I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.
Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.
Barney in Go Dau @ #139 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 11:21 am
Thanks Lizzie, I enjoyed reading some of the weird laws still on US books. Here are some more (US state & international):
http://www.weirdsexlaws.com/
“The EU fosters vigorous debate within a narrow range of neoliberal policy options.
Democratic socialism is off the table under EU rules.
Reforming the EU into something that is non-neoliberal is a pipe dream – much more of a pipe dream than UK voters reforming UK institutions.”
As with any collective there is going to be a centre and then positions to the extreme of the centre that will, from the centre, appear deviant. The power of the centre will almost always look to exclude or control the deviance.
I’m not using deviant in the excellent and super fun sense, nor in the pejorative sense, just in the sense of so far from the centre the centre is uncomfortable with it, it is outside the centre’s tolerance for ‘good’ variation.
So 1000% you don’t join a collective to advance the deviance, if you are the deviant you are joining the collective for some other reason and if you have any understanding at all you accept that the deviance is going to be challenged or curtailed by the collective.
So wrt to the EU and its neocon capture, the question is whether you can move the centre, or spread the boundaries of good variation, or whether taking your bat and ball and running away to be deviant on your own (highly recommended on the personal level) is the best way to advance your interests.
Obviously if you can stay and do good in the collective you may fail, but if you succeed you have succeeded across a much broader group and done, assuming your deviance is good, far far greater good.
If you look at the EU as a reflection of its group over the last 40 years, of course it has seemed neocon, the whole OECD has been 110% neocon the whole time, who could it possibly not look that way. I think it is a big mistake to assume that is a central feature. Of course with any power balance those that benefit from the status quo are going to resist change, so in places where the failure of the neocon experiment is less obvious you’ll face resistance.
So in terms of the EU and my blurry Sunday morning metaphor, an unimportant weak deviant is probably going to have to leave, unless the forces it is experiencing away from the failure of the neocon experiment are shared broadly.
The you come to the wonder and joy of disruption, or the ‘solution’ of the UK taking there bat and ball and going home to create a socialist paradise out of the EU.
Here I have to declare a real bias against disruption. I think humans and the communities and power structures we build around us are much more suited to incremental change than disruption.
And have a look at the UK structures. At the top you still have a rich and I would argue powerful Monarchy and aristocracy. You then have England and its fragile and potentially explosive relationships with Scotland and Northern Ireland. You can then come back to the massive internal divisions, you might be able to take the UK out of the EU, but you are not going to be able to take the EU out of the UK, in the sense that there will, even after Brexit, be a lot of UK citizens that look a lot more like the EU, than the single old male socialist vision some may have.
If I was in the UK I would NOT be betting disruption will bring me a white bread old male socialism of joy and wonder. I’d be very concerned the disruption will deliver a fairly large swerve to the right and authoritarianism. But that is the danger in disruption and perhaps great risk will deliver great reward. Just I wouldn’t bet on it.
lizzie @ #187 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 11:24 am
Around the back, no. I’ve had cats that would run headlong into the glass though. A few good self-inflicted bonks was all it took before they learned their efforts were fruitless.
Dutton has a gated community inside his head.
😆
dtt
The ABS faithfully reports all of that. It’s not their fault the media concentrates on the headline rate.
Even so, nearly every report you hear or read on unemployment stats will talk about rises/falls in both full time and part time employment over the period – and often include commentary to the effect of ‘…the fall in full time employment has been offset by a rise in part time work.”
The ABS regularly reports on underemployment. It less regularly reports on over employment, which is a pity, as that is often a very interesting insight.
Nicholas @ #191 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 11:29 am
Well, that’s a fascinating argument.
“Democratic socialism is off the table under EU rules… except for this one time when it was.”
briefly
It required a court case from Scotland to clarify the method to revoke.
It is pretty clear the commons is not going to make a decision.
The question then is; is crashing out an allowed option; I bet Scotland will run case to find out.
C@tmomma @ #129 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:50 am
Cat
If you want me 9or anyone) to take you seriously then stop posting this sort of nonsense. i am not Rex and i consider he is in fact an LNP troll here only to cause us to fight between ourselves and generally he is successful because you and others take the bait.
I appreciate your position re the ALP but would advise you to take stock of your views and those who give you ideas, because 90% of the time you do come across as an ALP RW fellow traveller. I suspect that is NOT where ypou started out but it is where you have landed.
