I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.
Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.
Sohar
Of course not. If you you do not get the seal of approval from the PB Purity Board then it is “Death to the Infidel”.
Looking at the state breakdowns, thanks William, all states, except two show the noted trend, after an initial fall in LNP 2PP, a recovery and then a relapse, except NSW which has a steady upwards trend line after the August change in leadership.
SA also varies from the trend, a more or less flat line in 2PP since August.
…when my son was in Indonesia, a common lament was that they had been colonised by the Dutch, rather than by the British. Apparently Indonesians feel they’ve missed out on something.
zoomster, OK. I did not know that. Thanks for the correction. 🙂
I hope so.
zoomster
Ya don’t reckon that governments around the world would adopt an ‘official’ measure of unemployment that minimises it ?
This is a tough place to argue against some peoples perceived conventional wisdom. No doubt. It takes a thick skin and the ability to walk away from a belligerent poster who will always want the last word.
But almost all posters on this blog offer something, even if you have to scroll past the oceans of vitriol.
And the mountains of cricket..
zoomster:
[‘…when my son was in Indonesia, a common lament was that they had been colonised by the Dutch, rather than by the British. Apparently Indonesians feel they’ve missed out on something.’]
This may have something to do with it:
https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2018/08/23/commentary-how-bad-how-cruel-were-dutch-to-us.html
zoomster,
Are these the types of questions or actual questions you referred to? The information is about the US.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#questions
Sohar @ #144 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 7:28 am
The point is that under the US presidential system, the Greens running a candidate who has no chance of winning, makes it more difficult for the Democratic candidate to win.
The same is true if a non-Republican right wing candidate ran, it would make it more difficult for the Republican candidate.
That is the system as it stands.
That it is the case shows a major flaw in the system.
Knowing this the Greens by running a candidate are making it harder for the Democrat to win and as such are directly helping the Republican candidate to win.
Simon² Katich® @ #157 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 10:38 am
Such optimism!
Mavis, there is a strong argument that Genghis Khan was a reasonable conqueror.
But I take your point. Also, there were many (both within England and in the colonies) who continuously argued for and often commanding better treatment and respect of indigenous peoples. I have been told that documentary evidence of such was used in Wik vs Queensland (or was it Mabo?).
“There seems to be a view here that American/Australian/British elections can only be contested within the right of the political spectrum – right to extreme right. Apparently anyone espousing alternate views – Corbyn, Sanders, etc. – has no right to run these days.”
You’ve got a couple of intertwining and contradictory things going on here.
Firstly the media, dominated by super wealthy and fueled by journos that succeed in the world run by the super wealthy (my point here is one of the problems with journalism is the system by which they fail or succeed in their career, like most career paths in any industry, it is almost certain to deselect, anyone with a drop of leadership or courage, very early) is certainly going to tell anyone who will listen that these dangerous lefties should not be allowed to run anything except a basketball game as inmates of a private prison.
Secondly, particularly in countries with party politics, you have to be able to rise to the top of your party and then win the election to Govern.
So 100% Corbyn is allowed to run. It would just be nice if he won rather than lost.
Sanders is completely different, he isn’t even in the party he wants to lead. So yeah he shouldn’t really be allowed to run as head of that party, it is a fraud if he does. I believe Hillary should say she will run again if Saunders does, just to know him and his wrecker acolytes right out of the race from the start. Lets have Saunders support a progressive black or latino woman candidate, who is actually a democrat. You know something really progressive rather than Saunders usual ego rubbish.
Now a ’50-50 chance’ Brexit will be stopped: Theresa May’s trade minister
Trade minister Liam Fox said there is a “50-50” chance that Brexit may be stopped if parliament rejects the government’s divorce deal with the European Union next month.
“If we were not to vote for that, I’m not sure I would give it (Brexit) much more than 50-50,” Fox, a leading supporter of leaving the EU, told the Sunday Times newspaper.
With three months left until the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on March 29, May’s Brexit deal is floundering, opening up a range of possibilities from a Brexit without a trade deal to calling Brexit off.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/now-50-50-chance-brexit-will-stopped-theresa-mays-trade-minister/
Also the greens run a candidate for PM in Australia every single election, just usually they get about 10% of the vote.
