BludgerTrack’s leadership approval and preferred prime ministership readings have been in limbo since last August’s leadership change, since it was necessary to accumulate a certain amount of data before Morrison-era trends could usefully be generated. I have now finally got around to doing something about this, the results of which can be found through the link below:
This exercise has to contend with the very substantial idiosyncrasies of the various pollsters, of which three produce data that can meaningfully be compared with each other: Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos (there are also a handful of small-sample Morgan results in the mix). This is done by calculating a trend exclusively from Newspoll, determining the other pollsters’ average deviations from that trend, and adjusting their results accordingly. For whatever reason, Newspoll appears to be a particularly tough marker, which means the other pollsters are adjusted very substantially downwards on approval and upwards on disapproval:
| Ipsos | Essential | |
|---|---|---|
| PM approval | -11.0% | -3.1% |
| PM disapproval | +8.9% | +8.6% |
| OL approval | -5.5% | -1.0% |
| OL disapproval | +2.4% | +9.5% |
| PM preferred | -4.8% | -0.3% |
“PM preferred” refers to the size of the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader in preferred prime minister polling – so Ipsos, for example, records relatively large leads for the Prime Minister in comparison with Newspoll, and is adjusted accordingly.
The job of charting trendlines through the spread of results is complicated by some notable outliers at around the time of the leadership transition. Malcolm Turnbull’s critics on the right are very keen on an Ipsos poll conducted over the last week of his prime ministership, as it is the only evidence polling has to offer that the Coalition’s present dismal position is not entirely down to the avoidable disaster of Turnbull’s removal. After a period of fairly consistent 51-49 results from all pollsters, this poll found Labor’s lead blowing out to 55-45 – and Malcolm Turnbull down nine on approval and up ten on disapproval. However, the BludgerTrack trend is not overly responsive to single poll results, so it records no sudden decline at the end of Turnbull’s tenure – only the levelling off an improving trend going back to late 2017.
Immediately after the leadership change, two pollsters posed questions on preferred prime minister, though not leadership approval. These produced very different results – a 39-33 lead for Bill Shorten from Newspoll, and a 39-29 lead for Scott Morrison from Essential. Newspoll is given a heavier weighting than Essential, so the trend follows its lead in finding Shorten with a very short-lived lead immediately after the leadership change. However, none of the fifteen poll results have replicated a lead for Shorten, so it is entirely possible that the Newspoll result was an outlier and the lead never existed in the first place.
The bigger picture is that Scott Morrison started well on net approval, but has now settled in roughly where Malcolm Turnbull was in his final months; that he is under-performing Turnbull on preferred prime minister; and that Bill Shorten’s net rating, while still not great, has been on a steady upward path since the leadership change.
Confessions @ #842 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:28 pm
Weeellll, it was Chris Matthews, who is one of the least loony Fox News hosts. He’s there for the ‘Balance’. 🙂
JustSayin’ @ #842 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 10:25 am
Interestingly, the small handful of arrests (6 from memory) of suspected terrorists trying to cross the border have been on the Canadian border.
I guess there’ll have to be another wall built to the north and Canada will have to pay for it. 🙂
” In the USA of course it is NOT true and many, many immigrants cross the land border. in particular the ones who are unskilled and suppress wages.”
Of course no one would think of cracking down on employers who taken on and underpay undocumented immigrants. How about identifying offending employers, forcing them to pay their work force, legal and illegal, full back pay, fine them heavily and deport the illegal immigrants (maybe decduct a fine from their back pay for illegally crossing the border).
It seems that the right gets a double benefit from illegal immigration: cheap labor to help suppress wages and unions; and convenient scapegoats to distract the punters from who is really to blame for their low wages and miserable work conditions.
Xoanon @ #846 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:29 pm
Please, not that. I can’t think of a single place I’ve ever been in the U.S. where I thought “what this place really needs is more trains and stuff”.
