Leadership ratings revisited

Picking apart personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings in the Morrison era.

BludgerTrack’s leadership approval and preferred prime ministership readings have been in limbo since last August’s leadership change, since it was necessary to accumulate a certain amount of data before Morrison-era trends could usefully be generated. I have now finally got around to doing something about this, the results of which can be found through the link below:

This exercise has to contend with the very substantial idiosyncrasies of the various pollsters, of which three produce data that can meaningfully be compared with each other: Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos (there are also a handful of small-sample Morgan results in the mix). This is done by calculating a trend exclusively from Newspoll, determining the other pollsters’ average deviations from that trend, and adjusting their results accordingly. For whatever reason, Newspoll appears to be a particularly tough marker, which means the other pollsters are adjusted very substantially downwards on approval and upwards on disapproval:

Ipsos Essential
PM approval -11.0% -3.1%
PM disapproval +8.9% +8.6%
OL approval -5.5% -1.0%
OL disapproval +2.4% +9.5%
PM preferred -4.8% -0.3%

“PM preferred” refers to the size of the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader in preferred prime minister polling – so Ipsos, for example, records relatively large leads for the Prime Minister in comparison with Newspoll, and is adjusted accordingly.

The job of charting trendlines through the spread of results is complicated by some notable outliers at around the time of the leadership transition. Malcolm Turnbull’s critics on the right are very keen on an Ipsos poll conducted over the last week of his prime ministership, as it is the only evidence polling has to offer that the Coalition’s present dismal position is not entirely down to the avoidable disaster of Turnbull’s removal. After a period of fairly consistent 51-49 results from all pollsters, this poll found Labor’s lead blowing out to 55-45 – and Malcolm Turnbull down nine on approval and up ten on disapproval. However, the BludgerTrack trend is not overly responsive to single poll results, so it records no sudden decline at the end of Turnbull’s tenure – only the levelling off an improving trend going back to late 2017.

Immediately after the leadership change, two pollsters posed questions on preferred prime minister, though not leadership approval. These produced very different results – a 39-33 lead for Bill Shorten from Newspoll, and a 39-29 lead for Scott Morrison from Essential. Newspoll is given a heavier weighting than Essential, so the trend follows its lead in finding Shorten with a very short-lived lead immediately after the leadership change. However, none of the fifteen poll results have replicated a lead for Shorten, so it is entirely possible that the Newspoll result was an outlier and the lead never existed in the first place.

The bigger picture is that Scott Morrison started well on net approval, but has now settled in roughly where Malcolm Turnbull was in his final months; that he is under-performing Turnbull on preferred prime minister; and that Bill Shorten’s net rating, while still not great, has been on a steady upward path since the leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,082 comments on “Leadership ratings revisited”

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  1. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 10:03 am
    Derryn Hinch is overjoyed he has finally got his Paedophile and Sex Offenders Register.

    I wonder if he would be keen on having a register of those who commit domestic violence?

  2. The fact that the selection panel is only three people and one or more of them happily leak their intentions is very, very, very telling.

    As against Sri Lanka, as their bowling attack is grade standard and the game in Brisbane will be mostly be attended by local Sri Lankans, we should the young players with highest averages and best techniques: Pattison, Lehmann and Pucovski (if fit).

    https://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/rising-australian-cricket-star-will-pucovski-opens-up-on-mental-health-battle/news-story/6958093f58958a533247692dcb12bbcc

  3. Dan G:

    If you’re around, we watched the final 2 episodes of Bodyguard last night. The show warmed to me towards the end. I wasn’t into it to start with, but it came good.

  4. The Australian Communications Authority should demand radio personalities with criminal offences disclose them prior to any Law and Order rants.

  5. ABC News 24 is going to broadcast Trump’s speech live. Its going to be interesting to see if they also broadcast the Democrats reply.

  6. C@tmomma @ #102 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 6:12 am

    Greg the Lying Hunt should simply have said, ‘We will’ give her a Humanitarian Visa.

    Why is the Health Minister commenting on this?

    Where is the relevant Minister?

    It seems the Labor shadow has made the most relevant and substantial comments on this.

    And finally, with this Government, nothing is that simple! 🙁

  7. As against Sri Lanka, as their bowling attack is grade standard and the game in Brisbane will be mostly be attended by local Sri Lankans, we should the young players with highest averages and best techniques: Pattison, Lehmann and Pucovski (if fit).

    Exactly right. So expect BBL stars like Chris Lynn yadda yadda to be picked.

    Not convinced about Lehmann yet. He has more work to do.

