Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. On a serious note, it must frustrate the Coalition when they try to introduce urgency into the equation with Labor and Bill Shorten just plays a straight bat back and says, okay, if it’s that urgent just give us the legislation to look through and we’ll get back to you about it as soon as possible, with amendments if necessary. 🙂

  2. Rex Douglas
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 12:46 pm
    ScoMo spruiking $200,000,000,000 splurge on defence.
    Half of that is wasted on submarines. That money could be spent on transitioning our dirty environmental habits to clean ones.
    _______________________________
    I blame The Hunt for Red October, Crimson Tide and Das Boot. What is it with this country and submarines? It’s just unnecessary and frankly ludicrous that we have this fetish for militarisation.

  3. Even Trump does less warmongering than Morrison nowadays. Trump says the war with ISIS is won,so what is Trump junior going on about.

  4. Interesting to see how little discussion there is from some of the most sanctimonious and regular posters here about influence of donations on the major political parties

    If people are critiquing the major parties for sucking up to corporate interests over community interests, it could be due to there being a clearly documented relationship between corporate donations and policies. As well as a clear disdain from the public for such tawdry and self-serving political processes within the major parties.

    Venal power of political donations and poker machines
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/venal-power-of-political-donations-and-poker-machines-20190209-p50wr0.html

    But because Australia’s political donations laws are so lax, Tasmanian voters did not find out until earlier this month just how much pokies money flowed into the campaign. When the Australian Electoral Commission finally released donations returns, it revealed that the Liberals had a four-to-one dollar advantage over the Labor Party, though in most years the two parties run almost neck and neck in donations.

    Of corporate donations whose source was disclosed (which was only about 25 per cent of the total, because politicians only have to disclose the names of donors who give more than $13,500) more than half came from pokie interests.

    Then on Friday evening came the final victory. White said in an ABC interview that she was abandoning Labor’s stance against pokies.

    James Boyce, a Tasmanian historian who has written broadly on pokies in his state, said he had been told by Tasmanian Labor MPs that pressure on the party was not only brought to bear by pokie interests, but by members of the federal Labor Party, which did not want to antagonise some of the nation’s most powerful lobby groups in an election year.

    The Reverend Tim Costello, from the Alliance for Gambling Reform, has likened the pokies lobby in Australia to the National Rifle Association in America, not just for its sheer power but for the way it deploys that power.

    It not only funds its allies but also the campaigns of opponents of any politician willing to stand up against it. Cashed up by the machines that take so much money from the community for so little effort or business acumen, it can’t help but take political scalps.

    Those scalps become warnings to anyone who would consider crossing it in the future, a point worth understanding as we head into state and federal elections.

  5. Geoff Pearson
    ‏ @GCobber99
    1m1 minute ago

    Pairs cancelled for absolute majority votes
    Things are getting real – the opposition has just put the government on notice that any vote which requires an absolute majority, of 76, Labor will cancel pairs.

  6. I note that Berryjerrycan is promising self funded retirees $200 rebate on their power bills.
    Vote buying I suppose but most SFR’s don’t vote Labor anyway so what’s the point?

  7. So talk now of a May 25 election, being called on April 22 – Easter Monday

    This does mean an extra week of sitting, namely the week beginning 15 April.

    There are several scenarios – here is but one.

    So why would Scotty subject himself to this? Answer is, he has nothing to lose – the Coalition is so far behind any desperado throw of the dice is worth it. A week bashing Bill Shorten using parliamentary privilege regurgitating every skerrick of TURC, dark web lies, hysterical hyperbole – aided and abetted by the media running dogs. Invented scandals – pizzaGate anyone?

    Will it work? Probably nobody is listening or reading the MSM crap – but Scotty and crew are desperate.

  8. Quoll

    The influence of political donations has indeed corrupted our polity.

    I’m supportive of banning political donations in favour of taxpayer funded campaigns.

  9. Henry Belot
    ‏Verified account @Henry_Belot
    7m7 minutes ago

    Oh – Labor cancelling pairs for any vote that requires an absolute majority.
    :large

  12. steve davis

    so what is Trump junior going on about.&lt

    What ever it is there will be e very good chance it is what Adelson and or Netanyahu are "going on about" .

  13. “Oh – Labor cancelling pairs for any vote that requires an absolute majority.”

    And from the letter, very proper of them too. 🙂

    Now, can someone who knows more than me about parliamentary proceedure explain the implication so this for the next two weeks? Burke would not have sent that letter just for the shits and giggles factor. 🙂

  14. imacca

    What it means is there could be Coalition MPs hiding in darkened rooms quietly getting cabin fever 🙂
    —————————————————-
    The Liberal Party paid for backbencher Ann Sudmalis to return to Canberra from New York, where she was on a three-month delegation to the United Nations.