Spend the $57 billion on renewable energy, or better/more affordable universities, or R&D at NASA/DARPA/etc.. You know, things that are actually useful and necessary and world-changing.
Perhaps one of the Nazi’s 19 constituents…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/10/fraser-anning-billed-taxpayers-brothers-queensland-hotel
C@t:
True. But in Fox News Land, being the least loony one of their mob isn’t really saying much!!
C@tmomma
The queen of snark reckons I skulked off to where she is the legendary Public Enemy No.1. .Then received a response . What is the world coming to ?
DDT, is a world (economic) where everything can be fixed by an ever increasing population, then it is very good policy.
In my world (and a mounds like yours) it is batshit crazy.
Dan Gulberry @ #851 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 9:35 am
The problem here is it was in a Tom Clancy novel, some, I think, Russian spies or terrorists came across the Mexican border because it was so easy.
C@tmomma @ #848 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 10:31 am
I do agree with that entirely. That has been a result of the influence of Sanders rather than Clinton. I think it’s a good thing as well. Eventually (it might take a generation or two), but America will join the rest of the world in having such things as universal health care and education, both of which are equated with Labor here.
I actually edited the post you responded to to add:
Would you agree with that?
C@t:
While I think of it, Beto O’Rourke did a 90min Facebook live video from the Texas/Mexico border. You might be interested in watching it, apparently it was very well received.
https://www.facebook.com/betoorourke/videos/534668390371473/?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARBuWngFFCzp9E1QO_i7Qfv588dFIIx_MV9nIokSO0phWObZYYbdafrITT3GvhnA3EgYURwHHYRdAsyfP-i9GAPbrhRDpk8jRH5ejYIjo9f6Q8-hfIfyjfqb1nqXfEyChob4PcfYqq6Y3SW4gUtbLsqMRyO97LvDmlAOuHAshwkIgOZ-DiH3E2KNG5F578cFE18eg6W_CuevmzXbCyErO9aAK1Ai09n_5k41zKb1Rm2Nk7JuOghiZxsFL5_iLLER5lwNRMaspTO5x3kAcaQTVJiaDcFaS3PlI5un4Ao3u05nBwwW76NKXZObjTXuY0BQ0LxUmq5E7hZFTy5zzfaVnpBs6vebRBBt&__tn__=-R
“The Libs are playing with fire re ethnic communities in the cities, every time they dabble in racism at whatever level. I’m surprised they don’t take more electoral damage from it.”
not just from “ethnic” (& we are all ethnic) communities – most city ‘aussies’ under the age of 40 are used to and comfortable with multi-ethnic/cultural society and would reward labor if they’d have to courage to call out the LNP every time they play the race and division card. The LNP are going to use the race card at the election, and the sooner labor demonises this in middle class LNP urban seats the better.
Rick Wilson musta had a bad evening meal 🙂
Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
White House Hires 17 New Lawyers.
Lemme tell you what…it won’t matter. That makes 17 new lawyers who also have a dipshit pathological liar treasonous fuckwit for a client.
Barney in Go Dau
The Canadians are beating them to it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGTznIy6i4w
Zoidlord @ #846 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:32 pm
In a way I wanted Trump to build his wall, or at least get started on it. So a 2020 Democratic POTUS candidate could say, “Tear down that wall, Mr Trump!” 😆
Thank you, ‘fess. I saw a quick exerpt and he seemed to have grown a beard for the winter. Or maybe he’s trying an Abe Lincoln look out? 😉
Steve SchmidtVerified account @SteveSchmidtSES
I think the word “polling” is likely imprecise with regard to the Manafort revelations. It reads to me like they turned over the RNC voter file to Russian Intelligence which used the data to target US voters in a highly sophisticated disinformation campaign which was aimed into Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio. There is no way the Russians could utilize the voter file without fairly consistent contact and guidance from the campaign. It is starting to smell to me that the investigators have Trumps’ campaign and possibly (probably) Trump dead to rights on a conspiracy with Russian intelligence to affect the outcome of a US selection. It’s not a poll that was delivered but the data models …..