Now 5 years ago I would not have called many on here neo groupers but the rise in russophobia is essentially 1955 revisited, and while you may not see it yourself all i see is the SAME arguments used by the NSW right (the groupers who stayed) against the anti Vietnam war protesters. i see and here the SAME arguments, the same fear, the same phobias and the same all the way with LBJ, that was the divisor in the 60s. It was grouper thinking in between 1950 and 1975 and since it now seems a very close parallel I have badged it neo grouperism and you Cat are just as much a proponent as were the groupers keen to suppress the Communist party in alliance with Bob Menzies. I bet your grandfather would pretty much agree with me.
Remember i was THERE. I suspect i am a few years older than you and closer to the 50s than you but i also came from a highly political family and this stuff was the constant discussion in my home from the earliest times. i was personally a dedicated political activist from the age of 10 (when i decided to join the ALP) and first handed out HTV. I was a child but an actively engaged child in the very first anti Vietnam war protests. So in a way my personal cultural experience of the groupers and the ALP and the protest movement is about 5-10 years ahead of my chronological age.
In saying this it is because i am reading on this blog the same sort of language that came from the mouths of the skinheads disrupting the demonstrations (and the journos). Those of you who make comments about flats in Russia could well have been word for word RW types yelling at us protest marchers, when go back to Russia was a common slur made by the skin heads, many of whom were active members of the Ashfield based NAZI party.
https://www.newsclick.in/jharkhand-activists-urge-governor-immediately-stop-adani-power-plant
Nicholas surly you a so happy that DTT has let you know Moscow supports your position.
Putin-Break up of the EU
Tory party – Return of the Empire ( like that is going to happen).
Corbyn – The Glorious revolution ( they work out so well).
frednk says:
Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 12:57 pm
briefly
It required a court case from Scotland to clarify the method to revoke.
It is pretty clear the commons is not going to make a decision.
The question then is; is crashing out an allowed option; I bet Scotland will run case to find out.
There’s probably not enough time for any new cases. As things stand, No Deal Brexit is the status quo, even though very few want such an outcome.
Barney in Go Dau @ #175 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 12:03 pm
2017 Australia 15 centuries
Of these Smith made 6 and Warner 3.
From January 8, 2017 to January 8, 2018, Smith:
Tests: 11 matches, 1305 runs at 81.56. Six centuries. High score of 239
frednk @ #214 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 12:07 pm
Onya Freddie
Such wit and analysis is breathtaking.
dtt’s fixation with “Groupers” betrays the antiquity of their thinking, of their worldview. The Groupers went out of business a long time ago, as did the USSR. Nonetheless, dtt sees the world as a good/evil struggle between the child of the USSR (in reality, the kleptocratic, authoritarian, martial and territorially-expansionist Putin regime) and the rest-of-the-world.
The romantics look to the past. dtt is one such romantic. The rest of us have to square up to the realities of the 21st century and face the future. Reactionaries everywhere are having a lot of trouble with that. The desire to retreat into the past is very strong. It is in every case a road to failure and sorrow; and, too often, the road to bloodshed and upheaval.
yabba @ #217 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 12:09 pm
Well if the team captains and the two best batsmen had not been snivelling low life cheats then they would still be in the team to get a few centuries.
“Onya Freddie
Such wit and analysis is breathtaking.”
I thought it was quite a funny, clever, succinct and elegant summary. Your response is telling.
DaretoTread @ #219 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 9:16 am
If they had been from any other Country they would have been back playing a long time ago.
Just saying!!
briefly @ #220 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 12:15 pm
No Briefly
i see the same words, the same ideas coming from many here.
The cold war is back or are you not aware of trump’s withrawal from the NPT.
keep up to date and stop living in 1990.
yes there are major challenges and they are not the same as 1955 but most on here still think that the world as it existed in 1995 is still reality.
It AINT and sadly we are i think closer to 1935 than 1955 or 1995.
DTT
neo groupers ; russophobia ; phobias ; neo grouperism ; skinheads disrupting the demonstrations; active members of the Ashfield based NAZI party.
I was there; missed all that; I think your training manual for that period might need revising
Ya gotta wonder why the Australian cricketers thought they orta cheat. Why? I suppose it has a lot to do with $.
Disagreeing with any analysis for ‘leave’ that I’ve seen, the remain crowd haven’t made anything close to a case for ignoring the result of a referendum, or more precisely ignoring the votes of all those that voted to leave, nor have they given any reason those voters shouldn’t be entitled to some ‘disruption’ of their own if their victory is stolen from them.
