Leadership ratings revisited

Picking apart personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings in the Morrison era.

BludgerTrack’s leadership approval and preferred prime ministership readings have been in limbo since last August’s leadership change, since it was necessary to accumulate a certain amount of data before Morrison-era trends could usefully be generated. I have now finally got around to doing something about this, the results of which can be found through the link below:

This exercise has to contend with the very substantial idiosyncrasies of the various pollsters, of which three produce data that can meaningfully be compared with each other: Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos (there are also a handful of small-sample Morgan results in the mix). This is done by calculating a trend exclusively from Newspoll, determining the other pollsters’ average deviations from that trend, and adjusting their results accordingly. For whatever reason, Newspoll appears to be a particularly tough marker, which means the other pollsters are adjusted very substantially downwards on approval and upwards on disapproval:

Ipsos Essential
PM approval -11.0% -3.1%
PM disapproval +8.9% +8.6%
OL approval -5.5% -1.0%
OL disapproval +2.4% +9.5%
PM preferred -4.8% -0.3%

“PM preferred” refers to the size of the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader in preferred prime minister polling – so Ipsos, for example, records relatively large leads for the Prime Minister in comparison with Newspoll, and is adjusted accordingly.

The job of charting trendlines through the spread of results is complicated by some notable outliers at around the time of the leadership transition. Malcolm Turnbull’s critics on the right are very keen on an Ipsos poll conducted over the last week of his prime ministership, as it is the only evidence polling has to offer that the Coalition’s present dismal position is not entirely down to the avoidable disaster of Turnbull’s removal. After a period of fairly consistent 51-49 results from all pollsters, this poll found Labor’s lead blowing out to 55-45 – and Malcolm Turnbull down nine on approval and up ten on disapproval. However, the BludgerTrack trend is not overly responsive to single poll results, so it records no sudden decline at the end of Turnbull’s tenure – only the levelling off an improving trend going back to late 2017.

Immediately after the leadership change, two pollsters posed questions on preferred prime minister, though not leadership approval. These produced very different results – a 39-33 lead for Bill Shorten from Newspoll, and a 39-29 lead for Scott Morrison from Essential. Newspoll is given a heavier weighting than Essential, so the trend follows its lead in finding Shorten with a very short-lived lead immediately after the leadership change. However, none of the fifteen poll results have replicated a lead for Shorten, so it is entirely possible that the Newspoll result was an outlier and the lead never existed in the first place.

The bigger picture is that Scott Morrison started well on net approval, but has now settled in roughly where Malcolm Turnbull was in his final months; that he is under-performing Turnbull on preferred prime minister; and that Bill Shorten’s net rating, while still not great, has been on a steady upward path since the leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,082 comments on “Leadership ratings revisited”

Comments Page 2 of 42
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  1. Government continues to spin while CSIRO acknowledges the algal blooms in the MDB is a man-made disaster ….

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-09/menindee-mass-fish-deaths-spark-blame-game/10699734

    The CSIRO said increased river regulation and restricted flows over past decades had seen the number of algal blooms increase in the Murray-Darling Basin.

    “It’s hard for me to comment on government policy but you would like to see regular flows occurring so you can get flushing of the system,” senior principal research scientist Grant Douglas said.

    But thank goodness the cotton farmers have enough water! 🙁

  2. Shellbell

    Could that case be shuffled up the queue due to its importance re ‘national security’ or is it doomed to wait in line with the rest of them ?

  3. Morning bludgers

    Thanks BK and Phoenix!

    C@t

    Poroti continues to do an impersonation of Glen Greenwald where the Trump saga is concerned.
    Sad really

  6. “The ACT is not exactly the Speedy Gonzales of the Australian legal system.
    The prosecution of Witness K and Collaery will take forever to even be started.
    It will dribble on and off for years.”

    Surely it would be discontinued by a competent AG, in the national interest, if not in the interests, you know of justice.

  8. I voted for Dutton, Porter and Hastie. Couldn’t give a damn about Abbott. Love to see him voted out but he’s damaging to the Liberal Party if he stays. Same for Kelly. Porter and Hastie are the upcoming threats to our democracy so the further they are away from Parliament, the better.

