The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.
There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.
UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.
zoomster @ #1246 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 5:41 pm
In the case of Italy they didn’t have a common language. 🙂
I’m going to go and eat prawns, eggplant, greens, pita, olives, taramasalata; drink some red; listen to a blues singer, drink whiskey; catch the train; walk among the young. The singer is an indigenous bloke, great voice, impressive persona, a son of one of mother’s friends….
C@tmomma
Is that because he hopes people will forget his responsibility for Syria and Libya and the arms and $s that ended up in the hands of the head choppers due to his decisions ?
Fascist type Populists have already had their day. The people are turning against them already. Viz the American Mid Term elections.
We can see clearly now what they are about and, hopefully, Australia will again be in the vanguard of a change for the better.
Barney
Still don’t! This is a big area for Italians, and I’m involved in the local soccer club.
One young man I know was brought up by his grandparents, who only spoke dialect at home. He had real trouble learning ‘Italian’ when he went to school – and I assume his English wasn’t that great, either, despite being a second generation Australian.
It causes a big problem when they age, as many native Italians revert to speaking dialect and lose their second and third languages.
Poroti,
You mean like Trump has just done?
I think common language is fairly critical to successful unification and without it everyünified”nation is vulnerable.
I think that that is a bit of an issue with the EU since while the Poms and frogs get to use their languages the rest rarely do.
Moreover I think the most significant thing is a shared experience and acceptance of democracy and a solid understanding that the way to reform is the ballot box. Too many nations in the EU have NOT got a 200 year history of evolving democracy. France, UK, Ireland, Scandinavia and Belgium do have this and Germany more or less but with an unfortunate blip in 1933.
Dear DaretoTread:
May you condense?
This video on European political boundaries from 400BC until 2017 is nearly 12 minutes long, and while the graphics could be improved (e.g. population growth is clumsily shown) it gave me a sense of the sweep of European conflict. It provides some context for the idea of a European Union.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY9P0QSxlnI&feature=youtu.be
(Thank you Boerwar for the link.)
I hear reports of a heat wave in NSW.
26 tops here today.
DTT have you ever heard of a Translator.
They’re pretty clever people who can listen to something and repeat it in a different language. 🙂
Barney in Go Dau @ #1259 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 9:02 pm
Barney
Pretty silly comment because it is the people who need to share language and cultural heritage and a translator does NOT do that.
The Roman empire worked because of a common linga franca as does India because English the common language of most people.
If there are major regionally based language or religious divisions unification has limited chance of success. Until of course there is a common enemy and then very often bods are formed which unify people.
Mavis Smith @ #1256 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 8:55 pm
Why?
DDT,
you obviously haven’t been to India or if you have, you didn’t get far from your hotel! 🙂
Just a political observation. When Turnbull got to 49-51 in his last Newspoll as PM, I imagine Labor went all out in preparation for a tight electoral battle. Unfortunately for LNP they blew off their own foot and now have unplanned leadership with incoherent or inexperienced messages and will be unable to undo the “collateral damage” in the polls of wielding the axe on Turnbull. Meanwhile the ALP remains ready for a tight battle with the enemy still prancing about choosing the colour of their swords. It will be a bloodbath.
ICanCU:
A canny insight, albeit over-eggged somewhat.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1262 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 9:20 pm
Have been there fella and i did get well away from the main drag.
English IS the common language and is used in South India particularly. Every school kid has some English and all government officials.
Sure the villagers may not have it but it is so common that there is ease of communication. Train timetables, universities etc all use English. it is a listed “official” language and widely used. I travelled for three months and had no problems communicating except in the remotest villages and even there there was a always 12 year old keen to discuss the cricket in English.
First of all, the government losing a vote in the lower House on one particular issue is not loss of confidence. A no-confidence vote would never pass. So all that Morrison has to fear from return of Parliament is losing a vote on one or two small bills. Embarrassing but not unexpected and certainly won’t change many people’s votes no matter how its reported.
