First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.
Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.
WeWantPaul @ #810 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 11:05 am
Environmental destruction and a divided brawling society. That’s their legacy.
When will people choose an alternative candidate on the ballot papers ?
Peter Stanton @ #812 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 11:07 am
Is it comforting for you to live in a divided society and a polluted environment.
What logic do you use to justify voting for a party that has contributed to this ?
How sweet would it be if Scumo staged an improbable come back, but the government lost the election by one seat – Warringah?
In reality, I suspect that despite Bill Shorten and the almost wall-to-wall right wing media bias (I cancelled my online subscription to The Age this week as they are now murdoch-lite), the government is in for “root and branch reform” (as shown here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlIsHojKVPQ ) due to the rise of Indies in safe seats as well as the swing labor will get. Even if the government stages some form of recovery between now and May, I predict Turnbull will tip a large bucket of bile on them just before the early voting polls open. He will make statements about climate change and energy policy, as well as LNP dysfunction and the duplicity of Morrison, Hunt and others just at the right time to see the libs smashed in a landslide. I worry that Shorten can still do a Hewson, but Morrison is no Keating and Shorten is not proposing a GST and remaking of society to suit the wealthy at the cost of the rest of us.
sprocket_ @ #813 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 11:08 am
I disagree that campaigning against more coal mines is ‘wasted energy’.
What logic is there in ignoring more pollution and destruction of our environment ?
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 11:09 am
WeWantPaul @ #810 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 11:05 am
Liberal and Labor are unfit for Govt.
Well it has been a long time since we had a Govt that was neither Liberal or Labor, and it seems unlikely in the near future.
Environmental destruction and a divided brawling society. That’s their legacy.
When will people choose an alternative candidate on the ballot papers ?
——————————-
They have quite a few times as the number of independents that have won attests to. On a few occasions in the upper middle class gentrified inner city seats they have even elected Greens. In general they seem to prefer independents over Greens.
Sprocket – the libs are going to have an extra sitting week after the budget session? Somehow, I think not!
Peter Stanton @ #818 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 11:15 am
It’s completely illogical to vote for parties with a record of such environmental destruction and social division.
Rex Douglas @ #807 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 10:18 am
That’s not a nice thing to say about the Greens.
Is Malcolm going to campaign for Zali??? I would not be surprised.
KayJay @ #731 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:54 am
sustainable future
I still don’t really understand why Hewson fumbled the birthday cake thingy.
Raw ingredients, no GST. Once it has ‘value added’ ( + cooked in oven) GST applies.
Hewson’s team must have been extremely lacking in basic logic — oh, that’s right, they were Libs. 🙁
The Green supporters are pissed off today, have they finally recognised their irrelevance?
BUT, since 1996 for how many years have we had a Coalition government, including the last 6 years?
And, in 2007, Labor walked slap bang into the sub prime lending crisis.
Simply, government is a process, a never ending process.
What we see now across society and with our economic well being is the result of government process being dictated to by free markets, so the most effective form of regulation is self regulation (so “government, get out of the way) and adherence to the belief that austerity delivers confidence and that confidence trickles down.
This has been the process since 1996, with only a minor and compromised exclusion.
It will take 2 to 3 terms of Labor government to reverse the current outcomes of process therefore Labor governments being returned which is the indicator that they are progressively taking the electorate with them.
Simply, there will be an opposition, supported by the usual culprits who have vested interest in “free markets” and entrenched positions
KayJay says:
Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 9:08 am
lizzie
Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 8:36 am
Comment #652
One could perhaps see Orstraya move up the following list (until an incoming Gummint changed the rules to allow syphoning (privatisation) and the service provided to the node only).
https://ceoworld.biz/2018/02/14/the-top-25-countries-with-the-best-healthcare-systems-the-world-in-2017/
These type of articles are pure garbage.
Canada is 24th on the list.
Here are the facts:
For the past 50 years in Canada, my wife and I have never received a single bill for any health or hospital services. It is ILLEGAL for physicians or hospitals to bill patients.
