If you’re reading this on Tuesday morning, the results of the Essential Research poll should be available at The Guardian, but I’m on Sydney time right now and thus unable to post it overnight like I normally would (UPDATE: See below). What we do have is the latest quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll in The Australian, which aggregate the four polls published so far this year. Some of these results seem a bit quirky this time out – the political class will be looking askance at the finding that the Coalition has recovered three points in Victoria, and that the Greens vote is lower there than that it is in New South Wales and Queensland. Nonetheless, let the record note that poll has Labor’s lead steady at 54-46 in New South Wales, but down from 56-44 to 53-47 in Victoria, 54-46 to 53-47 in Queensland, 53-47 to 51-49 in Western Australia, and 58-42 to 56-44 in South Australia. Labor’s national lead in this period fell to 53-47 from 55-45 in the previous quarter. The Australian has packed the full results into one report, rather than rolling out state and then age, gender and region breakdowns like they sometimes do. Apart from the age breakdowns (not to mention the leadership ratings), you can find the primary vote numbers in the BludgerTrack poll results archive.
With the Newspoll numbers in hand, I have finally done what I would regard as a proper full update of BludgerTrack for the first time since the start of the year. Up to now, I have just been updating the national numbers, leaving the state-level relativities as they were at the end of last year. This is because I have hitherto had only the data provided by Essential Research to work with for the current year, and this was a shallow pool for the smaller states, where there was rather too much noise mixed together with the signal. Now that it’s all in the mix, the national seat projection is unchanged, but this comes from Coalition gains in Victoria and Western Australia (two seats apiece) cancelling out losses in New South Wales and Queensland (also two apiece).
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
The Essential Research poll records a one-point move back to the Coalition, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. The Guardian’s report notes this may have been assisted by static from the New South Wales state election, since it records an increase in the Coalition primary vote in the state from 39% to 41%. The national primary votes were Coalition 39% (up two), Labor 36% (down two), the Greens 10% (up two) and One Nation 7% (steady).
Other findings related directly or indirectly to the Christchurch attacks, including approval ratings for a range of international leaders which had Jacinda Ardern on 71% favourable, compared with 41% for Scott Morrison, 36% for Angela Markel, 31% for Teresa May and 19% for Donald Trump. High uncommitted responses were recorded for Merkel and May, at 42% and 38% respectively. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said social media platforms should be required to prevent the broadcast of violent material; 49% believed media outlets that have provided platforms for extremist and racist views bore some responsibility for the Christchurch attacks; 42% believed major party politicians in Australia had deiberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment; 40% believed Christchurch was an isolated act rather than being connected to broarder debates; 37% reported regularly hearing racist or Islamaphobic statements.
Questions on the federal budget produced typical responses with respect to budget spending priorities, with health, education and pensions most favoured, although it’s perhaps telling that affordable housing came fourth out of a list of 14. Fifty-eight per cent expected the budget would be good for the well off and 50% believed it would benefit business, but only 19% expected to benefit personally, and 34% thought it would be bad or very bad. Other than that, “ a majority of voters want more spending in health, education and aged pensions”.
True to my label, herewith the Essential Guessing Results.
PB-Guess: Essential 2019-03-26
Actual: ALP 52 to 48 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mean: ALP 53.3 to 46.7 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 61
CORRECT GUESSES
ALP / LNP
52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
52 / 48 booleanbach
52 / 48 chinda63
52 / 48 Confessions
52 / 48 Davidwh *doubtful
52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
52 / 48 Late Riser
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
52 / 48 MM
52 / 48 Player One
52 / 48 Steve777
52 / 48 sustainable future
ALL GUESSES
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
53 / 47 a r *until the election
53 / 47 Al Pal
53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
54 / 46 BK
52 / 48 booleanbach
54 / 46 briefly
53 / 47 Burgey
52 / 48 chinda63
53 / 47 Clem Attlee
52 / 48 Confessions
55 / 45 d-money
54.7239618 / 45.2760382 Dan Gulberry *essential permanent
52 / 48 Davidwh *doubtful
55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
54 / 46 EB *permanent
54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
55 / 45 Gecko
54 / 46 Granny Anny
53 / 47 Goll
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
53 / 47 John Reidy
57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
53 / 47 klasib
52 / 48 Late Riser
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
55 / 45 martini henry
51.5 / 48.5 Matt
53 / 47 Matt31
53 / 47 max
52 / 48 MM
54 / 46 Mr Ed
51 / 49 Mundo
56 / 44 Peter Stanton
53 / 47 pica
52 / 48 Player One
53 / 47 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question * until the election
53 / 47 Red13
55 / 45 rhwombat *chastened
55 / 45 Scott
53 / 47 SilentMajority
56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
54 / 46 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar *Newspoll March 31
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
53 / 47 steve davis
52 / 48 Steve777
52 / 48 sustainable future
53 / 47 Terminator
53 / 47 Tricot
53 / 47 Victoria
53 / 47 Wayne
53 / 47 Yabba
51 / 49 Zoidlord
Steve777 @ #98 Tuesday, March 26th, 2019 – 8:51 am
She also accused the Greens/Di Natale of making comments that vilified and incited hate/violence against some Sky person during an interview on Sky.
