BludgerTrack’s leadership approval and preferred prime ministership readings have been in limbo since last August’s leadership change, since it was necessary to accumulate a certain amount of data before Morrison-era trends could usefully be generated. I have now finally got around to doing something about this, the results of which can be found through the link below:
This exercise has to contend with the very substantial idiosyncrasies of the various pollsters, of which three produce data that can meaningfully be compared with each other: Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos (there are also a handful of small-sample Morgan results in the mix). This is done by calculating a trend exclusively from Newspoll, determining the other pollsters’ average deviations from that trend, and adjusting their results accordingly. For whatever reason, Newspoll appears to be a particularly tough marker, which means the other pollsters are adjusted very substantially downwards on approval and upwards on disapproval:
| Ipsos | Essential | |
|---|---|---|
| PM approval | -11.0% | -3.1% |
| PM disapproval | +8.9% | +8.6% |
| OL approval | -5.5% | -1.0% |
| OL disapproval | +2.4% | +9.5% |
| PM preferred | -4.8% | -0.3% |
“PM preferred” refers to the size of the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader in preferred prime minister polling – so Ipsos, for example, records relatively large leads for the Prime Minister in comparison with Newspoll, and is adjusted accordingly.
The job of charting trendlines through the spread of results is complicated by some notable outliers at around the time of the leadership transition. Malcolm Turnbull’s critics on the right are very keen on an Ipsos poll conducted over the last week of his prime ministership, as it is the only evidence polling has to offer that the Coalition’s present dismal position is not entirely down to the avoidable disaster of Turnbull’s removal. After a period of fairly consistent 51-49 results from all pollsters, this poll found Labor’s lead blowing out to 55-45 – and Malcolm Turnbull down nine on approval and up ten on disapproval. However, the BludgerTrack trend is not overly responsive to single poll results, so it records no sudden decline at the end of Turnbull’s tenure – only the levelling off an improving trend going back to late 2017.
Immediately after the leadership change, two pollsters posed questions on preferred prime minister, though not leadership approval. These produced very different results – a 39-33 lead for Bill Shorten from Newspoll, and a 39-29 lead for Scott Morrison from Essential. Newspoll is given a heavier weighting than Essential, so the trend follows its lead in finding Shorten with a very short-lived lead immediately after the leadership change. However, none of the fifteen poll results have replicated a lead for Shorten, so it is entirely possible that the Newspoll result was an outlier and the lead never existed in the first place.
The bigger picture is that Scott Morrison started well on net approval, but has now settled in roughly where Malcolm Turnbull was in his final months; that he is under-performing Turnbull on preferred prime minister; and that Bill Shorten’s net rating, while still not great, has been on a steady upward path since the leadership change.
poroti @ #797 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:43 pm
Meh. 🙂
In breaking news:
https://twitter.com/BetootaAdvocate/status/1051988263492177920
Poroti
I may have missed your response
So you think the govt shutdown with the excuse of a bullshit wall is a good thing?
DaretoTread @ #775 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 8:20 am
We don’t, it was a political solution to something that was relatively minor issue regarding people coming to Australia claiming to be refugees. Most arrive by air as the Saudi woman was attempting to do.
And most do so legally everyday to go to work.
Once again most people arrive in planes, borders are largely irrelevant.
There is a world difference between identifying racism and exploiting it for political purposes. dtt does the latter. This is to be condemned in the strongest terms.
“With his insufferable boastfulness, Trump claimed, ‘I think I would have been a good general,’” the columnist wrote. “Actually, he would never have made it to first lieutenant, because his me-first ethos is so at odds with the military’s stress on service and sacrifice.”
________________________________
Apparently he couldn’t pass the fitness test. Bone spurs.
TPOF @ #806 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 8:51 am
Probably would have been shot in the back during his first encounter with an enemy.
Either by his own men or by the enemy as he ran away.
Barney in Go Dau @ #190 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 11:51 am
Stop the planes! 🙂
nath @ #795 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:42 pm
Not saying that. What I am saying is that certain people just seem to look for the anti Centre Left party angle and think they are oh so smart when they can reach back, decontextualise, and throw up an action taken by that party or their leader at the time to sow doubts in other people’s mind about those leaders, or that party. You do it all the time, nath. As do the other jerks in your circle.
