897887
Mueller is everywhere, except the midterms
Campaign ads and debates are mostly avoiding the Russia investigation in favor of other issues important to voters.
10/15/2018 05:04 AM EDT
swamprat
Saw a lol description of her in a NZ paper .She was described as being a ‘parody account’
doyley:
I think Democrats can walk and chew gum at the same time. Yes, its 2020 candidates need to focus on policy (Buttigieg is one who does this very effectively, and is shaping as a very appealing underdog), yet House Democrats can and should be doing the work of ensuring transparency in executive decisions, and holding the WH to account. Something there has been precious little of since Trump was elected president.
ScheMo. No surprise to me.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/he-was-in-it-right-up-to-his-neck-how-scott-morrison-deposed-a-prime-minister-20190312-p513jl.html
May suffers fresh Brexit defeat as MPs opt to take control of indicative votes process by majority of 27
MPs has backed the Letwin amendment by 329 votes to 302 – a majority of 27. That is a much bigger margin of victory than many people were expecting.
So then, new referendum?
doyley
Actually Democrats haven’t been the ones chasing down Trump at all they focussed their energy on winning the midterms which they did in the house. Of course, they have the house intelligence committee etc which has been investigating and doing oversight. As the saying goes, they can walk and chew gum at same time.
The investigation into Trump was actually instigated by people who are Republicans.
Trump was no doubt offered a way out, but as a malignant narcissist, that wont do. So this shit show continues unabated.
Just listening to Trump on ABC24 and his language is just like a small child. “These are bad people who do bad things. They will be looked at.”
Has it become worse or was he always like this?
a r –
Definitely not, at this stage. The indicative voting may not even include a referendum, which is procedural.
Vic:
Did you see Avenatti has been charged with fraud and extortion?
lizzie
Just think of a mobster and how he speaks. Explains how Trump talks
From the Guardian’s coverage of Essential
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/26/coalition-trails-but-labors-vote-softens-slightly-in-nsw-guardian-essential-poll
“The positive movement inside the margin of error in the Coalition’s favour over the past fortnight reflects a softening of Labor’s vote in NSW, which likely reflects the impact of the state poll won by Gladys Berejiklian.”
This effect is why Newspoll didn’t poll this weekend, a state election during the weekend you do the poll skews the result. If you are reading too much into this week’s Essential, you’re doing it wrong. Even the people that did the poll know this. What until the next one and the next Newspoll.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/world/europe/russia-mueller-report-trump.html
Fess
Yes. I have been following Eric Garland on Twitter, who at the time when Avenatti presented himself for Stormy Daniel,exposed him as a bad actor and warned people not to believe he was one of the good guys. One interesting tidbit was that Avenatti was cosy with the Saudi Royal family due to the shared interest of car racing.
We live in interesting times
Damn I was looking forward to Felix Sater testimony
Natasha Bertrand
@NatashaBertrand
New: The House Intel Committee is “working in parallel with other Committees to bring in senior officials from the DOJ, FBI and SCO to ensure that [we are] fully and currently informed about the SCO’s investigation, including all counterintelligence information.” Sater postponed.
Image
8:29 AM · Mar 26, 2019 ·
Meanwhile Scott Morrison has been promising lots of money for Victoria. The latest was yesterday for cancer treatment centres.
They really are doing their best to court the Victorian vote
zoomster@8:50am
If you did it, then thank you. But Teena M looks much worse Sophie M or Bronwyn B. They just had trough in the public purse pie. But this woman really seems to believe what she is saying.
Leroy, confessions and Victoria,
Thank you for your replies.
Like politics everywhere you have to ignore the media noise and dig deep.
Cheers.
Fess
Just checked his Twitter feed. He posted a reminder to his warning way back when
Eric Garland
@ericgarland
·
5h
May 2018. Warned you. These are Mobsters running media Ops with complicit corporations.
Quote Tweet
Eric Garland
@ericgarland
I’m done with #OpStormy and this Avenatti horseshit. That’s not how an attorney acts, and lots of people are being suckered. (link: https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/30/politics/avenatti-cohen-publicity-tour/index.html) cnn.com/2018/05/30/pol…
Show this thread
Has scomo agreed to hand over the with-held infrastructure funds?
Vic:
Avenatti always struck me as a show pony. Best thing was him ruling out running for president.
Confessions @ #63 Tuesday, March 26th, 2019 – 9:11 am
Thanks ‘fess – that’s worse than the scenario I imagined. My point about the weaponised reveal of things previously in the background of the kabuki of ozpol remains.
antonbrucket11
The best thing that could occur for the UK is to revoke Article50 and allow the whole Brexit farce to die on its arse.
Sorry if this has been posted before.
https://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/americas/2019/03/undercover-expose-australia-gun-lobby-190325120818734.html
Fess
Avenatti was never going to run. Despite Trump being worse and having far more skeletons in closet, Avenatti would not get to first base with the democrats
Lizzie
I haven’t followed the NSW state election much, but to see Mark Latham get a spot under the banner of Pauline Hanson, really pissed me off!
It is to our shame that people like her Latham and Anning are in these positions in this day and age.
doyley
Cheers
A recent discovery by a researcher* – may be the answer to a question posed by BK.
Is it possible, could it be that these “rosehip neurons”, are enabling some among us, in what have been labelled (chez KayJay) as imitation humans, to act in defiance of observable information and verifiable facts.
The verdict – there’s more to it. While it may appear to the uninitiated (ordinary – sensible people) that ratbaggery © behaviour is occurring – those benefiting from “rosehip neurons” are blithely meandering around the countryside shouting the traditional we’re the fuckarewe as did their forebears – somewhere the tendency to turn into mice is at play (see reference). This has the benefit where other medical marvels and treatments have been announced that wondrous cures have occurred in mice. Expect a huge cash advance (to a previously unknown researcher – $500M) to return the aforementioned folk to their ab/normal state. That is to say the long awaited mice to weirdo return treatment.
And so it goes – back to mowing.
Please rearrange to suit – I think I got a little entangled in there somewhere – I blame lack of “rosehip neurons”.😇
rhwombat@8:59am
When will you learn that LNP people can talk like right wing White Supremacist but will be potrayed as a normal Australian by the Murdoch media, where as one ALP politician talks with latent racism and the whole ALP is dubbed racist.
How unsurprisement.
Steven Dennis
@StevenTDennis
JUST NOW: McConnell blocks Schumer measure calling for Mueller report to be made public
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Didn’t watch Q&A last night but I have just read the account of Teena McQueen’s performance (thank you BK), especially her snarky remarks aimed at taking down NZ PM Jacinda Ardern a few notches. I think that her attitude is typical of today’s “Liberals”, she’s just clumsier than most who are given a public platform. Jacinda Ardern represents everything that today’s “Liberals” hate.
If the al jazeera/One Nation material had been publicised before the election, would it have affected the result? Did ABC deliberately hold it back for ‘balance’?
KayJay
Are those ‘rosehip neurons’ related to ‘Brain slugs” ?