Simon² Katich® @ #163 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 10:45 am
The best way to respect them would seem to be not invading their homeland(s) in the first place. Or failing that, to give all their land (and control of the political apparatus) back to them and then leave unless they say they want you to stay.
WeWantPaul @ #164 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 7:49 am
No one runs a candidate for PM of Australia.
“No one runs a candidate for PM of Australia.”
Everyone runs as a candidate for PM of Australia. Someone who runs as leader of their party is just a whole lot closer to the prize.
Late Riser @ #160 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 10:41 am
Yes, basically the same as the ABS employment survey but a different format. We were surveyed for about 6 months last year. And if your number comes up it’s compulsoty.
Simon² Katich®:
[‘I have been told that documentary evidence of such was used in Wik vs Queensland (or was it Mabo?).’]
Without checking these cases, I’m unsure. But this thread examines the three leading cases that led to the overturning of the doctrine of terra nullius, the enactment of the Native Title Act:
https://aiatsis.gov.au/sites/default/files/docs/research-and-guides/native-title-research/overturning-doctrine-terra%20nullius-the-mabo-case.pdf
Alexander Downer receiving brickbats for ignorance 🙂
lizzie,
on a different topic. I have a Golden Whistler who sits on my deck attacking its reflection on the stainless steel balustrade guide posts. He sings/argues with himself for hours.
Do I discourage this? It must be exhausting for him and potentially take away precious food catching and mate finding time (and he poo’s on my deck). Or do I let him go watch with amazement at the wonders of wildlife?
poroti
Firstly, the decision wasn’t made by governments, but by the international community of statisticians.
Secondly, it’s irrelevant – the same method, adopted globally, and applied consistently, allows accurate comparisons over time and across the world.
As with all polling, as long as the methodology is consistent, it’s the trend that matters.
So (for example) if the stats say we have 5% unemployment now and that we had 10% unemployment (say) a year ago, then there has been a rise in employment.
Similarly, if the stats say that the UK has higher unemployment than the USA (again, for example), then that is a meaningful statement.
The sad tale of Australia’s batting in the last 12 months. 🙁
https://twitter.com/RicFinlay/status/1079171362885840897
“Alexander Downer receiving brickbats for ignorance ”
The visceral response of the right to father bob’s point, which was in essence not that far from the point Yassmin made that ANZAC day, is amazing and entirely in the ‘protest too much’ category.
What I found most disappointing, like with Yassmin, was the centrists who still needed to say he was wrong to say it, or had said it inelegantly, or should have chosen his words better. They were the real cowards in this little mini-saga.
WeWantPaul @ #166 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 10:49 am
The key difference there is that Australia has preferential voting. So that 10% has a chance to come back to Labor (and almost all of it does).
But in the US a 10% Greens vote would blow about a 9.5% hole in the Democratic vote, which is basically a mortal would that ensures the Republican candidate will win (barring an equivalent right-wing ‘spoiler’ candidate who also polls around 10%).
Dutton blaming Turnbull for the parlous position the Tory and Country parties are now in is ludicrous,
Newspoll finding that the 2PP gap was narrowing around the time of the coup. Apart from Labor gaining office, the second best thing will be witnessing Dutton losing his seat, maybe Abbott and Joyce too – all three being a cancer on the polity.
Can someone answer a question about the technical process of Brexit..
What is the actual process of a) asking for a delay and b) cancelling?
Who can actually do this? Can it be done by the executive? Or does it require a vote in Parliament?
Who started the process and how? Who drew up the document and where?
Simon² K
As you probably know, he thinks it’s a rival. Please try to block the reflection.
1. He will exhaust himself.
2. He has no chance of another mate while he fights this imaginary rival.
3. Our birds have enough problems already.
To block the image you need to view the reflection from the same angle as the bird. Or hang netting or other material right along the row.
zoomster @ #174 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 11:02 am
I think the ABS methodology was changed to the international standard during the Hawke years and there was an immediate drop in “unemployment”.
