BludgerTrack’s leadership approval and preferred prime ministership readings have been in limbo since last August’s leadership change, since it was necessary to accumulate a certain amount of data before Morrison-era trends could usefully be generated. I have now finally got around to doing something about this, the results of which can be found through the link below:
This exercise has to contend with the very substantial idiosyncrasies of the various pollsters, of which three produce data that can meaningfully be compared with each other: Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos (there are also a handful of small-sample Morgan results in the mix). This is done by calculating a trend exclusively from Newspoll, determining the other pollsters’ average deviations from that trend, and adjusting their results accordingly. For whatever reason, Newspoll appears to be a particularly tough marker, which means the other pollsters are adjusted very substantially downwards on approval and upwards on disapproval:
Ipsos | Essential | |
---|---|---|
PM approval | -11.0% | -3.1% |
PM disapproval | +8.9% | +8.6% |
OL approval | -5.5% | -1.0% |
OL disapproval | +2.4% | +9.5% |
PM preferred | -4.8% | -0.3% |
“PM preferred” refers to the size of the Prime Minister’s lead over the Opposition Leader in preferred prime minister polling – so Ipsos, for example, records relatively large leads for the Prime Minister in comparison with Newspoll, and is adjusted accordingly.
The job of charting trendlines through the spread of results is complicated by some notable outliers at around the time of the leadership transition. Malcolm Turnbull’s critics on the right are very keen on an Ipsos poll conducted over the last week of his prime ministership, as it is the only evidence polling has to offer that the Coalition’s present dismal position is not entirely down to the avoidable disaster of Turnbull’s removal. After a period of fairly consistent 51-49 results from all pollsters, this poll found Labor’s lead blowing out to 55-45 – and Malcolm Turnbull down nine on approval and up ten on disapproval. However, the BludgerTrack trend is not overly responsive to single poll results, so it records no sudden decline at the end of Turnbull’s tenure – only the levelling off an improving trend going back to late 2017.
Immediately after the leadership change, two pollsters posed questions on preferred prime minister, though not leadership approval. These produced very different results – a 39-33 lead for Bill Shorten from Newspoll, and a 39-29 lead for Scott Morrison from Essential. Newspoll is given a heavier weighting than Essential, so the trend follows its lead in finding Shorten with a very short-lived lead immediately after the leadership change. However, none of the fifteen poll results have replicated a lead for Shorten, so it is entirely possible that the Newspoll result was an outlier and the lead never existed in the first place.
The bigger picture is that Scott Morrison started well on net approval, but has now settled in roughly where Malcolm Turnbull was in his final months; that he is under-performing Turnbull on preferred prime minister; and that Bill Shorten’s net rating, while still not great, has been on a steady upward path since the leadership change.
Barney in Go Dau
Perhaps you could ask Barak Obama ? He reckoned they needed the Secure Fence Act of 2006 👿
This you have got to see!
https://twitter.com/_AlexHirsch/status/1083140191362048000
poroti
says:
Thursday, January 10, 2019 at 11:54 am
Barney in Go Dau
So why do they need a wall?
Perhaps you could ask Barak Obama ? He reckoned they needed the Secure Fence Act of 2006
_______________________
Don’t bring that up poroti, you might actually complicate things and undermine the Trump hate rally.
Sohar @ #744 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 11:50 am
That’s been tried. All you get is abuse as a reply. First. Surely, you, yourself, aren’t so blind that you haven’t seen that?
So, we just don’t bother any more.
nath @ #752 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 11:55 am
So you love the idea of a ‘Big, Beautiful Wall’?
poroti @ #750 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 11:54 am
When did a fence become a wall?
Trump’s would-be wall and Hungary’s fence – along with the British ‘hostile environment’ and discrimination against the Windrush Generation – have one thing in common. They are premised on racist assumptions, fear-mongering and resentments. They endeavour to maintain the privileges of their respective dominant white-skinned castes.
dtt, the completely-reprehensible-grub, is exploiting racism for political reasons. Some things get better. dtt never changes.
Well I know that the Unions in the USA are weakened by vast numbers of illegal workers, 12 million. Construction sites are nothing like they are here. Vast numbers of industries have terrible pay and conditions because of cheap labour. It’s a very real problem that has huge effects outside of the ‘wall’ issue.
nath
The lol part is watching those who lambast the Greens with the claim Greens want “open borders” ,”Let them all come”.