DanG,
The ALP stands somewhere between the Dems and Bernie Sanders.
Would you agree with that?
Yes I would! Closer to Bernie Sanders than you might agree with, though.
“I guess there’ll have to be another wall built to the north and Canada will have to pay for it. ”
they’ll have to build it to keep the refugees from Trump/Pence’s Gilead in the US.
C@tmomma
says:
Maybe C@t’s right poroti! Let’s just suspend our critical faculties and play follow the party/leader.
Not saying that. What I am saying is that certain people just seem to look for the anti Centre Left party angle and think they are oh so smart when they can reach back, decontextualise, and throw up an action taken by that party or their leader at the time to sow doubts in other people’s mind about those leaders, or that party. You do it all the time, nath. As do the other jerks in your circle.
It’s simply an entirely disingenuous way to debate an issue. trying to tar a leader, or their party with the brush of actions past. Which may well have been rectified by subsequent leaders or policy changes.
It’s just like the tired old charabanc you drag out and try to fire up on too regular a basis in order to try and gin up animus towards Bill Shorten. They are just the actions of a person too embittered to acknowledge the positive. They would rather try and drag down that party, or that leader, by continually attempting to emphasise the negative.
It’s just lame.
_______________________________
No it’s just that I recognise that both sides of politics contribute to bad results and that the internal battles inside parties are just as important as the outside battles. You just see any criticism of the ALP as treason or heresy or a crime. And even worse, criticism of any person in the ALP is seen by you as similar.
“White House Hires 17 New Lawyers.”
One branch of government that is not affected by the shutdown.
Trump is a total moron. You only have to see any given few minutes of him speaking to figure that out.
Backing him is a great way to get attention for the needy on PB. Of course that means you will need so many truck loads of whatboutism that you will end up with opinions on everything and nothing.
Question
says:
Thursday, January 10, 2019 at 2:03 pm
Trump is a total moron. You only have to see any given few minutes of him speaking to figure that out.
Backing him is a great way to get attention for the needy on PB. Of course that means you will need so many truck loads of whatboutism that you will end up with opinions on everything and nothing.
________________________________
Trump is a total moron. You only have to see any given few minutes of him speaking to figure that out.
Shouting at him is a great way to get attention for the needy on PB. Of course that means you will need so many truck loads of fake indignation that you will end up with opinions on everything and nothing.
nath
“No it’s just that I recognise that both sides of politics contribute to bad results and that the internal battles inside parties are just as important as the outside battles. ”
Those “inside battles” are especially true of the Greens – especially recently. Despite their claims to ethical purity, the Greens are just another political party: faction-ridden, backstabbing, and cynical.
I like the odds that at least one of the 17 is going in as a mole to help bring Trump to justice.
Kakuru @ #871 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 10:02 am
Have they just had a graduation ceremony?
[“If accurate, this is damning evidence of a senior Trump campaign official providing information to individuals tied to Russian intelligence at the height of the Kremlin’s effort to undermine our election,” Warner said.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democrats-zero-in-on-latest-manafort-russia-polling-data-revelation-20190110-p50qkm.html
I don’t understand Scomo’s shoes?
I thought the guys in the art department would want him to look down to earth. I could understand them wanting to knock the Mosman off (he does a pretty good job of that anyway). But adding it on??? Very odd.
So Aanning billed us more than 500 bucks for two nights at his brothers hotel where the room rate is 85 a night.
When I am in charge I will do what my former employer did when people started playing fast and loose with expenses.
You are reimbursed for what you spend. None of this daily allowance crap. No receipt, no refund.
Few politicians might not be so keen to travel.