It’s simply an entirely disingenuous way to debate an issue. trying to tar a leader, or their party with the brush of actions past. Which may well have been rectified by subsequent leaders or policy changes.
It’s just like the tired old charabanc you drag out and try to fire up on too regular a basis in order to try and gin up animus towards Bill Shorten. They are just the actions of a person too embittered to acknowledge the positive. They would rather try and drag down that party, or that leader, by continually attempting to emphasise the negative.
It’s just lame.
TPOF says:
Thursday, January 10, 2019 at 12:51 pm
“With his insufferable boastfulness, Trump claimed, ‘I think I would have been a good general,’” the columnist wrote. “Actually, he would never have made it to first lieutenant, because his me-first ethos is so at odds with the military’s stress on service and sacrifice.”
________________________________
Apparently he couldn’t pass the fitness test. Bone spurs.
***********************************************************
Even the ‘bone spurs’ was another Trump mythology bull shit story
Podiatrist’s daughters say bone spur diagnosis that helped Trump avoid Vietnam draft was ‘favor’
Two daughters of a New York podiatrist say that 50 years ago their father diagnosed President Donald Trump with bone spurs in his heels as a favor to the doctor’s landlord, Fred Trump, The New York Times reported Wednesday.
“It was a long time ago,” Trump told reporters at a July 2015 campaign rally in Iowa. “I had student deferments and then ultimately had a medical deferment because of my feet. I had a bone spur.”
When asked which foot had the problem, Trump – who has claimed to have “one of the greatest memories of all time” – told reporters that he could not remember. His campaign later released a statement saying the spurs affected both feet.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/12/27/trump-vietnam-war-bone-spur-diagnosis/2420475002/
Not all Republicans think Trump’s wall is a good idea. And this is the first I’ve seen in this recent Wall-Shutdown debate that actually raises the fact that most of the land on the Texas border is in private hands, making acquisition more difficult for the wall – it also says that litigation is still pending from landowners whose land was acquired when Shrub signed the Secure Fence Act over 10 years ago!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-wants-his-wall-texas-politicians-even-some-republicans-are-skeptical/2019/01/09/b6e54a4c-1423-11e9-90a8-136fa44b80ba_story.html?utm_term=.d0d6a3f7311a
The late Sen. John McCain, a Vietnam veteran whom Trump said was not a war hero because he got captured, took a veiled shot at the president’s medical deferment during an October 2017 C-SPAN interview.
“One aspect of the conflict, by the way, that I will never ever countenance is that we drafted the lowest-income level of America, and the highest-income level found a doctor that would say that they had a bone spur. That is wrong. That is wrong. If we are going to ask every American to serve, every American should serve,” McCain said.
C@t
Spot on.
Unfortunately poroti does that all too often
Very disappointing
As you say
Meh
C@t
I should add that the word nihilist comes to my mind sometimes
DDT: ‘I am all for immigration but think it should be tied to employment – not much point bringing in NEW immigrants if you have not work enough for those already here.’
I think our immigration policy is linked to employment. More immigrants means more jobs for people ‘already here’.
And in other news, my ride-on mower died this morning.
That’s far more important than Trump’s antics, to me.
Victoria @ #811 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:02 pm
And then when you challenge him on it the little charmer tells you, a woman, in a public forum, to ‘GAGF’. Some Lefty, huh? They’re supposed to be the ones who have more respect for women than the RWNJs!
Lizzie
As it should be
C@t
As I said, very disappointing
lizzie @ #817 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 9:06 am
vale
Lizzie
Oops should have added.
Is it repairable?
lizzie @ #812 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:03 pm
Greg the Lying Hunt is a cancer on our body politic. He has sold his soul to the devil. I’ll never forget the way he has abused women when he thought no one was looking. Or gotten one of his goons to do it. Like the way he got one of them to heavy a little, old Greens supporter who was protesting outside of one of his invitation-only, faux public meetings before the 2010 federal election. He’s a detestable human being.
