After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.
Thinking of the refugee bill and the coalition threat to strike it down..
could the bill still be passed by the parliament and then it would potentially be struck down?
Thinking of the optics here of the govt losing a vote, regardless of whether it is struck down later or not.
C@t
I read your posts and have always been interested in your opinion.
Please stick around till the election, just don’t answer any of the baits.
Yes yes yes. Election Now!!!!!!
What the hell happened after I fell asleep waiting for Question Time?
I just woke up to Paul Bongiorno claiming the gov’t has set itself up for a defacto no confidence vote and it is all Labor’s fault.
Thank you, Mike Hilliard, lizzie, Victoria, Question, frednk, The Silver Bodgie, Andrew-Earlwood, Late Riser, phoenixRED, davidwh, and Rex Douglas!?! 😯
nath and poroti can go jump in the lake holding hands. Meant in the nicest possible way of course because it is such a hot day. 😉
Anyway, I also said to Mr Bowe that I would probably take a break of about a week, so I may see how I go with that self-imposed sabbatical. Also, I will add it is possible for me to be a nice. I may have to try very hard, but it is possible.
One final comment, great to hear Anne Twomey say that if the Medivac Bill passes the Lower House, that will be a de facto vote of No Confidence because it involves a Money Bill defeat. Scott Morrison’s foot meet implement in hand firing a hole into it!
Seems like, at the end of the day the Coalition’s hand-picked Solicitor General has aided them in another too-smart-by-half move.
At this points ScumMo has tried everything to delay his defeat. That appears to include pressuring public servants into saying what he wants. If he thought the SG advice was a knock down winner, why didn’t he bring it up before christmas? Its because it is weak and equivocal.
There will be an election called immediately if the House of reps pass the bill
The pressure in on phelps and the other independents who claim they support this bill , whether they truely do or not
If they are serious in this bill , they would bring it on , if they don’t are they scared
The pro coalition media and libs/nats will attack the independents on reneging in their support of the government
C@t – what Ed said above!
Best wishes Cat, I will miss you.
psyclaw
I didn’t have 3 points. (And I was reporting on what SKY was saying).
—-
SKY news now reporting that, by defining it as a money bill, if it passes the HoR that would show the government has lost control of the finances, which is automatically a vote of no confidence.
Burgey,
I don’t think in this case a lost vote could be considered a vote of no confidence. It’s clear at least some of those voting for the bill are doing so on the bill’s merits alone. It’s not like the House amending the budget by one dollar (or one pound, as in the last time it happened) as a clear signal for the government to go.
Sorry my last post is hoping Twomey is correct.
I don’t mind if ScoMo keeps fighting. He won’t win in the end.
I fondly recall hearing on TV the line, “You’re a pretty sharp lad. Be careful you don’t cut yourself”. Seems almost appropriate at the moment.
So scomo and porter have loaded up both barrels and blown off both their feet.
Nice work boys.
Thank you for all your kind wishes, peeps.
I include poroti in that, assuming his effort was tongue in cheek.
Is this live or repeat on News 24.
Guardian
As Anne Twomey, one of the nation’s best constitutional experts, told Sky:
“…If the bill actually gets passed against the wishes of the government, that would be an indication that the government has lost control over the finances of the country.
“Now that is critical, in terms of confidence in loss of government.
“…Back in 1941, the Fadden government fell when its budget was reduced by one count. It just needs to be a nominal showing of the fact that the government has lost control of the finances.
“So on the one hand, raising this may cause the House to decide, well, in the circumstances, we won’t pass it in this form and so [doesn’t] proceed, on the other hand, if it fails on this point, it is actually putting itself in a more vulnerable position in regards to the issue of confidence.”
C@t
If a break helps, do it. But the very easiest thing to do is not get caught up with posts that frustrate you.
…the trouble with it being a money bill is that various indies have said they won’t vote to block supply or support a vote of no confidence. If the government pitches to them that this is what they’re doing, they may refuse to support the bill.
I don’t think it matters much what SKY says. It will be beamed into all Liberal offices, but that is pretty much why they are in this mess.
The opition would still exist for the GG to tell the government to test their support on the floor of the house. A pseduo vote of no confidence is only a vote of confidence if the GG sees it as that.
Its live.
Government too clever by half.
Motion to decide numbers happening now.
ABC seems to be hours behind. Sheesh!