We have never been subjected to any significant wait times for diagnosis or treatment.
In recent years I have received numerous major tests (MRI, scans, echocardiograms, ultrasound) with minimum wait times.
We are able to choose the physician or specialist upon referral by a G.P.
There are no “private hospitals” as it is understood in Australia. There is no insurance for physicians or hospital services. There is only a single payer for health services: the Canadian government.
The saying is: “to get health care, you only need your health card, not your credit card.”
Now compare that to Australia which is 10th on list. As Crocodile Dundee might have said: You think you have a good health care system? THAT (Canada’s) is a health care system!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-10/katrina-hodgkinson-runs-for-gilmore-against-warren-mundine/10797124
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 11:12 am
Is it comforting for you to live in a divided society and a polluted environment.
What logic do you use to justify voting for a party that has contributed to this ?
—————————————
In a our democracy we have to choose between the candidates that run. I have many times had to choose the least worse candidate because that is all that is on offer. A few times that has been the Green candidate. Since seeing the example of the damage a Greens dominated government can do I have avoided voting for them. The example I use to judge them is the Greens dominated Byron Bay Council.
I have spent my adult life doing my bit to address the problem by being active in politics at many levels.
In Brexit news, quoting Monty Python, “I’m not dead yet.”
There appears to be some support for a 2nd Brexit referendum.
It is still possible for a delay to the Brexit process.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/back-theresa-may-brexit-deal-then-hold-peoples-vote-backbencher-plan
And a nasty Howard hangover senate.
And greens prepared to kill the CPRS on the mistaken belief they could do better after Labor cruised to victory in the next election.
And a mighty big dose of selfharm stupidity.
Abbott’s not only in denial he’s also very worried:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-warringah-should-send-me-back-to-canberra-20190208-p50whv.html
It will be wonderful to witness the end of his toxic brand of politics, his denialism. I imagine he’s already lined up a permanent gig on Sky, maybe partnering Credlin.
There was a time when this blog was full of good intelligent discussion about politics and policy. There were times when discussion also ventured into other areas which was instructive and thought-provoking.
I pay William a monthly fee on the strength of that. But in recent times it has degenerated to a point where I am seriously thinking of withdraw my support – not for anything William has done, but because where it was a joy to have such discussions we are now confronted by childish battles between posters who constantly play the man and not the ball.
I find myself scrolling past reams of posts. Sniping posts. Snarking posts. Or downright nasty posts in the case of some (who purport to be of one political persuasion but their posts suggests something else – but that is by the by). The people who spend their day writing these posts might be entertained … but most probably aren’t.
I’m heartily tired of the ongoing feuds which achieve nothing except perhaps, the personal reward the feuders want to feel at thinking they’ve bested each other. Childish is the word. Like kids in the back of a car.
I’m also tired of the constant reliving of history as if somehow, with the reprise of the argument, the result might somehow magically change.
I suspect William is not happy either, but I cannot speak for him.
It saddens me, it really does. And for those who will now attack me for saying the above. You just prove my point.
Jenauthor
Me thinks some are intent on deliberately hijacking the blog
I should add . Sabotaging it as well
rhwombat
Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 10:34 am
Comment #770
and
C@tmomma @ #790 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 10:59 am
I am grateful to The Australian because almost at random one can pick an article and find, barely concealed, a treasure of, disinformation, misinformation, manipulation and deceit. Wonderful material.
Then behold – one is rewarded with knowledge of a term such as —
Skulking round 👉The Rupertariat like a Lepers Limb. 👈
Looking on the bright side there’s at least some cultural diversity 😀
jenauthor says:
Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 11:32 am
Thank you for that comment. As a long time reader and recent commentor I feel your frustration. I try to offer reasoned comment but are at time guilty of lapsing into the pointless point scoring. I find increasingly I am just panning past many contributions. An old political saying comes to mind when I think of many of what passes for debate on PB. “You cannot reason a person out of an opinion they did not reason themselves into.”