Barney in Go Dau @ #269 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 11:51 am
Barney
That is of course true of Australia but you will understand they hysteria created here by a few boat arrivals. In the USA of course it is NOT true and many, many immigrants cross the land border. in particular the ones who are unskilled and suppress wages.
lizzie,
So your mower has ridden off into the sunset? 😉
Victoria @ #818 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:09 pm
Yes, he’s probably decamped over to The Pub right now to swear a blue streak about me. I’m Public Enemy #1 there. 😆
Victoria
Who said anything about the government shut down ? Just as with all previous shut downs I reckon it is a farked up system that allows such bulldust to occur and be used for partisan rubbish.
There is a slight glimmer of hope though.With the anti Trump cranked up to 11 perhaps this shut down will mean ‘somebody does something about it” to stop this happening in the future. Or at least make it much harder to bring about.
Mueller has ‘a hell of a lot more’ than Russian lawyer’s emails from 2014: Former Watergate prosecutor
A former Watergate prosecutor described in colorful terms the extent to which special counsel Robert Mueller has dug into the backgrounds of the subjects in his investigation.
“This all comes back to the Russian lawyer that was indicted yesterday,” Ackerman noted later in the segment in reference to Natalia Veselnitskaya, the Kremlin-linked attorney from the infamous Trump Tower meeting charged on Tuesday for obstructing a money-laundering probe.
“What’s really significant is that Mueller has laid out emails he has from her, back from 2014 — two years before the Trump Tower meeting,” Ackerman said. “And if he’s got those, he’s got a hell of a lot more.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/mueller-hell-lot-russian-lawyers-emails-2014-former-watergate-prosecutor/
Victoria
It roared like a dragon and then all the oil poured out of the bottom (not out where the oil change happens). I was thinking of buying a new one this year anyway, but hoped it would last the summer.
🙁
DaretoTread @ #824 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 9:11 am
Half!
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/09/opinion/jorge-ramos-trump-wall.html
C@tmomma
Public enemy No.1 😆 You do have an inflated view of yourself.
PeeBee @ #281 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:04 pm
peeBee
Sadly i think that is the sort of batshit bonkers economics AO1 thinking that is causing the problem. Common sense says it is absolute nonsense because like it or not there is only so much food, imports etc generated. Immigration may increase service jobs in say education and health care but taxes need to be raised to subsidize these public sector jobs.
I have been accused of having a “mecantilist” outlook whatever the f that means, but I call it common sense. a country is is rich as its resources allow – food, water, labour, minerals, manufactures all add to the nation’s wealth. we spend the wealth on eating, living and imports. To the extent that we have labor and money is excess of production of essentials such as food or used in manufacture etc, we can afford services. But services of themselves do not add to wealth although they may give more leisure time. As one wit noticed although GDP may go up we cannot all get by doing each other’s dry cleaning.
By and large immigrants require services and only to a limited extent add to net production.
‘Throwing tantrums for 72 years’: Trump biographer explains how the president bungled his business deals
Researcher and biographer Michael D’Antonio walked through the decades of bungled “deals,” that President Donald Trump had while negotiating in New York. To make matters worse, he thinks this might be the first time Trump has had to go up against a powerful woman.
When it came to Trump and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, however, D’Antonio thinks Trump is in over his head.
“As I’ve been watching this, I’ve been thinking about the fact that this is a man who has been having tantrums for 72 years,” he continued. “You know, and what Nancy Pelosi is doing is what a good mother does. She doesn’t give in to the kid having a tantrum
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/throwing-tantrums-72-years-trump-biographer-explains-president-bungled-business-deals/
The Republicans lean conservative and right, the Democrats progressive and right. In that sense they’re like the conservative and moderate wings of our LNP.
Interesting.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/9/18174631/old-people-fake-news-facebook-share-nyu-princeton
Big Pharma, not to mention Insurance Companies, will definitely push and push for access to MyHealth records in Australia- you can bet on it.
– – – over time, insurance companies would make it prohibitive and eventually impossible to refuse to agree to intensive monitoring:
https://truthout.org/articles/kiss-what-is-left-of-your-medical-data-privacy-goodbye/
C@t
I’m going to give it to a friend who has a motor mechanic neighbour, and is hoping that he can fix it. It’s worth nothing to me as a trade-in.
Lizzie
Oh. Sounds like it is time for it to ride into the sunset!
