After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.
One nation vote keeps slipping as previously disenchanted Libs slip back to the Bogan PM? That is good news for the Libs, and BAD news if it means One Nation voters are now mostly Lab-leaners or anti-establishment voters.
On Pyne:
‘He cried all the way home to Adelaide the night after Aslan was slain.’
I realise this is the reporter – well, I assume it is – but wtf?
I assume if he’d be reading the book he’d already have been home.
And where was he that ‘all the way home to Adelaide’ is worth commenting on? Obviously not the local cinema.
So did Pyne see Aslan die as an adult, and we’re talking the flight back from Canberra?
When did Aslan die?
‘Some colleagues call him Machiavellian.’
But hey, as a hard hitting cynical journalist, I’m now going to take everything he tells me at face value and use it as the basis of my article
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/christopher-pyne-the-coalition-leadership-group-s-sole-survivor-20190210-p50wt5.html
(It’s a strangely put together article – he quotes other people’s opinion of Pyne but he doesn’t really seem to integrate into his assessment….He just throws quotes into the article without really trying to analyse them).
Christopher Pyne throws Peter Dutton under the bus in order to sure up his own personal electoral position. Apparently, A man who has been a Minister for so many years is somehow a different sort of Liberal to Dutton.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/christopher-pyne-delivers-damning-verdict-on-the-state-of-australian-politics-20190210-p50wt2.html
For those who don’t understand dividend imputation – Peter Martin’s Conversation piece (linked by BK) explains it in simple terms.
Do you reckon Pyne wants to be Opposition Leader?
Yes it was an odd article on Pyne no doubt. He should be LOTO after the election, unless he thinks wait a year and let Dutton absorb the hits, like Brendan Nelson.
I don’t think that ‘presenters’ know enough detail to contradict lies. This goes for every channel/media outlet.
Whiny Pyney as OL would be truly comical – a fitting ‘end-of-the-line’ for this govt.
No surprises given she hinted at this during the week.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-amy-klobuchar-touting-herself-as-a-bridge-builder-announces-her-democratic-presidential-bid/2019/02/10/4d9c39de-152b-11e9-803c-4ef28312c8b9_story.html?utm_term=.4a4feefafe0c
@C@tmomma
Agree with you, C@t. I don’t believe that the campaign against proposals for negative gearing and dividend taxation can even remotely save the election for the Coalition. There is a perceptible change out there. All our friends from the BBs,without exception, believe it is time for a change. The issues are worries about our kids/grandkids futures, the environment and a fairer society. A few were solid Liberal supporters and quite a few of the others have doubts about Shorten. But those issues are clearly subordinate to those issues about family, the future and a fairer society. Personally, I believe the fabricated campaign against the taxation changes has failed because it focussed on definitely wealthier retirees in Melbourne and Sydney mostly. The proposed changes are going to affect only a small section of of our age group and they are grandfathered anyway.
I don’t claim to speak for all my age group, but I don’t believe they as a voting mass are going to put tax changes ahead of their other concerns.
Where the Cons will hold votes are in conservative voters like many of the 70+ , amongst the 40 somethings and in small business.
I don’t think they can take our age group for granted anymore. The 60s and 70s were formative years for us.
Pyne+Bishop, the Dream Team in Opposition.
“Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota announced Sunday that she will run for president in 2020, putting a pragmatic Midwesterner into the burgeoning field of Democratic candidates.”
Hooray! Madam President.
Morning all
C@t
I hadn’t realised your birthday was a milestone one.
Hearty congratulations again!
Agree Lizzie.
Richard Marles is my pick for the job.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/house-intelligence-chairman-voices-concern-that-muellers-scrutiny-of-trumps-finances-isnt-adequate/2019/02/10/267de566-2d5c-11e9-8ad3-9a5b113ecd3c_story.html?utm_term=.bacec9ba1163
Vic,
Don’t remind me! 😆
Bevan Shields
@BevanShields
Preferred PM is a pretty silly measure IMO. But for what it’s worth, while Scott Morrison is doing well as preferred PM over Bill Shorten, his numbers are not quite as strong as Malcolm Turnbull’s. The moment Turnbull was rolled, Shorten’s rating leapt #auspol #newspoll
As I mentioned last night, the liberals are already airing campaign ads attacking Shorten and Labor.
Coupled with Clive Palmer ones accusing Shorten and Labor of selling out the country to China. As well as Shortens taxes, whatever that means.
Labor so far are not firing back from what I have gleaned
C@t
Something to be proud of. Living is hard work. Lol!
From BK’s links …
There is an ecological catastrophe heading our way that both deadlier than global warming, and approaching faster …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/10/plummeting-insect-numbers-threaten-collapse-of-nature
The danger of this cannot be overstated. if the insects die, so do we.
Meanwhile, my favourite barometer of how the FIBS really think they are travelling [the Chris Kenny screechometer] hit a year high today.. 8.5 out of 10.
Mr Kenny of the Smearstralian children’s wing tweeted that the latest NEWSPOLL “is a Get Up poll”.
