Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 46
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  1. For those speculating on the reasons for the hacking of the Parliament House computing network (PCN) its worth noting the PCN is quite separate to all the departmental/port folio networks (that the PM and Ministers use) also available in the building. Also the major parties have their own networks and use these for party and policy matters not the PCN. I was still at the house of reps till 2013 when it was released the Chinese hacked the PCN some time earlier. At that time the PCN was not security rated, I don’t know if this is the still the case.

  2. sprocket_ @ #366 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 12:08 pm

    If it is clear the government has lost control of the House, precedent dictates a visit by Scotty to the GG, who will agree to an election – given where we are in the cycle.

    I tend to doubt he cares about precedent or its dictums. Put it in legislation (or the Constitution), or watch it get ignored.

  5. It would take more than the loss of one vote to constitute a loss of control of the House. Unless there is an amendment to or rejection of appropriation bills, or the speaker is unseated, the Government can soldier on. Repeated losses on the floor might make the Government’s position untenable, but that’s unlikely to happen.

  6. Anthony Green article:
    He has abandoned his calculator because he is unsure of the results in rural areas of NSW. That is bad news for LNP.
    I have a gut feeling that the pollsters are still calculating there polls based on old calculations. Unless there is a Black Swan event before elections, we may see a astonishing (I repeat astonishing) election results in NSW state and Federal election. For Keating people reportedly used base ball bats. In coming elections I cannot imagine what tool they will use.

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/10788786?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2019-02-11%2Fnsw-election-antony-green-abandons-lower-house-calculator%2F10788786

  9. First question to the PM at question time tomorrow:
    “do you have any Lib members hiding in the dark in their office waiting to vote?”

  10. Where is the vision for re election?New policies?Future direction? Completely devoid of anything positive in the entire speech.A true empty headed Pentecostal moron.

  12. Steve Davis@12:50pm
    “Trump says the war against ISIS is won”
    Do you see the similarities between Trump and ISIS
    Both think any publicity is good publicity.
    Yemen and Bahrain are currently destroyed by Saudi Arabia. But since there is no report about that no one thinks much about them.
    So may be giving less publicity to ISIS is a reasonable idea.

  13. If turning every question back to Labor, ScoMo is the bees knees.
    As a candidate for future PM, he’s lower than a snake’s belly.

  15. SKY reporting that the Newspoll figures on policy stances shows that since the government started its campaign against franking credits….support for Labor’s position has improved.

    This is, of course, business as usual for the government.

  16. Grist for the mill on the housing market and potential economic impact:

    Half-year revenue and profits have crashed at one of the country’s old residential developers, AV Jennings, with the company blaming “extreme media coverage” of the housing market, the uncertainty over negative gearing and the credit squeeze by the banks for a horror set of numbers.

    Net profit in the six months ended December 31 plunged to $1.42 million from $15.48 million in the year-earlier period, the 87-year-old developer of land, houses, apartments and townhouses said in a statement to the Australian stock exchange. Before-tax profit dropped to $2.17 million from the year-earlier $22.39 million.

    Revenue dropped to $113.25 million from $185.64 million in the year-earlier half, AV Jennings said. In Victoria, revenue halved to $20.3 million with NSW revenue falling 30 per cent to $59.5 million…

    https://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/av-jennings-says-extreme-media-on-housing-market-fuels-profit-fall-20190211-h1b3bb

  17. booleanbach says:

    First question to the PM at question time tomorrow:
    “do you have any Lib members hiding in the dark in their office waiting to vote?”

    A couple of pics from their practice hiding drill. Dutton scored the highest marks.

    .

  18. Whatever one thinks of Party politics in Australia – and the players in the game – Morrison showed today that he is a pretty effective retail politician. His speech was pointed and astute, but his answers to tough questions would have pleased his Ministers and backbenchers. He wasn’t rattled in any way.
    I still think Shorten will be our next Prime Minister – largely because of the Liberals internal tensions – but it won’t be the landslide that I have assumed to be a certainty in the last few months.
    Newspoll showed that the punters will throw out the mob who ratted on Turnbull. And the mob are increasingly supporting Bills franking credits and negative gearing stand.
    But today showed that Morrison cannot be dismissed as a political amateur.

  26. Qanda has got one of our old pals on tonight…

    Coming Up: Monday, 11 February
    Sarah Henderson, Liberal Member for Corangamite
    Mark Dreyfus, Shadow Attorney-General
    Stephen Mayne, Shareholder activist
    Megan Purcell, Businesswoman
    Zoya Patel, People’s Panellist

  28. The owner of this blog may also not appreciate me calling you a dickhead and an arsehole for purporting to speak on his behalf.

    Nath’s point was well made, and no, I don’t appreciate you calling people dickhead and arsehole.

  29. Look, I tried right? I tried to have a sensible conversation with a Green last night. It was a discussion, the sort of thing that goes down well on this blog.

    It was like trying to run around the opposite way on a carousel.

  32. C@momma

    She reckons that pensioners get enough handouts already and she wants to give the poor old millionaires a helping hand

  33. punters will throw out the mob who ratted on Turnbull!.?

    Why would you support someone who WRECKED the NBN, it will cost $30 Billion to fix IT!.
    He deserved to go for that reason!.

  34. The media really are desperate for a Pauline Hanson victory.

    Before the qld state election, they were insisting that ON would hold balance of power. The won a grand total of 0 seats. Congrats.

    Qld is a much stronger state for racism, and ON have about halved in national polls since then. Why do the media keep up this nonsense?

    Sure, a minority government is likely. By Election Day it will have been a year since a poll pointed to a coalition majority (yes, I know that is a contradiction).

    But the BAP will be held by the Greens, SFF, rural independents, and maybe some independents in the rich part of Sydney? Not ON

  38. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 2:13 pm
    One hopes that there is SOMEONE in shadow cabinet right now arguing for humane policy before politics.

    Even more so for the LNP cabinet!

  39. Bulldust @ #356 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 12:55 pm

    I note that Berryjerrycan is promising self funded retirees $200 rebate on their power bills.
    Vote buying I suppose but most SFR’s don’t vote Labor anyway so what’s the point?

    The name you are looking for is Gladys Berejiklian.

    No good purpose is served by such inane and immature terminology.

  41. William

    Nath’s point was well made, and no, I don’t appreciate you calling people dickhead and arsehole.

    _______________________________

    Am I to assume then that you are happy to have him and Rex as your moral police?

    And Nath’s point was not well made in my case as it was patent to anyone who knew the situation that I was not seriously commenting on Tony Jones’s marriage as it was commonly known (at least I thought it was) that Jones was going to China because Sarah Ferguson was posted there.

  42. William Bowe
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 2:24 pm
    U got a big black one at home GG?
    Nath, you could be suffer to be more consistent in respecting the tone I’m trying to set here.
    _____________________________
    Yes apologies. GG seemed so familiar with the product it led me to lapse.

  44. I’m not why anyone would think losing a vote or several votes in the HoR is like a No Confidence motion. Provided govt can get there budget etc through then the rest matters little except perception.

  48. William Bowe says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 2:46 pm
    TPOF, it’s not terribly grown-up of you to give blowback to a moderator who points out to you that you shouldn’t be calling people “dickhead” and “arsehole”

    __________________________

    nath says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 2:49 pm
    Why do I feel like a smirking little kid hiding behind the teacher?

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