After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.
BB mentioned the ‘own goal’ from Timmy… this is embarrassing
“Liberal MP Tim Wilson will be obliged to assess at least 97 parliamentary inquiry submissions containing text that he wrote himself.
Wilson is the chair of the House economics committee, which is currently conducting an inquiry into Labor’s proposal to end cash refunds for excess imputation credits.
However, Wilson has also created and authorised a campaign website, stoptheretirementtax.com, which he has been directing people to if they want to speak or register to attend inquiry hearings.
The website also allows people to make a submission to the inquiry with a suggested, pre-written submission against the Labor policy.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/12/tim-wilson-to-assess-at-least-97-franking-credit-inquiry-submissions-he-helped-write?CMP=share_btn_tw
ar
I’m opting for your return serve of some ‘helpful advice’ she received suggestion.
Thank you Leroy! 🙂
a r @ #1145 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 11:22 am
DiNatale is correct in pointing out the ‘indefinite timeline’ makes it potentially worse than it is now.
Labor are gonna cop it whichever way it goes because of their vote in the senate 2 months ago.
Labor have botched this so badly.
[guytaur says:
Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 12:26 pm
The Essential poll shows Labor don’t need to be scared of boats.]
The assumption behind your comment is that Labor’s position on the Bill is driven by politics, not principle.
I can only presume you make this assumption in the arrogant belief that anyone who thinks differently to you in relation to the treatment of refugees (whatever your opinion may be at any given point in time) is not acting in good faith.
Had you posted “The Essential poll shows Labor can do anything they like re boats and will still get elected” I might disagree with your opinion but I would not despise it.
Matt31 – I think the previous Essential was meant to come out a week earlier than it did, the sample period started at the usual time but got stretched out nearly a week (hard to get respondents in the holidays?) so the release got pushed back. I think its back at its usual fortnightly schedule now, so no weekly polls.
‘Emma Husar MP
@emmahusarmp
6m6 minutes ago
More
If I am not in #Parliament not sure what this place is. @australian’
(accompanied by photo of Parliament House)
Chill, everyone.
deleted a rant about Husar not being in parl…..she is…..my bad.
The crossbenchers can vote against any of Labor’s amendments they don’t like. The amendments would then not be in the bill, and Labor will still support it.
Again, chill.
guytaur @ #1243 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 11:29 am
That applies to all parties/politicians, not just Labor. It’s why the world has Trump; people want leadership and will vote for perceived strength.
All Labor needs to do is firmly reject the Coalition’s argument as the scare campaign it is, and then keep the spotlight on all their other failures, lies, and scandals. Put the pressure on and keep it on, and win big. Get pushed around by FUD, lies, and scare campaigns, and…well Labor still almost certainly wins, but not quite as big.
RD
Yes I agree on the Labor botching it.
They should have had their bottom line worked out before the Senate vote.
Its a medical transfer bill to a hospital
Emma may have her problems but there’s little chance of her morphing into a Latham.
‘
Verified account
@samanthamaiden
3m3 minutes ago
More
Can confirm I just saw @emmahusarmp in House of Reps lift! So she’s here now! “Husar fails to show ahead of medivac bill vote”
Zoomster.
I accept your Chill admonition.
It reflects the Dreyfus and Phelps confidence this morning.
I accept it because negotiating is still happening and no amendment means the government loses today
I see that listening to doctors and defeating the government as Labor’s bottom line. I see the national security stuff trying to deflect future scare campaigns.
Which is why I am saying hold strong Labor.
Certainly don’t start a blame the Greens before negotiations are over.
Good !
Will losing this vote on the house floor be the trigger for Dutton’s challenge? National Security is at stake after all…
The revelation that Ben Davies, Cash’s CoS, was the source of the leak to De Garis is huge.
The only name that could have been worse for Cash would have been her own. 🙂
With today’s Essential recording the Tories’ primary vote as 34%, the shows all but over.
JohnCee
Yes some may laugh but there may still be a fourth Liberal PM left in this six year term!
Which was why I expected Morrison to go early – now if the polls start sitting in that 55-45 territory the Liberal MPs will get restless and in desperation may try anything. I would not even be surprised if the right-wingers held their noses and voted in Julie Bishop (just to save their own sorry a’s!)
Mavis
I am so looking forward to the end of this government.
Not only aLabor agenda but a government that will listen to expert advice. Not actively oppose it like this one does with climate change and boats.
Edit: We are at the point when a Tory Independent can stand up for human rights including future generations than a government and all its incumbent advantage can.
Mavis Smith @ #1265 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 11:43 am
Still waiting on the full report. https://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport
mick Quinlivan, agree with professional advice. I mean how many predicted the GFC?
In fact I know of two people who dodged the ill effects of the GFC. One had a SMSF and kept such poor records of shares purchased etc, his auditors told him to sell them all and start again. The GFC hit shortly after and he preserved his capital in cash. He later bought up a bucket of cheap shares which have since nearly doubled. Another was worried about his retirement and swapped from equity to cash just at the right time.
Both were flukes, but most people followed the advise of the professionals down the financial chute.
It is the Greens who have already shown bad faith, by not even willing to negotiate at all, but instead rejecting publicly any amendment outright, it is just pure politics from the Greens.
Amending bills is nothing new, so spare us the BS that what Labor is doing is anything different.
I know 25 million people who did alright during the GFC: most Australians.
The Guardian @ 12:25pm
I hear the Greens – having threatened to sink the package this morning – are now back at the table, having had some of their concerns assuaged. So don’t assume they kill the legislation. It might happen, but it doesn’t look like it right at the moment.
Specifically, I hear a time frame for determinations (which was Richard Di Natale’s main concern) has been resolved. The word is 48 hours, not 24 as was originally proposed.