Forget saving the women and children, it’s every MAN for himself.
Haven’t had a chance to catch up on the article about Pyne damning the state of Australian politics, but I would agree that the state of Australian politics is pretty woeful. It is no longer possible to have a rational, let alone a constructive discussion on a number of subject, including Climate Change, Security and asylum seekers. Disinformation, half-truths, outright lies, personal abuse, racist dogwhistling and smears abound. Pyne’s party, the “Liberals”, plus their supporters in business and the media, are pretty much 100% responsible for this state of affairs. Pyne himself is a big part of the problem.
Victoria @ #168 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 8:55 am
Palmer has no credibility and is not having much impact despite the millions he’s spending to annoy us all. Why would Labor respond to someone who is unlikely to have any influence on the coming election. The great thing about Labor to date is that they are not reacting to every lame brain comment or event but showing themselves to be steady and reliable. My feeling is the voters are looking for a measured alternative to the shambles running the show at the moment.
For all the stuff about boats and franking credits I still maintain that it will not be competing policy or ‘strengths’ that will win for Labor. It’s the palpable lack of cohesion and incompetence in the Government that will do it.
After decades of following politics my observation is that the middle ground voters, who typically are not tragics and not across details but who will decide the outcome of elections in marginal seats, are only interested in which side will be the least incompetent.
The hip pocket nerve matters, which is why the undeserved reputation of the Liberals as better money managers has kept them in power at times when they deserved to be tossed out. But there is enough ‘wisdom’ out there in the middle ground voters to know that a major political party that is internally focussed, has major infighting and can’t get things right cannot handle money well either.
I for one am happy the return of Parliament means we get the return of The Guardian Live Blog, ie we get to see and hear more from Amy Remeikis.
Fess
I am now fascinated with the whole Bezos/national inquirer/saudi/khassoghi nexus.
It is being discussed that the Saudi prince whilst recently having done successful business arrangements with Bezos and Amazon, was upset that Bezos Washington Post were going in hard on the murder of Khassoghi. And the Saudis having financed the National inquirer as well, they have decided to do a hit job on Bezos as payback.
But what is interesting to me is that the national Inquirer threatened Bezos to stop investigating how they got the kompromat in the first instance.
Fancy telling the richest man on earth to do this. and in fact if it is the Saudis as suggested, it is Bezos who could lose the lucrative Amazon deal in the AUE.
Where does this rabbit hole lead?
C@tmomma says:
Monday, February 11, 2019 at 8:53 am
Vic,
Don’t remind me!
—————–
The number of years lived is not what matters Cat. What matters is what you have done with those years. I suspect that you have put them to good use.
An illustration of evertthing that is both inevitable and wrong with the profiteerisation of public services!
On Clive Palmer,
Mackellar and Warringah have all recieved mail from him whinging about China purchasing the port of Darwin and warning about security risks. It appears to have gone to every house.
GG
Not expecting Labor to give Palmer any credence, but if the fiberals are already doing attack ads as well as the usual govt advertising etc., Labor dont have much time to counter this.
Andrew_Earlwood
“Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota announced Sunday that she will run for president in 2020, putting a pragmatic Midwesterner into the burgeoning field of Democratic candidates.”
The announcement I’ve been waiting for. This is the ‘end of the beginning’.
IoM says:
Monday, February 11, 2019 at 9:04 am
I for one am happy the return of Parliament means we get the return of The Guardian Live Blog, ie we get to see and hear more from Amy Remeikis.
________
Yes indeed!
The Liberals don’t have to do many paid attack ads, given their contra deal with Murdoch outlets
Victoria @ #180 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 9:06 am
Nobody is listening! Just check out this latest Newspoll. Lot’s of windbaggery, fury and stunts by the Libs. What did they get? Absolutely, nothing!
Is Sky only available to LNP? 😀
From the Guardian blog:
Scott Morrison and the Coalition though are only ramping up the political attacks – and speaking to Radio National this morning, Anthony Albanese was asked if Labor would “hold fast on this”.
What we’ve got to do here is take a bit of a step back from the government’s rather hysterical rhetoric and think about what this bill is about and why Kerryn Phelps has brought it forward. This is about whether people who we have responsibility for, who we’re to look after, if they’re sick and need medical care, whether they should get access to that? Our view is yes.
I think that the Australian people understand that and their answer to that is yes as well. And what the government has done on this legislation, frankly, is not tell the truth. Because the legislation, yes, says that two doctors may make a recommendation, but that’s subject to ministerial approval.
The minister can then refer it to a panel which includes people who the minister himself, Mr Dutton, has appointed to that point. And they will make a final determination, except for, of course, the minister also has discretion on national security grounds.
Yesterday, Shayne Neumann gave comment on the bill, saying this in a statement:
Labor has always had two clear objectives – making sure sick people can get medical care, and making sure the minister has final discretion over medical transfers.