When repeatedly pressed for details about which specific remarks she was referring to, all she ever said was “the comments” followed by a bit of opinion on how awful they were. So awful that she can’t even remember what was actually said, apparently. But damned if she’s not going to feign outrage over it anyways! 🙂
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
·
13m
BREAKING:
@HouseIntel
postpones its public hearing with
@realDonaldTrump
‘s long time business partner, convicted #Russianmobster Felix Sater, to focus on bringing in DOJ officials to testify on Bill Barr’s whitewash of Mueller’s investigation.
House Intel panel postpones interview with Felix Sater to focus on
The House Intelligence Committee has postponed its upcoming public hearing with Felix Sater, a longtime business associate of President Trump, in order to instead focus on bringing in Justice
thehill.com
11
80
184
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
·
51m
After Trump FALSELY claimed that Barr’s whitewash “totally exonerated” him,
@SenateMajLdr
McConnell BLOCKS a resolution to release the FULL #MuellerReport, UNANIMOUSLY passed by the House.
If the #MuellerReport “exonerates” Trump, why not RELEASE IT⁉️
I can’t imagine how anyone could accuse Di Natale of racism. Is that a SkyNews invention?
Vic:
How typical of McConnell still doing Trump’s bidding. As that person says, if the report exonerates Trump why not simply make it public?
Di Natale is racist against white people Doncha Know 😉
lizzie @ #104 Tuesday, March 26th, 2019 – 9:05 am
Well you know, to some people (like that Lib VP lady) opposing racism makes you the same as a racist.
Because racists are delicate flowers who shouldn’t have their feelings hurt by other people calling them out for…choosing to advocate racism. Or something.
‘doyley says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2019 at 9:04 am
I have no real knowledge or insight into US politics so I have not commented on the ups and downs happening atm. I really do enjoy the posts though !
So, as a outsider, I am wondering would it not be more productive for the Democrats to focus on policy issues instead of spending what seems to be most of their time and energy chasing down the holy grail of bringing down Trump ?’
No brainer.
“I can’t imagine how anyone could accuse Di Natale of racism. Is that a SkyNews invention?”
Just the usual projection and misdirection from the Right. They accuse their opponents of what they themselves are doing. We’ve seen more than enough hate and vilification in the pages of The Australian and the Daily Rupert.
✔ poroti ✔
Tuesday, March 26th, 2019 – 9:53 am
Comment #100
I’m so glad that others are keeping up with the research. 🔬
I referer you, for interest, to
https://www.skeptics.com.au/features/bent-spoon/nominations/
of which a quality nominee 2018
and the winner was —
My very good friends – I am pleased to announce that today is 1st April once again – go forth and rejoice. 😍
BW @10:12
“…I am wondering would it not be more productive for the Democrats to focus on policy issues instead of spending what seems to be most of their time and energy chasing down the holy grail of bringing down Trump”
I agree. Trump is in office until January 2021 barring force majeure. The absolute priority is winning the 2020 Presidential election and making gains in the House and Senate. By all means pursue Trump where there is evidence of wrongdoing, but don’t allow it to distract from the main game.
In any case, bringing down Trump gives us President Pence. It could well prove a pyrrhic victory.
poroti
Parodies don’t work for Liberal RWNJobbies. Reality out-parodies parody!
Can we ask Scott Morrison to stop praying for rain in Sydney.
Steve777:
FauxMo, please stop praying for rain in Sydney.
A tightening in Essential and the NSW election result would seem to indicate that the Coalition is on track to snatch victory with a sugar-coated Budget.
Incumbency matters hugely – unless you have a Messiah as opposition leader.
Trump will probably win again as well, for similar reasons.
For Brexit followers…
There is a back story I haven’t looked at in depth but apparently the Royal(?) Mint was preparing to strike a 50p piece with March 29 on it to commemorate Brexit, but then Brexit got delayed. They decided to make a few as collectors items anyway. Demands to melt them down followed. And of course parody happened.
