BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. Just read that as well GG amazing stuff by that man

    To think those who died were fleeing violence to face this……..we need to stop demonising refugees.

  2. Thanks BK

    I don’t know how you do it.

    Interesting that the Coalition have gone out to 5.00 on Sportsbet in the last few days.

    Looking forward to Ipsos – usually in afternoon?

  3. Interesting to note that, after growing up in Australia, and living here for 25 years, Abdul Azia left 2 years ago for NZ.

  4. simon holmes à court
    ‏@simonahac
    9h9 hours ago

    beware the anning “dead cat” distraction! he’s a nobody with no chance of re-election.

    bigger fish such as @ScottMorrisonMP, @PeterDutton_MP & @PaulineHansonOz — and their media enablers — have so much more to answer for.

    #racism won’t leave parliament when anning goes.

  5. Depending on the outcome of the case, further legislative fixes may be needed. Both the commonwealth and Spence suggested Queensland could remedy any loophole by also banning the use of developer donations, not just their payment or receipt.

    But in the meantime the federal parliament has quietly opened a path for developer donations back into political parties aiming to win elections in Queensland, a fact highlighted by the case to quash the ban entirely given a “hand up” by the commonwealth.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/16/court-challenge-shows-coalitions-changes-open-way-to-developer-donations

  6. If, like me, you have been wondering why Andrew Bolt, and others in the Murdoch stable, have been supporting Pell and running down the judgement against him, then you may find this article by Shane Dowling clears up some questions.

    Unsurpringly, it’s money and power, according to Dowling.

    The article offers supporting evidence covering decades.

    Murdoch is not a Catholic, yet he has given money to the church, and received the Order of St GREGORY in 1998.

    AP reported in 1998: Media mogul Rupert Murdoch joined dozens of prominent Southern California Catholics who were awarded a papal knighthood on Sunday for their contributions to church institutions.

    Cardinal Roger Mahony inducted about 60 people into the Order of St. Gregory the Great – men were installed as Knights of St. Gregory while women were named Dames of St. Gregory, the female equivalent of a knighthood.

    …….

    The pope bestows the honour on those with “unblemished character” who have promoted the interest of society, the Catholic Church and the Vatican.

    The church has however received criticism from some quarters for Murdoch’s inclusion on the honour list.

    More grist for the mills of those who dislike the export many Americans wish we would take back.
    It’s compelling reading.

    https://kangaroocourtofaustralia.com/2019/03/17/rupert-murdoch-the-pope-and-paedophiles-a-marriage-made-in-heaven/

  7. No doubt the obsessed juvenile fuck wit “Nath” will also criticise the NZ pm for her actions post the Christchurch murders – or Guy and his ilk visiting the restaurant of a murdered man or Ad Man from Mad Men in the media “praying” for those murdered and impacted in NZ – wearing his lapel badge of course

    Or perhaps it will criticise all others who contributed to the recovery of people from that catastrophe

    Some people stand up and support

    Others are lay about on a computer screen, opinionated and deluded individuals who give us the likes of the Australian murderer – so obsessed, distanced from society and deluded that their ineptitude and isolation sees them resort to such acts for relevance

    They are dangerous – as events continue to confirm

  8. I don’t approve of political violence whether it is by stupid kids or stupid geriatrics. It is not the age that matters.
    Throwing an egg is political violence.
    A politician punching someone in response is political violence.
    The people who pile in are supporting political violence.
    Political violence is like war: a stupid and destructive way of (not) solving a problem.
    Wars almost never solve the problem they set out to solve.
    Political violence is the same.
    My definition of the problem is that we have had parities deliberately, systematically, persistently and viciously promoting, deepening and the exploiting anti-muslim sentiment.
    The most open perpetrator has been Hanson.
    The Coalition has been onto it for a couple of decades.
    Anning is a unicorn.
    The herd of muslim-baiting political buffalo are being allowed to grandstand about how bad the massacre is and how we should all get together in unity.
    These arseholes are being given a free kick by Anning and the egg-throwing dickhead.

    What would the buffalo have been saying had a muslim walked into a christian church and massacred 47 people?

    Quite a few Bludger posters and the entire MSM are allowing themselves to be gamed.

  9. sprocket_ @ #1553 Saturday, March 16th, 2019 – 9:37 pm

    So Arsehole,Anning is leaving Melbourne to fly back to Brisbane, about to go through security check in – and a fellow passenger tells him exactly what he thinks of him.

    This clip comes with a strong language warning…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/hpstorian/status/1106841718324756482/video/1

    That’s awful.

    Let’s face it though, there are heaps of Annings in our communities. The local bowls club is full of those types.

  10. Possum Comitatus
    ‏ @Pollytics
    10h10 hours ago

    The most important political fulcrum we have had to deal with as a nation in the last decade or even three, is about whether we accept or not, that we, us, our county, owns Brenton Tarrant

  11. You are really off-beam on this one Boerwar. Ignoring a cancer is not the way to cure it, whether it is in your own body or the body of society.

  12. nath

    ‘…the various political studies departments where academics who study that aspect of politics are located.’

    Reminds me of a mate of mine who, having worked in ALP HO in Melbourne for years, decided to turn his experience into a degree and enrolled in a politics course.

    He would sit there in lectures and be told by the lecturer how the ALP operated.