Jen – couldn’t agree more and of course it’s no reflection on William or the outstanding analysis he provides. I’ve mostly stopped reading the comments at all during the week – drop in sometimes in the weekend but usually exit promptly. It is a pity because there are some excellent contributors and quality discussion here but it’s increasingly difficult to find amidst the personal attacks and childish partisan sloganeering.
jenauthor:
The block function is a glorious thing.
Jenauthor I’m hoping we will again have some robust political dialogue once Labor wins the election. I think PB in recent times is largely a result of the terrible government situation.
Irony.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/08/heathrow-stockpiling-rubber-gloves-from-eu-for-post-brexit-searches
The gloves that allow British customs officials to search people arriving from the EU, are made in the EU. Without EU gloves they can’t search EU people.
jenauthor @ #821 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 8:32 am
jenauthor and those already expressing support +1
Hang in here Jen please.
Abbott local logic, followed by ‘look what I achieved, people’.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-warringah-should-send-me-back-to-canberra-20190208-p50whv.html
Yes, jenauthor, hang in there. Don’t be like mari, understandable as her choice was. Because you know what happens next.
jenauthor…………I disagree………….there have always been individuals here who think a head is for kicking rather than thinking……………………Boring in the past and just a boring now……………..
Rex Douglas @ #680 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 11:12 am
What logic do you use to justify voting for a party whose only contributions have been to vote with the COALition against an ETS and to ensure that asylum seekers are kept on Nauru and Manus Island by siding with the COALition again to block the` Malaysian solution?
Confessions @ #826 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 11:41 am
Looking on the dark side, that particular culture has had some very bad attitudes towards women too.
I think it would help the blog significantly if comments where nested, so that when people reply to other comments their comment isnt given the same prominence of a reply to the original post.
It would mean that when people go off on a tangent attacking each other, the rest of us can just ignore that entire thread.
G’day
I’ve not posted much lately, buy I’ve been reading the blog quite frequently. There seems to have been even more Labor vs Greens nonsense than usual.
While I don’t generally read too much into debates among the usual suspects on PB, I’m wondering if this is symptomatic of a broader problem for the Labor..
I’ve really busy with stuff at the moment and I don’t have much time to follow the day to day minutiae of politics, so I find Insiders on Sunday provides me with a good chance to take stock of current trends. This is not because I’m greatly impressed by the commentary provided by the panel: I’m not. But I think the show does cover the scope of the current debate pretty well.
Last week, most of the discussion was about Labor’s policies about dividend imputation and negative gearing/CGT. This week, much of the discussion was about Labor’s stance on asylum seekers, although there was a bit about the banking commission at the end (primarily, some unenlightened suggestions from the panel that it wouldn’t be difficult for the Government to introduce some reforming legislation during the short remaining life of this parliament: demonstrating once again that many of the leading lights of the Press Gallery would do well to spend more of their time learning about how the machinery of government actually works).
Anyway, what I have observed, for two weeks in a row, is that the main focus of Insiders – which is by no means a pro-Government program, has been on Labor Party policy stances that are potentially going to run badly in the marginal seats. And this is at a time when the Government appears to be significantly divided on important issues such as climate change and the status of women and, at an existential level, the general political orientation of the Liberal Party.
The Liberals under Abbott and advised by Credlin did not find themselves in this sort of situation in 2013 when they were running against an equally divided and demoralised Labor Government. They consistently turned the spotlight on Labor and made sure that the continuing problems of the Government were just about the only issue.
Since Xmas, Labor under Shorten have largely failed to match Abbott’s success in this regard. They’ve had a few glimpses this week: eg, the Banking Royal Commission report and Tim Wilson’s problems. But the main story for next week is looking like becoming “will they/won’t they” with the Phelps Bill.
What is Labor up to? Why are they so clearly repeating Hewson’s mistake of 1993 of going into an election with a big, complicated taxation policy for which they are struggling to explain the rationale? Why did they go anywhere near the Phelps Bill when Blind Freddy could see that the only possible outcome for them was that they would be wedged big time?
