Departure lounge

The retirement of another senior Liberal in a loseable seat, and a poll suggesting Labor could pull off a boilover in Higgins.

The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.

There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Departure lounge”

Comments Page 22 of 31
1 … 21 22 23 … 31

  2. lizzie @ #1042 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 2:48 pm

    Prof Peter Strachan
    @ProfStrachan

    #France closing #Nuclear power plants. Plans to double #Renewables capacity under 10-year energy plan.

    France is doing it right, replacing nuclear with renewables 🙂

    Germany did it wrong, closing their nuclear plants and instead burning more coal 🙁

  3. ‘We’ve considered our options’

    Liberal MP Dan Tehan says all of his Liberal colleagues have now ‘thought about their careers’, as PM loses three ministers.

    Another clueless fuckwit.

  7. Late Riser @ #1022 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 2:21 pm

    klasib @ #1019 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 1:16 pm

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/german-plan-to-phase-out-coal-would-cost-a-cool-64-billion-20190127-p50tx5.html

    Thanks for posting. I was reading this in German yesterday with many arguments made by workers dependent on mining income. Politically the arguments are still “robust”. But for me this is a key quote:

    German environmentalists had hoped for a plan that would end coal use by 2030, but said a less ambitious goal could be an acceptable trade-off for a consensus that would allow the aim to be achieved.

    “Besser später als nie!”

  9. I can’t understand why Warren Entsch wants to stick around. He’s achieved SSM (and hasn’t Australia gone to the dogs since that came in? Not.) and he’s no spring chicken, in charge of an electorate a long way from Canberra.

  10. ratsak says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 2:38 pm
    Precisely Jack. In the seats where the government is made Labor will gain strong swings and scoop up the marginals (and a few not so marginals) to win handsomely.

    In the safest Liberal seats Labor will likely face large swings against them as voters vote tactically to get independents up.

    Safe or marginal, the incumbent Liberals will be fighting to hold almost every seat.

    Voters will want to do two things….change the government and purge the Liberals. Labor will likely win 20-25 swing seats. Voters of all persuasions in safe-Lib seats where a viable Independent runs will coalesce around these candidates, as happened in Wentworth and as will occur in Warringah. In the absence of Independents, past-Lib voters will shift to Labor, as occurred in Victoria. There are very few ‘safe-Lib-held’ seats that will actually be safe in the coming election, which will be in large part a referendum on the incompetence, stupidity and arrogance of Liberal Party.

    If voters collectively form the view that this election is an opportunity to change politics, they will do it. They will seek to purge the place. The LNP could easily end up with fewer than 40 seats in the next Parliament. The more time that Independents have to organise themselves the more likely this is to happen. Morrison has chosen to have the election at a time that will least suit him. He is inviting a huge defeat.

  11. Has anyone considered the possibility that Craig Laundy may well be tossing up running for LOTO if he decides to stick around? And wins of course. 🙂

  12. klasib, exactly. And putting this into pragmatic political practice is the achievement. (Sorry. I’m a sucker for alliteration.)

  15. lizzie says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 2:44 pm
    Chris Kenny talks of the ‘Lunar Left’, but who’s really looney?

    Chris Kenny
    ‏@chriskkenny
    1h1 hour ago

    When you tout more energy madness and stand with Flannery but claim to be “sensible centre”! Lunar Left has lost its bearing. RT Olympian Steggall in bid to oust Abbott

    Faced with a rebellion, a Lib-Jaw attacks the rebels, insults and mocks them. This will incite further rebellion. Excellent.

  16. On paper Steggal should romp it in. The only risk is if she stuffs up on the campaign trail somehow.
    She is exactly the sort of candidate that the Liberals would have loved to recruit. She has the right policies, profile and back story.

    The fact is that Abbott actually does not represent the Liberal voters of his electorate. They may oppose Labor’s position on tax, unions, etc but they are generally well enough educated to know that coal has a limited and declining future and the anti-progressives like Abbott are actually working against their own financial interests.

    All Steggal needs to do is make it clear that Warringah needs to be represented by a real Liberal, not some troglodyte who just happens to have a lock on the Liberal Party nomination.