The more I hear from Pete Buttigieg the more I like him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1sJD1maetE
Once again the coalition and their supporters have gone on the backfoot
@The Toorak Toff, I feel we should wait until the noise of the NSW election has past. The NSW State and Australian Federal Liberal parties are very different beasts.
If only we could organize it so all the far right Libs got voted out it would be the perfect defeat. Sigh.
You would have to say that Teena McQueen is definitely a result of the merit approach to candidate & office-holder selection employed by the LNP.
How else to explain her senior role in the party?
Scott Morrison doesn’t remember advocating as Immigration Minister in 2014 the spending $10B to set up gulags for asylum seekers????
There is no way “not remembering” is a plausible answer. It begs the following questions.
Q1 Do you think the reason you don’t remember advocating for this is because probably you didn’t and there are multiple sources that are conspiring to lie against you?
Q2 Do you think the reason you don’t remember is because the idea of spending $10B of taxpayer’s hard earned was just an ill-considered thought bubble of which you have had so many this one could easily escape your mind?
Q3 Do you think the reason you don’t remember is because you are having significant memory problems which is a real health concern for you personally, and Australians as their PM?
Q4. Do you think the reason you answer “don’t remember” is because that is the most politically convenient answer you can give despite it being completely and obviously untrue, unless one of the other questions are answered positively?
There can be little doubt that a positive answer to question 4 is the correct answer. Not remembering is such a hopeless lie and it sits neatly with his hopeless lie answering Waleed Aly that far from seeking to leverage anti-moslem sentiment for political advantage in the 2010 shadow cabinet meeting, he was advocating for ways (as yet neither disclosed nor supported by any action taken or statement made by Morrison since 2010) to address ignorant Aussie Islamic fears.
If Morrison was in 2010 advocating ways to address fears of Islamic migration that did not involve exploiting those fears surely as shadow and then actual Immigration Minister he should have a track-record of good deeds to show for it. Maybe we have all forgotten those.
Or maybe Morrison’s idea of addressing fears of Islamic migration never got any higher than advocating for $10B gulags.
With One Nation going the full NRA on gun laws will Morrison have the balls to put PHON last….?
I bet the coward won’t.
This feels like a misstep. Apple wants to be some sort of “Frankenstein” combo of Amex and Netflix on your phone. For Apple diversity may look like strength but it’s all eggs in the one basket if you’re the consumer.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-26/apple-wants-you-to-read-watch-and-play-their-services/10938788
Re Confessions @10:31
“The more I hear from Pete Buttigieg the more I like him.”
He talks good sense.
Re Windhover @10:38.
No doubt some intrepid journalist will put those questions to the PM.
A NYT journo ‘gets it’.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/opinion/mueller-trump-no-collusion.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Will they apologise I wonder ? Nah.
Maude Lynne @ #13 Tuesday, March 26th, 2019 – 6:54 am
Labor needs to be very careful; allowing people to focus on Morrison as representing the cause of all that we hate about this Gov’t means a change of leader removes the problem.
This is dangerous. It happened with Abbott, and gave Turnbull clear air, for a while, anyway.
Worse, of course, is focusing on negative single issues, as NSW Labor did last election (electricity privatisation) and recently (stadiums).
They need to give people hope for a better future.
The light on the hill.
——
I agree with you Maude to the extent that if you are looking for the “dead cat on the table” Morrison himself is that dead cat. I also think the electorate has been convinced now of Scomo’s “plausible deniability” (lie, lie,lie) character.
I think Shorten has been getting some clean air up until the NZ tragedy struck and rightly got much media attention even to now.
Now is the time for Bill to start spruiking policy that will change people’s lived experience at the kitchen table level, ‘hope for a better future’ as you put it. Today he is talking about his LIVING WAGE policy.
I pay no heed to Essential polling.
Davidwh @ #120 Tuesday, March 26th, 2019 – 10:35 am
I’m with you ……
♫To dream the ♪impossible ♫dream
To ♪fight the unbeatable♫ foe
To ♪bear with ♫unbearable sorrow
To run♫ where the ♪ brave dare not♫ go ….
a r says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2019 at 10:10 am
Well you know, to some people (like that Lib VP lady) opposing racism makes you the same as a racist.
”
You are insulting ladies by calling MsQueen woman a ‘lady’. She is no better than Pauline Hanson
On Essential Report, what I notice is how similar the responses are for most of the spending areas in the question:
Except for these 5.
