Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Interesting that Abbott gave water to the Nats and Barnaby, as the Liberals had always held control of the portfolio.

    Did they see it going to shit?

  3. Knowles showed all the signs of being just the lad they wanted to appoint.

    Knowles introduced a number of changes during his time as Planning Minister. These included the introduction of private certification of buildings. Another controversial change was the introduction of Part 3A of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act, which increased the powers of the Minister in approving major developments and superseded heritage and environmental protection legislation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Knowles

  4. Mueller has finally revealed the strategy he has been working on all along

    I feel like this line gets thrown around a lot. Like pretty much any time Mueller does anything. 🙂

  8. Barney in Go Dau @ #1062 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 3:28 pm

    shellbell @ #1645 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 11:24 am

    Control F Barnaby is fun. I like the bit where the SA minister suggested he leave the jurisdiction.

    Whether Tony Burke is criticised significantly requires a closer reading. I am not sure if he was responsible for appointing an ex NSW ALP pollie cum lobbyist in Craig Knowles to the Chairman’s role. If he did, it is time to don the black cap.

    From what I’ve seen so far he’s talked about problems which started with the establishment of the plan.

    I’ll say it. Lib-Lab govts have severely damaged the MDB. Shame on the duopoly.

  12. a r says: Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 3:40 pm

    Mueller has finally revealed the strategy he has been working on all along

    I feel like this line gets thrown around a lot. Like pretty much any time Mueller does anything

    *********************************************************

    Mueller has stuck to a tried and true formula of taking down big time mobsters that were thought untouchable – John Gotti or Sammy “The Bull ……. he already has a very impressive scoreboard of criminal indictments and criminal convictions related directly/indirectly to Trump …… and I reckon more to come – the BIG players in this – my money is on him being successful ….

  14. A euphamistic headline meaning Knowles gave them what they wanted and screwed over the MDB.
    .
    .
    City bloke who ‘got’ the country

    ………………The science indicated at least 4000GLs would be required to achieve a healthy flowing river and the MDBA’s own modelling showed under the most optimistic scenario the 3200GLs in the Basin Plan would only achieve 65 per cent of river health targets.
    In the end, the final Basin Plan was underpinned by a baseline target of 2750GLs.

    Mr La Nauze said in one respect, Mr Knowles simply took a more pragmatic approach and traded a higher degree of environmental health for a reduction in industry opposition.

    https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/3381601/city-bloke-who-got-the-country/

  15. The response to the MDB RC has been quite interesting.
    Politicians do not usually have any restraint about naming names and asserting blame to other politicians (usually on the other side of the chamber it must be said).
    And – – – when a Royal Commissioner names a thing such as a drought or the MDB commission or some other entity then they are also quite happy to take up the refrain; But – – – when a RC names a specific person or persons (especially if that person is a politician) then they become very defensive and cry foul or try to walk away from that specific finding.

    I guess it is a guild sort of thing – you know, ‘all for one & one for all’.

  16. Socrates
    Sales in the last quarter here were 20% below last year.If this is repeated countrywide then Morrison is in deep shit.

  17. Barney in Go Dau @ #1657 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 3:53 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1657 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 11:45 am

    …
    I’ll say it. Lib-Lab govts have severely damaged the MDB. Shame on duopoly.

    You would obviously say that only because you seem to have no ability to look at anything beyond the superficial. 😆

    In 2011 Tony Burke rejected then Chair of the Authority Mike Taylors concerns re the balance of environmental and socio-economic impacts of cuts to water allocations aimed at rescuing rivers in the basin. Mike Taylor quit and Craig Knowles was installed as Chairman.
    Then enter Barnaby when Abbott was given Govt by Rudd and we now have what we have.

    They’ve all been a disaster.

  18. Poroti

    Interesting to read that story on Knowles from 2014 when most of the stakeholders said he had done a good job and seemed opitimistic the MDB plan would work.

    Roll on and after five years of Tory maladministration look at what we have.

  21. Barney in Go Dau @ #1628 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 2:54 pm

    The Delta and Hoi An are perfect for cycling around, dead flat. I’ve done my share in those parts, it’s so beautiful and peaceful riding between the rice paddies watching the locals at work and play. 🙂

    Yes, dead flat, except for the bridges over the big rivers, which we rode up to the top of, to have a look at the view.

    Not much cool breeze at the top, either, but a nice fast breezy run, all the way back down. Somewhat interesting on the roads, sometimes. Scooters popping out from behind trucks and SUV’s, willy nilly.