  9. poroti

    Doubt it. The pre-prosecution stuff was a saga in its own right. Why would the Chief Magistrate order the case to be given a priority over the other day to day work of the court?

    Every hearing day will be partially consumed by secrecy issues etc

    If it clears committal ie a magistrate says there is a case to be tried, it goes to the Supreme Court which, fortunately, is a little speedier than it once it was.

  14. Scott MorrisonVerified account@ScottMorrisonMP
    1h1 hour ago
    Message to my Department (PM&C): I didn’t ask for the shoeshine, but if you must Photoshop, please focus on the hair (lack thereof), not the feet!
    Here they are in all their glory – my footwear of choice whenever I can get out of a suit.

    :large

  15. Peter FitzSimonsVerified account@Peter_Fitz
    28m28 minutes ago
    How very odd. Just took a polite but firm call from the Prime Minister’s Office, pointing out that the one responsible for #shoegate was not social media team, but the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. Glad that is sorted!
    #auspol

  17. Rantt Media
    ‏
    @RanttMedia
    43m43 minutes ago

    Manafort gave 2016 polling data to Kilimnik and discussed a Ukraine Peace plan (a way to lift Russian sanctions).

    Russia’s propaganda had sophisticated voter targeting.

    Cohen and Sater later gave a Ukraine Peace plan to Flynn.

    The dots are connecting.

  18. a r

    With Trump being ‘convicted’ so many times already but still walking about you could say he already is in that cell ‘ constructed entirely out of nothingburgers. ‘ 😉

    Oh and C@t, don’t forget the Diet Coke, it is the other 50% of his diet.

  19. News Breakfast
    ‏
    Federal Health Minister @GregHuntMP says if Saudi teen Rahaf Alqunun is assessed to be a refugee, Australia will give “very, very, very serious consideration to a humanitarian visa”

    How many ‘very’ does it need to convince us he’s speaking the truth? 😆

  20. And from the evil Tory Mensch, who among others believes failure to redact was on purpose

    Show this thread
    Louise Mensch
    Louise Mensch
    @LouiseMensch
    ·
    35m
    5 and final – the Ukrainian peace plan is absolutely key.
    @MichaelCohen212
    continued this, with Russian intelligence, after
    @RealDonaldTrump
    was elected.

    Chris Steele’s raw intelligence dossier is sustained directly and indirectly by these redactions.
    Show this thread
    Louise Mensch
    Louise Mensch
    @LouiseMensch
    ·
    35m
    4. The redactions, seen in this light, continue to bolster the Steele Dossier.
    They show that OSC is demanding redaction on broadly the same actions, taken by Manafort, as Steele says were taken by Cohen – hacking help from Russian intelligence in exchange for sanctions relief
    Show this thread
    Louise Mensch
    Louise Mensch
    @LouiseMensch
    ·
    35m
    3. What are the cumulative implications of those redactions?

    a) that Manafort continued to act for Trump
    b) that in that capacity he received polling help from Russian intelligence
    c) in exchange for the same sanctions relief on Ukraine Cohen was working on

    That’s collusion.
    Show this thread
    Louise Mensch
    Louise Mensch
    @LouiseMensch
    ·
    39m
    2. The no doubt deliberate fauxdactions warn others what OSC wants hidden.

    Important in that they show what OSC is presently trying to redact:

    1. A meeting in Spain with the GRU
    2. About the Ukr plan
    3. Handed Trump polling data over
    4. Ongoing contacts w Trump campaign
    Show this thread
    Louise Mensch
    Louise Mensch
    @LouiseMensch
    ·
    43m
    Note: the fauxdacted #Manafort filings say that Manafort met the GRU in Spain to discuss a “Ukranian peace plan”.

    You know who else worked on a “Ukranian peace plan”?

    Michael Cohen.

  23. In a similar vein, “How many ‘very’ does it need to convince us he’s speaking the truth?”

    In Greg Hunt’s case you’d need to use scientific notation.

    He would have been my third pick for booting out, but his margin is probably too comfortable.