Labor has great respect for our national security agencies and we’ve always worked cooperatively with them. While the Liberals leak national security information, we listen to it.
The Liberals have sunk to a new low by threatening to let the boats start again. They are walking, talking billboards for the people smugglers and they should be ashamed of themselves.
Labor will never let the people smugglers back into business.
So is there a compromise?
Albanese:
We have said that and we’re prepared to compromise across the parliament. This should not be a partisan issue. But this is a government that doesn’t look for outcomes but looks for arguments. That’s one of the reasons why it is in the state that it is. It doesn’t look for solutions. It has responsibility and it knows full well that almost 1,000 people have already been transferred to Australia. And the provisions in which they need medical assistance so what this is attempting to do …
There’s an argument that the ministerial discretion is there because it’s the minister who appoints the panel that will make the determination and the minister still has, under this legislation that’s proposed, discretion over national security grounds. So if we need to tweak the legislation, then by all means, we should be able to do that in order to get an outcome. But I think that what Dr Phelps, in discussions that I had with her last year was very clear about, was that she was about outcomes. So if we need to tweak the legislation, by all means, let’s have those discussions.”
____________________________________
My reading is that Labor is prepared to compromise significantly, provided it can be seen as still advancing the health of those left on Manus and Nauru. However, the Government’s ramping up of the rhetoric means that Labor will support the essence of the Phelps bill because the government refuses to move. If the government does move, Labor claims a win for the detainees. If it doesn’t Labor has support from the cross-benchers to argue the humanitarian case strongly.
Vic:
And don’t forget Lauren Sanchez’s brother who is a big time fan of Trump and Roger Stone. Just adds further to the political intrigue surrounding the whole affair.
I note that Pecker’s lawyer has laughingly said that what the NE was doing was journalism not blackmail. Yeah right. How is it journalism when you have photos you think are newsworthy but you tell Bezos you won’t publish them if he gives you something you want?
Given Pyne’s performance on insiders I am not sure Pyne should be writing articles damning the state of Australian politics. Perhaps we watched a repeat and though about how he came across.
It’s an interesting state of affairs when the Demtel man on Canberra’s redneck radio 2CC discusses the Newspoll with Malcolm Farr but the ABC 7.45 news appears not to have heard of it.
Of course the ABC news was aware of Morrison’s speech today where he will apparently say the LNP are the only ones able to protect us from every threat in the known universe.
Fess
Well the connection of Lauren Sanchez is another interesting aspect to this whole Bezos thing.
From what was reported her husbands business is involved in producing films which Bezos was investing in as well as the Saudis.
GG
Labor have to make their case.
I am confident they will win but it wont be a comfortable one if they dont start showing their hand more emphatically
“Steve777 says:
Monday, February 11, 2019 at 9:01 am
Haven’t had a chance to catch up on the article about Pyne damning the state of Australian politics, but I would agree that the state of Australian politics is pretty woeful. It is no longer possible to have a rational, let alone a constructive discussion on a number of subject, including Climate Change, Security and asylum seekers. Disinformation, half-truths, outright lies, personal abuse, racist dogwhistling and smears abound. Pyne’s party, the “Liberals”, plus their supporters in business and the media, are pretty much 100% responsible for this state of affairs. Pyne himself is a big part of the problem.”
Pyne is a pain, but he’s not an Abbott or Abetz! He did support the republic and the SSM referendums.
But, anyway, his comments can only produce more fractures within the COALition, so … all good.
Since the govt has a nice little war chest salted away, I think that ScoMo’s plan is to drop largesse into every area of complaint that hitherto they have ignored or taken funds from, to try to buy back our love and support. Hence the ‘gift’ to Aged Care. This is going to be expensive! Reality is whether people will believe it would last beyond the election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-11/scott-morrisons-friend-hired-by-french-during-submarine-talks/10797920
The ramped up security rhetoric from the LNP won’t work this time..
1. They say don’t try to win the last war. They are trying to re-run the 2001 election, and time has moved on.
2. Lived experience trumps spin every time. We live in practically the safest country in the world (despite African gang rubbish). It is hard to whip people into a fear of foreigners rage when in daily life they seem to pose no real threat.
3. In lists of peoples concerns, security is way down the list, way below climate change.
4. People are suffering in the hip pocket; stagnant wages, out of control price gouging and grotesque wealth accumulation. This is THE issue of today.
5. The LNP going on and on about security just makes them seem more out of touch.
A good read. Runs through everyone, from those who have formally announced a run, to those likely and unlikely to run.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/us/politics/2020-presidential-candidates.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Not only do we get Amy Remeikis and her well written & straight down the line reporting, but, we will get loads of Shouty Scott in all his glory – I suspect the polls will diverge again once the electorate get hours & hours of Shouty Scott in their face.
Thanks again BK for your excellent Dawn Patrol.
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Phil Coorey saying the election is about banks and boats in the AFR today.
No mate, it’s about flat wages. If people don’t think they are getting ahead or that they can’t get ahead, then that’s all that matters. Everything else is secondary to that.