Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Question

    All the parties do. The only difference with the Greens is they are a bit too public with their own objections for their own good sometimes.

    I see this as their reaction to being cast as the villains so often when they are working on the right side of history

  2. prepare yourself for an overwhelming sense of “that sounds so familiar”. A Paul Krugman article on debt…

    Democrats, Debt and Double Standards

    ………….But wait, you may object — he(Trump) didn’t say anything about debt. Indeed he didn’t — not one word. But that’s what was so revealing.

    After all, Republicans spent the entire Obama administration inveighing constantly about the dangers of debt, warning that America faced a looming crisis unless deficits were drastically reduced. Now that they’re in power, however — and with the deficit surging thanks to a huge tax cut for corporations and the rich — they’ve totally dropped the subject.
    https://outline.com/XW8aLG

  3. Terri Butler MP
    ‏Verified account @terrimbutler
    26m26 minutes ago

    Did the Greens really learn nothing from their terrible decision to vote with the Liberals against carbon pollution reduction?

    Greens in LALA LAND.

  4. Sohar @ #1048 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 9:11 am

    This is a well-researched article on ‘football’ in Australia. Football could be anything.

    https://www.theroar.com.au/afl/longform/the-murky-origins-of-australias-football-codes-525150/

    “According to historian Tony Collins in his book, The Oval World: A Global History of Rugby, Australian football was ‘the first type of football to become a mass spectator sport anywhere in the world.’”

    Rubbish.

    That honour could easily go to Ladies Football in the UK.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_football_in_England

    The AFL is very very late to this party, about 150 years late. And in any case, their AFLW has turned out to be a tokenistic failure.

    Here is some history from Wiki.

    Early women’s football

    Japanese high-school girls playing football in their traditional hakama with one team wearing sashes. (c. 1920)
    Women may have been playing “football” for as long as the game has existed. Evidence shows that an ancient version of the game (Tsu Chu) was played by women during the Han Dynasty (25–220 CE). Two female figures are depicted in Han Dynasty (25–220 CE) frescoes, playing Tsu Chu.[5] There are, however, a number of opinions about the accuracy of dates, the earliest estimates at 5000 BCE.[6] Reports of an annual match being played in Scotland are reported as early as the 1790s.[7][8] The first match recorded by the Scottish Football Association took place in 1892 in Glasgow. In England, the first recorded game of football between women took place in 1895.[9][10]

    Association football, the modern game, also has documented early involvement of women. In Europe, it is possible that 12th-century French women played football as part of that era’s folk games. An annual competition in Mid-Lothian, Scotland during the 1790s is reported, too.[7][8] In 1863, football governing bodies introduced standardized rules to prohibit violence on the pitch, making it more socially acceptable for women to play.[9]

    The most well-documented early European team was founded by activist Nettie Honeyball in England in 1894. It was named the British Ladies’ Football Club. Honeyball and those like her paved the way for women’s football. However the women’s game was frowned upon by the British football associations, and continued without their support. It has been suggested that this was motivated by a perceived threat to the ‘masculinity’ of the game.[11]

    A Welsh women’s football team pose for a photograph in 1959
    Women’s football became popular on a large scale at the time of the First World War, when employment in heavy industry spurred the growth of the game, much as it had done for men fifty years earlier. A team from England played a team from Ireland on Boxing Day 1917 in front of a crowd of 20,000 spectators.[12] The most successful team of the era was Dick, Kerr’s Ladies of Preston, England. The team played in the first women’s international matches in 1920, against a team from Paris, France, in April, and also made up most of the England team against a Scottish Ladies XI in 1920, winning 22-0.[7]

    Despite being more popular than some men’s football events (one match saw a 53,000 strong crowd),[13] women’s football in England suffered a blow in 1921 when The Football Association outlawed the playing of the game on Association members’ pitches, on the grounds that the game (as played by women) was distasteful.[14] Some speculated that this may have also been due to envy of the large crowds that women’s matches attracted.[15] This led to the formation of the English Ladies Football Association and play moved to rugby grounds.[16]

    Football is the one code which can be played by anyone. Regardless of age, gender, disability, or whatever, a game can be organised and played. The location can be anything from a carpark to a beach, indoor or outdoor. It can be adapted easily, hence a form Wheelchair Football, Table Soccer and online games.

    It is the ultimate egalitarian sport and from its background as a working class sport, is appropriately the game of the masses.

    It was probably started as kicking enemies’ heads around after the battle, a war game.

    Football is global. It is interesting to study for its global reach and influence. Aussie Rules is interesting to study as a local, culture specific activity.

    Football is an outward looking sport, driving expansion into most countries while AFL is valued as a symbol of exceptionalism and closed networks, in my humble opinion.

    Rugby is rugby.

  7. Guytaur – I think that last line reflects a chicken/egg argument …

    The cause and effect can easily be transposed.

    ‘Johnny is naughty because people are mean to him … or people are mean to Johnny because he is naughty’

    All perspective, I reckon

  15. Also the planting of football around the world generally followed the British ships. Sailors would play football on shore, and from that local clubs were formed, followed by organised football leagues. The history is fascinating as is Football’s modern reach and influence.
    There is a good PhD topic in that.

  19. The Oz is showing it is totally desperate and now attacking Labor through other pollies that they dont give a shit about i.e Phelps and Di Natalie.You know they are fucked when they give Di Natalie any credibility.