There is no doubt a range of contributing factors: including, I suspect, the absence of any political strategist with the insight and cunning of a Peta Credline. But, to return to my opening point, I also can’t help feeling that – like the pro-Labor posters on PB – the current Labor leadership is expending a great deal of their energy in worrying about their rivals to their political left rather than taking the obvious approach of putting all their effort into trying to expose the Government’s areas of weakness and disunity.
And, because I consider that Labor have had a dreadful couple of weeks, I’m predicting 52/48 for the next Newspoll, and I wouldn’t be completely surprised by 51/49. It seems to me that Labor has spent the past few weeks digging itself into a deep and deeper hole.
If I’m wrong, then I’m happy for you to throw tomatoes at me. There are some grounds for thinking that Newspoll might remain bad for the Government for the foreseeable future. A couple of months ago, it did seem that a majority of voters had made their minds up about the Morrison Government and that was that. Maybe that majority is fixed at around 52-53 per cent and won’t shift now. But the Labor Party surely can’t bank on that.
I think I’ve seen the leader of those Young Libs on TV (The Drum?) and regardless of his background, he’s a bumptious young knowitall.
The PB blog is just a reflection of the confusion in Federal politics.
The confusion being that the Federal LNP is destined for the opposition benches and will attempt anything to prolong the inevitable.
The other confusion on PB is the Greens, their bloggers and supporters find themselves with no apparent gain in relevance and voter support.
Labor have done the hard work and are avoiding obstacles set in place because of jealousy and outright hatred.
The voters are just totally disillusioned and indifferent.
House prices have levelled out putting spending and addition credit at risk.
Drought, floods and fires don’t help.
Everyone’s a wannabe spiv or shyster.
Bugger, we’ll blow up some more fire crackers on the Harbour Bridge and the politicians will tell us what a great country we live in.
Morrison will need more than a couple of jiggers to get through next week. It will be Australian politics in the gutter.
I’m alright mate I’ll have a waterfront home. Hope the rest of you can swim!
While I like the logic of that Bug I am not a fan of nested comments … it tends to lose chronology
Pokies in Tasmania – the corrupting and venal influence of political donations and the power of sectional lobby groups
https://www.smh.com.au/national/venal-power-of-political-donations-and-poker-machines-20190209-p50wr0.html
beguiledagain
Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 11:24 am
Comment #656
Thanks for your post.
Forgive me for the reference to a list – I picked it at random – knowing that there are many such lists which are made for various reasons and yes I know that such lists are BS.
The thrust of my post is that Australia could be, should be much better and being told that we have the best health system in the world is patently rubbish.
I could not agree more with your post:-
Thanks again. 👍
Greg Jericho’s take:
‘Boasting that their economic management has not resulted in better living standards or much hope of better ones in the next three years is not going to win votes.’:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/09/with-an-election-looming-the-governments-fear-is-palpable
Bug:
There was a short time period when PB did have nested comments, and it didn’t work because people didn’t use the functionality.
bug1
I’ve been on blogs with threads in the past, and they tend to be difficult to follow, strangely, as they form very narrow lines of discussion.
The only wish I have on PB is that people would put a name to the person or statement they are responding to, especially if it’s more than a few minutes old. Leaving that out has caused a few unfortunate ‘disturbances’ (one this morning).
Peg
Thanks for posting the poker machine reference. Talk about shysters!
Meher – I think we can agree to disagree. A Labor voter will listen more closely to what Labor says and dismiss the rest. A coalition voter will do the same. Greens, Indies and others will also pay more attention to the their pet arguments and mentally devalue what they don’t like/agree with.
From my biased view – the coalition had an appalling week. But I pay attention. Most voters do not. I guess Newspoll might indicate how awake everyone else was during this week.
Hilarious. Just watching News 24, Probyn with the sound offf ( only way he makes sense) , they cross to Greg Hunt I notice every time he needs to emphasise a word ( every 3rd by my count) he tips up & forward onto his toes… must be short persons syndrome