    Sometimes he would approach a lecturer and say wtte of, “No. That’s not what happens. What you’re talking about is exactly what I’m doing at work right now, and it’s nothing like what I’m doing.”

    His most common reaction was to be told he was wrong, although a couple of lecturers were sensible enough to ask him to correct them.

    (My conversation with him was sparked by my frustration with school text books on Australian politics, which contained similar errors about the ALP. I assume they were wrong when it came to other parties, too, but I didn’t have the same level of expertise when it came to them).

    And, of course, sometimes academics err in other ways. A particular favorite of mine was the anthropologist who concluded that the extinction of the mammoths allowed the rise of humanity because the rise of humanity coincided with the extinction of the mammoths.

  13. No doubt the obsessed juvenile f*** wit “Nath”

    a) be nice
    b) it is daytime. please swear in initialism or some such.

  14. antonbruckner11 @ #1719 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 8:53 am

    Possum Comitatus
    ‏ @Pollytics
    10h10 hours ago

    The most important political fulcrum we have had to deal with as a nation in the last decade or even three, is about whether we accept or not, that we, us, our county, owns Brenton Tarrant

    That’s the sad reality.

    Born and bred Aussie… well.. he wasn’t born that way…

  15. Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    1h1 hour ago
    Coming up at 9am on #Insiders, @barriecassidy gets expert analysis on the upcoming #NSWelection from @AntonyGreenABC, @abcsydney’s @brigidglanville & the @australian’s @aclennell. On the couch are @GuardianAus’s @lenoretaylor, @abc730’s @latingle & @GerardHendersen #auspol

    A politician free Insiders?

  16. Senator Anning looks almost impressed when he is called a “Shit C…”, like he appreciates the commitment and effort of his opponent.

  17. antonbruckner11 @ #1715 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 8:53 am

    Possum Comitatus
    ‏ @Pollytics
    10h10 hours ago

    The most important political fulcrum we have had to deal with as a nation in the last decade or even three, is about whether we accept or not, that we, us, our county, owns Brenton Tarrant

    We own him. And yet so despicable has Australia become that if it turns out he is a dual citizen, we will no doubt strip him of his Australian citizenship and pretend we had nothing to do with how he ended up so twisted.

  18. Paul Barratt
    ‏@phbarratt
    3h3 hours ago

    Nation urged to stand up to hate

    Morrison urging us to stand up to hatred and intolerance? He has consistently traded in it, to further his worthless political career. We’ll stand up to it on 18 May, with baseball bats,

  19. lizzie @ #1728 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 9:00 am

    Paul Barratt
    ‏@phbarratt
    3h3 hours ago

    Nation urged to stand up to hate

    Morrison urging us to stand up to hatred and intolerance? He has consistently traded in it, to further his worthless political career. We’ll stand up to it on 18 May, with baseball bats,

    we will indeed !

  20. Watched yesterdays Real Time and it reminded me of how annoying Bill Maher is. His stand up delivery style is offputting but is made up for by some good lines. His comedy segments (new rule and the other one) are very funny, clever and well delivered. However, I was frustrated at how he behaved toward his guests. Clearly he doesnt like them to answer his questions with jokes… Bill does the jokes apparently. He was particularly testy with Jon Tester – who is a most interesting politician with a lot to offer.

    And then he decided to back violence against kids with the only evidence this is OK;
    a) that kids need to know the rules (without the nancy pancy explaining it to them) and
    b)that he grew up with it and turned out OK.
    Well F me. Firstly, he confessed he deliberately avoids children. Right. Maybe that shows he has no idea about (a) and disproves (b)?
    And I can mention plenty of people who grew up in the’ smack ’em often and hard’ era and they certainly didnt turn out OK.

    And while I am at it… I agree with him that Dems should keep going on Fox… but I disagree that it was a bad idea to stop Fox hosting a Dem primary.

  21. This is the NYT article referred to on Insiders. Read it:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/15/technology/facebook-youtube-christchurch-shooting.html

    But we do know that the design of internet platforms can create and reinforce extremist beliefs. Their recommendation algorithms often steer users toward edgier content, a loop that results in more time spent on the app, and more advertising revenue for the company. Their hate speech policies are weakly enforced. And their practices for removing graphic videos — like the ones that circulated on social media for hours after the Christchurch shooting, despite the companies’ attempts to remove them — are inconsistent at best.

  22. WRT Abdul Azia – Our visual media (7, 9 and ABC at least) appears to be ignoring him, so far anyway. Could this be because he is an Afghani “refo” and broadcasting his heroism won’t help the Coalitions cause?

  23. Anyone else watch AOC in the House Oversight Committee (i think) give wobbly Wilbur Ross the nice and easy jabs followed by the knockout roundhouse kick?

    Nice how Cummings backed her up then followed with his own elbow to the throat.

  24. G Henderson, summing up what is wrong with the rw commentary

    Mass murder won’t happen here,Govt shouldn’t have banned milo until he said one thing about nz

  25. The ability to live stream violence is a massive issue which needs to globally addressed immediately. It’s of the highest priority.

  26. Simon² Katich® @ #1744 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 9:17 am

    Anyone else watch AOC in the House Oversight Committee (i think) give wobbly Wilbur Ross the nice and easy jabs followed by the knockout roundhouse kick?

    Nice how Cummings backed her up then followed with his own elbow to the throat.

    Have you got a link for that SK ?

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