Departure lounge

The retirement of another senior Liberal in a loseable seat, and a poll suggesting Labor could pull off a boilover in Higgins.

The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.

There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Departure lounge”

Comments Page 21 of 31
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  1. The biggest swings against the Liberals will be in their hitherto safest seats. Lib-leaning voters want their party back. They will get rid of the dinosaurs.

  2. Confessions @ #992 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 1:39 pm

    GG:

    What did your wife do?

    My wife is a volunteer/co-ordinator do everythinger for a outreach service in our Church which provides social involvement programs for mentally disabled adults.

    She’s also a cracker of fundraiser and knows how to write proposals to access Council and Government grants that just make life better for people that are trying to make life better for others.

    There’s more. But, you’ll get the gist!

  4. Ditto from me GG – it is heartening when the ‘unheralded’ get the gongs rather than the high flyers! Tell your wife I applaud her work.

  7. GG:

    She sounds like a go-getter. I’m guessing from responses that she won an award, if so it sounds like it was richly deserved.

  9. I haven’t had a stab at the ‘next to declare’ sweep – I’d love it to be Laundy here in Reid because Sam Crosby will make an excellent MP and Laundy going would make that easier (am hoping Sam will win either way).

    I do suspect, however, the next name to pop up will be someone totally unexpected (it is how things keep happening with Morrison).

  10. Greensborough Growler says: Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 1:50 pm

    GG:

    What did your wife do?

    My wife is a volunteer/co-ordinator do everythinger for a outreach service in our Church which provides social involvement programs for mentally disabled adults.

    ************************************************

    Explains a lot – Behind every great man there’s a GREAT woman 🙂

  12. Abbott will run the mother of all scare campaigns in Warringah. That’s all he knows.

    Steggall will have to have 3 word slogans ready to counter his 3 word slogans.

  13. Memo to ScoMo: the longer you put off the election the more time you give to groups like Voices for {Wherever}, Vote {Whoever} Out, etc to get organised, targeting people like Kevin Andrews, Craig Kelly, etc, with economically conservative but socially liberal candidates like Phelps, Steggal, etc. Won’t make any difference to the Labor victory (they’ll win 88-plus* seats anyway), but it will further reduce the number of “Liberal” Party MPs in favour of “sensible centre” people. To save your loony-right mates, better call the election now!

    Anyone with a couple of degrees of separation from ScoMo, please pass this on.

    *I’m down for 94 in the sweep. Still think it’ll be close to that.

  14. Confessions @ #990 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 1:37 pm

    C@tmomma @ #987 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 10:35 am

    torchbearer @ #977 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 1:26 pm

    Can the last woman to leave the LNP please do the dishes before switching off the light.

    That may be Lucy Wicks. Unless we can defeat her in Robertson she may be the last woman standing.

    The Member for Durack will be returned.

    And doesn’t that say everything about the state the Liberal Party are in? Especially with their women.

  18. Steggall will have to have 3 word slogans ready to counter his 3 word slogans.
    Just say no.
    No more Tony.
    Bye, bye Tony.
    Prime Minister Abbott
    Tony must go.
    etc.

  19. Thank you to one and all for the congrats.

    I personally appreciate the comments as does my wife.

    Cheers, one and all!

  23. steve davis says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 1:17 pm
    Isnt it an amazing turnaround from ‘Ditch the Witch’ and the so called dreaded carbon tax that was going to be the end of civilisation. But these people still won’t vote Labor.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    No, they won’t Steve. Still, if they can get Tony Abbott out it’ll be an improvement. Perhaps with more environmentally-sound conservatives, such as Stegall and Phelps, in Parliament, climate action may become more bipartisan, as it is in Europe. If that happens, we may still have enough time to ward some of the worst effects of climate change.

  24. I live in Reid too Jen and I think Craig Laundy will pull the pin soon, before the election.
    For a Tory, he’s not a bad bloke, I have met him a couple of times and he is relatively moderate. Doesn’t mind a bit of political, good humoured jousting.
    He lost a lot of interest and fight when Turnbull was knifed and would happily fit back in to his old mans pub empire.

  25. klasib @ #1019 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 1:16 pm

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/german-plan-to-phase-out-coal-would-cost-a-cool-64-billion-20190127-p50tx5.html

    Thanks for posting. I was reading this in German yesterday with many arguments made by workers dependent on mining income. Politically the arguments are still “robust”. But for me this is a key quote:

    German environmentalists had hoped for a plan that would end coal use by 2030, but said a less ambitious goal could be an acceptable trade-off for a consensus that would allow the aim to be achieved.

