The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.
There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.
UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.
DB Cooper
says:
Friday, December 28, 2018 at 11:31 pm
Nath,
Obviously. But the same is true for November.
There would be a huge backlash if there were to be separate Senate and HoR elections. No advantage would be gained.
____________________________
Well that would be the nub of it all. How pissed off would people be, and could they remember to be pissed off in November. I wouldn’t hazard a guess. I would suspect that the turn out for the half senate would be very low and it wouldn’t bother most people.
Nicholas,
If you lose an election narrowly, you don’t have to convince many people to change their minds at the next election to win.
If you lose in a landside, you have to convince a lot of people that they made the wrong choice. This will only happy if the government is particularly terrible. People don’t like to admit to themselves that they made the wrong decision.
Sportsbet has betting for next election:
May 2019 …$1.10
March 2019 …$5.00
November 2019…. $101.00
Nath,
I think people would be very pissed off. There is a miniscule chance of it happening.
No matter how stupid the Coalition are, I still believe there are enough sensible people in there to prevent separate half-senate and HoR elections.
nath: “Why is it moronic and crazy to gain an extra six months to reverse the polls?
Morrison gains everything and loses nothing by going in November.”
It would be suicide. First, he doesnt gain an extra 6 months for the senate, he will have to go in June where the voters will be waiting with baseball bats – pissed off a) for making them go to the polls twice in 6 months, and b) for being such a blatantly transparent ploy to hold on to power for an extra few months. It is by far the most likely scenario in which labor gains an absolute majority in the senate. But either way, they are in for a pounding in that half senate election, and in even the best case scenario for them they will command less control than they do now.
So then how does that extra 5 months or so Morrisson bought look for him then? Invariably there will in that time be a barrage of senate inquiries set up to damage the government, censuring motions that the government wont be able to block, and you can forget about any actual legislation getting passed by the senate (that is, anything tabled by the government). Or in other words, the current paralysis and dysfunction of government – but on steroids. In that scenario Id be starting to question whether even Morrisson could survive that 5 months in the PMs chair.
Really?
Why?
Australians are pretty apathetic about politics.
If Scott Morrison wanted to hang on for another six months, he could spin a story about how he wants to scrutinize Labor more thoroughly and spare the country the damage Labor would do blah blah blah and LNP voters would be fine with it, and the voters who don’t like him now would continue to not like him. No matter when the election is held, the LNP combined will probably get a national vote of 30 to 35 percent.
If you think the LNP would get less than 30 percent of the vote under any circumstances, I think you are underestimating how many conservative people there are. There will always be about 30 percent who will vote LNP no matter what.
Only political junkies would care that separate Senate and House elections are an unusual arrangement.
I want the LNP to lose.
I am commenting on what I see as the negligible public opinion impact of a government spinning a yarn about why they think it’s best to delay the House election until the constitutionally latest date and separate the Senate and House elections.
It would be unusual but I doubt that it would be considered so scandalous and beyond the pale that rusted on LNP voters would desert the LNP.
Big A
Even Sportsbet dont think he is that stupid as to go in November.Thats why they have odds of $101.00 for a Nov election.
Of course it might be getting too hard for Morrison and he might want it to end sooner rather than later. It all comes down to the psychology of the man.
steve davis
says:
Friday, December 28, 2018 at 11:48 pm
Even Sportsbet dont think he is that stupid.
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This is what I can’t understand. If he’s facing polling of 45-55 why is it stupid to not go in March of May? Wouldn’t it be stupid to voluntarily go to an election with horrific polling. Wouldn’t it be smart to give yourself six months extra time.
Big A Adrian
says:
Friday, December 28, 2018 at 11:46 pm
nath: “Why is it moronic and crazy to gain an extra six months to reverse the polls?
Morrison gains everything and loses nothing by going in November.”
It would be suicide. First, he doesnt gain an extra 6 months for the senate, he will have to go in June where the voters will be waiting with baseball bats – pissed off a) for making them go to the polls twice in 6 months, and b) for being such a blatantly transparent ploy to hold on to power for an extra few months. It is by far the most likely scenario in which labor gains an absolute majority in the senate.
_______________________________
You can see my earlier posts why I don’t think a half senate election will be disastrous for the Coalition.
Nicholas,
I’ll bet you $100 right now that there aren’t separate senate and HoR elections next year.
It’s a bet I would be very happy to lose.
Hey Matt that is nothing that Boerwar doesn’t already know and what I haven’t already told him. But Attlee had two strikes against him, first he was English and second he was a socialist, so you know in his tiny prejudiced mind, the poor man can do no good. No not even the fact that Britain bankrupted itself fighting off the Nazis wins any respect from his ilk. Perhaps he should have borrowed millions on the never never to fund all those troops Boer… oh wait…. wait.
Nath and Nicholas giving a beautiful demonstration of the Horseshoe Theory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory
DB Cooper
Nath could get another $100 by betting on a November election.
nath @ #1308 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 7:51 pm
Yes, that much is obvious.