C@t:
Yup. Check this out if you can track it down:
Death or Liberty: Australia’s rebels and radicals
A new documentary, Death or Liberty by filmmaker Steve Thomas, tells the story of the rebels and radicals that were transported to Australia as political prisoners during the convict era.
Featuring original music by musicians Billy Bragg, Mick Thomas and Lisa O’Neill, the film seeks to capture the spirit and courage of the convicts who ultimately helped to shape democracy in Australia.
The film has been adapted from the original history book Death or Liberty: Rebels and radicals transported to Australia 1788 -1868 by Dr Tony Moore.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/booksandarts/death-or-liberty3a-australia27s-rebels-and-radicals/6880138
Maduro could go the same way as Allende:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/south-america/as-venezuela-falls-apart-maduro-tightens-grip-20190110-p50qlm.html
I know little of Maduro. Are there deep comparisons with Allende?
Oh no, not again! 😆
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-10/citizenship-doubt-liberal-mp-ben-morton-discovers-irish-heritage/10705292
Steve777 @ #318 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:35 pm
Steve i agree with this but in the US it will be hard
here we should be soing the same
Why is the Government so silent on this?
No mention of the T word.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/10/victorian-man-arrested-for-allegedly-sending-suspicious-packages-to-embassies
A couple of things about the Trump Russia investigation.
1. The House Democrats have written to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin demanding he explain why the the Treasury Department wants to ease sanctions on companies linked to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/house-democrats-now-asking-questions-about-treasury-secretary-steven-mnuchin-n956766
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/democrats-seek-delay-in-easing-u-s-sanctions-tied-to-deripaska
One of the companies linked to Deripaska is the world’s second largest aluminium company, United Co. Rusal. Deripaska is known to be close to the Kremlin. Oleg Deripaska was also Paul Manafort’s biggest client and was chasing Manafort for an unpaid $US19 million loan as well as another unpaid $US10 million.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/paul-manafort-russia-ties-2017-10?r=US&IR=T
In July 2017, The New York Times reported financial records Manafort filed in Cyprus that showed he was $US17 million in debt to pro-Russian interests when he joined the campaign. We also know that via former Russian-Ukranian intelligence operative Konstantin Kilimnik, Manafort offered to give Derapaska “private briefings” about the 2016 campaign in what may have been an effort to resolve his debt or “get whole” with Derapaska. Here is the email exchange between Manafort and now indicted Kilimnik:
“I assume you have shown our friends my media coverage, right?” Manafort reportedly wrote to Kilimnik.
“Absolutely,” replied Kilimnik. “Every article.”
“How do we use to get whole,” Manafort responded. “Has OVD operation seen?”
Manafort has also conceded to the SCO that he and Kilimnik discussed changing the RNC Ukraine foreign policy platform. Here is some excerpts from a WaPo oped by Jennifer Rubin, in which she lays out evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russians:
Even more intriguing, the filing by Manafort’s attorneys indicates that Manafort and Kilimnik discussed a Ukrainian peace plan, the first explicit reference to a discussion of Ukraine policy between the Trump campaign and a Russian-linked figure in the special counsel investigation:
You will recall that while Manafort was in charge of the Trump campaign in summer 2016 the Republican National Committee platform was changed to remove support for weapons for Ukraine, a dramatic about-face for Republicans and a position that would please Russia and its Ukrainian puppets.
“The most innocent possible explanation here is that Trump hired an international criminal who was trying to give campaign information to a Russian oligarch in exchange for debt relief, and using a Russian intelligence asset as his go between,” says former Department of Justice spokesman Matthew Miller. “But it’s hard to see what good polling data would be to a Russian oligarch, so it raises the question of whether Manafort’s actual goal was to get the information to the Russian government itself.” Whether this was all about Manafort and his finances or whether this was part of a larger quid quo pro between Trump and the Russians isn’t yet clear.