All the information I have to hand suggests the other crossbenchers are still at the table.
Rex,
Labor and the Greens combining in the Senate to push for water buyback cap to be scrapped after Murray-Darling summer crisis. The move could see more water returned to river. #auspol @abcnews— Dan Conifer (@DanConifer) February 12, 2019
Good !
Have to agree on that one!
Meanwhile, over in the OZ, the headlines are:
‘PM to test Labor over asylum cave in.’ And, ‘Shorten in backdown on borders’ – Benson.
‘Bill Shorten has blinked so hard on border protection he could have his eyes closed for days. This humiliating backdown is Labor’s first real setback’ – Shanahan.
When I was a lad, they used to wrap fish & chips in yesterday’s newspapers.
Peebee and BB
In a crisis moment Labor listened to the correct professional advice.
The Guardian re Labor’s 3 amendments:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/feb/12/morrison-shorten-coalition-labor-medical-evacuation-bill-kerryn-phelps-politics-live?page=with:block-5c6225abe4b04a6f567dda12#block-5c6225abe4b04a6f567dda12
Mavis Smith
Such sparkling wit by Shanahan. “Blinky Bill.”
guytaur:
[‘I am so looking forward to the end of this government.’]
Me too! And so it would seem, most Australians.
Tweets & replies
Media
Likes
AWU – Australian Workers’ Union’s Tweets
AWU – Australian Workers’ Union
AWU – Australian Workers’ Union
@AWUnion
·
13m
Cash will appear in Federal Court this Friday
Court learns Cash staffer was source of leak about AFP raids on union
smh.com.au
AWU – Australian Workers’ Union
AWU – Australian Workers’ Union
@AWUnion
·
43m
Senator Cash’s COS, Ben Davies tipped off David De Garis about the raids on the AWU raids.
Who told Ben Davies?
Word from the Guardian says that the Greens’ concerns have been resolved and the Greens are now backing the medivac legislation.
So that’s good news.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/feb/12/morrison-shorten-coalition-labor-medical-evacuation-bill-kerryn-phelps-politics-live?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with:block-5c622041e4b042feedcbbff5#block-5c622041e4b042feedcbbff5
Mavis Smith @ #1275 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 12:53 pm
I believe they had to stop that when the newspapers began to smell fishier than the fish & chips.
I actually think there is another, underlying dimension to the coordinated effort over the medical bill.
Labor is the champion of Health policy. They have backed Drs over the rebate freeze and I think they’d like Drs to view Labor favourable in the next election (don’t forget they have a very eminent Dr running in Benelong, and also have Dr in outer west Sydney seat – can’t remember off-hand which).
Drs, above all, are respected in the community. Siding with them, or having them side with Labor, is a good electoral image to project.
PeeBee
I was on council at the time. A couple of months previously, one of our officers told us to divest anything high risk and put it into the banks. It would (on paper) represent a loss of $50k a year to council.
We all scoffed at this, then asked him for the source of his advice – he named a well respected local accountant, who advised council on financial matters.
We immediately adjusted our investments accordingly, as did a number of other local organisations…
The Potato is predicting our northern seas and oceans will spontaneously combust if the Government changes hands.
We’re now getting an early dose of ‘just how strong are our borders, very, but Labor will burn them down’ from Peter Dutton, because second Monday is the gift that just keeps on giving.
Surely the flames will make transiting them in wooden boats more difficult.
From the Guardian blog
So the Labor partisans appear to be trying to make petty political points, slathering at every mention of Teh Greens, rather than hope and work for a solution to what is an appalling circumstance for many on Manus and Nauru.
Despite the rhetoric and antagonism, at least there is some sense in regard to the MDB. After this summer could there be any other approach?
Of interest in the Essential poll is what seems to be the continuing disenfranchisement with voting for major parties.
Labor and Lib combined are only 72% PV together. Seems a further low ebb after months and months of ~75% for Labor and LNP. No further details aside from independents going from 9% to 11% so far. Though a large chunk of the population seems pretty determined to vote elsewhere.
PeeBee
I followed advice of professionals in the wake of GFC and did not go down the chute.
His advice? Don’t be panicked by the fear and doom and gloom merchants.
Worked for me
Landmark climate ruling as NSW court rejects coal mine
How long before fed LNP do a Wik on this? Here’s hoping they try, it will sink them even more 😀
lizzie:
[‘Such sparkling wit by Shanahan. “Blinky Bill.”]
He’s as predictable as the retrograde motion of Venus and Uranus.
So rational people of goodwill working for the best outcome can find a solution.
Its the carbon price all over again. Its only the radical irrational LNP on the outside of this.
“Michaelia Cash’s former COS Ben Davies named in court as the source of leaks on AWU raids“
So do they now call Davies & ask him was he instructed to pass the information & if so was it Cash? Declining to answer on grounds of self incrimination won’t work.
If the book is open on next Newspoll put me down for 60 / 40 to Labor
Scott to call early election to protect Cash
Di Natale was the one negotiating with a megaphone according to the Guardian.
blah, blah, blah…
It was black wiggle purity that sunk the bill 🙁
Hindsight is going to be wonderful on this morning’s politics. As a for instance, did Labor deliberately make the time period ambiguous to allow Di Natalie some oxygen? (Which would not have been to help Di Natalie, but to show that political maturity means working with people.)
Apparently Davies is already on the witness list. 😆
Question @ #1292 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 1:02 pm
The Greens appear to think “virtue signalling” is an effective negotiating tactic 🙁
Fozzie
The Daily Telegraph was already trying to destroy the judge in that case becase he helped start up the Environmental Defenders Office before joining the bar.
Age editorial yesterday:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/medivac-bill-merits-parliament-s-support-20190211-p50x1x.html