Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. The nexus between sluggish wage growth and low unemployment is that the Employer class are happy to employ wage slaves. With the emphasis on ‘slaves’.

  3. @BevanShields tweets

    BREAKING: Andrew Broad has resigned from the Morrison ministry after a woman went on the record about his behaviour on an overseas trip. Story from @CroweDM soon #auspol

  4. Bevan Shields
    ‏
    Verified account

    @BevanShields
    3m3 minutes ago

    BREAKING: Andrew Broad has resigned from the Morrison ministry after a woman went on the record about his behaviour on an overseas trip. Story from @CroweDM soon #auspol

  5. Late Riser

    This morning it appears he has added ‘determined’ to his repertoire.

    Determination and also a touch of “baby filling nappy”

  7. Bevan Shields
    ‏Verified account @BevanShields
    9m9 minutes ago

    BREAKING: Andrew Broad has resigned from the Morrison ministry after a woman went on the record about his behaviour on an overseas trip. Story from @CroweDM soon #auspol

  10. Jonathan Green
    ‏Verified account @GreenJ
    7m7 minutes ago

    It’s an interesting distinction: normally when governments clean off barnacles they’re issues that rankle with voters.
    This time round they’re issues that rankle with the government’s own ‘base’.

  14. As was always likely to be the case, a smaller university willing to sell their credibility.

    I don’t think this will do much to encourage students into the regions.

    Ramsay Centre finds home for western civilisation degree in Wollongong

    University to take up offer of $50m centre after it was rejected by ANU amid concerns about academic freedom

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/17/ramsay-centre-finds-home-for-western-civilisation-degree-in-wollongong

  16. C@tmomma

    Supply and demand has been screwed. Shortage of workers skilled in X , pay higher wages to attract them to your business or get cheap visa worker in ? You can guess which choice is ‘winning’.

  20. timing If the Broad announcement is interesting.

    Hiding it under the cover of Christmas? Or distracting people from labor’s conference.

    ScoMo’s maxim is that any publicity is good publicity so I’m tending to think the latter. Plenty of opportunity to announce on Friday or next Monday if the intention was to hide.

  23. Kay Jay:

    [‘Res ipsa loquitur is a Latin phrase that means “the thing speaks for itself.”]

    I love it when you speak Latin, a beautiful sounding language, though dead save for the odd judge, the odd lawyer, the odd Bludger. Latin or French was complusory learning when I was young. I chose Latin but didn’t do very well at it. But a rudimentary knowledge of it aided me in later life.

  24. I wonder why Andrew Broard didn’t use this self-description in his election campaign last time?

    “I’m an Aussie lad, I know how to ride a horse, fly a plane and f–k my woman. My intentions are completely dishonourable.”

    On a winner there I’d say!

  26. Braking Knews:

    Government announces that Ministers will be accompanied by chaperones at all times they are away from their nominated spouse or partner.

    Unattached Ministers will be forbidden from being in any room with only one other occupant and will be accompanied by at least one chaperone at all times.

    This directive is effective immediately! 🙂

  27. Mavis Smith @ #222 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 11:38 am

    Kay Jay:

    [‘Res ipsa loquitur is a Latin phrase that means “the thing speaks for itself.”]

    I love it when you speak Latin, a beautiful sounding language, though dead save for the odd judge, the odd lawyer, the odd Bludger. Latin or French was complusory learning when I was young. I chose Latin but didn’t do very well at it. But a rudimentary knowledge of it aided me in later life.

    The odd Tridentine Mass.

  32. @sarahgerathy tweets

    I took this photo of Deputy PM Michael McCormack at an event about 10 minutes before Andrew Broad resigned over “sugar baby” scandal . Suspect he and his adviser might have been reading New Idea article about the scandal? #auspol https://twitter.com/sarahgerathy/status/1074460444528599040/photo/1

    @samanthamaiden tweets

    Mid Year ClusterF**K Outlook
    A surplus of family values Nationals MPs who turn out to be …”just like us!” https://twitter.com/samanthamaiden/status/1074463822562226177/photo/1

  33. Mr McCormack said in a statement he had accepted Mr Broad’s resignation and thanked him for his service since his promotion to the frontbench in September.

    Is that the shortest occupation of a ministry post?

  34. lol

    ABC Politics
    ‏Verified account @politicsabc
    5m5 minutes ago

    Mr Broad told the magazine he believes the person making the allegation may have engaged in criminal activity.

    Michael McCormack says “a replacement will be made and announced in due course.”

  35. I did not understood the word ‘clusterfuck’ used by many PBers till now. But after Morrison’s ‘West Jerusalem’ announcement, I understood that. As ratsak talked to ratsak, CoalMo went straight to ‘culsterfuck’ with the announcement that Australia recognises ‘West Jerusalem’ as Israel capital.

  37. Bringing back the 8-hour day would work wonders!!

    Many execs and their companies (incompetent slackers relying on workers charity to cover up their inadequacies), and their stock holders, would go to the wall. Good riddance.

    This sort of worker sacrifice, along with stagnant wages, has been propping up poorly performing companies and squeezing out other staff not willing or able to make these sacrifices. It is not just dodgy, it is out and out theft that is turning into a race to the bottom.

  44. C@tmomma @ #188 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 11:04 am

    Could someone please explain to me why an increase in the projected surplus automatically defaults to tax cuts!?! Whatever happened to better quality government services and increased infrastructure spending?

    ‘Tax cuts’ are the longest words most right-wingers can read. If you give them words longer than 4 letters, or sentences longer than 3 words, and their brains swell up and explode.

  48. SK

    There’s a couple of versions of the Bruce sketch, in one it’s Wollongong. Presumably they changed it because Wollongongites protested.

  50. Whatever happened to better quality government services The Right don’t believe in that stuff

    and increased infrastructure spending? only to garner votes and then only if outsourced to mates.

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