Leadership ratings revisited

Picking apart personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings in the Morrison era.

BludgerTrack’s leadership approval and preferred prime ministership readings have been in limbo since last August’s leadership change, since it was necessary to accumulate a certain amount of data before Morrison-era trends could usefully be generated. I have now finally got around to doing something about this, the results of which can be found through the link below:

This exercise has to contend with the very substantial idiosyncrasies of the various pollsters, of which three produce data that can meaningfully be compared with each other: Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos (there are also a handful of small-sample Morgan results in the mix). This is done by calculating a trend exclusively from Newspoll, determining the other pollsters’ average deviations from that trend, and adjusting their results accordingly. For whatever reason, Newspoll appears to be a particularly tough marker, which means the other pollsters are adjusted very substantially downwards on approval and upwards on disapproval:

Ipsos Essential
PM approval -11.0% -3.1%
PM disapproval +8.9% +8.6%
OL approval -5.5% -1.0%
OL disapproval +2.4% +9.5%
PM preferred -4.8% -0.3%

“PM preferred” refers to the size of the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader in preferred prime minister polling – so Ipsos, for example, records relatively large leads for the Prime Minister in comparison with Newspoll, and is adjusted accordingly.

The job of charting trendlines through the spread of results is complicated by some notable outliers at around the time of the leadership transition. Malcolm Turnbull’s critics on the right are very keen on an Ipsos poll conducted over the last week of his prime ministership, as it is the only evidence polling has to offer that the Coalition’s present dismal position is not entirely down to the avoidable disaster of Turnbull’s removal. After a period of fairly consistent 51-49 results from all pollsters, this poll found Labor’s lead blowing out to 55-45 – and Malcolm Turnbull down nine on approval and up ten on disapproval. However, the BludgerTrack trend is not overly responsive to single poll results, so it records no sudden decline at the end of Turnbull’s tenure – only the levelling off an improving trend going back to late 2017.

Immediately after the leadership change, two pollsters posed questions on preferred prime minister, though not leadership approval. These produced very different results – a 39-33 lead for Bill Shorten from Newspoll, and a 39-29 lead for Scott Morrison from Essential. Newspoll is given a heavier weighting than Essential, so the trend follows its lead in finding Shorten with a very short-lived lead immediately after the leadership change. However, none of the fifteen poll results have replicated a lead for Shorten, so it is entirely possible that the Newspoll result was an outlier and the lead never existed in the first place.

The bigger picture is that Scott Morrison started well on net approval, but has now settled in roughly where Malcolm Turnbull was in his final months; that he is under-performing Turnbull on preferred prime minister; and that Bill Shorten’s net rating, while still not great, has been on a steady upward path since the leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,082 comments on “Leadership ratings revisited”

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  1. The LNP leadership fandango revisited would certainly give the drama “Brideshead Revisited” some stiff competition for its continuity.

  3. Greensborough Growler @ #149 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 7:26 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #141 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 11:20 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #143 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 7:18 am

    <a href="<a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    Why does the back row miss out? 🙁

    They refused to wear the right foot shoes.

    Surely they would help Michaelia blend in better behind whiteboards.

  5. Why the hell would you bother photoshopping a family photo in that way just because of his shoes?The Libs /Morrison cant even get a photo right.The photo is as fake as he is.

  6. Confessions
    Has any of his spokespeasants told us what the motivation/intention behind their using Adobe PhotoKlutz on his shoes ? Whatever it was it is sure to be a ‘Good Grief !’ LOL.

  8. Confessions @ #147 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 7:23 am

    That shoe thing with the PM is just another example of how hopeless his team (or whoever) is with social media. They try to post things that they reckon are engaging and only end up making laughing stock of the govt and the PM!

    For me it just demonstrates a lack of thought before acting, which is pretty indicative of his PMship so far.

    His superhero identity is “Action Man” whose super power is the ability airbrush mistakes after the event. 🙂

  9. poroti @ #156 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 8:32 am

    Confessions
    Has any of his spokespeasants told us what the motivation/intention behind their using Adobe PhotoKlutz on his shoes ? Whatever it was it is sure to be a ‘Good Grief !’ LOL.