  28. Good to see the ABC beefing up its news and current affairs output with the Drum going back to an hour (not that I watch it) and Pat Karvelas (who I like) expanding her show as well.
    They must be banking on a labor win and an increase in funding.

  29. I was taken by this post in Fairfax:

    [‘jimmy4647
    2 HOURS AGO
    I have always been wary of Abbott for one particular reason

    And that was the way he has so often promoted himself
    Recall all those times he was in action with the RFS or the surf club”.There was often a film crew or a bunch of photographers on hand to record the great man doing his volunteer work

    always be wary of people who do voluntary work for some ulterior motive

    If somebodys going to help out in a soup kitchen or an opp shop,etc…its much better if its done quitely…..not under the glare of cameras…get the picture?

    Check out Abbott’s website,he even has a shot of himself,donned in his yellow gear holding a rather large hose…..as he fights a fire…….Fake or real?’]

  32. A belated “Well Done” to Mrs GG. And congratulations to GG as well, he obviously chose his spouse well. He must be a good bloke to get the approval of such a good person.

    I would love BK to receive some acknowledgement for his service to the community over an extended period.

  34. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 2:02 pm
    Abbott will run the mother of all scare campaigns in Warringah. That’s all he knows.

    Steggall will have to have 3 word slogans ready to counter his 3 word slogans.

    It is the 3-word mouthfuls that have driven voters away from the Liberals. They turn politics into trolling. Voters absolutely loathe it because it assumes they’re idiots.

    Abbott is a troll. Voters will deprive him of a podium. They will do so with great enthusiasm.

  35. Election in 2 parts coming up. In the seats near the centre of the pendulum, Labor vs COALition. In the LNP seats further up their side of the pendulum (or down, in some of the tabulated versions), COALition vs the newly emerging Green Right. Get the popcorn ready for election night…

  36. Laundy’s mind is definitely already back running daddy’s pubs. But I reckon he’s a pretty good chance of just having his name on the ballot without bothering to actually campaign or anything.

  39. Precisely Jack. In the seats where the government is made Labor will gain strong swings and scoop up the marginals (and a few not so marginals) to win handsomely.

    In the safest Liberal seats Labor will likely face large swings against them as voters vote tactically to get independents up.

    Safe or marginal, the incumbent Liberals will be fighting to hold almost every seat.

  40. Does Abbott still consider climate change to be ‘crap’?
    If he blurts that out of his cake hole again he’s well and truly rooted.

  41. One of the consequences of troll-politics is that voters stop listening to all messages. The Liberals have been trolling non-stop for a decade. They will have a lot of trouble getting voters to tune in to their themes. Voters will just assume they’re being trolled again when Lib-Radio is broadcasting. They will tune out.

  42. I would love BK to receive some acknowledgement for his service to the community over an extended period.
    ___
    Kambah Mick
    I have already had my turn. Yesterday three locals whom I had a hand in nominating received civic awards at an Australia Day ceremony.
    Every community has them and they usually are involved in more than one thing.

  43. Chris Kenny talks of the ‘Lunar Left’, but who’s really looney?

    Chris Kenny
    ‏@chriskkenny
    1h1 hour ago

    When you tout more energy madness and stand with Flannery but claim to be “sensible centre”! Lunar Left has lost its bearing. RT Olympian Steggall in bid to oust Abbott

  44. C@tmomma @ 11.06 am:

    Apologies for not responding earlier.
    Don’t want JB to retire/resign too early or it sends my fantasy totally into the ether and allows the WA”paleo Libs”, a delightful phrase used early this morning by briefly, to get organised.

  45. Prof Peter Strachan
    @ProfStrachan

    #France closing #Nuclear power plants. Plans to double #Renewables capacity under 10-year energy plan.

  46. steve davis,
    Put me down for McCormack.
    I know him well. His ego won’t withstand the thought of 10+ years in opposition. Even if he hangs on until the election he will gift Riverina voters a by-election by the end of the year.

  49. Barry ‘Scrap’ Tucker
    ‏@btckr
    4h4 hours ago

    Ch9 is promoting itself as “Your election channel.”
    Pffftt!

    Wh-aaa-aat!

  50. Ok my punt on the retirement stakes – sorry I can’t recall who is recorder (Steve Davis????)

    John Alexander (Bennelong)

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