It is also noteworthy that we have, at the very least, yet another previously undisclosed contact between the Trump campaign and Russians. We’ve come a long way since Trump claimed neither he nor anyone on the campaign had contacts with Russians. Before the latest revelation, the Moscow Project had discovered “97 contacts between Trump’s team and Russia linked operatives, including at least 28 meetings. And we know that at least 28 high-ranking campaign officials and Trump advisers were aware of contacts with Russia-linked operatives during the campaign and transition.” Furthermore, “None of these contacts were ever reported to the proper authorities. Instead, the Trump team tried to cover up every single one of them.”
It’s hard to describe how bizarre this many contacts between a campaign and a hostile foreign government — one trying to influence the campaign to that side’s favor — truly is. Keep in mind that no major party presidential campaign of which we are aware ever had a single contact with the Russians
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/09/one-more-russian-contact-heres-why-it-matters/?utm_term=.3ea9f7f591c5
All sound pretty colludey to me. Does anyone else think that Trump’s shutdown is a pathetic, futile attempt to distract from his myriad legal woes, particularly from SCO?
2. The indictment of Kremlin lawyer Natalia Vesilnitskaya by the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York is interesting on a couple of counts:
Firstly, the indictment reveals that she misled the court about her links to Russian intelligence. This undercuts the argument from the Trump campaign that Veselnitskaya wasn’t acting for the Kremlin when she met Don Jr. and Co at Trump Tower to discuss dirt on Hillary Clinton.
Secondly, it shines on light on that court case in which the SDNY was suing Prevezon Holdings, a Russian company, alleging they effectively stole $230 million from Bill Browder (see Magnitsky Act etc). Veselnitskaya was the lawyer acting for Prevezon.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/8/18173806/natalia-veselnitskaya-indictment-trump-russia
Just noticed another contribution from a prominent Republican on Trump Russia:
Max Boot
@MaxBoot
There is a name for cooperation between an American political campaign and a foreign government. It’s commonly called collusion. Or, if you prefer the legal term, conspiracy. If this is what it appears to be, it is the biggest scandal in US history. Me:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-collusion-case-against-trump-just-got-a-lot-stronger/2019/01/09/2c4735ff-405d-474b-9b8b-c8f63648a169_story.html
Not sure who said it, but there is a saying that quite often the most logical explanation to a mystery/crime/conspiracy is the one staring you in the face.
Also this:
8 House Republicans break with Trump on shutdown strategy, back Democrats’ plan to reopen Treasury
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/shutdown-impasse-trump-heads-to-the-hill-after-oval-office-address/2019/01/09/27268008-13fe-11e9-b6ad-9cfd62dbb0a8_story.html
Yesterday I was accused of not ‘caring’ about the Saudi woman who was intercepted in Bangkok on the way to Australia. This is worth reading:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/10/why-has-one-refugee-captured-the-worlds-attention-while-another-is-left-in-jail
Both are in real danger. There is one big difference though. Hakeem al-Araibi is not only a determined refugee but also has engaged and has been given protection in Australia. He is a permanent resident.
Rahaf al-Qunun was on the way to Australia as a tourist when she was intercepted by Thai authorities. Australia owes her no protection as a matter of law. Unfortunately, Thailand is not a party to the refugee convention and so she cannot claim asylum there.
In my view, with both parties appearing to face the same risk of torture or death if returned to their countries of citizenship, Australia should give the highest priority to ensuring it meets its obligations to people who have a status already in Australia. That is not to say she should not be considered for and granted a humanitarian visa, but we owe Mr al-Araibi a lot more.
Regarding transportation of convicts, I’ve read more than 1 account of ticket of leave men and women who wrote to relatives and advised them to commit a minor crime that would on sentencing get them transported to the Antipodies as they would end up with a much better existence than they currently had in whatever shithole they happened to live. As for people covering up convict ancestry, that was never a problem in my family, we’re descended from Irish convict “stock” and fiercely proud of it.