The idea that “people are inherently racist and you can’t/shouldn’t try to change/should try to capitalise on that” is rolled gold bullshit. Excusing labor’s complicity in allowing racist politics to flourish is inexcusable. It’d be a bit like labor deciding that all people are inherently selfish and embracing neo-classical economics and working to favour capital over workers. Oh, hang on…….!!
Australia is mainly divided along City/Cosmopolitan vrs Country/Racist lines – the LNP is dominated by the latter, and are competing with PHON for those votes, but they are turning off an entire generation of city voters as their older ‘base’die off. Labor would reap great benefit by slamming the LNP as old white racists a lot more than they do and wedging the libs in the cities in seats where racism is poison – there are handful of ‘safe’ metro Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide seats that would be under threat if labor made an issue of this (and climate change) and played then dead against small-L progressive indies.
poroti @ #828 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:20 pm
Excuse me? I thought I had been told to ‘GAGF’? You don’t do that and then think you can wheel around and pour more crap on me! Well, no, actually, you do. I think that’s quite sad and pathetic.
In my experience young people tend to prefer Instagram or Snapchat. Not Facebook.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/fact-check-did-u-s-catch-4-000-terrorists-southern-n954796
WASHINGTON — White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said Friday that Customs and Border Protection picked up nearly 4,000 known or suspected terrorists last year “that came across our southern border.”
But in fact, the figure she seems to be citing is based on 2017 data, not 2018, and refers to stops made by Department of Homeland Security across the globe, mainly at airports.
In fiscal 2017, the latest year for which data is available, according to agency data and the White House’s own briefing sheet, the Department of Homeland Security prevented nearly 4,000 known or suspected terrorists from “traveling to or entering the United States.”
According to Justice Department public records and two former counterterrorism officials, no immigrant has been arrested at the southwest border on terrorism charges in recent years.
oil poured out of the bottom
Not good.
C@tmomma @ #792 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 9:38 am
Why do you equate the Democrats with Labor?
They’re more aligned with the Malcolm Turnbull (if he had a spine) end of the Libs here than they are with the ALP.
Just because they stand to the left of the Repulsivecans does not necessarily mean they are of the left. America has basically two right of centre parties. One centre right and one batshit crazy far right party.
The ALP stands somewhere between the Dems and Bernie Sanders.
JustSayin:
And unbelievably it was a Fox News host (of all media anchors) who pulled Sanders up on that statement.
“The full version of Trump’s envisioned border wall – featuring rarely tested heights cast over almost unimaginable distances – would cost at least $US25 billion, said Ed Zarenski, who teaches construction estimation at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts.”
Jesus. What a misdirection of funds that would be, in a nation which really needs some serious high-speed rail (not to mention all the everyday decaying infrastructure which needs replacing).
Officially, the Department of Defense (DoD) maintains 4,775 “sites,” spread across all 50 states, eight U.S. territories, and 45 foreign countries. A total of 514 of these outposts are located overseas, according to the Pentagon’s worldwide property portfolio.
and unofficially ???
“Undocumented bases are immune to oversight by the public and often even Congress,” Vine explains. “Bases are a physical manifestation of U.S. foreign and military policy, so off-the-books bases mean the military and executive branch are deciding such policy without public debate, frequently spending hundreds of millions or billions of dollars and potentially getting the U.S. involved in wars and conflicts about which most of the country knows nothing.”
All in the name of the people, of course.
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-mystery-military-bases-the-pentagon-doesnt-want-you-to-know-about/
Dan Gulberry @ #841 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 1:26 pm
Don’t you agree that the composition of the Democrat Party is changing? Alexandria Occasio-Cortez used to work for Bernie Sanders. There are, among their number now, since the Mid Terms, many new Democrats who identify as Social Democrats and have policy positions that you would have to agree are, at the very least, Centre Left?
The wall didn’t work in Berlin either, it was knocked down
After several weeks of civil unrest, the East German government announced on 9 November 1989 that all GDR citizens could visit West Germany and West Berlin. Crowds of East Germans crossed and climbed onto the Wall, joined by West Germans on the other side in a celebratory atmosphere.
“Labor would reap great benefit by slamming the LNP as old white racists a lot more than they do and wedging the libs in the cities in seats where racism is poison…”
Indeed. The Libs are playing with fire re ethnic communities in the cities, every time they dabble in racism at whatever level. I’m surprised they don’t take more electoral damage from it.