    According to Peter Fitzsimons he received a phone call from the PMO saying it was Dept PM&C responsible for the original photo. Not PM’s office.

    Go figure.

  10. Well, look who it is!

    Polly Sigh
    ‏

    @dcpoll

    Mar 2006 photo of Russian intelligence operative Konstantin Kilimnik [1] & his associates:
    2- Tad Devine, BERNIE SANDERS 2016 senior campaign strategist
    3- Manafort, TRUMP 2016 campaign chair
    4- Christian Ferry, LINDSEY GRAHAM 2016 campaign manager
    #Maddow https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article214199064.html …

    Interesting to note the Lindsey Graham connection.

  11. @FrBower
    24m24 minutes ago

    The #Murdoch tabloids seem to want to label anyone with compassion and decency as a ‘leftist’. I would have thought it was simply being human. If they must label me, the only one I will accept is ‘Christian’ and even then, with qualifications. #Auspol

  16. EXCLUSIVE: A national child sex offender register would be established under a move being considered by the Morrison Government. The Commonwealth has already begun talks with the states about the move #auspol @theheraldsun

    Roman Quaedvlieg
    ‏@quaedvliegs
    2h2 hours ago

    A national register already exists. It’s the Australian National Child Offenders Register (ANCOR). Presumably this proposal is to provide a limited public window into its xxx which I support if properly administered. Good benefits to protect children, but not without risks.

  17. Barney, Late Riser – thanks for your thoughts. They have triggered off another speculation in my mind – that maybe a significant number of respondents interpret the question as “who do you prefer as PM for the moment?” Not wishing to have their lives interrrupted by a snap election, they prefer the current PM to stay there for a while. I wonder if the answers would be different if they were asked “Who would you prefer to be PM after the next election?” Anyone with contacts in the polling companies, please pass that on.

  19. ‘We have the umbilical cord’: Harvard Law professor explains Don Jr. and Jared Kushner are caught on collusion

    Veselnitskaya is now clearly exposed as an agent of the Kremlin,” he explained.

    “So that when an offer was made at that infamous Trump Tower meeting of emails from Hillary Clinton, the offer that Donald Jr. said he would ‘love’ if it came at the right time in the campaign, we now know that that’s basically an offer of help from the Kremlin and a violation of American Law, which forbids accepting offers or soliciting offers of foreign help,” Tribe explained.

    In addition to Manafort, senior White House advisor Jared Kushner and Donald Trump, Jr. likely have significant legal exposure after participating in the Trump Tower meeting.

    “And it means that the president’s son and the head of the president’s campaign and the president’s son-in-law — all of those people were soliciting help, not just from some random Russian, but from the Kremlin,” he concluded.

    “All that’s missing is a bow to tie this whole thing into a knot,” Tribe added. “And I think we are now seeing the structure of a multinational conspiracy to help Donald Trump win the election. “It’s quite profound.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/umbilical-cord-harvard-law-professor-explains-don-jr-jared-kushner-caught-collusion/

  20. Jack Aranda @ #167 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 7:44 am

    Barney, Late Riser – thanks for your thoughts. They have triggered off another speculation in my mind – that maybe a significant number of respondents interpret the question as “who do you prefer as PM for the moment?” Not wishing to have their lives interrrupted by a snap election, they prefer the current PM to stay there for a while. I wonder if the answers would be different if they were asked “Who would you prefer to be PM after the next election?” Anyone with contacts in the polling companies, please pass that on.

    Then, I think it would basically parallel the 2PP.

    Just as useless! 🙂

  25. C@t

    Oh no Barak and Hilary and Al Gore and John Kerry must be ‘involved’ as well.

    ……… Among the hundreds of exhibits are emails and memos between Manafort and several go-to political and advertising strategists of the Democratic Party for two decades,…………….The emails run from 2006 through to 2014, after Yanukovych fled to Moscow following protests against his rule. Devine, a long-time consultant for the Democratic Party, also advised Al Gore on his presidential run in 2000 and John Kerry’s bid in 2004.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-20/democratic-consultants-to-get-dragged-into-paul-manafort-trial

  27. Barney: “Then, I think it would basically parallel the 2PP. Just as useless!” Possibly – but it would be interesting to find out. If it did, that would at least confirm my belief that most voters have some idea of the effect of their local choice on the country’s overall leadership – which the current PPM results seem to refute!