  8. Michael Cohen ‘thinks it’s checkmate for Trump’: Ex-lawyer thinks the president knew about Trump Tower meeting

    President Donald Trump’s longtime lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen reportedly believes it is “checkmate” in the investigations into Russian collusion and obstruction of justice.

    Donny Deutsch, a longtime friend of Cohen, explained the thinking on MSNBC’s “Deadline: White House” on Tuesday.

    “According to Michael Cohen — without specifically going into these allegations — after spending 70 hours with the special prosecutor, he thinks it’s checkmate for Trump,” Deutsch revealed.

    “I had many discussions about where I would ask him about the meeting at Trump Tower — the famous meeting — did Donald know? And his answer would be, without specifically answering, [Trump] knew everything that was going on everywhere,” he continued.

    “So I don’t think this would be a surprise to anybody,” he added.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/michael-cohen-thinks-checkmate-trump-ex-lawyer-thinks-president-knew-trump-tower-meeting/

  9. To be fair, we should go through proper processes before giving anyone a visa.

    Which shouldn’t be a problem for anyone, providing the person seeking the visa isn’t in any immediate danger.

    I’m perfectly prepared to believe that the Saudi woman involved is speaking the truth and her life is in danger if she returns – but there is also the possibility that she’s a spoilt teenager who chucked a tanty the first time she didn’t get her own way.

    As long as her safety is assured in the meantime, there’s no reason why any country looking at offering her asylum shouldn’t do a proper assessment of her claims.

    (Anyway, I thought she wanted to go to Canada?)

  10. Ex-FBI official explains how latest Russia revelations are ‘too explosive’ and ‘too close’ to Trump

    Later in the segment, Wallace asked, “what exposure Donald Trump could have if it is revealed that he had any knowledge of any piece of this?”

    “Well, we’re talking about the President’s chairman of his campaign, so it’s literally one step away from the candidate, himself,” Figliuzzi replied.

    He said the key question is if Manafort passed on information to Trump.

    “It’s likely it did, and that’s where you’re going to see this conspiracy, this criminal conspiracy, that we call collusion, being levied upon the president,” he noted.

    “And now the light bulb is going on as to why Manafort is choosing not to fully cooperate — this is just too explosive and too close to the president, himself,” he concluded.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/ex-fbi-official-explain-latest-russia-revelations-explosive-close-trump/

  11. Herr Gruppenführer Kartoffelkopfbesitzer must be getting a bit worried about keeping his seat. He has been going the full 2GB over the last week or so. FMD he even joined The Rodent at cricket. Which inspired headlines like this in Fairfax “Dutton photo shows he walks in Howard’s shoes” . Fairfax must have got that from Dutton’s press officer !

  12. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/hit-the-very-wealthy-with-more-tax-as-robert-menzies-did/news-story/8953321ef14d6074db39803d3a722776
    https://www.outline.com/U4nN56

    In any mixed economy such as Australia’s, which is compromised by oligopoly, soft corruption, regulator capture and huge direct and indirect subsidies to various industries (especially banking and ­finance), the idea that enormous individual incomes result solely from individual effort and innovation alone is silly.

    That’s even before you consider the significant argument that someone on $200,000, especially if they are supporting a family, will notice $1000 much more than someone on $800,000. That they pay the same marginal rate in Australia is an insult.

    And so on —

    I really, really, really (thanks Greg) like the comments.

    Darren
    2 hours ago
    Mate I drive around my town and I see the wastrels sitting on their backsides or the gentlemen walking around with their canes (A name I give to couple guys that pull in a DSP and I know there is nothing wrong with them) and you want me to pay more tax. What makes you think the government can spend my money better then me. I am on the top tax bracket and I work really hard for it. I can work up to 88 hours some weeks and I find its theft that I am paying 47 to 49% tax. The government should aim to only tax anyone 33%. Anything higher is just plain theft.

    .Bruce
    1 hour ago
    Dont kid yourself: the rich are intelligent and resourceful, the more you tax them, the more incentive they have to restructure their lives and finances to avoid it. The Laffer curve shows that

    Dannielle
    3 hours ago
    What a confused concoction of non sequiturs.

    So I earn a lot of money because of “oligopoly, soft corruption, regulator capture and huge direct and indirect subsidies to various industries?”

    Or could it be the two undergraduate and one masters degrees that I have, the 10 years I spent leveraging up my skills overseas and the 60 to 70 hours a week I work?

    If this nonsense continues, I will be heading back to Asia and taking my tax payments with me. Plenty of the top 5 % will as we can.