Trump needs 10,000 workers, 10 years and five times the money for wall: experts
Washington: The wall that US President Donald Trump wants to build along more than 1600 kilometres of the US-Mexico border would take an estimated 10,000 construction workers more than 10 years to build, say construction industry experts.
The $US5.7 billion in funding Trump requested during a primetime Oval Office address on Tuesday would stretch only as far as 370 kilometres, according to estimates.
The full version of Trump’s envisioned border wall – featuring rarely tested heights cast over almost unimaginable distances – would cost at least $US25 billion, said Ed Zarenski, who teaches construction estimation at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-wall-would-need-10-000-workers-10-years-and-five-times-more-money-experts-20190110-p50qh9.html
briefly
says:
They endeavour to maintain the privileges of their respective dominant white-skinned castes.
________________________
The vast millions of illegals working for little money across a multitude of industries is doing a much better job of maintaining the caste system over there.
C@tmomma
When the shepherds changed ownership.
@Nath
People are not illegal, the system is.
poroti @ #751 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 7:54 am
And wasn’t that a success!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secure_Fence_Act_of_2006
poroti @ #758 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:02 pm
poroti, your straw man is showing. 🙂
It’s actually the so-called, by those who want to demonise them, ‘illegals’ (as Trump also illegally refers to them), who allow American Citizens to monopolise the better paying jobs and refuse to do the back-breaking jobs the ‘illegals’ are forced to do.
Poroti
So you think an indefinite govt shutdown is a good move for Trump
I think a wall would be futile in any case, but I’m not blind to the outcomes of having 12 million underpaid undocumented workers in the US economy. When you add that to their already low minimum wages and weak unions. Well, go see for yourself.
nath
Not just from the El Cheapo exploited illegal immigrants.NAFTA was signed by Bubba Clinton but it was an inherited Republican ‘plan’ . One aimed in part to smash a couple of the few remaining powerful unions. United Auto Workers for instance.Worked a treat . Production quickly shifted over to exploited Mexican side of the border.
Yes poroti, and it really helped out Detroit!
Rocket Rocket:
It’s not that interesting when you consider how much passage back to Britain would have cost.
PhoenixRed
Hence why the wall is just the usual diversionary tactic by Trump.
Latham is certainly dangerous.
That thoroughly inaccurate manifesto reads credibly which means he will be a shoe-in for the NSW Upper House.
I wonder if he will work some other One Nation person in. That will be more problematic for him because he is not a ” sharing caring people person”.
The great irony is that historically the Republicans were dead against stopping the flow of cheap labour into the USA. It is actually amazing that it took until 2016 until they had a candidate who actually energised their base over the issue.
Barney in Go Dau @ #209 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 10:49 am
Why do we need boat turnbacks, Manus island and Nauru.
The reality is that MILLIONS cross the US/Mexican border. According to Wikipedia illegal immigrants represent 3.5% of the US population. in the Australian context that would mean that there would be about 1 million boat people in Australia.
Now I ask all of you how would YOU respond and critically how would the ALP voters in Longman and Lindsay respond. I would see each of you here arguing with the greens and being tougher than Dutton.
Barney, obviously the current border is not sufficient to stop mass immigration.
The effect of such large scale immigration on US wages and the living standards of the rest of the population is obviously significant.
thing is that the US set up its open door policy in the growth years when the economy was booming, when the full citizens could get good jobs in unionized workplaces and they were happy enough to have Mexicans doing the fruit picking and cleaning. But NOW the existing residents need the jobs and hence immigration on such a massive scale is not sustainable.
GG
I wouldn’t have believed it. This show was made in 1958 and apparently titled The end of the world!
Jorge Ramos: Trump Is the Wall
It’s not just about a physical barrier. He wants to hang an “unwelcome” sign on a nation built by immigrants.
Donald Trump wants more than a wall.
The president, once again, has created his own reality, manufactured a crisis, invented an invasion, criminalized immigrants, made up facts and, in a nationally televised speech on Tuesday, argued for a new wall at the United States-Mexico border. “How much more American blood must we shed before Congress does its job?” he asked from the White House.
We also know that almost half of all undocumented immigrants arrive by plane or with a visa. They come legally as tourists or visitors and simply overstay their visas. The tallest fence cannot stop that.
Nor would a new wall prevent the flow of illegal drugs entering the country, as Mr. Trump claimed in his speech. Most drug seizures happen at ports of entry. And as long as we have more than 28 million Americans regularly using illegal drugs, we will have drug dealers in Mexico and the rest of Latin America moving their products to the most profitable market in the world.