  28. lizzie:

    [‘Mavis

    Be fair. That was under entertainment (although I have never found Travolta entertaining, bald or hairy).’]

    That be true but more often than not a number of the so-called “Top Stories” are puff-pieces.

  29. poroti,
    And by 2006 he was palling around with Paul Manafort and Konstantin Kilimnik. Sometimes good people turn bad. Or don’t you subscribe to that possibility? Or, he could always have been gathering informstion about those people, even back then. Do you know for sure what he was doing?

  30. Bill Shorten will be the preferred PM when he is PM. And it can’t come quick enough.
    Left footed clown shoe and his tawdry ragtag bunch of public teat suckers and hypocrites have to go.

  32. The preferred PM question should be reformulated to include the party winning government. Something along the lines:

    Who do you think would give us the better prime minister, Shorten with a Labor government or Morrison with a Liberal government?

  33. Mavis Smith

    🙂 “Be fair” was slightly humorous, not critical. I won’t argue with your general premise. I’ve noticed they’ve been more circumspect recently, tho.

  34. Poroti

    I get why you are calling it a nothing burger. A lot of crying wolf has happened.

    My view is there is enough to go for Impeachment. The details under the redacted part released by the defence is of course from the defence. Not from the prosecution.

    So no I won’t be drawing smoking gun here conclusions just yet.

  36. Chris MegerianVerified account@ChrisMegerian
    1h1 hour ago
    Rep. Schiff tells me tonight that House Intel wasn’t previously aware of the allegation involving Paul Manafort and polling data. He calls it “deeply alarming.”

    Well that’s interesting. When a fellow committee colleague was asked whether the committee knew about Manafort and the polling data he said he wasn’t able to confirm nor deny, and when pushed by the interviewer, he said “I’m not surprised”, suggesting that the committee DID know about it.

  37. Urban Wronski
    ‏@UrbanWronski
    1m1 minute ago

    Dutton breaks all records for running away from his own press conference today when challenged to account for his illegal and ill-informed attempt to strip citizenship from Neil Prakash while posing as a caring type of strong man offering a sex offenders register stunt.

  38. Poroti

    Sorry. I think a smoking gun is required to force Impeachment if Mueller does not Indict Trump directly if he does indeed find that smoking gun.

  39. Shellbell @ #49 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 8:51 am

    There is no reason why a similar list of known drug dealers, including those operating at festivals, should not also be published if something for sex offenders is to occur.

    Yep.

    Or the thieves at the Bank’s.

    Or Wages thieves.

    Superannuation thieves,

    Water thieves,

    The Lies Politicans tell, the promises they break.

    Etc etc.

    Not that I’m speaking up for pedophiles in any way.

  40. PhoenixRED:

    [‘…Harvard Law professor explains Don Jr. and Jared Kushner are caught on collusion.’]

    Don Jnr. and Jared must be in a constant state of flux, fearing that tap on the shoulder. I reckon their best bet is to turn on Don Snr, though Mafia families tend to keep their dirty linen within the family. And, besides, big daddy, daddy-in-law will most likely pardon them on any federal charges.

  41. Dee Madigan
    @deemadigan
    2m2 minutes ago

    There is no way even the most incompetent graphic designer would photoshop 2 left feet and do it that badly. Someone in PMO hates @ScottMorrisonMP

  42. Not to mention this Russian guy, whose North Carolina house was raided in December and who has military supply links to the South Sudanese dictator, Sol Bashir, whom all those ‘African Gang’ members are fleeing from(the ones Peter Dutton wants US to fear):


    Polly Sigh
    @dcpoll
    a day ago, 9 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter

    Leonid Teyf, a wealthy Russian national living in NC accused of money laundering and plotting a murder-for-hire, has ties to Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin [“Putin’s chef”], who was indicted by Mueller election tampering.
    HT @WendySiegelman #Maddow

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1082462555392671745.html

  43. Dave

    Thats why Dutton picks Pedophiles and Terrorists. So if you have valid objections to anything he can just say you must be weak or for those groups.