    Dannielle’s husband.

    Great stuff. My faith in my fellow Orstrians has been restored. After I finish my vacuuming and branch trimming I plan on getting me one a them Laffer Curves and a cane and search out a place to park my backside while I ponder where to register as a wastrel. Please, please, please – not via Centrelink. I will check with EBay after I finish with the green waste – I think I need a larger supply of non sequiturs.

    Thanks Mr. Creighton you should write more of this stuff. The ratbags, the dills, the drongos, the greedy and the fuck you very much crowd are like the proverbial moth to the flame.

    The best for last ❓

    Chris
    2 hours ago
    Wouldn’t it be more rational to legalise cocaine and tax the users.

    P.S. I came away unsure of what the hell with Danielle/Danielle’s husband. So – the seeds of a mystery story. Wunderbar.
    🌳 lot of tangled branches. 🌲 more of the same. ☮

  13. The Supreme Court on Tuesday left in place a lower-court order requiring an unnamed foreign-owned corporation to comply with a subpoena said to be part of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election.

    The court dissolved a temporary stay that had been put in place by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. In a short order, it did not give a reason for the decision nor note any dissents.

    The entity that is the subject of the cloaked legal battle — known in court papers simply as a “Corporation” from “Country A” — is a foreign financial institution that was issued a subpoena by a grand jury hearing evidence in the special counsel investigation, according to two people familiar with the case.

    It is thought to be the first time that an aspect of Mueller’s wide-ranging probe into Russian interference in the 2016 campaign has reached the Supreme Court.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-rules-against-mystery-corporation-from-country-a-fighting-subpoena-in-mueller-investigation/2019/01/08/a39b61ac-0d1a-11e9-84fc-d58c33d6c8c7_story.html?utm_term=.ef260f653ceb

  14. Barney

    Nope. Its presenting the lies not the facts if you give Trump airtime and not the Democrats. Goes against the ABC Charter of accurate reporting.

    Much better to just have the usual analysis with excerpts afterwards

    Edit: Note I am going on Trump’s record of lying. See Washington Post count.

  15. guytaur

    So how many millions of KayJays ‘Ostrians’ do you think will drop their pens and tune in to listen to Trump’s drivel from the US ?

  16. Ex- NSA John Schindler blows it all apart in his latest column :

    Mueller Finally Unmasked the Trump Campaign’s Secret Russian Operative

    To anyone acquainted with real-world espionage, particularly when it involves Russians, Team Trump’s numerous secret connections to GRU in 2016 and beyond cannot be brushed off as mere coincidence. Exactly what role the Kremlin’s shadowy black-bat played in putting Donald Trump in the White House remains to be determined. None should doubt that Robert Mueller and his veteran investigators are on the case.

    MORE : https://observer.com/2018/04/russia-gru-agent-in-mueller-probe-is-konstantin-kilimnik/

  17. Barney

    To put it in context I thought our media covered President Barak Obama live too much as well.

    So its not just because its Trump. I want the ABC to only go live if Trump is announcing his National Emergency means he is arresting Democrat politicians and actually doing a coup.

  18. guytaur @ #126 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 6:40 am

    Barney

    To put it in context I thought our media covered President Barak Obama live too much as well.

    So its not just because its Trump. I want the ABC to only go live if Trump is announcing his National Emergency means he is arresting Democrat politicians and actually doing a coup.

    You really do worry about some insignificant shit.

  19. John also posted an old article – but its all now relative to todays Manafort news – I’ll link it for those interested

    How Putin’s Spies Infiltrated the Trump Campaign

    Donald Trump’s campaign for the presidency entered a new crisis at the end of this week with the resignation of Paul Manafort, his campaign manager, amid allegations of dirty money and Kremlin connections.

    https://20committee.com/2016/08/21/how-putins-spies-infiltrated-the-trump-campaign/

  20. Manu RajuVerified account@mkraju
    3m3 minutes ago
    Lisa Murkowski joins calls for the rest of the federal agencies to open up even before funding fight over border security is resolved, “I think we can walk and chew gum,” she tells us

    Meanwhile Pence has reportedly been sent to calm skittish Republicans in Congress.

  21. AR

    Yes just like they did with Obama. 🙂

    To be fair I don’t think Obama was calling it a National Emergency with actions by the Executive under that framework.

    Of course this could just be another lie from Trump as a political stunt and what I actually expect but who knows.