  25. The chicks grow quickly, fledging into their flight feathers and undertaking their first migration all the way to Australia at only six weeks old. They flap the whole way: shorebirds aren’t gliding or soaring birds. And they’re not water birds: they can’t swim. If they become exhausted and crash into the ocean, they drown. An eastern curlew can live for 20 years: by the time it dies it may have flown nearly 400,000km.

    But fewer eastern curlews are reaching old age. The global population has crashed by 80% in the past 30 years. The intertidal mudflats that they need to fuel their epic migrations are increasingly home instead to factories, and ports, and farms. And marinas: as the ABC’s Background Briefing reported, Toondah Harbour 30km east of Brisbane is the subject of a development proposal that would turn vital Ramsar-listed eastern curlew habitat into “residential, retail, marina development, hotel, port facilities and tourism infrastructure”.

    Although we love the coast, we love only a very specific kind of coast: golden sandy beaches and deep blue bays. Shallow seas over vast mudflats don’t catch our imagination, or our hearts, regardless of how rich the ecosystem of invertebrates and birds they sustain is. But the threats that eastern curlews are facing right now demand that we re-assess what we value.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/08/eastern-curlews-are-a-miracle-of-nature-and-they-are-disappearing-fast?CMP=share_btn_tw

  26. Apropos the discussion of the Windschuttle problem (aka Black Armband Heresy) of a couple of days ago, this stale pale male (carefully owning myself in the third person to avoid not speaking for others with a careless we) recommends the replay of the interesting Late Night Live interview with Robin DiAngelo on the subject of her 2017 book on White Fragility.

  29. White House uber warmonger John Bolton will have choked on his wheaties reading this. Definitely not used to being spoken to like this after ‘laying down the law’ to an ally.

    Nordic Monitor
    @nordicmonitor
    #Turkey demands the US vacate all 16 military bases in #Syria and collect all the weapons provided to Syrian Kurds, says #Erdogan’s spox Ibrahim Kalin after meeting with US National Security advisor
    @AmbJohnBolton
    in Turkish capital.
    https://twitter.com/nordicmonitor/status/1082633422714085377

  30. Warren Buffett eats at McDonalds almost every day. But he also owns a chunk of McDonalds and a big chunk of Coca Cola so I guess he’s recycling his money.

  32. @DaveWeasel tweets

    Cliff Notes predictions for Propaganda Bowl 2019:

    -Wall = Good (for re-election talking point)

    -Mexicans, Democrats, and Rosie O’Donnell = Bad

  33. A Trump-Russia Collusion Primer In 6 Minutes

    Over the last few years, a clear picture of the potential conspiracy between Trump and Putin has crystallized. It’s the most consequential story of greed and treachery in presidential history. And it didn’t end after election day…

    “It turns out that the United Russia has won the elections in the United States!” — then-Russian Governor Viktor Nazarov, November 9th, 2016

    The day was November 9th, 2016. The mood was joyous in the Kremlin as President Vladimir Putin, along with Russian officials, celebrated the election of Donald J. Trump as 45th President of the United States. Champagne was reportedly popped and toasts were made, as this foreign adversary celebrated American democracy. Why?

    After documenting every day of the Trump presidency and covering the story of a potential conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russian government for years, a great number of dots have connected. There is a great deal of circumstantial evidence of collusion between members of the Trump campaign and the Russian government. There are also direct communications that prove the Trump campaign was very receptive to Russia’s efforts to help candidate Trump. What we don’t publicly have yet is the smoking gun that proves there was a formal agreement to commit the criminal conspiracy and how much Trump knew about it. But Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s work is far from over and we don’t know the full extent of what’ he’s uncovered…yet. Based on Mueller’s indictments, all available reporting, and public records, here’s a 6-minute-read of the important facts related to the Trump campaign’s collusion with Russia, including my theory on the potential quid pro quo:

    https://rantt.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-trump-russia-collusion/

    Fantastic read. Cuts through the Trump FUD to lay the links out clearly.