Rossmcg @ #880 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:25 pm
When I contracted out to the US government (years ago) expenses were set per locality and updated yearly. There was a daily allowance for accommodation and another for food. You could chose to stay and eat cheaper and pocket the difference or treat yourself and pay the difference. It was simple and made a certain sense. I wonder if Australian government expenses are similar, and what Anning did?
Barney in Go Dau
A lack of muslims and Sudanese ?
The article mentions Maduro ‘tightening his grip’. But IIRC, Allende was increasing his vote during his tenure only to be deserted by a fellow socialist party from his coalition.
Allende was in a bitter political battle with parties of the right at a time where some unity and flexibility was needed (due to the price of copper collapsing, the removal of any support from the West and some of the failings in Allendes restructuring – mainly agrarian reforms). Whilst Allende can be blamed in part for the bitterness, and many political norms were broken by both sides in this hyper partisan period, I wasnt aware that Allende sought to restrict democracy.
That is from memory of studying it some time ago – so happy to be corrected.
The groups that clearly did subvert democracy were the Right with the support of the US. And they did this brutally over many years. Naomi Klein has a lot to say about this – whilst many socialist reforms were attempted within existing democratic frameworks the brutal dictatorship of Pinochet did not just coincide with his fundamentalist capitalist restructuring of Chile’s economy but was an essential characteristic of it. Klein makes the case that in order to make people swallow laissez faire you had to ‘shock’ them into submission first.
TPOF @ #887 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 11:10 am
They are no different!
He came to Australia and subsequently claimed asylum as she was attempting to do.
Both should be on the next plane to Australia.
Barney in Go Dau says:
“Why is the Government so silent on this?
No mention of the T word.
Victorian man arrested for allegedly sending suspicious packages to embassies”
No doubt they’re waiting to see if he’s a terrorist or a mentally-ill “loner” (otherwise known as a random violent white guy).
Simon² Katich®:
[‘I know little of Maduro. Are there deep comparisons with Allende?’]
Allende was Markist; Maduro, socialist – so I guess they’ve got something in common.
Following a coup in ’73 Allende committed suicide, the CIA apparently complicit:
‘In 1973, the CIA was notified by contacts of the impending Pinochet coup two days in advance, but contends it “played no direct role” in the coup. After Pinochet assumed power, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger told Nixon that the United States “didn’t do it” (referring to the coup itself) but had “created the conditions as great [sic] as possible”.’
Pursuant to the penultimate paragraph of the link I posted, Maduro could be in spot of bother too.
Never Trump Republican Ana Navarro said exactly this on CNN this morning.
Just read By Sea & Stars: The Story of the First Fleet by Trent Dalton. Not bad. I am keen now to re-read Watkin Tench and find a good book about la Pérouse.
Barney
He would be a white male,Aussie born and bred, so obviously he is just a ‘nutter’. Nothing to see here in other words.
Manafort revelations could put Kellyanne Conway under Mueller scrutiny: campaign data expert.
David Measer, an advertising and communications expert, explained the importance of the polling data that Manafort shared with Ukrainian associate Konstantin Kilimnik, who Mueller alleges has ties to Russian military intelligence.
Data is a crucial raw material for any campaign, and both advertisers and politicians spend a lot of time and money to get the most accurate and detailed information they can about their target audiences, Measer said — and they jealously guard those findings.
“You’ve got a Russian hacking operation stealing the competition’s (the DNC’s and the Clinton campaign’s) data…then you’ve got it all,” Measer said. “Everything you need to destroy the competition.”
Kellyanne Conway, a veteran Republican pollster, joined the Trump campaign as a senior adviser in July 2016 and was named campaign manager the following month, after Manafort resigned over his ties to Russia.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/manafort-revelations-put-kellyanne-conway-mueller-scrutiny-campaign-data-expert/#.XDYoduCLuaI.twitter
Good question. It’s not like them to pause for thought.
Perhaps it’s because they have nowhere to hammer home the wedge?