Chromecast device. Plug Chromecast into your TV, then connect the USB power cable to your Chromecast. …
______
PeeBee
The Dongle can be powered from 240V converted to 12V DC . The package I bought had a such power supply included.
The Motion is on how the House treats the Bill.
The rules about losing a vote on a money bill all depend on convention and precedent. Morrison could choose to treat a loss on this bill as a loss of confidence and visit the GG to hand over the reins, but what happens if he doesn’t? Nothing, that’s what. And nor should it, because it’s obvious that at least a couple of the crossbenchers don’t intend the bill to be a test of confidence, and would back the government on any true confidence motion.
Bottom line: Don’t get your hopes up.
Smith just hands the Constitutional issue over to the House. (I was wrong earlier).
Porter immediately moved something.
Not sure what.
Speaking to his motion.
Argues that the Senate amendment is, in effect, a money bill.
Blames Labor and the Greens for the money bill mess and the national security implications mess.
Good to see the frown On Dutton’s face.
AG now trying a last ditched effort trying to “NATIONAL SECURITY” is at stake.
Surely the concept of the government losing the right to govern because a money Bill is defeated means that the Bill is voted down. If a money Bill is passed despite the government wanting the Bill to be defeated, so what? A government initiative has been funded. The business of government can continue. It is odd for a government to not want to fund its own activity but if the funding is authorized by the Parliament nevertheless, then it should all be good.
C@tmomma says: Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 4:58 pm
Anyway, I also said to Mr Bowe that I would probably take a break of about a week, so I may see how I go with that self-imposed sabbatical.
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Have a little break, C@tmomma – I admire and respect your ‘down in the trenches’ support of my Labor Party of political choice ….. its people like you who do the hard yards to victory in the polling booths and hopefully we will all see YOU and the Labor Party back in the winners circle very soon …
C@t
As Victoria says, take a break by all means, but do come back.
I’m sure you wouldn’t want to miss out on all the popcorn coming!
For the record: I expect the bill to pass. I don’t expect an early election. I do expect a whole lot of spectacular tantrums to be thrown by the government.
Christian Porter sounds like he wants to give the whole of the Labor party, but particularly Shorten, a jolly good spanking.
If the government can reasonably argue on the back of advice from the Solicitor-General that a Bill as passed by both Houses is unconstitutional, that would seem in turn to provide plausible grounds for the government to advise the Governor-General to refuse to give Royal Assent to the Bill. At that point, the opposition would have several options. They could try to challenge in the High Court the right of the GG to refuse Royal Assent (unlikely to succeed). Or they could go back into the House with a no-confidence motion to bring on an election.
On the issue which has been discussed here of defeat on a money bill amounting to a loss of confidence, my memory of reading Dicey on the subject long ago is that governments tend to resign when they lose a vote which they deem to be one of “confidence” because they infer that any such loss of confidence is permanent and definitive, and will ultimately be followed up by a refusal of supply by the House which would stop the government from operating. The problem here is that Mr Morrison seems to have said explicitly that the vote isn’t deemed to be one of confidence, and will just be ignored. That then puts it back on the cross-benchers: if they really want to bring the government down, they would need to support an explicit no-confidence motion.
By the way, nice to see Boerwar contributing again.
Getting through just the first week could be the longest 6 months in Morrison’s life.
Meanwhile, Mr Costigan seems not to have met expected standards of behaviour:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/mps-reveal-jason-costigans-alleged-predatory-behaviour/news-story/eea0bf5ae8acbab2a2fa84582a483f4b
Has the government shot itself in the foot with this move?
What is this chromecast? Utube to the rescue
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRvh2CyVdLo
I now know.
“What do we want? ELECTION! When do we want it? NOW! “, cries out across the nation.
Porter saying that the Senate’s amendments are unconstitutional.
Porter is saying that it is not the High Court that decides what is constitutional.
But the Parliament.
BK
I doubt it.
If I were one of the people on Manus or Nauru, I think I would hope the bill passes and the government continues. Elections take time. How long before this opportunity would re-present itself?
Why did they wait so long to claim the bill was unconstitutional? I thought the bill passed the senate at the beginning of December.
Porter doing a good job, IMO.
mh
Why would they telegraph their punches?
I assume that the tricky bit is that the money amendment has come from the Senate.
I also assume that the House could initiate a new Bill should it so want to do.
I doubt whether Labor has the numbers for the latter.
bw
Good point, & welcome back.