On the question of going early. What I’m hearing from you guys is the idea of another “mini statement”. Which is really just an early release of election policies. It doesn’t amount to any real budget. Yes, I guess they could do that, but I’m absolutely sure that if they did do that it wouldn’t get reported well and it would dog them. They’d turn up to interviews and get asked “why didn’t you take your spending ideas to a budget session?”. It’ll really suck oxygen.
They’re going to get more mileage out of an official Budget speech, even if the independents get their way on one or two minor issues. Losing a vote will get reported on, but it’ll quickly get lost in the noise. But going to an election early will mean getting bugged with the same questions at every press conference.
And yes, I hope they do go early.
DaretoTread :
[Why?.]
It’s best to keep it simple, short, according to Clem Llyod, a former staffer to G0ugh, who was the inaugural professor of journalism Wo Wololongong— Uni. He was a lovely, kind man, now dead.
DaretoTread @ #1266 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 6:34 pm
It’s actually about 10% of the population and the number that you could have an expansive conversation with is much less.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/28/claim-pm-left-in-the-dark-on-andrew-broad-sugar-baby-scandal-a-long-stretch-albanese-says
Low profile Bil. Just pops up periodically with a positive message. Just right for the times
I assume nobody here thinks there is a prospect of a May half Senate election followed by a November house election?
Morrison should go for a November HoR election. I outlined the benefits of doing that a few days ago.
grimace @ #1273 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 6:54 pm
Despite the fact it’s a completely moronic and crazy idea there are some advocating the idea.
I suppose the fact that it is completely moronic and crazy makes it more likely to be adopted by this mob. 🙂
grimace:
Au contraire. They’ll be…?
Barney in Go Dau
says:
I assume nobody here thinks there is a prospect of a May half Senate election followed by a November house election?
Despite the fact it’s a completely moronic and crazy idea there are some advocating the idea.
_________________________________
Why is it moronic and crazy to gain an extra six months to reverse the polls?
Morrison gains everything and loses nothing by going in November.
Morrison can’t let parliament site again. Morrison can’t let the party room meet again. There is no way he can get to November.
nath:
[‘I outlined the benefits of doing that a few days ago.’]
I’m so happy, you’re so happy with your prediton.
nath @ #1277 Friday, December 28th, 2018 – 7:05 pm
1. They will be struggling financially to run one campaign let alone two.
2. What could they achieve as a minority Government?
3. They’ll get smashed twice.
frednk
says:
Friday, December 28, 2018 at 11:09 pm
Morrison can’t let parliament site again. Morrison can’t let the party room meet again. There is no way he can get to November.
__________________________________
Why? there is no chance that a motion of no confidence will get up. He also recently changed the leadership rules so he’s pretty safe in the party room.
If he wants to be led to his execution early that’s up to him, but I would have though an extra six months to generate something would be better than that.
@nath:
“Why is it moronic and crazy to gain an extra six months to reverse the polls?
Morrison gains everything and loses nothing by going in November.”
Sure. Something might turn up, but baring a Tampa like black swan event (with a 9-11 bonus) holding out to November is most likely to turn my prediction of 123 Labor held seats after the election from my little joke into an actual thing …
Barney in Go Dau
says:
Friday, December 28, 2018 at 11:13 pm
1. They will be struggling financially to run one campaign let alone two.
I wouldn’t have thought a half senate election would require much. particularly since they will only have 13 senators seeking re-election out of 39.
2. What could they achieve as a minority Government?
Maybe not much, maybe something. Six months extra time to turn things around is pretty attractive.
3. They’ll get smashed twice.
Actually I think they’ll do pretty well in a half senate election. As I have said before, I think they will gain 2 quotas, so that’s a return of 12 of the 13 senators. Plus the higher quota means that there is a chance they could pick up PHON, LDP and KAP seats. Even on a bad result they could emerge with 13, 14 or even 15 senators from a half senate election.
Andrew_Earlwood
says:
Friday, December 28, 2018 at 11:14 pm
@nath:
“Why is it moronic and crazy to gain an extra six months to reverse the polls?