This is about more than just a wall. Mr. Trump promised it in 2015, in the same speech in which he announced his candidacy, the same speech in which he called Mexican immigrants rapists, criminals and drug traffickers. His goal was to exploit the anxiety and resentment of voters in an increasingly multicultural, multiethnic society. Mr. Trump’s wall is a symbol for those who want to make America white again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/09/opinion/jorge-ramos-trump-wall.html
Rocket Rocket:
[‘I sometimes think of the judges who sentenced those people to transportation, and wonder how their own descendants are faring compared to those of the people who were transported.’]
It’s interesting to note how attitudes change. When I was a lad, you didn’t reveal you have convict antecedents but it’s now almost mandatory.
As for the judiciary’s descendants, in the absence of any evidence, I’d hazard a guess that those having convict kin may’ve done better, on the basis that the privileged-class were often profligate, but I can’t take that any further.
In 18th century Britain there were 222 crimes which carried the death penalty, the vast majority of which were crimes against property, known as the “Bloody Code”. The tide changed somewhat in the early 19th century, where judges and juries took the view that the punishment for, say, theft over the value of 5 shillings was out of kilter with the crime, leading to increased transportation in lieu of the death sentence. In the mid-19th century, people like Wilberforce and Dickens did a lot to improve the lot of the poor.
Trump needs the wall so he can place a big beautiful door in it, just as he promissed during the election campaign.
Without the wall where does the door go? Makes sense to me.
This appears to be where it is headed
Tea Pain
Tea Pain
@TeaPainUSA
·
3h
The WALL and MUELLER are quickly becomin’ the same thing for Trump. Cracks are formin’ for wall support, which will serve as good practice for Republicans to turn their back on him when Mueller drops his nuke.
Americans increasingly blame Trump for shutdown: poll
thehill.com
Conservative criticism of AOC that doesn’t focus on her clothes, dance moves or other facile issues.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-shouldnt-approach-her-facts-way-trump-does/?utm_term=.6eb5ad689931
He says in some ways she reminds him of Sarah Palin who was another young (ish) woman who made a big splash in national politics before having her own lack of knowledge exposed. I think the comparison with Palin is harsh – AOC isn’t even 30 yet and has no governing experience. Palin was governor of Alaska at the time she was picked for McCain’s VP candidate.
Greensborough Growler @ #752 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 8:55 am
BRILLIANT!!!
Bill Kristol said Nancy Pelosi was the wall! 😆
Fess
Agree with you re occasio Cortez.
she should knuckle down and do the hard yards getting much needed experience. Although she doesn’t give me a great feeling either.
“Trump’s would-be wall and Hungary’s fence – along with the British ‘hostile environment’ and discrimination against the Windrush Generation – have one thing in common. They are premised on racist assumptions, fear-mongering and resentments. They endeavour to maintain the privileges of their respective dominant white-skinned castes.
dtt, the completely-reprehensible-grub, is exploiting racism for political reasons. Some things get better. dtt never changes.”
Not to mention Australia’s Lib/Lab off sure mandatory and indefinite detention. Howard was ahead of the curve in playing the race card, and Labor have been too gutless to put forward a humane alternative for two decades.
Howard changed this nation – but Beasley and Co and then Rudd were complicit in letting him do it, and now Shorten still can’t bring himself to face down right wing shock jocks and bigots despite many recent opportunities to distance himself and say ‘we are better than this’. Fraser Anning provides the perfect opportunity to say “this is where Morrison, Dutton and Abbott’s fear, smear, hatred and division populism leads to – let’s call this out every time they do it”. The LNP has never called out its own MPs who attend far right rallies and events and re-post these groups’ hatred – but there are a handful who do. Labor should call on Morrison to condemn Christensen, Porter, Molan and others who have form here. Shorten should be calling for the LNP to have a new years resolution to not play the race card and call them out whenever they do.
Cue anti-green spittle spraying raves from right-wing labor stalwarts who think labor needs to play along with racism to win elections.
briefly @ #222 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 11:01 am
Briefly
Yes of bloody course walls are racist, but so are human beings and if you do not at least grasp this you are destined NEVER to understand the course of world politics.
Thanks for calling me a grub. Guess it takes one to know one.
I am observing not calling, and recognise that whenever there is economic stress racism or tribalism comes to the fore. If there was a sever recession in Australia people in NSW and Qld would come to blows. WWI was in no sense a racist war, but it was a tribal/nationalist war. Even WWII was not initially racist.