Cud Chewer @ #179 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 11:09 am
I think the EU court ruled that the UK can unilaterally cancel Brexit pretty much at its whim. As to what that looks like inside of the UK itself I have no idea.
lizzie @ #180 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 11:11 am
Doesn’t that mean natural selection will solve the problem, by selecting against individuals that get confused by their own reflections to the extent that they forget to mate?
zoomster –
I totally agree with this sentiment, which you bring out regularly when the topic of whether the unemployment rate is ‘real’ or not comes up, and good on you for that.
However, the context was the report on the accuracy of public perceptions, which reported specifically on the discrepancy between the public’s response to what they think the unemployment rate is vs the ‘official’ rate. When I saw this my immediate reaction was pretty much the same as Late Riser’s – the respondents are quite likely answering about their perception of unemployment/underemployment without the specific constraints of the official measure. Many people will hear, and probably remember, the official unemployment rate as it is reported regularly (unlike the other large discrepancies noted in proportion of the population that is muslim or proportion of foreign born residents) … if people are providing a substantially different figure for their perception of unemployment I would argue that it is actually that a substantial proportion of the respondents don’t think the official figures match up to their personal perception of what ‘unemployment’ is (and they don’t personally care what the official definition is).
ie I think it might be a bit of a stretch to describe that as a glaring example of an erroneous perception per se.
People responding to surveys will frequently answer the question they want to answer, not necessarily literally what was asked. I don’t think that tells us much about whether they are wrong or ignorant, as such, and I wouldn’t, in this context, be banging on about how the unemployment rate is an internationally and historically comparable number as the public wouldn’t give a shit about that.
Greetings from India. The locals are delighted to meet Australians and over the moon about the cricket. Lizzie, I sympathise with your position about the approach of some posters here, although I just stopped reading their posts way back. Your experience might give you some insight into how posters who are not rusted on ALP voters feel, if they dare to express a view that is not 100% aligned to ALP orthodoxy.
Thanks lizzie. I am worried about him. It is not going to be easy covering the balustrade as there are 8 posts. I was delaying doing something; a) hoping it was just a spring thing and b) expecting him to figure it out. But clearly it is now necessary to act.
atm, I let the cats out on the deck. This keeps the bird away while they are there. Dont fret tho’, there is no chance they can catch him. But a cover will need to be fashioned (or stick some masking tape or book cover contact to it).
I wonder if a fake owl or hawk will work…..
a r
Au contraire, that bird has no idea it is his ‘own reflection’. He’s pumped up with “ready-to-mate, repel rivals” hormones like any male in the same state.
Haven’t you ever had a dog or cat who, seeing its reflection in a mirror, nips around the back to find the stranger?
“I totally agree with this sentiment, which you bring out regularly when the topic of whether the unemployment rate is ‘real’ or not comes up, and good on you for that.”
Surely for all sides it is a matter of applied statistics, you just need to know what the number is, what it tells you and what it doesn’t tell you and then treat it accordingly. Although that media isn’t ever going to get over that bar.
Jackol
Given – I wasn’t commenting on the article, but trying to clarify how it works for Late Riser.
It is interesting how often posters who bemoan the Right’s failure to listen to the experts then dismiss the experts when they don’t get the result they want!
Simon K
I once had to try to solve a problem with a kookaburra diving down against a window, and the caller finally worked out that Kooky could only see its reflection from the top of the water tank, and a very small part of the glass needed covering. 🙂
Any major institutional change involves some disruption. Getting into the EU was disruptive. Getting out will be disruptive too. The relevant question is whether the disruption is manageable and worthwhile.
State aid, public procurement, and socialization of industries are all very important policy levers that a sovereign government should be able to use without being second-guessed by an external institution that enforces an inherently neoliberal set of rules.
The UK needs to avoid the fate of Italy’s Marcora Law of 1985, which was suspended in the 1990s and re-introduced in a watered down form in early 2000s. The reason? According to the ECJ, giving workers right of first refusal when a business is up for sale, and having the state provide three quarters of the purchase price, contravened EU rules about competition and state aid.