Morrison gains everything and loses nothing by going in November.”
Sure. Something might turn up, but baring a Tampa like black swan event (with a 9-11 bonus) holding out to November is most likely to turn my prediction of 123 Labor held seats after the election from my little joke into an actual thing …
___________________________________
Maybe, but it doubles his tenure as PM. If he’s going to lose big either way, double the tenure and give yourself a shot at turning it around.
@ Andrew_Earlwood
If the federal swing replicated the WA one, Federal Labor would win 129 seats.
Nath,
So in your opinion, the coalition has no chance of winning in May, then?
If Morrison doesn’t go early Joyce will almost certainly try to regain Nats leadership.
He can do without that.
The abbott forces will still be active and hewill be at the whim of the crossbench, even if parliament is only set to sit for two weeks before the budget on april 2.
They won’t support no confidence but might feel inclined to rock the boat.
The Guy has an ego like Everest. He won’t want to be seen to be not in charge.
I am tipping March but I concede May is probably just as likely.
November? Nope.
I doubt a split election. The L/NP would get smashed at both elections for their trouble. Secondly it would set Labor up to pull the trigger on a DD, having accumulated a number of trigger bills, and they’d have the plausible excuse of getting the HoR and Senate back in sync.
Even with the most defeatist mindset November should be attractive to him:
Option A. PM for 8 months before being smashed.
Option B. PM for over a year before being smashed.
BW: “Attlee put socialist priorities in the UK ahead of Indian lives in the Raj”
As he should have. After the war Britain was literally on the brink. A British PM”s priority at that time absolutely should be the welfare of the British people, not Indians. The British government had absolutely no business continuing to pour resources into epic imperialist projects on the other side of the world when they could barely feed their own people.
Good lord, so nath’s starting up an argument again which he lost pretty comprehensively last time around.
Another sign of a dishonest poster – it’s the sort of thing ModLib did all the time.
DB Cooper
says:
Friday, December 28, 2018 at 11:24 pm
Nath,
So in your opinion, the coalition has no chance of winning in May, then?
_______________________
Not if the polls stay constant.
zoomster
says:
Friday, December 28, 2018 at 11:26 pm
Good lord, so nath’s starting up an argument again which he lost pretty comprehensively last time around.
Another sign of a dishonest poster – it’s the sort of thing ModLib did all the time.
__________________________________
It’s not an argument that can be lost or won. I am arguing that there is merit going for November. Whether he does or doesn’t is up to him.
Calling me a dishonest poster for suggesting the benefits of a November election for the LNP is just stupid.
Nath,
Obviously. But the same is true for November.
There would be a huge backlash if there were to be separate Senate and HoR elections. No advantage would be gained.
Of course if Morrison did go for November and managed to get the polls to 50/50 and was returned it would go down as a masterstroke. But to suggest such a thing is ‘dishonest’ in rural Victoria.
Another reason not to delay beyond May is that Labor are out campaigning hard in all winnable seats. The L/NP have already experienced one disaster having given Labor the best part of them months to campaign, even going in May gives Labor 5 solid months of campaigning with their candidates.
Im tipping a March election.
zoomster:
And you’re loving it – sobeit.
No, there’s enough support for the LNP in various parts of the country for them to win at least 40 to 50 seats in the 150 seat House no matter how big a landslide loss they suffer. And in practice, in the winner-take-all system that we have in the House, there usually isn’t much difference between being an Opposition with 40 seats and being an Opposition with 70 seats. If the government performs poorly, an Opposition can win government after just one term in Opposition. The claim that losing narrowly one time makes it easier to win the next one three years later doesn’t really make sense because each election is a distinct event, not a cumulative event in which you get extra credit for having almost won last time.
I understand people want the election soon. But that could be another advantage in going in November for Morrison. The number of exploding heads on PB of ALP diehards who self destruct due to frustration at waiting an extra six months might actually tip the election.