  22. Wouldn’t it be nice if….

    It is the mind-blowing ignorance and neglect of the environment and climate change — coincidentally, also the issue the majority of Australians believe needs urgent action – which is likely to bring the Morrison Government down.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/editorial-excerpt-captain-morrisons-coalition-is-cooked-like-the-fish,12330

    Former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, the person who signed off on huge water “use” – also referred to as “theft” in some quarters – by gargantuan cotton irrigators, has likewise avoided the media and, of course, the stinky fish remains of his handiwork. Said handiwork also included dubious water purchases favouring wealthy irrigators, as previously reported by IA in 2017.

    Prime Minister Morrison, demonstrating that a “fish rots from the head down”, didn’t bother to visit the site, either, spending his time on elaborate Captain Cook commemorations and sporting events instead. He also tried to argue that despite the “devasting ecological event”, the Government had been “operating in accordance with scientific evidence” provided back in 2012 — except as IA has already pointed out, it has not.

    Instead, as a leaked 2012 memo from Fisheries NSW indicated:

    ‘There appears to have been no consideration of any scientific information on the impact of extraction or changes to the environment that have been detailed in the last decade.’

    And last but not least, this clueless response from Barnaby’s underwhelming replacement, Deputy PM Michael McCormack:

    “The fact is, we are experiencing incredibly prolonged dry period [sic] and when it doesn’t rain in the catchment, the water doesn’t flow down the Darling. Unfortunately, these things happen.”

    Of course, as pointed out by experts, these things never happen in normal drought conditions, evinced by the fact that some of these fish had survived for 100 years, until now.

  24. Upriver did not want to give SA any water. They vould not give tinker’s curse for the river system , especially at the end of the Murray which was dying.

  25. Catching up —

    @Barney

    Safe travels. I hope you’re never too far away from PB, and if you are, it’s where and how you want to be.

    @WH

    My thoughts on Local vs General, mindful anonymous internet posting is not advice, always ask your doctor 😉 , etc, and these are incomplete and some examples only

    *get ‘informed’ advice before you consent – you should be able to get some briefing on the risks with each of those options
    *the risks with general anaesthesia are ‘sort of’ known, if incompletely and not well understood, but there are risks with Local as well – some examples: risks from the injection per se (needly going in the wrong place), risks from the drugs (too much in toto, or relatively too much by injecting directly into a blood vessel
    *carpal tunnel surgery is especially amenable to local because the site of surgery obviates above to a significant extent
    *local is often associated with intravenous ‘dream time’ stuff, not unconscious but relaxed and often with amnesia, so you swear you were ‘asleep’
    *a surgeon who suggests doing it that way usually means he can do it that way
    *get a good surgeon

    @P1

    The books arrived! It is totally up my alley. I am massively impressed and thank you kindly for the tip off. Just today I also bought (second hand, $5 in a Kings Cross op shop) The Coming of Strangers – Life in Australia 1788-1822, a bicentennial publication by Baiba Berzins (State Library of NSW). From Anne Summers’ forward: Those who left no written record: The Aboriginal people; white women and convicts, have been brought forward to the foreground to give a balanced perspective …

  29. C@tmomma
    says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 3:25 pm
    I guess nasty nath will never mention that the Federal Parliamentary Deputy Labor Leader, Tanya Plibersek, is sending her children to the local Public High School either.
    ________________________________________
    Why wouldn’t I? I wish she was the leader.

  30. Reading the SMH article I saw lots of ‘gross maladministration’, ‘gross negligence’ and “unlawful” re ‘Federal Officials’.i did not see any mention of how the politicians overseeing it somehow failed to notice what was happening.

  31. Mike Carlton
    ‏@MikeCarlton01
    15m15 minutes ago

    While Premier @GladysB squanders billions on pulling down perfectly good sports stadiums and a hopelessly over-budget light rail system up George St, thousands of NSW kids and teachers sweltered today in 40 degree heat in classrooms without air conditioning. Priorities, anyone ?

  32. Rex Douglas @ #1666 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 12:03 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1657 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 3:53 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1657 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 11:45 am

    …
    I’ll say it. Lib-Lab govts have severely damaged the MDB. Shame on duopoly.