If it’s such a good idea, why has every Government since the ’80s avoided it?
Nicholas: “If Scott Morrison wanted to hang on for another six months, he could spin a story about how he wants to scrutinize Labor more thoroughly and spare the country the damage Labor would do blah blah blah”
No, really he couldnt. You clearly underestimate just how cynical the electorate is by now, with politics in general, but especially with this joke of a government. I am in no doubt that calling this split election will be met with a uniform howl of utter derision and contempt by the electorate, and any attempts to spin it as anything other than a blatantly desperate ploy to cling on to power for a few extra months will just make things worse.
The other thing worth noting is that if people are forced to an election in which they know they cannot vote a change of government, they will be more likely to vote against the government. Thus its likely the coalition would receive one of the all time worst half senate results, and labor one of the all time best. And therefore you couldnt rule out labor securing an absolute majority.
Thus its likely the coalition would receive one of the all time worst half senate results,
___________________
that is just not possible, based upon the numbers of coalition senators up for re-election in this possible half senate election. The higher quota means they will actually have a good chance of picking up more seats from PHON, LDP and KAP. Even on a terrible result.
So Not So Briefly can pontificate on the intricacies of the Greek taxation system on the basis of…. wait for it, ‘he knows someone who went on holiday to Greece.’ You could not make that stuff up. Not So Briefly is the gift that keeps on giving, highly amusing, long may he continue to post on here.
Shorten risks causing the greatest havoc by sticking by his promises.
Chris Kenny @chriskkenny
Oh no!! A politician that actually might stick to his promises.The sky is going to fall in.
nath @ #1316 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 8:06 pm
If they don’t get the votes, they don’t get the quota.
How is that not possible?
nath, or those phon, kap and ldp seats could go to labor… a possibility I assume, given how good i expect the labor vote to be in such an election
Briefly is not here, he’s gone off to listen to Blues music in Green haunts and drink whiskey served by bearded hipsters. He will return tomorrow where he will then continue to denigrate the same people he is partying with ‘liblings’ as pseudo-Tories.
Earlwood. I don’t belong to any faction because I’m no longer a member. But this ‘Victorian shit show’ as you put it, just crushed the Tories with a real left agenda. That must make you weep tears of blood! Oh I forget… you were a staffer for Gough. That’s right isn’t it? You have said that in the past? More than once methinks. Lol!
Gee, Not So Briefly and Boerwar do spout some right wing crap don’t they? Makes me laugh out loud some days.
If they don’t get the votes, they don’t get the quota.
How is that not possible?
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Because there is no way the Coalition will not get 2 quotas in each of the states. A quota is 14.3% so they need 28.6% in each state to return 12 of the 13 senators up for re-election. It’s just maths.
nath at this rate, 28% could be quite a challenge for the coalition.
Big A Adrian
says:
Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 12:10 am
nath, or those phon, kap and ldp seats could go to labor… a possibility I assume, given how good i expect the labor vote to be in such an election
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I think those parties will preference the Coalition don’t you think?
ALP have 11 senators up for re-election and 6 greens. I think it’s more likely a high vote for the ALP will just take Green senate seats.
Nath, how can he denigrate that which he is? He is a ciggie paper away from being a Kool Aid drinking Tory, but he’s not Robinson Crusoe on that score. I have never come across so many rabid fogey right wing ‘Labor’ supporters as I have seen on here.
There are 3 reasons why an outgoing government would want separate elections:
1. To keep themselves in longer.
2. To take advantage of a new government likely to under perform in office and thus reduce the vote they receive in the half-Senate election (which only applies when it is the House of Reps that go first).
3. To bring a simultaneous election referendum onto the radar.
Reason 1 is certainly a motivating factor for the current government. Keeping the ALP out seems to be a key driver behind this government.
Reason 2 does not apply to the current government because the half-Senate would be first and Shorten is far more competent than and far less out of touch than Tony Abbott.
Reason 3 is not likely as this government is not the sort to reform the Constitution to remove ways of state governments being tricky with the Commonwealth as the Coalition is more likely to use them.
nath @ #1326 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 8:19 pm
The numbers up for “re-election” is irrelevant, it all comes down to your Party’s vote.
Also Parties no longer control preferences in the Senate.
A separate half-Senate election would also likely help the Greens and minor parties at the expense of the ALP, potentially making the ALP`s Senate team smaller.
Tom the first and best @ #1330 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 8:26 pm
????????????????
The numbers up for “re-election” is irrelevant, it all comes down to your Party’s vote.
_____________________________________
what the hell are you talking about? If the Coalition had 13 senators up for re-election and return 12, which they would, or even 13 then all that matters is the composition of the Senate.
Also Parties no longer control preferences in the Senate.
___________________________
Yes, I meant the voters of PHON, LDP and KAP would more likely preference the Coalition over the ALP.