  17. C@tmomma @ #1056 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 2:56 pm

    I can’t understand why Warren Entsch wants to stick around. He’s achieved SSM (and hasn’t Australia gone to the dogs since that came in? Not.) and he’s no spring chicken, in charge of an electorate a long way from Canberra.

    Maybe his family have said they don’t want him to spend more time with them!

  18. Someone on Twitter said that the genealogy chart for Morrison doesn’t include the two convict ancestors in the published story.

    Perhaps the chart was made public before ScoMo needed to include convicts. So hard to know what to believe. In another decade he’d probably discover some Indigenous relatives as well.

  19. briefly @ #1057 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 2:57 pm

    ratsak says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 2:38 pm
    Precisely Jack. In the seats where the government is made Labor will gain strong swings and scoop up the marginals (and a few not so marginals) to win handsomely.

    In the safest Liberal seats Labor will likely face large swings against them as voters vote tactically to get independents up.

    Safe or marginal, the incumbent Liberals will be fighting to hold almost every seat.

    Voters will want to do two things….change the government and purge the Liberals. Labor will likely win 20-25 swing seats. Voters of all persuasions in safe-Lib seats where a viable Independent runs will coalesce around these candidates, as happened in Wentworth and as will occur in Warringah. In the absence of Independents, past-Lib voters will shift to Labor, as occurred in Victoria. There are very few ‘safe-Lib-held’ seats that will actually be safe in the coming election, which will be in large part a referendum on the incompetence, stupidity and arrogance of Liberal Party.

    If voters collectively form the view that this election is an opportunity to change politics, they will do it. They will seek to purge the place. The LNP could easily end up with fewer than 40 seats in the next Parliament. The more time that Independents have to organise themselves the more likely this is to happen. Morrison has chosen to have the election at a time that will least suit him. He is inviting a huge defeat.

    Predicting final outcomes is a mugs game. But I expect Labor will end up with 80-85 seats., Libs 50-60 and Independents up to 15.

  20. Player One

    With a target date they will be ramping down, if not straight away then starting soon. Without a target date they would continue as before. But since we’re just talking about generalities I don’t see how “never” can ever be better than “late”.

  21. So federal parliament is back in just over a week then?

    That should mean we get a poll or two upon the resumption, I imagine.

  24. C@tmomma,
    Re. Dr Joe.
    Rural indies are hard to unseat. More so if there’s a swing on against the LibNats.
    Labor’s Dan Hayes seems to fancy his chances. I don’t (although I must add that he’s a quality bloke).
    Libs aren’t standing a candidate. Former local Lib branch president Colin Taggart is standing for Bernardi’s party. Taggart is a Scot. An old school Tory Scot. Libs are pissed that their party isn’t running.
    Nats are running Mackenna Powell. Heaven forbid! A young women!
    Short answer: Dr Joe will hold Wagga Wagga.

  30. GG…. I think the writing’s on the wall for the LNP. There have been several real-poll tests…Wagga Wagga, Wentworth, Victoria. There is obviously a grass-roots driven revolt against the Liberals going on in Sydney. They failed abysmally in Longman. Fundraising by GetUp and volunteer support for anti-Lib campaigns is very strong. When door-knocking, Lib-leaning voters cannot bring themselves to even talk about politics at all. They give the appearance of being embarrassed by – even ashamed of – the Liberals. Voters will flee from them in their multitudes.

  31. Predicting final outcomes is a mugs game. But I expect Labor will end up with 80-85 seats., Libs 50-60 and Independents up to 15.

    15 Independents would be a seismic shift for the next parliament.

    It would totally change the dynamic.

    So many more voices to the debate that are independent of the vested interests/donors of the duopoly.

    Bring it on !

  33. Barry ‘Scrap’ Tucker
    ‏@btckr
    4h4 hours ago

    Ch9 is promoting itself as “Your election channel.”
    Pffftt!

    So is Murdoch’s Sky.

  34. In terms of Warringah – my recollection that Howard was PM and lost his seat … means Abbott’s bravado about his hold on his seat is rather hollow.

    Drastic swings in some seats are quite plausible – just as expected wins might not happen. Most of the latter I don’t care about but Dutton … Dutton HAS to go. I’m from NSW but I’d be tempted to campaign in Dixon if I was anywhere near there during the campaign. He is the singularly most dangerous pollie we have.