  20. Of course, Millennial.

    Whenever a bill comes up to disturb the status quo – every politician examines the political fallout it might accrue.

    Or they should.

    I doubt the Libs examined the political fallout from ousting Turnbull very closely — that said, I reckon they’d be in similar position now because of the hamfisted nonsense that has gone on with the rorting etc. uncovered since.

  23. Player One:

    [‘I believe they had to stop that when the newspapers began to smell fishier than the fish & chips.’]

    I’ll pay that one.

  25. The banking royal commission findings appear to have delivered a political fillip to Labor, with the opposition extending its lead over the Coalition 55% to 45% on the two-party-preferred measure.

    The new Guardian Essential poll, taken before Monday’s major party brinkmanship on asylum seekers in the lead-up to the resumption of parliament, puts the government’s primary vote on 34% and Labor’s on 38%, and the independents’ share of the vote has risen to 11%, up from 9%.

  26. Returned my Foxtel box last week Jen, (again, the third time over the years I have cancelled, resubscribed and then cancelled again).
    No more for me; apart from not wanting my $ to fund the after dark boneheads I generally only watched Seinfeld re runs. Total waste of money.

  28. Sky News Australia

    .@PeterDutton_MP on the medivac bill: We’ve watched this show before with Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. They did exactly the same thing. At least Kevin Rudd waited until he got into office before he dismantled … border security measures.

    *****

    Mark Dreyfus
    ✔
    @markdreyfusQCMP
    If you’re going to make a hysterical attack @PeterDutton_MP, better get your facts right – the eminent QC and constitutional expert Peter Hanks is an entirely different person from (the also eminent) refugee law expert Matthew Albert. #auspol #whoops

  29. The full Essential Report is usually available on-line before this time of day. Not a big deal, but I wonder why the delay today?

  30. Murphy

    I can only apologise really. There are so many moving parts it’s almost impossible to deliver smooth and linear coverage of a process that is neither smooth, not linear.

    I mentioned earlier the intel out of the talks was the timeframe for determinations was heading for a landing point of 48 hours rather than where things started at the beginning of the day, which was as soon as practicable.

    People are now counseling me away from 48 hours.

    Several people are saying what’s under discussion at this moment is a seven day timeframe, with provision for urgent medical transfers.

    Just flagging this more up to date advice in the event this is where things ultimately settle. I’ve been saying all morning this is a movable feast.

    We just have to keep moving.

  34. “”Did the Greens really learn nothing from their terrible decision to vote with the Liberals against carbon pollution reduction?”

    And the Malaysian Solution!, none of this disaster would have happened, because it would have stopped the boat arrivals instantly, who in the hell would want to go to Malaysia!!!!!.
    They were prepared to ship them out immediately to Malaysia, IF they arrived and they would have had rocks in their head for brains to even attempt to get on a boat!.

  40. Craig Foster pushing for a revision of Australia’s refugee policy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2019/feb/12/sport-officials-willing-to-sacrifice-hakeem-al-araibis-life-while-in-a-position-of-prestige-should-be-expunged

    Australia’s record on refugees also requires revision and, while we did not want to dilute the message throughout the campaign, I assure our Thai friends that we always intended to hold ourselves to the same standards.

    Australia needs to look at how we treat every human being that comes to these shores, irrespective of how they arrive. I have committed to many throughout this campaign, including the UN, that I would work to this end when Hakeem was free and I intend to do so.

  41. [Ewin Hannan
    ‏
    @EwinHannan
    2h2 hours ago

    David De Garis says it was Michaelia Cash’s then chief of staff, Ben Davies, who told him in advance about AWU raids. De Garis then tipped off media. Says he wanted to get media coverage of one of the first ROC probes. ‘I didn’t understand the significance of what I was doing.’]

  44. #WeatheronPB: clear, sunny, windy, 35° and for once, NOT humid in Sydney. I don’t mind this sort of weather, but the drawback, and it’s a big one, is the fire danger – Severe in Sydney and most of NSW, extreme in the Hunter (North of Sydney).

  46. Thanks lizzie. I’m surprised by Murphy saying

    this is a movable feast.

    I suppose it might be seen that way from a journalist’s perspective, but I doubt it is a “feast” for anyone who cares about the outcome.

  49. Henry @ #1324 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 10:21 am

    I generally only watched Seinfeld re runs. Total waste of money.

    Stan has every episode of Seinfeld. You can watch them on your own schedule rather than when someone decides to run them. Plus may other good shows like Breaking Bad and its prequel Better Call Saul, Parks & Recreation, both the UK and US versions of The Office, Yes Minister and Prime Minister, The Thick Of It, Fawlty Towers, Mother And Son, Extras, every 007 movie, and a whole lot more for a fraction of the cost of RupertTel. You can either binge through a every episode of a show, or mix n match. You’re in control of what you watch, and when you watch it.

    As far as I’m aware you can join for a month at no cost and see what you think. I joined when the first season of Better Call Saul was showing. I waited until the full season was available, and was planning
    to binge on that, then cancelling. 4 years later, I’m still with them.

  50. Tony Windsor is spot on with his tweet re the greens.
    They are generally starved of oxygen and relevance, when issues like this come along its their chance to get some airtime and play with the the big boys and girls. Grandstanding and stringing it out for as long as possible suits them.

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