I’m not saying it is likely to happen. I am saying it wouldn’t make the LNP much more unpopular than it already is. The LNP spins all kinds of implausible yarns all the time and their weighted average vote share in the polls is still 37 percent. There’s a big chunk of the electorate who will vote LNP no matter what.
You are projecting your political junkiedom onto the general public. The claim that separate Senate and House elections would be so scandalous that the LNP would be significantly harmed electorally is not very credible.
@Big A Adrian: Somewhat surprisingly (to me at least), your intuition checks out and mine does not. In concert with the Greens, a good half-Senate showing would give a ALP/Green bloc a majority in the Senate.
I typed up a detailed answer as to why I doubt Labor will make much ground in this half-Senate election, but realized that it had become an essay. So I will content myself with saying that Labor has too many Senate seats up for re-election for a large gain to really be plausible; 2 in Vic, Qld and WA, and 3(!) in Tasmania. Labor’s best bets for a Senate pickup is SA, where the Libs are defending 3 seats (2 of their own, plus Family First’s “inheritance”) to their 1, and NSW, where the Libs are defending 2 seats and they are only defending 1. However, Labor will have serious trouble keeping all three of their Tasmanian Senate seats, likely losing one to JLN or (remotely possibly) a Green.
I strongly suspect that when the dust settles after the next half-Senate election – whether or not its accompanied by a House election – the Libs will be down a net of one Senate seat (their 3rd SA seat), while Labor will be up a net of 3 (PHON’s WA and NSW seats, LDP’s NSW seat and the Libs’ 3rd SA seat, minus their 3rd Tasmanian seat).
This means that the numbers will be 29 Coalition, 29 Labor, 9 Greens (I think they’ll keep all 6 of their Senate seats up) and 9 others. This means that Labor and the Greens will have a blocking majority in the Senate…indeed making Morriscum’s life unpleasant.
But he’ll still be on the Treasury benches until November, with all the (way, way too much) discretionary power our current loose-lawed legal framework grants Ministers.
“Shorten risks causing the greatest havoc by sticking by his promises.”
Lol! That woof from Kenny after Daniel Andrews tactic in Victoria of going…… “we say what we do and do what we say”…..backfired so badly on the ALP?? 🙂
nath @ #1332 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 8:33 pm
But the number of expiring Senators has no bearing on the election itself.
@Nath:
You’re presuming that the ALP will cannibalize the Greens’ vote – when all evidence indicates that it will instead grab votes from the Coalition to their right, while losing a few voters to the Greens at their left. Meanwhile, the Coalition will be bleeding votes to their Right (the various RWNJ micros) and haemorrhaging them to their Left (Labor)…but the structure of seats up for election next does put a practical floor on their Senate tally.
Net likely result, going by the polling: Labor vacuums up a bunch of formerly-RWNJ Senate seats.
That’s a pretty plausible outcome Matt, but the RWNJ’s will be facing a higher quota than last time, so they might just come back to the Coalition anyway. A lot depends on all sorts of minutiae. The performances of all these micro parties now holding senate seats and the CA in SA, they have no defending senators so it could be interesting if they can get a quota.
But, yep, what you outline could happen. but hey the senate is no picnic now, and as you said it’s not going to annihilate the coalition in the senate.
@Barney – On the number of Senators each Party elects in each State, you’re correct. It has no bearing.
On the post-election Senate’s partisan composition, however – the party-IDs of the Senators who were up for election absolutely has a bearing on this!
Matt, I think it all depends whether the ALP can get the 3 quotas in each state, of 43%. If they can get that then they will have a great half senate election. but below that it will be marginal.
Matt @ #1340 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 8:57 pm
And we are discussing a half Senate election.
Barney, I don’t even know what you are talking about.
nath @ #1343 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 9:04 pm
That’s self evident, you can’t even identify dependent and independent elements in the system.
more gibberish that doesn’t mean anything. you must be drunk. again.
Nicholas,
I’m not arguing that it is scandalous to have separate elections.
You claim there would be some benefit to the coalition – I don’t see it.
You claim only political junkies would care if there were separate elections. I disagree. I think it is the politically disengaged who would be more angry about having 2 elections in the same year. Many would be unaware that such a thing was even possible.
nath @ #1345 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 9:12 pm
Stone cold sober as usual and as usual you don’t have the wit to understand very simple words like dependent and independent.
DB Cooper:
Not Nick here, but I agree with him for once. The benefit is simple – another 6 months in office, to sign high-penalty contracts giving money to their buddies, issue more Ministerial directives to push their ideologies, hire more of their mates to mold the APS in their image, and so on.
That’s a real gain – and if they’re going to lose the election whether it’s held in November or in May…why not? Sure, it may mean a few more of them have to go to their owners looking for sinecure consultantcy gigs, but…not like that’s losing much, compared to being a MHR in Opposition.
clem attlee says:
Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 12:10 am
Earlwood. I don’t belong to any faction because I’m no longer a member.
…or, more exactly, never have been a member. Skinheads don’t join Labor. They try to jostle it instead. Fuckwit.