ALP / LNP / Greens
55% / 39% / 72% Renewable Energy
51% / 32% / 66% Environmental protection
42% / 49% / 21% Anti-terrorism
37% / 47% / 28% Building highways and roads
44% / 27% / 36% Assistance to the unemployed
These look like the political points of difference, or less cynically, the party policy differences. You can order the three groups of voters by the amount they care about each topic. From caring least to caring most this is what I get.
LNP < ALP < Greens Renewable Energy
LNP < ALP < Greens Environmental protection
Greens < ALP < LNP Anti-terrorism
Greens < ALP < LNP Building highways and roads
LNP < Greens < ALP Assistance to the unemployed
If this is an insight into election policies I expect the ALP to highlight Renewable Energy, Environment, and Social Services; the LNP to highlight Terrorism and Infrastructure; and the Greens to highlight Renewable Energy and the Environment. The ALP being in the middle for 4 of the five also supports the idea of its being a party of the centre.
KJ says:
Tuesday, March 26, 2019 at 10:33 am
The Toorak Toff and Mundo hit panic button after NSW state election result. The have very little faith in Australian people.
OK Toorak Toft (re your 10:28 post). That makes sense …
Reality check:
1. comparing nsw state politics now with 2015 results – which were only 15 months before the 2016 federal election.
NSW Labor didn’t lose a seat last Saturday, and the government lost 4 seats.
The 2PP has probably improved for Labor by around 3% since 2015. This correlates to a similar 2PP shift in federal voting intentions since the 2016 federal election.
So Labor’s position in nsw is so ‘disastrous’ that it can only expect to pick up 2-3 seats. Shocking.
I’ve always thought the Queensland position to be pretty fickle and it wouldn’t surprise me if labor gains in the south east are counterbalanced by a lose in Herbert. But that is a worse case outcome. So, again Queensland may only be worth another 2 seats.
Let’s be generous and say that the Libs don’t lose anything in South Australia and pick up a seat in each of Tasmania and Northern Teritory.
That means before we turn to look at WA and Victoria that Labor is at a minimum of plus two on where the pendulum currently has labor on 2016 results. Which, because of the redistribution’s is actually 72 seats, not the 69 seats Labor currently occupies. Add in a net 2 seats (excluding consideration of Victoria and WA) and Labor is on the cusp of government, even on a worst case basis.
Now WA and Victoria have both been in the disastrous catergory for the Liberals for a long time. There seems to be a possible correction according to the latest Newspoll Quaterly figures in those states. Perhaps that is a ‘thing’, but perhaps that shift merely reflects the effects of the summer torpor on punters and the automatic correction that occurs when the liberals numbers have been so bad for so long. However, let’s assume that there is a real shift. That merely means that Labor will hold all its notional gains in Victoria following the redistribution plus another 3 seats and Labor only picks up 2-3 seats in WA.
In other words a ‘worst case’ of around 78-80 seats to Labor. In other words Governement with a working majority.
Now we all know that there is many a slip twix jump and hurdle but the ‘pathway’ to victory for ScoMo seems very very thin: on the one hand he has to convince punters that ‘fun times are here again’ with the projected budget surplus and more tax cuts, yet on the other hand convince punters that there are economy bad times around the corner such that Labor can’t be trusted.
The problems with the ScoMo gambit are three fold. The first relates to the ‘yeah, but nah’ inherent contradiction in its economic messaging.
Secondly, Labor has been preparing itself for an election where the Libs attempt to set the narrative based on tax bribes and an anti labor scare campaign for 5 years now: 2016 was effectively a practice run. It has announced ‘courageous’ policies on tax concessions that mean that it will be hundreds of billions better off than anything the Libs will announce. That means it can match every announcement that the government makes, plus it’s own spending initiatives AND still have a budget bottom line that is better off in every year over the next 10 year forecasts than the government. In truth, what Labor will do is take whatever goodies the government has on offer in the budget but limit most of them to individuals earning under $100K and families under $150K BUT offer those socio-economic groups MORE than what the government has on offer.
The third problem ScoMo has is personal credibility: he is widely seen as a dodgy salesman and unscrupulous operator. With 3 PMs in 4 years the Libs have a wider credibility problem: the same as the last Labor Government times eleventy. Compounding this is the group decision that the CPG seem to have made to stick the knife in because “Malcolm” (can you still hear the long sighing?).
Anyway. I could be wrong about all of that. This time last week I was clearly wrong with what was about to happen in NSW. So, who knows.
Lizzie
I just watched the doco you linked earlier re one nation and the NRA.