  45. C@tmomma @ #179 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 10:58 am

    poroti,
    And by 2006 he was palling around with Paul Manafort and Konstantin Kilimnik. Sometimes good people turn bad. Or don’t you subscribe to that possibility? Or, he could always have been gathering informstion about those people, even back then. Do you know for sure what he was doing?

    Cat
    FFS
    In 2006 many, may, many people in the US and UK and everywhere were active in Russia and ukraine as it was still one of the US besties. There was some growing concern about Putin but not too much.

    There would probably be 100,000 similar images of people in US politics or related having similar meetings in France, UK, Israel, Saudi, Egypt, Australia, Germany, Romania, Brazil, China, Vietnam etc.

    Honestly there is NOTHING improper in such meetings unless you want to ban all international business.

    Frankly this is the sort of rank stupidity that undermines the whole Mueller case.

    Now it is entirely possible that Trump was targeted by Russian security agencies, probably along with 1,000 others. As a vain, PR man susceptible to honey traps I think it possible that he was so targeted, especially because he was anxious to do lucrative deals. However this is a far, far, far cry from posting pictures of someone with whom he had transient business relations to prove some sort of “collusion”.

    Do you seriously believe that US and Australian and UK security services do not do exactly the same. This fake outrage is a bit like a large scale tax avoider accusing a welfare cheat of a crime.

    Also it is unrealistically saying that the Russian ex KGB have some sort of super human clairvoyance, which is frankly absurd. Something that happened in 2006 is a long, long time before the US election.

    Find me pictures taken in 2015 or later and i will take them seriously, but the rest is rubbish.

  46. guytaur says: Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 12:02 pm

    Poroti

    I get why you are calling it a nothing burger. A lot of crying wolf has happened.

    My view is there is enough to go for Impeachment. The details under the redacted part released by the defence is of course from the defence. Not from the prosecution.

    So no I won’t be drawing smoking gun here conclusions just yet.

    *****************************************************

    The press and all forms of the media tend to sensationalise all aspects of this to sell newspapers or get TV ratings ….. or to get posts on PB 🙂

    In the end – it all depends on what Robert Mueller Team have on the all the players and he has not said a word in public just yet – but from all that has happened the indications are that he knows ‘everything’ and knows who is lying and who has done whatever

    I wait with patience to see what will be revealed when he tables his report – and then and only then will we know the TRUTH ……

  48. Sexism comes to CES.

    “Men’s sexuality is allowed to be explicit with a literal sex robot in the shape of an unrealistically proportioned woman and VR porn in point of pride along the aisle,” she wrote. “Female sexuality, on the other hand, is heavily muted if not outright banned. You cannot pretend to be unbiased if you allow a sex robot for men but not a vagina-focused robotic massager for blended orgasm.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/08/ces-dildo-gender-sex-toy-ose-personal-massager

    (Someone had been watching Frankie and Grace.)

  49. Mavis Smith @ #190 Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 – 11:10 am

    PhoenixRED:

    [‘…Harvard Law professor explains Don Jr. and Jared Kushner are caught on collusion.’]

    Don Jnr. and Jared must be in a constant state of flux, fearing that tap on the shoulder. I reckon their best bet is to turn on Don Snr, though Mafia families tend to keep their dirty linen within the family. And, besides, big daddy, daddy-in-law will most likely pardon them on any federal charges.

    Mavis

    If Jared is to be caught it will be for collusion with Israel, for which I think he is guilty or aat least because he was bailed out by Israeli finnacial guys it is practically certain that Israeli interests exert undue influence. Russian stuff in minor.

    Recall also that much of this stuff is based in Ukraine and the actual Russian link is unclear. It is all wishful thinking

  50. PR

    Yep a lot of journalists and talking heads are frustrated with the secrecy of the Mueller investigations.

    While at the same time having fun speculating on maximum 🙂

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