The EU fosters vigorous debate within a narrow range of neoliberal policy options.
Democratic socialism is off the table under EU rules.
Reforming the EU into something that is non-neoliberal is a pipe dream – much more of a pipe dream than UK voters reforming UK institutions.
I wish the remainers would be pragmatic and understand how power works. They are letting the dogma of the EU limit the UK’s policy options.
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 12:09 pm
Can someone answer a question about the technical process of Brexit..
What is the actual process of a) asking for a delay and b) cancelling?
Who can actually do this? Can it be done by the executive? Or does it require a vote in Parliament?
Who started the process and how? Who drew up the document and where?
Their withdrawal notice can be unilaterally revoked at any time up until the expiry of the notice already given. Presumably, this could be done by the executive acting alone. But that would likely be open to judicial challenge, as the Parliament has already given legislative approval to the notice of withdrawal. In practical political and legal terms, the Commons would be required to instruct the executive to give notice of revocation.
This is the only alternative available to proceeding with Brexit. There is no mechanism for “delay”.
My son, who lives in London and is close to the legal cases relating to Brexit, and who has advised the Commons on the immense legal impact of Brexit, reckons that no-one yet knows if there is a majority in the Commons for anything – for revocation, for No Deal Brexit, or for May’s Deal.
Nicholas @ #193 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 11:29 am
Well said Nicholas
i am amazed at how people here who think they are on the left are so ardently remainer.
I am not at all sure where i sit but i certainly cannot accept the shock horror that comes from the mouths of the elite.
Simon² Katich®
You could try wearing this when outside.
https://partycity6.scene7.com/is/image/PartyCity/_pdp_sq_?$_1000x1000_$&$product=PartyCity/P792408
It’s Time @ #183 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 11:13 am
I think there are in fact a number of separate measures but government always reports only on the one that is most favourable.
It is absurd to count as employed someone who worked two hours in a week or fortnight, so if you want to understand the employment statistics you need to look
1. full time employment rates
2. participation rate
3. hours worked.
max:
[‘Your experience might give you some insight into how posters who are not rusted on ALP voters feel, if they dare to express a view that is not 100% aligned to ALP orthodoxy.’]
Being a poster on this site is at times not a teddy-bear’s picnic, in that they’ll always be someone who will take the opportunity to gratuitously correct you if your argument’s weak, failing to support it with evidence where appropriate, being deliberately provocative. And true it is that some expect one to follow the party line; but this serves to offset somewhat the overwhelming bias of the MSM, particularly Murdoch’s rags. Over the years there have been a number posters who’ve expressed conservative views on this site. If their argument is persuasive (even less), I’ve found that they’re generally treated fairly.
As an example of what is likely to occur if a No Deal Brexit occurs, it’s worth considering the electricity supply. A significant part of the UK supply is delivered by an undersea cable that runs from Holland. It is connected to the EU network. The transmission and sale currently occurs within the EU legal framework. If Brexit goes ahead, that framework will cease to apply, which really means there will be no legal basis for the export and sale of electricity from the EU to the UK. If the operator continues to supply electricity they will be exposed to all kinds of risks under EU as well as UK law.
The result is that no one knows if that electricity will continue to be available from 29 March 2019. For the avoidance of risk, the supplier is likely to cut off the supply of a large part of the UK’s electricity.
There are a myriad of similar examples.
Thank you. Such useful advice is hard to come by.
I have tried walking around on the deck starkers. But the little chap still lets me get very close.
Really, Brexit is an act of economic sabotage of the young by the old. It’s insane. It is a miserly jealousy dressed up as sovereignty.
The same sentiment that motivates climate change denialism – the wish to retreat to the idealised past – also motivates the petty nationalism and the phobias of the Brexiteers, the Trumpists and the other supremacists.
They are entirely detached from reality.
Dutton says he’s no bible basher or RW extremist.
He certainly doesn’t have the tiniest chip of charity in his bones, always thinks the worst of everyone.
Which betrays his inner immorality, his dog-eat-dog attitude to the world.