    You would obviously say that only because you seem to have no ability to look at anything beyond the superficial. 😆

    In 2011 Tony Burke rejected then Chair of the Authority Mike Taylors concerns re the balance of environmental and socio-economic impacts of cuts to water allocations aimed at rescuing rivers in the basin. Mike Taylor quit and Craig Knowles was installed as Chairman.
    Then enter Barnaby when Abbott was given Govt by Rudd and we have what we know have.

    They’ve all been a disaster.

    That’s better.

    Now if you start using your own words instead of cut and pasting, you’ll on your way to giving a considered opinion. 😆

  33. Water Thieves are the 21st century equivalent of Cattle Rustlers. They should be thrown in jail and the key flushed down the toilet while there’s still some water left to flush it with.

  35. lizzie @ #1681 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:11 pm

    Mike Carlton
    ‏@MikeCarlton01
    15m15 minutes ago

    While Premier @GladysB squanders billions on pulling down perfectly good sports stadiums and a hopelessly over-budget light rail system up George St, thousands of NSW kids and teachers sweltered today in 40 degree heat in classrooms without air conditioning. Priorities, anyone ?

    Priority is the right word, and the priority is obvious. Anyone with any remnant of a social conscience has to vote these con artists out, out black spots, state and federally, out out.

  38. I’m surprised some enterprising person hasn’t sabotaged the dams at places like Cubby – am in no way advocating such an action … but it is the sort of thing a ‘rainbow warrior’ type of action might do.

    It seems we are all constrained by law – except those who make them, of course.

  39. White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said she believes God wanted President Donald Trump to win the 2016 election

    I guess she also believes her god wants her to get up every day and lie to the world as best as she can in defense of that creep?

  40. I heard that too Lizzie – as climate changes, people will get desperate … and humanity has become like an uncontrolled virus that is fouling its host, and using all its resources.

    And like uncontrolled viruses, it will eventually starve or need to mutate.

  41. I remember. I cursed Tony Burke at the time. We needed 7000gls. 4000GLs was barely enough. SA got allocated 2750gls. The river and SA would have to make do.

    We built a desal plant.

    The irrigators stole even that tiny allowance
    Am I bitter? Lets say sscaffolds along the Murray is not enough.

  42. That’s the problem a r religious nutters believe their god will rescue them (they are righteous, after all).

    THis is one reason why the Abbotts of this world are not willing to do anything about climate change.

  43. ItzaDream @ #1675 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:09 pm

    @P1

    The books arrived! It is totally up my alley. I am massively impressed and thank you kindly for the tip off.

    Hope you like it! As I said before – one for dipping in and out of, not reading like a novel!

    Just today I also bought (second hand, $5 in a Kings Cross op shop) The Coming of Strangers – Life in Australia 1788-1822, a bicentennial publication by Baiba Berzins (State Library of NSW). From Anne Summers’ forward: Those who left no written record: The Aboriginal people; white women and convicts, have been brought forward to the foreground to give a balanced perspective …

    I see this is available on abebooks – just ordered!

  45. jenauthor
    says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 4:21 pm
    That’s the problem a r religious nutters believe their god will rescue them (they are righteous, after all).
    _______________________________
    Careful Jen, Briefly and C@t will attack you for calling people ‘religious nutters’. 🙂

  47. The Clementine Ford situation reminds me of an old Soviet joke.

    A man shouting ‘Leonid Brezhnev is a moron’ was arrested in Red Square . Taken to court he was sentenced to 16 years exile in Siberia. One year for insulting the office of President. Fifteen years for revealing State secrets.

  49. Player One @ #1693 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:21 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1675 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:09 pm

    @P1

    The books arrived! It is totally up my alley. I am massively impressed and thank you kindly for the tip off.

    Hope you like it! As I said before – one for dipping in and out of, not reading like a novel!

    Just today I also bought (second hand, $5 in a Kings Cross op shop) The Coming of Strangers – Life in Australia 1788-1822, a bicentennial publication by Baiba Berzins (State Library of NSW). From Anne Summers’ forward: Those who left no written record: The Aboriginal people; white women and convicts, have been brought forward to the foreground to give a balanced perspective …

    I see this is available on abebooks – just ordered!

    Ditto – hope you like it!

  50. poroti says: Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 4:27 pm

    The Clementine Ford situation reminds me of an old Soviet joke.

    A man shouting ‘Leonid Brezhnev is a moron’ was arrested in Red Square . Taken to court he was sentenced to 16 years exile in Siberia. One year for insulting the office of President. Fifteen years for revealing State secrets.

    ****************************************************

    Gosh Poroti – that post will get you life in the ‘Black Dolphin’

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