I think a case could be mounted on Russian interference and any clear breach of the rules of the referendum but the remain crowd in general seem so arrogant they don’t think they need to do more than declare their righteousness.
That’s it for the players. Now the attention turns to the selectors!
WeWantPaul @ #222 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 12:16 pm
So is yours.
3 word funnies R Us.
Intellectual power of a 14 year old boy giggling at porn.
Number of Women in LNP parliament could halve based on Pollbludger projections
(UPDATED, thx for corrections)
LNP Women projections < 50%
Gilmore: Ann Sudmalis (retiring)
Robertson: Lucy Wicks
Corangamite: Sarah Henderson
Chisolm: Julia Banks (resigned)
Capricornia: Michelle Landry
Boothby: Nicolle Flint
Ryan: Jane Prentice, 52.5% (lost pre-selection)
Others, projected result
Durack: Melissa Price, 53.7%
Higgins: Kelly O'Dwyer, 54.5% (at risk based on state swings)
Forrest: Nola Marino, 55.2%
McPherson: Karen Andrews, 55.8%
Curtin: Julie Bishop, 63.3% (considered resigning)
Farrer: Sussan Ley, 67.3%
“Intellectual power of a 14 year old boy giggling at porn.”
meh great work, you must be very proud.
have a great day sweetie.
DaretoTread says:
Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 1:20 pm
If you’re seeing Groupers, you are imagining things. They are figments of romantic illusion. The action in politics is not on the left. It is on the right….among the nationalists, the clappers, the supremacists and the racists, the neo-imperialists and the other half-witted reactionaries that infest the discourse. The romantic/pop-left have teamed up with them.
briefly are you absolutely sure that there is no technical method for a postponement of Brexit?
I would assume one possibility is to submit a withdrawal followed 5 minutes later by another notice to leave, dated a few months later?
“If they had been from any other Country they would have been back playing a long time ago.
Just saying!!”
Previous band for other players have been farcical. The Australians were caught out blatantly cheating, not merely bending the rules or stepping over the boundaries a little bit. Longer bans were justified and necessary.
However, in my view, the 1 year bans (9 months for Bancroft) were over the top and disproportionate. Also the ban on first class domestic cricket (given that the local season was over anyway) was way over the top. I think that smith and warner should have been banned from international until the Boxing Day test and neither should be eligible for a formal leadership role in the national team going forward. Bancroft should have been banned from all international cricket until the beginning of October. These would have been the longest bans on record for ball tampering and proportionate to previous sanctions and the actual offences involved.
frednk @ #225 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 12:20 pm
were you freddie boy. I doubt it. if you mean the Moratoriums which were fashionable and standard issue for the 18-25ers, then i guess you were. No prizes, just standard follower behaviour. I am talking 1963/64 helping the draft refusers – Bill White, Simon Townsend. By the time you and the rest of the followers joined the moratorium the hard yards fighting the skin heads were all over.
Not sure when the Ashfield NAZIs closed shop but they were a bit of a concern until the mid 1960s and Special Branch took a VERY active interest. I actually KNOW this via some familyl experience and there was a NAZI cell operating on the Northern beaches – Colloroy I think
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 1:25 pm
briefly are you absolutely sure that there is no technical method for a postponement of Brexit?
I would assume one possibility is to submit a withdrawal followed 5 minutes later by another notice to leave, dated a few months later?
A new notice of withdrawal could be made, with a 2-year time-limit. But such an act would be practically inconceivable. The EU would simply respond by re-stating the current terms. It would solve nothing and simply expose the UK to ridicule.
The UK will have to choose between a No-Deal Brexit, Revocation or May’s deal, which will establish a kind of indeterminate status, where the EU could forever prevent the UK from either re-joining or wholly leaving the jusrisdiction of the EU. They would be an economic territory and tributary of the EU but not a political or legal participant in the Union. This is the stupidity of Brexit.
frednk:
[‘Tory party – Return of the Empire ( like that is going to happen).’]
Well, according to Britain’s Defence Secretary, the glory days of Empire are to return:
https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/postbrexit-uk-looks-to-add-military-bases/news-story/aef30738094c0f0859c3df83a9269872
briefly @ #232 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 12:24 pm
Briefly
Poor grasp of history
In reality the left and the right almost always rise together since the same social pressures generate conditions for radicals of all kinds. You are right that the far right is on the rise, just as in the 1930s but at the same time the left is awakening albeit slowly.