If you really believe in a fully open border policy everywhere then i sort of admire you but i assume you do understand the impact on yourself and family. For example say Australia took in 10% of its population in the next 10 years, then there would obviously be a need to increase taxes, cut services or both. (Unless you accept Nicholas’s just print money idea). If you are happy to accept a big cut in your pension or income then fine stick to your views, but do not assume everyone else is so altruistic.
By the way acknowledging that there is a human tendency towards tribalism/racism is not being racist. Denying it is just stupid.
So the US tried a ‘wall’ and it didn’t work.
So it makes sense for the US to look at other strategies.
zoomster
If it hasn’t been on TV, Trump won’t know about it.
Interesting how the actions of Clinton or Obama have been wheeled out.
Leaders and governments make mistakes all the time. The question is not who made a bad mistake but whether a subsequent government, armed with all the evidence of previous outcomes, nevertheless insists on doubling or tripling down on the same action. The first is unfortunate and a great lesson for everyone. The second is utterly reprehensible.
sustainable future @ #250 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 11:27 am
Sustainable
It was in fact Keating who first erected barbed wire cages for immigrants. Let us not hide from reality.
I have lots of sympathy for the greens view on this ie that labor and LNP are pretty much in lockstep. it is true.
My issue is simply that i do not believe that societies can adsorb large numbers of people with differences in times of economic stress. when the economy is booming yes they can and very little trouble arises BUT when it starts too fade tensions arise inevitably.
I am all for immigration but think it should be tied to employment – not much point bringing in NEW immigrants if you have not work enough for those already here.
As for ‘The wall’. That has nothing whatsoever to do with border security in this context. It is purely a representation of Trump’s ego and his political objectives. Just like Manus and Nauru continue to be nothing more than vicious political stunts for our government.
Victoria @ #766 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:10 pm
poroti thinks anything anti Labor or anti Democrat is good. It’s why he has found common cause with nath.
TPOF @ #791 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:37 pm
Which is confirmed by the varying definition of what would constitute the wall. It’s just a prop for Trump to energise his base and defy his political enemies.
DaretoTread @ #117 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 10:23 am
I do not!
Australia’s border policy sucks. It takes first-party responsibility for deliberately torturing people to death to avoid some vague notion of third-party responsibility for people choosing, almost always of their own free will (like literally any time they’re not chased onto a boat by people with guns), to undertake a risky boat ride to Australia and occasionally failing in that attempt. It’s a shitty trade-off.
Interesting suggestion.
C@tmomma
says:
Thursday, January 10, 2019 at 12:38 pm
Victoria @ #766 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:10 pm
Poroti
So you think an indefinite govt shutdown is a good move for Trump
poroti thinks anything anti Labor or anti Democrat is good. It’s why he has found common cause with nath.
___________________________
Maybe C@t’s right poroti! Let’s just suspend our critical faculties and play follow the party/leader.
Trump’s campaign advisors have admitted that the wall was merely a device used to keep Trump on message wrt immigration.
C@tmomma
Take this in the spirit of how it is intended. GAGF and please please take umbrage.
TPOF @ #788 Thursday, January 10th, 2019 – 12:34 pm
Yes the Axis of Pipsqueaks on PB do it all the time. For example, one of them has reached back today to an action by the Keating government to tar Labor with forevermore. No mention of the way the Coalition have run with it for much of the subsequent time and exploited it and exacerbated it. Nope, nope, nope, it’s ALL Labor’s fault.
Conservative columnist details Trump’s ‘loveless marriage’ with ‘his’ generals — and why they’re all gone
An ex-Republican columnist described how Donald Trump’s “loveless marriage” with former military leaders has come to a close.
“Like many a loveless marriage of convenience,” conservative Max Boot wrote in a Wednesday night Washington Post column, “the union between President Trump and ‘his’ generals has ended in recrimination and heartbreak.”
Generals, Boot added, all share a similar set of traits that set them apart: preparation and study before acting, a personal honor code, nonpartisanship and a commitment to the United States.
“With his insufferable boastfulness, Trump claimed, ‘I think I would have been a good general,’” the columnist wrote. “Actually, he would never have made it to first lieutenant, because his me-first ethos is so at odds with the military’s stress on service and sacrifice.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/conservative-columnist-details-trumps-loveless-marriage-generals-theyre-gone/