  34. poroti @ #79 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 8:50 am

    #Turkey demands the US vacate all 16 military bases in #Syria and collect all the weapons provided to Syrian Kurds, says #Erdogan’s spox Ibrahim Kalin after meeting with US National Security advisor

    Quaint that Turkey thinks it has the authority to demand anything about what happens inside the borders of…not-Turkey.

  36. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 8:48 am
    Peter Stanton,
    The Coalition tried something similar under Howard, coincidentally when he looked to be losing the election to Rudd Labor. Back around the time of ‘Dolly’ Dunn. It was found to be unconstitutional to do it, but it sure does excite the base!

    There is little that is original in what passes for thought in conservatives.

  39. C@tmomma
    says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 9:55 am
    A Trump-Russia Collusion Primer In 6 Minutes
    _______________________________
    There was no collusion. The whole Mueller thing will only ensnare people around Trump for stupid things they did. Putin had no influence on the election which was so marginal in so many states that it would be impossible to enact. The fact is that Trump can be beaten at the next election, concentrate your energies on that outcome.

  41. a r @ #84 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 5:55 am

    poroti @ #79 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 8:50 am

    #Turkey demands the US vacate all 16 military bases in #Syria and collect all the weapons provided to Syrian Kurds, says #Erdogan’s spox Ibrahim Kalin after meeting with US National Security advisor

    Quaint that Turkey thinks it has the authority to demand anything about what happens inside the borders of…not-Turkey.

    The problem is that the US, Russia and China does! 🙁

  42. Lizzie,
    Toondah Harbour is exactly why we need a new federal EPA and Environment Act. It is insane that the development plans there have gotten this far with such internationally significant and protected areas in and adjacent to the proposed development.

    If anyone has any doubt about the way developers and their lackeys in governments and government departments weasel their way around the laws I suggest they read the first Q&A on this site…
    https://haveyoursay.dsdmip.qld.gov.au/toondah-harbour

    Extract;

    Q; Any further development to the wetlands at Toondah will negatively impact the very fragile and weak migratory birds when they return from Siberia and Alaska. I ask how this has progressed to this stage? There is multilayered international protections in place. Why is the council even considering this development ?

    A; …development should seek to avoid, then minimise and mitigate impacts arising from development… While Council and the Queensland Government support development at Toondah Harbour… this support is contingent on the Walker Group being able to demonstrate development recognises and responds to the ecological attributes of the area

    ‘SHOULD seek to avoid and minimise’? FFS!
    ‘recognise and respond’? FMD!

  43. Peter Stanton,
    Derryn Hinch is overjoyed he has finally got his Paedophile and Sex Offenders Register. The constitutional problem comes with publishing the addresses of the people on the Register. It can also lead to mistaken identity if the person who is on the register and has an address published has moved. Then you end up with innocent people being harassed by mobs of vigilantes. Their reputation in the community is shredded.

    So, maybe a list of names and photos but I can’t see that addresses will fly.

  45. nath @ #89 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 9:59 am

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 9:55 am
    A Trump-Russia Collusion Primer In 6 Minutes
    _______________________________
    There was no collusion. The whole Mueller thing will only ensnare people around Trump for stupid things they did. Putin had no influence on the election which was so marginal in so many states that it would be impossible to enact. The fact is that Trump can be beaten at the next election, concentrate your energies on that outcome.

    So you didn’t even read it before you rushed into ‘No Collusion’ mode?

    O….K….

    Anyway, unlike you it seems I can both keep up with the facts of the matter and do my bit to work towards the defeat of Trump at the 2020 election, if he is still around then.

  46. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 9:31 am
    News Breakfast
    ‏
    Federal Health Minister @GregHuntMP says if Saudi teen Rahaf Alqunun is assessed to be a refugee, Australia will give “very, very, very serious consideration to a humanitarian visa”

    How many ‘very’ does it need to convince us he’s speaking the truth?

    i doubt that there are enough verys in the world.

  47. ar

    Quaint that Turkey thinks it has the authority to demand anything about what happens inside the borders of…not-Turkey.

    It is indeed. A little something it picked up from the US 🙂

  48. If we are going to have registers of sex offenders we can have one for Domestic Violence too.

    Anything to increase Dutton’s surveillance state database.

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