Yes there is overlap and some people switch between far right and far left. economic conditions and insecurity will always do this.
briefly says:
Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 1:07 pm
..
There’s probably not enough time for any new cases. As things stand, No Deal Brexit is the status quo, even though very few want such an outcome.
The position before the Scots ran the case was 27 states had to agree for Britain to revoke. They put an end to that argument pretty quickly.
If the European court rules that the exit isn’t legal; is the European court the highest in the land?
For that matter how will the British supreme court rule?
Britain is part of the EU and they are only not part of the EU if the exit is done legally. If the commons can’t agree; has that happened?
An injunction a day before BEXIT is supposed to happen; and the real fun begins
Mavis Smith says:
Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 1:34 pm
….
Well, according to Britain’s Defence Secretary, the glory days of Empire are to return:
https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/postbrexit-uk-looks-to-add-military-bases/news-story/aef30738094c0f0859c3df83a9269872
Yep the dream is strong in that one.
Well the Brxit is a mess
May’s deal is terrible and should not be supported. Both revookation and a hard brexit are better than that.
A referendum in february seems to me the ONLY plausible path to follow with the voting preferential or if that is too complicated for brits to understand two referenda a fortnight apart.
the first would have a few different options ie leave or stay, postpone
the second would be more specific as to the time/type etc.
The UK parliament (all parties) commit to legislating to implement the referendum outcome
dtt, you’re seeing the current situation through the lens of the past. There are self-styled leftists who have a sentimental attachment to the supposed verities of earlier times. But there’s no point trying to re-fight the past. The 20th century finished some time ago. Attempts to extend it are already obsolete.
This is the main lesson of history. There are reactionaries on both the Left and the Right. They are welcome to the past. The rest of us will claim the future.
The problem for Australian cricket is not that the captain, vice captain and second opener are missing but that the talent pool is very shallow at the moment.
Back in the day the likes of Mike Hussey waited years for his chance.
Jamie Siddons never really got a chance but was a tough cricketer who would have been able to step up.
There are few players like them around in shield cricket today.
We have out of form Test batsmen who won’t get a chance to play long form games before a couple of tests against Sri Lanka at the end of January and in early February.
And if the Marshes and Finch are flicked for those games neither will their replacements .
It’s a shambles of organisation.
frednk, the courts in Scotland just refused to grant a hearing on the basis that revocation wa,s hypothetical. Eventually the ECJ heard the claim and provided an interpretation of the Treaty. It’s not subject to appeal. A withdrawing State can revoke their notice of withdrawal.
An “injunction” that sought to halt the implementation of the Treaty would almost certainly never get up. For one thing, the injuncting party would usually have to indemnify every other party against possible economic losses. This is a practical impossibility.
I reckon this post in Fairfax sums it up:
‘Cummins’ departure clears the decks for the 140-run Lyon-Hazelwood partnership.’
Mavis Smith @ #178 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 12:08 pm
Plus it took the potato over 3 months to come up with his latest nonsense.
A deep thinker ?
Very Doubtful & Sad.
briefly says:
Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 1:48 pm
frednk, the courts in Scotland just refused to grant a hearing on the basis that revocation wa,s hypothetical.
That was the English position. The Scottish courts allowed the case to proceed.
dave, the thing that distinguishes Dutton from nearly everyone else is that he clearly enjoys being a heartless bastard, under the guise of national security concerns. And, when serving in the QPS he would’ve surely played the role of the bad cop.
The ABS only reports underemployment once a quarter.
It reports unemployment once a month.
They really ought to be resourced to give underemployment equal billing. They should be reporting underemployment every month.
Since the early 1990s, after the recession that a certain out of touch dipstick said “we had to have”, underemployment became a thing in Australia. Prior to the early 1990s, it was very rare. It wasn’t really a thing. For the past quarter century, though, underemployment has been a very big problem. For many years now underemployment has been at 8 or 9 percent of the labour force, which is a massive fetter on workers’ bargaining power.
I reckon the Potato is the most disliked politician in the country.
This Guardian article argues that the real purpose of ‘Sky After Dark’ and RW shock jocks like Jones is not to gain a large audience but to influence LNP members to move even further to the right.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/dec/30/changing-channels-the-questionable-influence-of-radio-shock-jocks-and-sky-after-dark
Just for those who had no clue of a “Golden Whistler”. (Included me).
Very handsome bird. 🐦