Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Dio and Itza
    Thankyou altho just reading your posts gives me shivers. The thought of a GA is scarier for me so I had to give reasons why – 2 rather dramatic events years ago. Surgeon seemed OK and as we are new to the area I’ve relied on GP. It’s being done on 12th.

    I really need to steel my mind to a local. Is it like the twilight zone for a colonoscopy? If so, i’ll cope. Hate the thought of making a fool of myself.
    #medsonPB

  2. jenauthor

    humanity has become like an uncontrolled virus that is fouling its host, and using all its resources.

    A superbly apt metaphor.

  3. The new Performing Arts Centre at the 40k a year Geelong Grammar features
    automation features including:
    Main forum air conditioning adaptive air flow control dependent on forum use (Assembly, Performance or Dinner).
    Demand controlled ventilation and economy cycle.
    Variable speed drive control of fans and pumps.
    Energy monitoring.
    Native BACnet Alerton BMS with high level integration to HVAC equipment.

  4. Barney in Go Dau @ #1697 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 3:28 pm

    PuffyTMD @ #1695 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 12:24 pm

    Lizzie
    Can’t have public school kids in air conditioning. They need to toughen up for a life of servitude and poverty.

    IIRC if it got above a certain temperature we were sent home.

    What’s wrong with that?

    Leading question. 😉
    (1) With global warming the “certain temperature” would have to regularly increased to not run out of teaching days.
    (2) We could walk home back then and mum would be there. With so many parents working it probably wouldn’t work.

    I remember one day in primary school the temperature reached 104F. School was cancelled but we weren’t allowed to go home because that was too hot and most of us had to walk/bike a couple of miles in the sun. But the school was two storey with classrooms up top and open underneath, just three sides enclosed against the weather. Activities were organised. When school finished we went home.

  5. On Clementine Ford and the “new” policy to respect the office of prime minister, first question, why was this policy not in place when media referred to Julia Gillard being put in a chaff bag and dropped at sea? Was she less dignified than our current Prime Muppett?

    Second question, why give any respect to the “office of prime minister”? The PM is not the head of state. Constitutionally the PM is merely a go between from the GG to parliament. The office is an invention. It is no more deserving of respect than any MP.

    Glad I dumped Fairfax to subscribe to the Guardian and Crikey.

  6. PuffyTMD @ #1695 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 12:24 pm

    Lizzie
    Can’t have public school kids in air conditioning. They need to toughen up for a life of servitude and poverty.

    Gladys has been under pressure regarding air conditioning in public schools for some time. However she has preferred to concentrate on stadiums and toll roads.

  7. BH
    Yes it’s much the same as the sedation for a colonoscopy although the time you need sedation for is much less with a CTR because it’s really only when the local is injected that you need to be asleep. It’s a very quick, simple and effective operation.

  8. lizzie @ #1707 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 12:42 pm

    Barney

    I’m sure you’ve heard of helicopter parents. And 4-wheel drives just to cart them a few hundred metres. 😉

    Yeah, it’s one thing that amazes me when I come home and go around mates houses.

    I regularly sit back and silently shake my head when I hear what they go through for their kids and then remember what we did when we were their ages. 😆

  9. @bugwannostra
    29m29 minutes ago

    The IPA isn’t a charity yet it is given that status. The IPA has 21 current federal politicians. Who do they represent? The people who fund them…
    What does it cost these wealthy people? Absolutely nothing all, tax deductible. What do they get? 21 votes on every bill of interest!

  10. BH @ #1701 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:32 pm

    Dio and Itza

    Is it like the twilight zone for a colonoscopy?

    Yes. Except, the level of sedation for a colonoscopy is often quite ‘deep’ (colonoscopies can be very ‘stimulating’ triggering unwanted body movements etc), whereas for carpal tunnel, sensation will be blocked by the local anaesthetic, so nothing is ‘felt’, and less sedation is needed, just enough to help you relax. Most are ‘rousable’, enough to reply to “How’s things BH” with “Fine, have you started yet?” and then drift back off to sleep, and swear unconsciousness when nought is remembered. Way to go! No, people do not give away family secrets or blurt out embarrassments.

  11. BH, I’m no expert but in my limited experience a local with a sedative for the nerves worked for me when I had the “snip” job. Dio can give his opinion about the difference, so try to relax and keep happy thoughts, won’t know yourself in a couple of weeks.

  12. lizzie @ #1719 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 12:52 pm

    @bugwannostra
    29m29 minutes ago

    The IPA isn’t a charity yet it is given that status. The IPA has 21 current federal politicians. Who do they represent? The people who fund them…
    What does it cost these wealthy people? Absolutely nothing all, tax deductible. What do they get? 21 votes on every bill of interest!

    Well at least we know WHAT they represent!

  13. Thanks Nath. I hear they charge a pretty penny for the ol’ Native BACnet Alerton BMS with high level integration to HVAC equipment.

    $10k for a Daikin unit..

  14. Respecting the office per se delivers fools who respect Trump, because POTUS.

    I dropped Fairfax the day 9 and Costello rode into town.

  15. Puff

    I find it so hard to believe that the politicians ignored the scientists and supported the irrigators instead of the river. There was a massive push against the science.

  16. Cat

    Don’t they call their promotion rule the “Peter (Costello) Principle”?

    I was also thinking further about this story that bankers are bracing for prosecutions from the RC report. If true, how do they know? It hasn’t been released. Have they seen it?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-31/banking-industry-bracing-for-27live-possibility27-royal-commi/10766012

    I had assumed the guvurnmint was holding onto it to give time to prepare their own face saving response when releasing it. But what if the time is to allow their paymasters to do the same?