    Few knew Ms Sudmalis was in the country, let alone the building.

    She had flown in under the cover of darkness and locked herself in her parliamentary office, where for hours on end she watched the live feed of the House of Representatives and waited, in case the Coalition needed to use her

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-11/liberal-party-flew-ann-sudmalis-new-york-to-canberra-amid-fears/10784384

  16. Absolute Majority of 76

    Parliament works to set procedures, what is debated and in what order is set in the Notice Paper and Daily Program, under the guidance of Standing Orders. The government controls this.

    An absolute majority can change this set procedure. For example, bringing on a bill languishing on the Notice Paper, moving a motion to refer a Potato to the High Court etc

    If it is clear the government has lost control of the House, precedent dictates a visit by Scotty to the GG, who will agree to an election – given where we are in the cycle.

  20. imacca

    Now, can someone who knows more than me about parliamentary proceedure explain the implication so this for the next two weeks? Burke would not have sent that letter just for the shits and giggles factor.

    ________________________________

    There are a number of procedural votes that require an absolute majority, which is more than half the elected members of the house of representatives. I’m not across what they are, but this is usually irrelevant because the government of the day usually has an absolute majority of members so such resolutions would not get up whether or not absent government members were paired.

    However, this government does not have an absolute majority. It has lost Wentworth to the cross bench and Julia Banks has defected to the cross bench, reducing the maximum number of members to 74. If all the cross benchers and labor voted together (or possibly a defector or two from the government) they could have an absolute majority of 76 – provided all of them are there. If some are paired off, an absolute majority couldn’t be obtainable.

  21. Zinger. Pity Amy did not say who asked it.

    Question:

    The Liberal Party has voted no confidence in its own leadership twice now. Why should the Australian people show confidence in this Government in May?

  22. This will go down well with the Bogan tradies in Sydney’s West…. nowhere else

    Scott Morrison says he’s “pumped as” about his re-election agenda #auspol

  24. Has Scotty run this past focus groups? Not too late!

    Scott Morrison says the Liberal Party has had “three good prime ministers” since 2013 #auspol

  27. Q to Sco: how can you promise voters, hand on heart, here today, that the announcements that you are making and in the upcoming budget, are things that will actually be implemented should your Government be re-elected?

    A: Labor – 2013 – bad government – we know how to run a budget and have a great economy – Labor.

  28. This government never had an absolute majority on its own, because it had to provide a speaker. But the opposition and crossbench combined didn’t have a majority either. Until now.

  29. Scott Morrison says the Liberal Party has had “three good prime ministers” since 2013 #auspol

    😆 So fantastic were they you gave two of them the arse.

  30. Why Morrison is in trouble.

    Here is part of an answer to a question at the press club:

    “I think there’s a great myth that is going around about what happened in 2013. The Labor Party had quite a few prime ministers, that’s true – and they weren’t very good! We’ve had three good ones, I would argue!”

    To which every voter in Australia will ask: “If you’ve had three very good ones, why did you dump two of them?”

  32. Scott Morrison says the Liberal Party has had “three good prime ministers” since 2013 #auspol

    That’s why the Liberal Party itself decided to neck 2 of them. 🙄

  34. Whatever happened to PvO’s confident statement on Insiders that another Liberal would resign from parliament by the end of last week!?!

  37. Probyn was more interested in making sure that if Bill’s emails fall into ScoMo’s hands (via, say, Wikileaks) will he use them in the campaign?

  40. The tone of the questions to Morrison are pretty bad from his POV. Almost challenging his legitimacy and taking nothing he says at face value. Almost the sort of approach the media is meant to take with politicians. Who’d have thought that.

  41. When one if is too many ifs:

    Question:

    On the substantive point and Phil’s question, if Bob Katter votes against the Government on this, does it extinguish the water funding deal?

    Morrison:

    Too many “ifs” in the question so I don’t intend to entertain it.

  45. I couldn’t watch Morrison for more than 5 minutes. He is a joke of a Prime Minister. His public speaking skills are a disgrace. I felt as if I was being addressed by the President of the local football club.

  50. Murphy
    To be direct, a lot of Australian voters think that politicians tell lies.

    They stand at podiums like the one you’re standing at and they tell lies.

    Do you accept any responsibility, as Prime Minister, for the state of the discourse?

    In a word – no.
    But what I am doing is – they do not know what they’re playing with. They have no idea of the consequences of what they are playing with. And they will unleash a world of woe again. How do I know? I’ve seen it before. (Mentions “bodies piling up”.) And I never, ever want to see it again.

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