Lowlifes is all I can say
anyone accusing the dems of not focusing on bread and butter issues have clearly not been paying attention. The Dems had so much success in the mid-terms precisely because they *DIDN’T* focus on Muller etc, and campaigned on healthcare and such things.
Also, as someone else pointed out, they can and should walk and chew gum at the same time.
TT – re the Messiah…………..I think both Labor and Liberal have tried this approach. It has not been a very successful model for some years now……………………Who was the last one? Rudd, Abbott, Turnbull, Latham? Now we have a seasoned politician versus a cardboard replica of a used car salesman. Morrison will do the Liberals for the time being as he is their stereotypical man…..Come the election, and provided the Nationals can hold it together, a 48% TPP for the LNP will probably come to pass. Over a very long time, rarely does the final tally in Federal elections fall outside the 52-48 range. The killer for Labor is in fact the huge return of seats versus percentage votes for the Nationals – and it is this mob which could well bring the Libs down this time. The actual Lib vote in NSW did not look at that special against that of Labor. Shame the Greens get such good support but as their vote is scattered everywhere and thus they are poorly represented by way of seats vis-a-vis the Nationals.
Just posting this in case anyone wants something else to be depressed about …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/26/global-coal-use-up-by-third-as-greenhouse-gas-emissions-rise
I’ve long since given up on trying to refute the fantasies of some here who think that the renewable power boom is going to kill coal in time to do any good. It isn’t.
The fact is that while renewables are increasing, they are not even keeping pace with new demand, let alone displacing coal. At least not in those countries where it actually matters … i.e. the biggest emitters, which are mostly in Asia.
The article also puts paid to those who think shutting down nuclear is part of the solution …
The news is not great on gas either, BTW (for those here who – bizarrely – accuse me of working for the gas industry). Most of the new gas is coming from fracking, and fracking is a disaster because the fugitive emissions make it barely better than coal.
The upshot is that things are a lot worse than you probably thought, and the pace of our trajectory towards a catastrophic outcome is still increasing 🙁
Exactly big AA: specifically democrats in Congress should do their job of scrutinising Trump closely, vis the way up from muller and also the general shitstorm that is this presidency, while the party’s candidates for President should largely ignore Trump at this stage of the cycle and instead focus on the messaging what they can do for ‘ordinary’ Americans as president that will improve their life.
a r @ #102 Tuesday, March 26th, 2019 – 9:58 am
It’s alright to be a white racist and bigot if you support the right @Rupertsracistright
I don’t know WTF this idea that the LNP government in NSW is ‘moderate’ comes from, but there is nothing moderate about its privatisation agenda, its anti-environmental policies, its targetting of the disadvantaged, and its erosion of public education and TAFE.
Is this an example of the Overington Window moving so far to the right that any government to the left of Trump is considered moderate?
Whatever it is, it’s bloody stupid!
Hi EB @11:07am
Yes, the “Living Wage” is another “light on the hill” that Labor stands for.
Who could argue that even the lowest paid in full time work should not receive enough to live on?
I hope Bill runs with it.
Still on the Essential Report, I am now looking at the statement
The age and sex breakdown of who agrees with surprised me.
Male/Female (61%/66%) is roughly the same.
18-34 / 35-54 / 55+ (55% / 60% / 73%) shows a clear trend towards older people agreeing with the statement more so than younger. You could say about half of the young people agree c.f. 3/4 of old people. That is the reverse of what I expected, though my surprise might say more about me than anything else.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/26/queensland-to-end-private-jails-experiment-after-scathing-report
If only this was the first move in a trend…
Adrian- Too bloody right (and I mean far right).
The NSW Government is in no way moderate- Baird put a cheeky boyish face on the party, and Gladys a female one, but the NSW Government is the most pro-privatization, pro-development, pro-business mates, anti environment (seen the Darling lately), pro road, pro coal government imaginable.
Gladys openly kowtows to Jones. The NRL and their rich mates wanted a new stadium- so NSW gave them 3, and 2 billion to play with.
etc etc
That NYT piece is from David Brooks, a conservative.
The full affect of the privatisation agenda in NSW has yet to fully hit, the next 4 years will start to bear some fruit, it won’t be pretty.
Nicko
And Malcolm calls Gladys a “true liberal”. The farmers are calling her something quite different because she refused to meet them and now she’s won has suddenly discovered the Darling.
lizzie
Gladys is a true Liberal, which is ensure the gravy train never ends for the wealthy, and everyone else can get the scraps.
Lizzie
I can see why the one nation expose is trending
I wonder when episode 2 of the one nation and NRA expose will be available.