  17. Shellbell

    I was told I could add lemon cordial or something. It wasn’t the taste, it was the sheer volume. Not being a beer drinker, I failed the last litre or so.

  18. Hi again

    I posted earlier about Labor’s tax policies and then got dragged away, so I was unable to respond to subsequent comments, which were more or less what I expected: these are much-needed reforms, Labor shouldn’t sneak its way into government with a small target strategy but stand up for what it believes in, if the Australian people are stupid enough to vote Liberal because of these policies then they deserve what they get, etc., etc.

    I beg to differ, particularly in relation to the dividend imputation changes. This is not an issue that had ever received a lot of consideration at a political level prior to Shorten and Bowen raising it last year. In the past, it had been a bipartisan policy: Labor was strongly supportive of it when it was introduced by Howard, almost to the point of claiming that it was their idea which the Libs had stolen from Labor. It was introduced with the goal of giving self-funded retirees with no other taxable income than share dividends a similar benefit to that enjoyed by wage and salary earners who own shares. While I don’t think that was a strong enough reason for the government to forego so much revenue don’t think it’s by any means the worst rort going around (eg, compared to income-splitting through family trusts).

    There are a lot of self-funded retirees who are going to be affected by this who, while you and I might perceive them as being relatively well off if not rich, perceive themselves to be battlers. These people have brothers and sisters and sons and daughters. All together they represent a sizeable constituency of disaffected people.

    The smart political move would have been to drop the policy last year, or at least to promise to grandparent it for shares bought before a certain date. Instead, Bowen has told disaffected people to go and vote Liberal if they wish. With all due respect to Bowen – of whom I’m generally a fan – this seems to me to have been a bit of a gaffe. It’s certainly given the Libs and the unsupportive elements of the media a quote to use against him over and over again in future.

    It doesn’t seem to me that anything of enormous policy significance hangs on this issue. I’d rank it way below things like climate change, banking reform, stimulating wages growth and even (though I’m far from supportive of them), Labor’s proposed changes to neg gearing and CGT.

    There’s a risk that the debate on the issue is just going to drag on and on and put more and more pressure on Labor until they are forced to back down. IMO, it would have been best for them to drop it last year when Turnbull was dumped. It’s possibly not too late to drop it now. There’s a significant risk and relatively little political reward in persevering with it .

  19. nath

    Pretty sure that our local Performance Centre, paid for by the Rudd/Gillard government, and used by three local schools, has most of those. They’re pretty standard in the school buildings provided under the GFC program.

  20. The list of preselection candidates for Higgins is out, btw. No sign of Peter Costello.

    His old spinal condition must be playing up.

  21. Shit!!

    SPECULATORS are flooding into the Murray Darling Basin’s irrigation markets, snapping up water in the midst of drought, as temporary water prices surge to $700 a megalitre on the Murrumbidgee system and $500 on the Murray.

    Investment company Duxton Water has spent $16.4 million siphoning an estimated 64,500ML out of the allocation (temporary) market, from last April to September last year, and has lifted its permanent entitlement holdings to 61,000ML.

    The trades mean Duxton has up to 125,500ML to hold or play into the allocation market this 2018-19 season, where prices have surged from $175/ML last June.

    Irrigators fear Duxton and other investment companies, such as Blue Sky and Aware, are having a major impact on southern Murray Darling Basin’s water markets, given just 660,000ML has been traded in allocation water so far this 2018-19 season. Duxton Water has gained the greatest attention, given its shift from simply holding permanent entitlements to buying large volumes of irrigators’ allocation water.

    https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/irrigation-water-prices-spike-as-speculators-buy-up-big/news-story/51405cb21b36dc8d59e4f7b0877a12c9

  22. lizzie says:

    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 4:57 pm
    Puff

    I find it so hard to believe that the politicians ignored the scientists and supported the irrigators instead of the river.

    If you ask how much money scientists donate to the Nats and how much irrigators $donate$ to the Barnyards of the world then it is easy peasy.

  23. Still remember the crisis of being at the “tail end” of the pre-colonscopy purge while needing to supervise a child and her friend at the park.

    Clench a little, sweat a bit more and pray a lot.

  24. ‘rob harris

    Verified account

    @rharris334
    41m41 minutes ago
    More
    Eight nominations for Liberal preselection in Higgins: Katie Allen, Jane Bell, Margaret Fitzherbert, Michael Flynn, Greg Hannan, Jeremy Hearn, Karen Massier and Zoe McKenzie..’

  25. zoomster says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 5:00 pm

    nath

    Pretty sure that our local Performance Centre, paid for by the Rudd/Gillard government, and used by three local schools, has most of those. They’re pretty standard in the school buildings provided under the GFC program.
    ________________________________
    Do you know if they keep stats on public school with/or without air conditioning in classrooms. at my school the only room with air condition was the computer room. but that was 20 years ago I suppose. It was incredibly hard to study in February, I remember that.

  26. lizzie @ #1727 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    Puff

    I find it so hard to believe that the politicians ignored the scientists and supported the irrigators instead of the river. There was a massive push against the science.

    If anything good can come out this, this could be it.

    It highlights how dismissing science can quickly bite you on the bum.

    Any politician dismissing scientific consensus should be met with the words “Murray-Darling” and told to shut up.

  27. zoomster @ #1740 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    ‘rob harris

    Verified account

    @rharris334
    41m41 minutes ago
    More
    Eight nominations for Liberal preselection in Higgins: Katie Allen, Jane Bell, Margaret Fitzherbert, Michael Flynn, Greg Hannan, Jeremy Hearn, Karen Massier and Zoe McKenzie..’

    Anyone out of Michael, Greg and Jeremy sound good! 😆

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