  22. Law Professor Laurence Tribe‏Verified account @tribelaw

    BREAKING NEWS: This is the previously missing link in the Trump/Putin conspiracy. The secret polling data enabled Kremlin to help Trump win in exchange for Trump help to Putin vs Ukraine. All that’s missing is a ribbon to tie it together. THIS IS HUGE!!

    A Paul Manafort court filing just accidentally connected some big dots between the Trump campaign and Russia

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/2019/01/08/paul-manaforts-lawyers-just-accidentally-connected-some-big-dots-between-trump-campaign-russia/?noredirect=on

  23. poroti @ #123 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 10:33 am

    guytaur

    So how many millions of KayJays ‘Ostrians’ do you think will drop their pens and tune in to listen to Trump’s drivel from the US ?

    Thanks for the notice. We are far to busy doing our colouring in (coloring) of Mr. Morrisons’s nice shoes. I am planning on Liberal Blue.

    I will submit my entry a little later. Garden work calls (not very loudly).

    Please note: the laces are quite well done – flat. I suspect the hand of a guiding intelligence.

    🎋 tanabata tree – No ❗ I have not idea what that is.

    Secret information. We (including Bears) pay no attention to alarums and excursions​ *- which has given me something to enhance my life – Shakespeare – investigate – alarums etc.. No Trumpery for us – TYVM.

    *
    noun

    Definition of alarums and excursions​
    1 : martial sounds and the movement of soldiers across the stage —used as a stage direction in Elizabethan drama

    2 : clamor, excitement, and feverish or disordered activity

  24. Will, let me be the first (I think) to comment on the topic of your main post – the preferred PM polls. As someone pointed out a few threads back, the person whom people effectively prefer as PM is the leader of the party that is ahead on the 2PP. A poll on how many people understand that when they vote for a particular candidate or a particular party they are voting for that party’s leader to be PM would be interesting. I suspect most voters have at least a dim appreciation of that fact at the back of their minds when they cast their vote – hence the general fury when a party changes its leader. If that’s true I wonder why so many say they prefer the leader of the party they’re NOT going to vote for as PM. My only explanation is “There’s nowt so queer as folk…” Better explanation greatly appreciated.

  25. BK says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 8:24 am
    He’s done it again!!!

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. (originally posted two hours ago)

    BK

    I think there’s nothing else for it. Someone has to advise William that if he persists with this kind of behaviour he will be permanently banned from the site. Any volunteers?

  26. Jack Aranda @ #139 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 7:04 am

    Will, let me be the first (I think) to comment on the topic of your main post – the preferred PM polls. As someone pointed out a few threads back, the person whom people effectively prefer as PM is the leader of the party that is ahead on the 2PP. A poll on how many people understand that when they vote for a particular candidate or a particular party they are voting for that party’s leader to be PM would be interesting. I suspect most voters have at least a dim appreciation of that fact at the back of their minds when they cast their vote – hence the general fury when a party changes its leader. If that’s true I wonder why so many say they prefer the leader of the party they’re NOT going to vote for as PM. My only explanation is “There’s nowt so queer as folk…” Better explanation greatly appreciated.

    Jack, I think the last change of leadership demonstrates why it’s such a useless measure.

    Initially Shorten became the PPM because people didn’t know who the PM was, but once they did, they just reverted back to the norm of preferring the PM to be the PM.

  27. This guy is the retired CIA head of Russia Operations.

    Steven L. Hall@StevenLHall1
    7m7 minutes ago
    Remember, the polling info Manafort passed to Kilimnik was headed to Deripaska, who is close to Putin.

  28. “Miranda Devine has truly shown she has no understanding of history”
    Having no understanding period is a prerequisite for being one of Murdoch’s chosen

  29. Darn @ #140 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 11:13 am

    BK says:
    Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 8:24 am
    He’s done it again!!!

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. (originally posted two hours ago)

    BK

    I think there’s nothing else for it. Someone has to advise William that if he persists with this kind of behaviour he will be permanently banned from the site. Any volunteers?

    🐨🐨🌟

    Oh shit ❗

    I would be pleased if the poster who wrote about bomb shelters would repost. Please.

    Just kidding – William has a peculiar sense of humor – witness us. 😇

  30. That shoe thing with the PM is just another example of how hopeless his team (or whoever) is with social media. They try to post things that they reckon are engaging and only end up making laughing stock of the govt and the PM!

  31. Jack Aranda

    Better explanation greatly appreciated.

    I can only offer a different speculation. It is a low grade fear of the unknown. As much as the L/NP are not liked, when presented with an unknown potential PM and a known actual PM the unknown carries a small amount of uncertainty and fear. (Barney’s thoughts appear similar. It is the unknown.)

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