  35. The first Newspoll I recorded for 2018 (last year) was 2018 Feb 4, which was the 2nd Sunday after Australia Day. I’ll start recording for next Sunday. My guess is ALP 54/46 LNP.

  36. The election of a substantial number of Independents in formerly-safe-Lib seats will force the Liberals to re-think their policies, leadership, composition and strategies. Unless the Liberals respond to these pressures they will cede power to Labor for a very long time indeed.

  38. Late Riser @ #1067 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 3:10 pm

    Player One

    With a target date they will be ramping down, if not straight away then starting soon. Without a target date they would continue as before. But since we’re just talking about generalities I don’t see how “never” can ever be better than “late”.

    Yes, sure – in theory, “late” may be better than “never” …. but in this situation not by very much.

    Don’t forget it is the total greenhouse gas emissions that count, not when they are emitted. Emitting them next year is exactly as bad as emitting them this year. The only thing that makes any difference in this game is not emitting them at all.

    That means eliminating coal as fast as possible. Australia is not doing that, and neither is Germany.

    Once you get past 3 or 4 degrees warming (which some climate scientists think we have locked in already) the consequences are so unthinkable that any further warming after that becomes kind of academic – there will be very few people around to worry about it 🙁

  44. briefly @ #1076 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 3:19 pm

    GG…. I think the writing’s on the wall for the LNP. There have been several real-poll tests…Wagga Wagga, Wentworth, Victoria. There is obviously a grass-roots driven revolt against the Liberals going on in Sydney. They failed abysmally in Longman. Fundraising by GetUp and volunteer support for anti-Lib campaigns is very strong. When door-knocking, Lib-leaning voters cannot bring themselves to even talk about politics at all. They give the appearance of being embarrassed – even ashamed – of the Liberals. Voters will flee from them in their multitudes.

    Agree. But, this spate of Liberal Independents are all addressing the concerns of the traditional Liberal electorate as expressed by Kelly O’Dwyer regarding “homophobic, anti woman climate change deniers”. So, I can see action on these areas while Labor’s broader economic program may have difficulties in the Senate.

    Labor will do well in traditional outer suburban marginal seats. But these Lib Independent women may take the gloss off a whopping majority with over 90 seats.

  45. In 47 years, according to my count, Labor’s wrested government from the Tories on three occasions:

    1972 – (125 seats) – 2.50% swing – net gain, 8 seats

    1983 – (125 seats) – 3.6% swing – net gain, 24 seats

    2007 – (150 seats) – 5.44% swing – net gain, 23 seats

    According to BludgerTrack, the swing to Labor is 4.1%, with a gain of 22 seats. In the three elections cited there was a definite mood for change. I don’t quite get the same vibe for the coming election. It seems to me that it’s more a case the electorate wanting to punish the Tories for being so stupid by dumping Turnbull rather than rewarding Labor. Indeed, in normal circumstances, a government with reasonable economic indicia (save for wage growth & debt) would be expected to win an election.

    Morrison will little doubt attempt to buy votes with handouts. He’ll also go to town on capital gains, dividend imputation, negative gearing. These issues could have an effect once the election’s announced. And, history shows that the gap between the major’s narrows in the lead-up to an election. All things considered, Labor should win the election – how handsomely is dependant upon how well it can sell its policies, noting that some of the foreshadowed changes are not easily explained. Bowen especially will be under a great deal of pressure to clearly articulate Labor’s tax policies, noting that the 1993 election was lost through Hewson’s inability to explain what part of a cake would be GST exempt.

  48. Mavis Smith @ #742 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 3:31 pm

    …..

    …All things considered, Labor should win the election – how handsomely is dependant upon how well it can sell its policies, noting that some of the foreshadowed changes are not easily explained. Bowen especially will be under a great deal of pressure to clearly articulate Labor’s tax policies, noting that the 1993 election was lost through Hewson’s inability to explain what part of a cake would be GST exempt.

    I agree.

    With Shorten and Bowen as the main sellers of the message, I think Independents will do well.

  50. John Howard has apparently announced he will be steering Gladys Berajelkians campaign as a pre-cursor to the Federal campaign!

Comments Page 22 of 31
1 … 21 22 23 … 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *